implementing conservation and adaptive learning in times of environmental uncertainty restoring...
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![Page 1: Implementing conservation and adaptive learning in times of environmental uncertainty Restoring Shrublands for Priority Species Nancy Pau, Kate O’Brien,](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070400/56649f0d5503460f94c2148b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Implementing conservation and adaptive learning in times of environmental uncertainty
Restoring Shrublands for Priority Species
Nancy Pau, Kate O’Brien, Stephanie Koch, Suzanne Paton, Dorie Stolley
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Increasing Priority of Shrub habitat
• Shrub- dependent birds showing some of the highest population decline in the Northeast
• Mature forest breeders prefer early to mid successional forests during post fledgling period (Vitz and Rodewald 2006)
• Neotropical migrants shift to early successional habitat in fall (Rodewald and Brittingham 2004)
• New England cottontail became candidate species in 2006
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Management Uncertainties
• What site characteristic best predict successful shrub restoration?
• What combination of treatment options best achieve management objectives?
• Once native shrubs are established, what’s is needed to maintain the habitat?
• Is native shrub restoration feasible and practical?
• How bad are invasives plants to resources of concern?
www.sustainablepractice.org
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8. Update likelihoods, model weights,
utilities (steps 4-5) each time step;
evaluate which models & treatments are ‘winning’
7. Implement & monitor; Summarize
monitoring metrics to determine outcomes
each time step
2. Define objectives; translate to (independent)
monitoring metrics;define outcomes
(what is success?)
5. Attribute likelihoods to all possible outcomes for each model:
N=Models*Trtmt*Metric*Outcome;Calculate expected utilities for trmts
1. Clarify problem
3. Develop treatmentoptions;
attribute values to all possible outcomesN=Trmt*Metric*Outcome
4. Define competing models that capture
uncertainty; assign weights
Adaptive Management: a process for dealing with uncertainty
6. Allocate treatments to multiple
management units; reallocate each time step
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Clarifying the Problem
Three Resource Targets
© Jim Sonia
Two Treatment Schemes or Competing Models
Two Management Scenarios
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Objectives Sub-objectivesMonitoring Parameters
Quality habitat
Bird Use
Provide native shrub habitat for fall migrating birds
Provide native shrubHabitat for a sustainable
pop of New England cottontail
Preserve biological diversity and ecological integrity
Weight gain of birds migrating through
Berry biomass and Availability through migration
Structure, Cover
Bird use through migration(target species/abundance/
richness)
How birds use the sites(prey, host species, time budget)
Clarifying the Objectives:
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+
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-
+
-
+
+
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Matrices
High Intensity
Low better NEC P/A
Low better NEC P/A
High betterNEC P/A
High better NEC P/A
Low Intensity
Decision
Utility1.0
0.1
1.0
0.1
1.0
0.1
1.0
0.1
Probability0.5
0.5
0.8
0.2
0.7
0.3
0.4
0.6
Monitoring data
Defining Competing Models
E(U) = 0.622
E(U)=0.424
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Grass to Shrubs Enhance Existing Shrubs
Low Intensity
High Intensity
Low Intensity
High Intensity
Parker River x x
Great Meadows
x x
Rachel Carson x x
Rhode Island x x
Allocate Treatments Schemes
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Monitor, Implement, Monitor
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Updating the Model
Field LowShrub Low
Model Weights
Low Medium
Initial 0.5 0.5
Next time step 0.93 0.07
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8. Update probability, weights, utilities (evaluate
which models is ‘winning’
7. Implement & monitor; Summarize
monitoring metrics to determine outcomes
each time step 2. Define objectives; monitoring metrics
5. Attribute probability and utility
1. Clarify problem
3. Develop treatmentoptions
4. Define competing models that capture
uncertainty; assign weights
Project Timeline
6. Allocate treatments to multiple
management units; reallocate each time step
Aug 2007 Jan 2008
Feb - Aug 2008
14 meetings
Fall 2008
Jan 2009 to Jan 2011
28 meetings in 3 years!
Developed protocols
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Lessons Learned:
• Model as a tool to help us think through the process– Good modeler who understands habitat management is key to success
• A comprehensive framework for working with complicated issues with a lot of uncertainty= helps managers break down their problems and identify what’s driving the response.
• Developed a better project when would have otherwise; really understand the ecosystem processes and relationships
• Financial and Technical support need to be flexible
• Extremely labor intensive; managers and biologists need to play key role in entire process
• Process can be frustrating (Iterative). Definitely helpful to take Modeling and SDM course at NCTC.
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Products to Date:• Monitoring protocols
– Vegetation (point intercept, line intercept, robel pole) SOP– Berry production (Adam Smith)– Tiered bird surveys during migration (CJ Ralph, Klamath Bird
Observatory)
• Draft excel model• Draft Access database• Ecological Integrity Index (NatureServe)
Deliverables
Future Products:• Effectivness of Treatment techniques
• Various herbicide applications• Supplemental planting• Prescribed burning
• BMPs for various site conditions (start of Expert System)
©Glen Tepke