impacts of weather, climate and climate change on the electricity sector
DESCRIPTION
This session will explore climate vulnerability in the energy sector and the role weather/ climate data can play to increase resilience. This session is sponsored by Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP).TRANSCRIPT
ImpactSImpactS of Weather, of Weather, Climate and Climate Climate and Climate
Change on the Change on the Electricity SectorElectricity Sector
Laurent DUBUS, EDF R&D
Thanks to my colleagues Marta Nogaj, Sylvie Parey, Viviane Leboucher, Joël Gailhard, Anne
Dupeyrat and Thierry Jouhanique
© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 20092
Weather, climate and the electricity sector management Weather, climate and the electricity sector management
Means, distributions and extremes of climateparameters affect all
the activities
© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 20093
Management of the Offer/Demand balanceA complex and multi-scaled problem
Weather & Climate
Production UnitsHeterogeneity
EnvironmentalRules
Clients & Prices
volatility (Markets)
Electricity can not be stocked
Offer/Demand balance Optimization
Demand forecasts
Power Pricesforecasts
Hydro-ElectricityProduction forecasts
RenewablesProduction forecasts
Stocks management(coal, fuel, oil)
Networks management
Maintenance scheduling
© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 20094
Electricity Demand forecasting : why is it soimportant ?
Daily to weekly, monthly and seasonally : need to estimate future power demand in order to manage power production and to forecast market electricity prices
Power demand
Temperature
Temperature anomaly
In France, power demand is highly dependent on temperature. in winter : -1°C dT 1700 MW of extra production (2100 MW in 2009)in summer : +1°C dT 400-500 MW of extra production
February 2005 courtesy www.rte-france.com
© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 20095
Demand / Today:forecasts using temperature & cloud cover
Use of Météo-France & ECMWF deterministic and probabilistic forecasts
… integrated in demand forecasting tools, to allow
the management of production units plannings
buy & sell decisions on electricity markets
© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 20096
Winter HDDs (15 oct-14 april) with an 18°C threshold
The yearly average number of HDDs decreases for all the models but the amplitude of the decrease depends on models, scenarios and regions
2050-2000 (mean of all models)
~ -10% on France by mid 21st century ~ -25% on France by the end of 21st century
IPCC A2 scenario
2100-2000(mean of all models)
Average HDD (year2000)
Demand / Tomorrow:Evolution of HDDs in France
∑=
=
−°=04/14
10/15)18(
j
jTCHDD
© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 20097
Demand / Tomorrow: Impact on demand : case study for Agen (SW of France)Demand / Tomorrow: Impact on demand : case study for Agen (SW of France)
Simulations for futur :• A2 Scenario, ARPEGE model• Mean differences between 2070-2100 and 1960-1990• Agen nearest grid point
Climate parameters for demand in buildings• 2m temperature• Solar flux• Relative humidity
Temperature increaseNo trend on solar flux
Relative humidity reduces in summer
Agen - Scenario A2
Case study
An office building with heating and cooling needs
Impact of climate evolutions for the same building (no renovation considered) :
• Decrease of heating needs• Increase of cooling needs
• Differences (in %) are similar to the actual ones between Agen and Strasbourg
Heating - 58%
Cooling + 64%
~700 km
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Good winter !Dry spring / earlyand quick melting
Drought & heatwave
Floods …
Daily variations of french hydro power production capacity in 2003
Effects of a warm year on the arrival of water in dams stocks
Water resources : a strong interannual variability & a forecasting challenge
© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 20099
Hydro / TodayPower production forecasts
SERVICES
Providing of real-tilehydro-meteo data for
operating Real Tim
eD to D
+8Several
weeks
•Daily hydro-meteorological bulletins (6 days a week)
•Warning on detection of exceededthresholds or flood
•Warning in case of dangerous weatherphenomenon (storm, snow …)
•Water temperature forecasts bulletins
Short term forecasts
Monitoring & assistance 24h a day
•Dams inflow forecasts
•Forecasts of France hydro-power production capacity
•Lowest water levels forecasts
Long term forecasts
Hydrometeo Centers
Adaptation to the operating
needs
TOOLS
OBSERVATIONS
1200 points
MODELING (Hydrology-Water Temperature
And/or forecaster’s expertise
QUANTITATIVE FORECASTSAir Temp, Precips, Wind
4 AIN-VALSERINEDate de la prévision
20% 60% 90% Max MoyJ 0 5 22 7J+1 0 16 33 14J+2 0 17 28 14J+3 5 16 31 14J+4 3 14 24 11J+5 5 17 34 16J+6 3 12 15 9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
J J+1 J+2 J+3 J+4 J+5 J+6
60%20%90%MaMo
19/02/99BASSIN:
© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 200910
Hydrological model
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1-janv 1-févr 1-mars 1-avr 1-mai 1-juin 1-juil0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1-jan 1-feb 1-mar 1-apr 1-may 1-jun 1-jul
Flow
(m3/s
)
Q obsQ mod
Cumulated inflow on the melting period
Archives T, Precip
Observations(Temp, precipitations,
pression …)
Inflow forecasts
Production management
tools
Probabilized inflowdistributions
500
600
700
800
900
Inflo
w(m
m)
0.0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1.0
Hydro / TodayLong term (seasonal) forecasts can be improvedHydro / TodayLong term (seasonal) forecasts can be improved
Tomorrow : longer lead times forecasts ?
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Hydro / tomorrow La Loire in 2050-2060Hydro / tomorrow La Loire in 2050-2060
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
mois
Qm
inte
rann
uel (
m3/
s)
gien 1971-1998 gien enveloppe 70% gien médian
Higher winter flows (floods ?)
Earlier and stronger low water levels (-40%)
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12mois
Tmoy
inte
rann
uelle
(°C
)
Actuel enveloppe 70% médian
Abut 50% of the air temp anomaly in found in water temp
Flow at Gien
Water temp @Dampierre
PresentFuture mean
Dispersion (6 simulations)
© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 200912
Winter
Autumn
Summer
Spring
Relative change of water flow between 2046/2065 and 1970/1999 (scenario SRES A1B, ARPEGE model)
Julien Boé, CERFACS
Hydro / tomorrow Hydro / tomorrow
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Wind speed and wind power production forecasting
RMSE-France
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UV10 Hybrid downscaling
Winter
UV10 Large scale simul.
Multi-model mean change of 10m average windspeed and anomaly vectors2046-2065 (Ref 1971-2000)
UV10 Statistical downsc.
Impacts of climate change
Summer
Julien Najac, CERFACS
Relative change (%)
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Wind power production (inshore & offshore)
Solar (thermal & PV)
Marine energies
Pollution monitoring and atmospheric dispersion modeling
Rising / future needsRising / future needs
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Summary & ConclusionsSummary & Conclusions
By the past we learnt to work with weather forecasts for
Demand forecasts
Hydropower and reservoirs' management
Today we need observed data and forecasts
Climatological data, weather forecasts & climate scenarios
Locally and globally
For many variables (temp, precip, wind, heat fluxes, sea level …)
With quantification of uncertainties
For designing & building facilities, and operating them
The rising use of renewables implies a rising importance of weather, water and climate parameters (marine & atmospheric)
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Synthesis: expected impacts at the end of 21st
centurySynthesis: expected impacts at the end of 21st
century
Key need :
Projections in the near future (now to 2030-2040)
at regional scales
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Monthly to seasonal and annual time scale : a technical challenge, a major financial interestMonthly to seasonal and annual time scale : a technical challenge, a major financial interest
Example : during a cold wave in January with lakes full
should I use the water to produce nowexpecting that precipitations in spring and autumn will fill them again
or should I buy energy on the market and keep the water to face a dry summer ?
Demand forecasts
Resource forecasts
Production needs
Production capacities
$
?
Key need :
Better climate, power demand and production capacities forecasts @(15 days to several months) lead time
Figures: ECMWF
Thank you Thank you for for your your attentionattention
Contact:
EDF R&DDépartement Mécanique des Fluides, Energies et EnvironnementGroupe Météorologie Appliquée et Environnement Atmosphérique6 Quai Watier - BP 4978401 CHATOU CEDEX
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