impacts of weather, climate and climate change on the electricity sector

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ImpactS ImpactS of Weather, of Weather, Climate and Climate Climate and Climate Change on the Change on the Electricity Sector Electricity Sector Laurent DUBUS, EDF R&D Thanks to my colleagues Marta Nogaj, Sylvie Parey, Viviane Leboucher, Joël Gailhard, Anne Dupeyrat and Thierry Jouhanique

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This session will explore climate vulnerability in the energy sector and the role weather/ climate data can play to increase resilience. This session is sponsored by Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP).

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ImpactSImpactS of Weather, of Weather, Climate and Climate Climate and Climate

Change on the Change on the Electricity SectorElectricity Sector

Laurent DUBUS, EDF R&D

Thanks to my colleagues Marta Nogaj, Sylvie Parey, Viviane Leboucher, Joël Gailhard, Anne

Dupeyrat and Thierry Jouhanique

© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 20092

Weather, climate and the electricity sector management Weather, climate and the electricity sector management

Means, distributions and extremes of climateparameters affect all

the activities

© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 20093

Management of the Offer/Demand balanceA complex and multi-scaled problem

Weather & Climate

Production UnitsHeterogeneity

EnvironmentalRules

Clients & Prices

volatility (Markets)

Electricity can not be stocked

Offer/Demand balance Optimization

Demand forecasts

Power Pricesforecasts

Hydro-ElectricityProduction forecasts

RenewablesProduction forecasts

Stocks management(coal, fuel, oil)

Networks management

Maintenance scheduling

© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 20094

Electricity Demand forecasting : why is it soimportant ?

Daily to weekly, monthly and seasonally : need to estimate future power demand in order to manage power production and to forecast market electricity prices

Power demand

Temperature

Temperature anomaly

In France, power demand is highly dependent on temperature. in winter : -1°C dT 1700 MW of extra production (2100 MW in 2009)in summer : +1°C dT 400-500 MW of extra production

February 2005 courtesy www.rte-france.com

© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 20095

Demand / Today:forecasts using temperature & cloud cover

Use of Météo-France & ECMWF deterministic and probabilistic forecasts

… integrated in demand forecasting tools, to allow

the management of production units plannings

buy & sell decisions on electricity markets

© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 20096

Winter HDDs (15 oct-14 april) with an 18°C threshold

The yearly average number of HDDs decreases for all the models but the amplitude of the decrease depends on models, scenarios and regions

2050-2000 (mean of all models)

~ -10% on France by mid 21st century ~ -25% on France by the end of 21st century

IPCC A2 scenario

2100-2000(mean of all models)

Average HDD (year2000)

Demand / Tomorrow:Evolution of HDDs in France

∑=

=

−°=04/14

10/15)18(

j

jTCHDD

© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 20097

Demand / Tomorrow: Impact on demand : case study for Agen (SW of France)Demand / Tomorrow: Impact on demand : case study for Agen (SW of France)

Simulations for futur :• A2 Scenario, ARPEGE model• Mean differences between 2070-2100 and 1960-1990• Agen nearest grid point

Climate parameters for demand in buildings• 2m temperature• Solar flux• Relative humidity

Temperature increaseNo trend on solar flux

Relative humidity reduces in summer

Agen - Scenario A2

Case study

An office building with heating and cooling needs

Impact of climate evolutions for the same building (no renovation considered) :

• Decrease of heating needs• Increase of cooling needs

• Differences (in %) are similar to the actual ones between Agen and Strasbourg

Heating - 58%

Cooling + 64%

~700 km

© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 20098

Good winter !Dry spring / earlyand quick melting

Drought & heatwave

Floods …

Daily variations of french hydro power production capacity in 2003

Effects of a warm year on the arrival of water in dams stocks

Water resources : a strong interannual variability & a forecasting challenge

© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 20099

Hydro / TodayPower production forecasts

SERVICES

Providing of real-tilehydro-meteo data for

operating Real Tim

eD to D

+8Several

weeks

•Daily hydro-meteorological bulletins (6 days a week)

•Warning on detection of exceededthresholds or flood

•Warning in case of dangerous weatherphenomenon (storm, snow …)

•Water temperature forecasts bulletins

Short term forecasts

Monitoring & assistance 24h a day

•Dams inflow forecasts

•Forecasts of France hydro-power production capacity

•Lowest water levels forecasts

Long term forecasts

Hydrometeo Centers

Adaptation to the operating

needs

TOOLS

OBSERVATIONS

1200 points

MODELING (Hydrology-Water Temperature

And/or forecaster’s expertise

QUANTITATIVE FORECASTSAir Temp, Precips, Wind

4 AIN-VALSERINEDate de la prévision

20% 60% 90% Max MoyJ 0 5 22 7J+1 0 16 33 14J+2 0 17 28 14J+3 5 16 31 14J+4 3 14 24 11J+5 5 17 34 16J+6 3 12 15 9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

J J+1 J+2 J+3 J+4 J+5 J+6

60%20%90%MaMo

19/02/99BASSIN:

© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 200910

Hydrological model

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1-janv 1-févr 1-mars 1-avr 1-mai 1-juin 1-juil0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1-jan 1-feb 1-mar 1-apr 1-may 1-jun 1-jul

Flow

(m3/s

)

Q obsQ mod

Cumulated inflow on the melting period

Archives T, Precip

Observations(Temp, precipitations,

pression …)

Inflow forecasts

Production management

tools

Probabilized inflowdistributions

500

600

700

800

900

Inflo

w(m

m)

0.0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1.0

Hydro / TodayLong term (seasonal) forecasts can be improvedHydro / TodayLong term (seasonal) forecasts can be improved

Tomorrow : longer lead times forecasts ?

© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 200911

Hydro / tomorrow La Loire in 2050-2060Hydro / tomorrow La Loire in 2050-2060

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

mois

Qm

inte

rann

uel (

m3/

s)

gien 1971-1998 gien enveloppe 70% gien médian

Higher winter flows (floods ?)

Earlier and stronger low water levels (-40%)

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12mois

Tmoy

inte

rann

uelle

(°C

)

Actuel enveloppe 70% médian

Abut 50% of the air temp anomaly in found in water temp

Flow at Gien

Water temp @Dampierre

PresentFuture mean

Dispersion (6 simulations)

© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 200912

Winter

Autumn

Summer

Spring

Relative change of water flow between 2046/2065 and 1970/1999 (scenario SRES A1B, ARPEGE model)

Julien Boé, CERFACS

Hydro / tomorrow Hydro / tomorrow

© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 200913

Wind speed and wind power production forecasting

RMSE-France

© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 200914

UV10 Hybrid downscaling

Winter

UV10 Large scale simul.

Multi-model mean change of 10m average windspeed and anomaly vectors2046-2065 (Ref 1971-2000)

UV10 Statistical downsc.

Impacts of climate change

Summer

Julien Najac, CERFACS

Relative change (%)

© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 200915

Wind power production (inshore & offshore)

Solar (thermal & PV)

Marine energies

Pollution monitoring and atmospheric dispersion modeling

Rising / future needsRising / future needs

© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 200916

Summary & ConclusionsSummary & Conclusions

By the past we learnt to work with weather forecasts for

Demand forecasts

Hydropower and reservoirs' management

Today we need observed data and forecasts

Climatological data, weather forecasts & climate scenarios

Locally and globally

For many variables (temp, precip, wind, heat fluxes, sea level …)

With quantification of uncertainties

For designing & building facilities, and operating them

The rising use of renewables implies a rising importance of weather, water and climate parameters (marine & atmospheric)

© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 200917

Synthesis: expected impacts at the end of 21st

centurySynthesis: expected impacts at the end of 21st

century

Key need :

Projections in the near future (now to 2030-2040)

at regional scales

© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 200918

Monthly to seasonal and annual time scale : a technical challenge, a major financial interestMonthly to seasonal and annual time scale : a technical challenge, a major financial interest

Example : during a cold wave in January with lakes full

should I use the water to produce nowexpecting that precipitations in spring and autumn will fill them again

or should I buy energy on the market and keep the water to face a dry summer ?

Demand forecasts

Resource forecasts

Production needs

Production capacities

$

?

Key need :

Better climate, power demand and production capacities forecasts @(15 days to several months) lead time

Figures: ECMWF

Thank you Thank you for for your your attentionattention

Contact:

[email protected]

EDF R&DDépartement Mécanique des Fluides, Energies et EnvironnementGroupe Météorologie Appliquée et Environnement Atmosphérique6 Quai Watier - BP 4978401 CHATOU CEDEX

© EDF Energy Week 2009 - The World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 30 - April 2, 200920

Who we are Visit www.edf.com

A European energy leader with a worldwide presence

Within a context of market opening, the EDF Group is positioning itself to become a leadingenergy company in Europe.

The EDF Group is among the key players in the field of electricity generation, distribution and supply in Europe. Managing a generation mix with a capacity of 125.4 GWe, it provides energies and services to 42.1 million customers throughout the world, including 36.2 million in Europe. The EDF Group is made up of Electricité de France, parent company (EDF SA), and a network of 75 affiliates and investments established in Europe and around the world.

EDF and the Group network carry out energy-related activities focused on the core businesses of generation, trading, transmission, distribution, supply and services.

The EDF Group is committed to a strategy of corporate responsibility, successfully reconcilingeconomic performance, social equity and respect for the environment.

In 2004, the EDF Group's consolidated sales amounted to €46.9 billion.

R&D Division ~2000 people