impacts of open arctic to specific regions by: jill f. hasling, ccm chief consulting meteorologist...
TRANSCRIPT
Impacts of Open Arctic to Specific Regions By: Jill F. Hasling, CCM
Chief Consulting Meteorologist – MatthewsDaniel WeatherSeptember 2014
OPEN ARCTIC RECORDS
Since 2007, Summer Open Arctic records are set at
3 year intervals.
Multi-year ice lasts through the summer.
Ice is concentrated on the Canadian side of the
Arctic Ocean and has disappeared from the
Eurasian Arctic waters and coasts.
COMPARISON OF MEDIAN ICE EXTENT
DIFFERENCE OF ICE CONCENTRATION IN MARCH 2012 AND AUGUST 2012
ARCTIC ICE GROWTH FROM 2012 TO 2013
DRILLING
What does that mean for drilling in the Chukchi Sea
and Kara Sea?
CHUKCHI SEADATE WHEN CHUKCHI SEA BECOMES
NON-ICE COVERED 2007 - 2013
ChukchiSea
July 16, 2013
ChukchiSea
August 7, 2012
ChukchiSea
July 8, 2011
ChukchiSea
July 19, 2010
ChukchiSea
July 13, 2009
ChukchiSea
August 31, 2008
ChukchiSea
July 18, 2007
CHUKCHI SEADATE WHEN CHUKCHI SEA MARGINAL
ICE ZONE RETURNS 2007 - 2013
ChukchiSea
November 6, 2013
ChukchiSea
November 3, 2012
ChukchiSea
November 14, 2011
ChukchiSea
October 28, 2010
ChukchiSea
November 5, 2009
ChukchiSea
November 10, 2008
ChukchiSea
October 28, 2007
KARA SEADATE WHEN KARA SEA BECOMES
NON- ICE COVERED 2007 - 2013
KaraSea
July 28, 2013
KaraSea
July 3, 2012
KaraSea
July 2, 2011
KaraSea
August 22, 2010
KaraSea
August 7, 2009
KaraSea
August 18, 2008
KaraSea
September 1, 2007
KARA SEADATE WHEN KARA SEA MARGINAL ICE
ZONE RETURNS 2007 - 2013
KaraSea
October 22, 2013
KaraSea
November 27, 2012
KaraSea
November 9, 2011
KaraSea
October 29, 2010
KaraSea
November 1, 2009
KaraSea
October 13, 2008
KaraSea
October 25, 2007
OPEN ARCTIC MEANS MORE STORMS ALONG THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
OPEN ARCTIC
From 2000 to 2010, about 1,900 cyclones churned
across the top of the world each year, leaving warm
water and air in their wakes—and melting sea ice in
the Arctic Ocean.
When you narrow the search down to cyclones that
occurred directly over the Arctic Ocean, you find
more than 200 to 300 storms per year
Data from Arctic buoys reporting surface air temperatures and sea level pressure were used to create
sparse storm tracks from 1950 to 1972. Buoys also captured the data used to create the more abundant
storm tracks from 2000 to 2006. Credit: NASA.
1950 - 1972 2000 - 2006
Russia Canad
a
Green
land
Russia Canad
a
Gre
enla
nd
MORE STORMS MEAN…
More storms mean more snow. This means a colder
atmosphere as sun’s radiation is reflected back into
the space.
1999
/200
0
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
126,000,000128,000,000130,000,000132,000,000134,000,000136,000,000138,000,000140,000,000142,000,000144,000,000146,000,000
WINTER SNOW EXTENT NORTHERN HEMISPHERE (km2)
TRACKS OF POLAR LOWS IN THE SUMMER
OBSERVED WAVES
Reviewing the Observed Waves in the Chukchi Sea
and the Kara Sea, you see that when the ice
retreats the wind fetch increases. If you assume
that the near zero wave heights indicate ice, you
can see on the following charts that the drilling
season could be longer depending on your drilling
location.
1979-1988 1990-1999 2000-2012
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE CHUKCHI SEA (JULY - NOV.)
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE KARA SEA (JULY - NOV.)
1979-1988 1990-1999 2000-2012
Year Date of Ice Retreat Return of the Marginal Ice Zone Chukchi Sea
2013 July 16,2013 November 6, 2013
2012 Aug 17, 2012 Nov 3, 2012
2011 July 9, 2011 Nov 15, 2011
2010 July 19. 2010 October 28, 2010
2009 July 13, 2009 Nov 5, 2009
2008 August 31, 2008 Nov 10, 2008
2007 July 18, 2007 October 28,2007
CHUKCHI SEA
Dates of Ice Free/Freeze
UpKara Gate
West Side of Novaya
Zemlya
Return of Marginal Ice
Zone to Kara Gate
Return of Marginal Ice Zone West
Side of Novaya Zemlya
2013 July 29 July 29 Nov 11 Oct 25 2012 June 12 July 4 Nov 28 Nov 26 2011 June 22 July 2 Nov 19 Nov 92010 Aug 11 Aug 23 Nov 21 Oct 292009 July 20 Aug 7 Nov 30 Nov 12008 Aug 17 Aug 20 Nov 30 Oct 132007 Sept 1 Aug 18 Nov 20 Oct 25
KARA SEA
FORECAST FOR 2014
Chukchi Sea Kara Sea
Ice Retreat July 18, 2014 July 25, 2014
Return of Marginal Ice Zone October 25, 2014 October 25, 2014
CHUKCHI SEA
July 18, 2014 July 25, 2014
KARA SEA
July 25, 2014 August 4, 2014
FORECAST FOR 2015
Chukchi Sea Kara Sea
Ice Retreat July 25, 2015 August 4, 2015
Return of Marginal Ice Zone November 2, 2015 October 30, 2015
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