implications of abundant natural gas - energy systems and ... · 29/05/2013 · carbon and energy...
TRANSCRIPT
Implications of Abundant
Natural Gas
JAE EDMONDS AND HAEWON MCJEON APRIL 2013
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Background
The natural gas revolution
3
The application of technologies for accessing “unconventional” gas shales in the United
States has dramatically increased gas production, and estimates of recoverable
resources even more.
And, dramatically reduced natural gas prices.
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Gas and the Global Energy System
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Gas is has been a growing component of the global energy system for some time.
Grubler et al., 2012: Chapter 1 - Energy Primer. In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future.
A brief history of thinking about Natural
Gas Resources
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In the 1990s total gas reserves were thought to be more abundant than oil, but gas
production was expected to peak and decline before mid-21st century, because gas
exploitable resources were economically limited to “conventional” resources.
Unconventional resources were thought to be too expensive ever to be relevant.
In 1997, Rogner’s work on natural resources indicated that “unconventional gas” was
abundant. But, modelers either were slow to incorporate unconventional gas (and oil)
into their thinking or priced them as more expensive than “conventional” resources.
And then a technological
revolution happened.
Key Questions
As application of new production technology spreads beyond the United
States:
How will this change our understanding of the scale and composition
of the evolving global energy system?
How will this affect energy security and international trade?
How will this affect local and regional air quality?
What effect will this have on CO2 and other GHG emissions and the
technologies for their use in the near term and long term?
Globally and regionally
With and without emissions mitigation policies
Implications for regional air pollution
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How Much Gas Is Out There?
How much natural gas is there and how much does it cost?
How much in the larger sense means resource availability
Oil, Gas and Coal
Conventional and unconventional for oil and gas
Coal is just too abundant to divide up that way.
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
oil gas coal
EJ
unconventionalresource
unconventionalreserve
conventionalresource
conventionalreserve
Fossil Fuel Resources
8
How much natural gas is there and how much does it cost?
How much in the larger sense means resource availability
Oil, Gas and Coal
Conventional and unconventional for oil and gas
Coal is just too abundant to divide up that way.
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
oil gas coal
EJ
unconventionalresource
unconventionalreserve
conventionalresource
conventionalreserve
Fossil Fuel Resources
9
How much does it cost?
To help us understand the implications of abundant and inexpensive
natural gas availability for the global energy system, we have
developed three alternative global and regional resource supply
schedules.
Gas Technology Circa 1990 (Gas Tech 1990 or GT1990) this supply
schedule reflects an understanding of gas resource availability circa
1990s.
Gas Technology Circa 2000 (Gas Tech 2000 or GT2000) this supply
schedule reflects an understanding of gas resource availability in the
early 2000s.
Gas Technology Circa 2000 (Gas Tech 2010 or GT2010) this supply
schedule assumes that advanced technologies can be successfully
deployed globally.
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0
5
10
15
20
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
20
05
Ext
ract
ion
Co
st (
20
05
$/G
J)
Cumulative Resource (EJ)
GT1990 GT2000 GT2010
The three gas supply schedules (global)
GT1990 - Conventional Gas Resources Only, ca 1990s
GT2000 - Expensive Unconventional Gas, ca 2000s
GT2010 - Abundant and Inexpensive Gas Resources, 2010 and beyond
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The Global Change Assessment Model
GCAM is a global integrated assessment model
GCAM links Economic, Energy, Land-use, and Climate systems
Technology-rich model
Emissions of 16 greenhouse gases and short-lived species: CO2, CH4, N2O, halocarbons, carbonaceous aerosols, reactive gases, sulfur dioxide.
Runs through 2095 in 5-year time-steps.
Dynamic Recursive
Open Source/Model and Documentation available at: http://www.globalchange.umd.edu/models/gcam/
14 Region Energy/Economy Model
151 Agriculture and Land Use Model
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Gas and the Global Energy
System
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0
50
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Glo
bal
Nat
ura
l Gas
Pro
du
ctio
n (
EJ) GT2000
GT1990
Adding Abundant but EXPENSIVE
unconventional gas to Conventional gas
14
Increased late 21st century production
When gas prices were driven up past present prices
Near-term gas production and use were similar in GT1990 and GT2000.
We will focus on the period to 2050
0
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Glo
bal
Nat
ura
l Gas
Pro
du
ctio
n (
EJ) GT2010
GT2000
Abundant AND Inexpensive gas changes
our understanding of the near term
15
Abundant and inexpensive gas is introduced in North America in 2015
and globally in 2020.
The increase in natural gas production accelerates.
And lowers the price of natural gas around the world.
U.S. N. Gas Price N. Gas Production
Abundant AND Inexpensive gas changes
our understanding of the near term
16
Abundant and inexpensive gas is introduced in North America in 2015
and globally in 2020.
The increase in natural gas production accelerates.
And lowers the price of natural gas around the world.
U.S. N. Gas Price Global LNG Price
168 210 198 99
224 307 121
354 313
0
400
800
1200
2005 2050 GT2000
2050 GT2010
EJ/y
r
trad biomass
geothermal
solar
wind
hydro
nuclear
biomass
coal
natural gas
2050 Global Primary Energy Consumption
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493
1,005 1,007
-50
-25
0
25
50
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
EJ/y
r
net changebatteryCHPsolarwindhydrogeothermalnuclearbiomassliquid fuelgascoal
Abundant and Inexpensive Gas Penetrates
Power Production
Abundant and inexpensive natural gas displaces other energy carriers
in power generation
Where it helps lower generation costs
18
Change in Fuel Mix for Power Generation resulting with Abundant and inexpensive natural gas rather than expensive unconventional gas
Global power sector consumption in 2005 = 185 EJ/yr
Global consumption in 2005 (EJ)
-40
-20
0
20
40
building industry transport electricity
113 152 88 185
EJ/y
rothers
renewables
nuclear
district heat
trad biomass
hydrogen
electricity
biomass
coal
gas
liquid fuel
2050 Global Final Energy Consumption Change
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Gas and CO2 Emissions—
Without Climate Policy
Carbon and Energy
How does abundant gas affect expected greenhouse gas emissions?
CO2, and total climate forcing.
Carbon and energy
Petroleum = ~20 kgC/GJ
Coal = ~27 kgC/GJ
Natural gas = ~14 kgC/GJ
Nuclear, Solar, wind, geothermal, and other renewable energy forms
= ~0 kgC/GJ
Bioenergy is 0 net emissions for the energy sector, but indirect land use
change emissions are accounted.
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Carbon-energy ratios in the larger economy
Average carbon intensities (kgC/GJ):
Natural gas ~14 Petroleum ~20
Coal ~27
Average global 2030 ~17
Regional average carbon-energy ratios in 2010 (kgC/GJ):
Average US ~16
Average China ~22 (modern ~24)
Average India ~16 (modern ~20)
Average W. Europe ~15
Average Africa ~11 (modern ~15)
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0
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5
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20
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GtC
GT2000
CO2 Emissions: Abundant and Inexpensive
versus Expensive Unconventional Gas
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0
5
10
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00
5
20
10
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20
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20
30
20
35
20
40
20
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20
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GtC
GT2000
GT2010
CO2 Emissions: Abundant and Inexpensive
versus Expensive Unconventional Gas
• Virtually no change in Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions.
• Slightly higher in the early years due to increased energy consumption.
• Slightly lower in the later years due to crowding out coal.
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Why did CO2 emissions not decline?
On average natural gas’ Carbon-Energy ratio is
only slightly lower than the average for the world.
Increasing gas backs out both coal and other
competitors, so on average the decline in the Carbon-
Energy ratio is small.
There is a small increase in aggregate energy
use, so there is a small take-back effect from the
increase in system scale.
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Gas and Greenhouse
Emissions—Without Climate
Policy
Gas and Non-CO2 GHG Emissions
How does abundant gas affect expected greenhouse gas emissions?
CO2, and total climate forcing.
Carbon and energy
Petroleum = ~20 kgC/GJ
Coal = ~27 kgC/GJ
Natural gas = ~14 kgC/GJ
Nuclear, Solar, wind, geothermal, and other renewable energy forms = ~0 kgC/GJ.
Bioenergy is 0 net emissions for the energy sector, but indirect land use change
emissions are accounted.
Methane emissions have a (100 year) Global Warming
Potential of
~25 gCO2/gCH4
12% of methane emissions was from natural gas in 2005.
Sources include: emissions from FF, e.g. coal mining, gas
transmissions & distribution, gas venting, etc., (also land use,
agriculture, animal husbandry, waste …)
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-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2050GT2000
2050GT2010
Rad
iati
ve F
orc
ing
(Wm
-2)
250
350
450
550
650750850
Co
nce
ntr
atio
n
(pp
mv
CO
2-e
q)
250
350
450
550
650750850
Co
nce
ntr
atio
n
(pp
mv
CO
2-e
q)
TOTAL RADIATIVE FORCING IS ONLY SLIGHTLY
ALTERED.
Will Abundant Gas INCREASE total GHG
emissions?
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Radiative Forcing
CO2
CH4
N2O
Other Kyoto Gases
SO2
All Other Gases
Net Total
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2050GT2000
2050GT2010
Rad
iati
ve F
orc
ing
(Wm
-2)
250
350
450
550
650750850
Co
nce
ntr
atio
n
(pp
mv
CO
2-e
q)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2050GT2000
2050GT2010
Rad
iati
ve F
orc
ing
(Wm
-2)
250
350
450
550
650750850
Co
nce
ntr
atio
n
(pp
mv
CO
2-e
q)
CO2
CH4
N2O
Other Kyoto Gases
SO2
All Other Gases
Net Total
CO2
CH4
N2O
Other Kyoto Gases
SO2
All Other Gases
Net Total
250
350
450
550
650750850
Co
nce
ntr
atio
n
(pp
mv
CO
2-e
q)
Increased fugitive methane emissions from natural gas extraction.
Reductions in coal use
Reduce cooling from SO2 from coal burning
Reduce fugitive methane emissions from coal mining.
Reduce Black Carbon emissions from coal burning.
Slightly reduced CO2 emissions from reduced biomass land use
change emissions.
Offsetting changes
May 29, 2013 29 Radiative Forcing Difference
CO2
CH4
N2O
Other Kyoto Gases
SO2
All Other Gases
Net Total
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Rad
iati
ve F
orc
ing
Dif
fere
nce
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2050GT2000
2050GT2010
Rad
iati
ve F
orc
ing
(Wm
-2)
250
350
450
550
650750850
Co
nce
ntr
atio
n
(pp
mv
CO
2-e
q)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2050GT2000
2050GT2010
Rad
iati
ve F
orc
ing
(Wm
-2)
250
350
450
550
650750850
Co
nce
ntr
atio
n
(pp
mv
CO
2-e
q)
CO2
CH4
N2O
Other Kyoto Gases
SO2
All Other Gases
Net Total
CO2
CH4
N2O
Other Kyoto Gases
SO2
All Other Gases
Net Total
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Other Considerations
Local and Regional Environmental Quality
The penetration of gas into the market reduces local and regional air
pollutants, e.g. black and organic carbon and sulfur emissions
These reductions confer non-greenhouse environmental benefits.
Ground water has been an issue and needs continued attention.
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DISCUSSION
We have focused on scenarios with no specific climate or energy
policies.
Other researchers have obtained similar results—e.g. Brian
Fisher, IEA.
Interactions with other policies need analysis, e.g. renewable
portfolio standards that protect renewable energy forms from the
market penetration of gas.
While we have not had time to discuss here, Gas Trade Patterns
change significantly, e.g. the USA becomes a small net exporter
While we do not discuss the results here, we found little impact from
abundant gas on the cost of stabilizing climate forcing under
IDEALIZED POLICIES.
Non-idealized policies also need analysis. May 29, 2013 32
SUMMING UP
Natural gas has been increasing its market share for decades
Technologies that make commercially available gas more abundant
and less expensive accelerate this trend
This has major implications for competition among all primary energy
sources; for energy production, transformation, distribution and end
use; energy security; local and regional air pollution; investments in
facilities and infrastructure; supply and value chain interactions within
and among sectors and regions and trade
Gas displaces other fuels but does not significantly alter the overall
scale of the global energy system through 2050
Availability of abundant, less expensive gas through 2050 does not
significantly change
Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions or total radiative forcing, or
The carbon price required in an idealized mitigation scenario
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END