impacts of the safe routes to school program on walking and cycling
TRANSCRIPT
Impacts of the Safe Routes to School Program on Walking and Bicycling
Noreen McDonald
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill1
Why do we need to understand children’s travel?
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Predicting Adult Travel
Infrastructure Investments
Physical Activity Opportunities
Shift to Automobility
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Auto
Walk/Bike
School Bus
Transit
US Mode to School, 5-18 year olds
Source: McDonald, et al. 2011. AJPM 41(2): 146-151.
SRTS Goals
• “enable and encourage children to walk and bicycle to school”
• “make bicycling and walking to school a safer and more appealing transportation alternatives”
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SRTS by the Numbers
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Funding
$1.2 Billion
Schools
Source: McDonald, et al. 2013. AJPM 45(4): 401-406.
1 in 5
Research Question
• Do SRTS programs affect the proportion of children walking and bicycling to school?
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Research Design
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Randomized Controlled Trial
Quasi-experimental
• 4 states• 801 schools• 2007-2012
Approach
Proportion Walking and Bicycling to School
SRTS Interventions
School Characteristics
Neighborhood Characteristics
Time Period
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tiititit DZXSRTSfy ,,,
Data
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Walking and Biking to School
SRTS Interventions
• 4Es• Engineering• Education,
Encouragement• Enforcement
Data: Measuring SRTS
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% Walk Bike
SRTS
Step Function%
Walk Bike
SRTS
Linear Function
Time Time
% Walk Bike
SRTS
Combined
Time
Presence (1/0)
Number of Years +
Presence
Number of Years
Data
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Walking and Biking to School
SRTS Interventions
School and Neighborhood
• US Dept of Education• Census• WalkScore
Methods: Functional Form
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Fractional Logit
+
-
• Predictions inside (0,1)• 0 & 1• Marginal effects
• Unbalanced panel
)exp(1
)exp(
X
XY
Source: Papke and Wooldridge, 2008; Papke and Wooldridge, 1996
Walking and Biking to School
0%
10%
20%
30%
BeforeSRTS
0.1-1.0years
1.1-2.0years
2.1-3.0years
3.1-4.0years
4.1-5.0years
>5.0years
After SRTS 22Source: McDonald, et al. 2015. JAPA 80(2).
Results: SRTS Program Impacts
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0.8
0.9
1.2
1.2
3.2
-1
-2 0 2 4
Presence
# of YearsEducation &
Encouragement
Enforcement
Engineering
Presence
# of Years
Presence
# of Years
Proportion Walk/Bike
Source: McDonald, et al. 2015. JAPA 80(2).
Results: SRTS Program Impacts
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0.8
0.9
1.2
1.2
3.2
-1
-2 0 2 4
Presence
# of YearsEducation &
Encouragement
Enforcement
Engineering
Presence
# of Years
Presence
# of Years
Proportion Walk/Bike
Education and Encouragement• 0.9 point increase
per year• Over 5 years, a
relative increase of 25%
Source: McDonald, et al. 2015. JAPA 80(2).
Results: SRTS Program Impacts
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0.8
0.9
1.2
1.2
3.2
-1
-2 0 2 4
Presence
# of YearsEducation &
Encouragement
Enforcement
Engineering
Presence
# of Years
Presence
# of Years
Proportion Walk/Bike
Source: McDonald, et al. 2015. JAPA 80(2).
Results: SRTS Program Impacts
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Enforcement
• No statistically significant effect
0.8
0.9
1.2
1.2
3.2
-1
-2 0 2 4
Presence
# of YearsEducation &
Encouragement
Enforcement
Engineering
Presence
# of Years
Presence
# of Years
Proportion Walk/Bike
Source: McDonald, et al. 2015. JAPA 80(2).
Results: SRTS Program Impacts
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0.8
0.9
1.2
1.2
3.2
-1
-2 0 2 4
Presence
# of YearsEducation &
Encouragement
Enforcement
Engineering
Presence
# of Years
Presence
# of Years
Proportion Walk/Bike
Source: McDonald, et al. 2015. JAPA 80(2).
Results: SRTS Program Impacts
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0.8
0.9
1.2
1.2
3.2
-1
-2 0 2 4
Presence
# of YearsEducation &
Encouragement
Enforcement
Engineering
Presence
# of Years
Presence
# of Years
Proportion Walk/Bike
Engineering
• 3.2 point one-time increase
• Relative increase of 20%
Source: McDonald, et al. 2015. JAPA 80(2).
Policy Implications
• SRTS program associated with more walking and bicycling
• Mainstream SRTS programs
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Source: The Atlantic
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Declining licensure & mobilityImpacts and explanations
Millennial Travel
Image Source: New York Times
Image Source: The Atlantic
The Millennial Economy: Links between Transport and Work for a New Generation
Image Source: https://www.sccsc.edu/client/NewsDetail.aspx?id=9381
Changing Nature of Workforce Transition & Role of Transport as Barrier/Facilitator
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Tradeoffs between Environmental Benefits and Social Exclusion: Are There Risks to the Downturn in Driving?
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Which groups have seen largest declines?Are needs being met?
http://media.salon.com/2013/08/boomerang_babies_money_jobs.jpg
Children’s Travel
34Image Source: http://www.perey.com/images/social_networking.jpg
Walking and Biking
Health
Physical Activity+ +
Pollution Intake
? -
Air Quality &Physical Activity