impacts of climate change on the sheries at northwestern ......case studies 1! pacific herring and...
TRANSCRIPT
© National Film Board of Canada
© Max Bakken © Carly Wignes
Impacts of climate change on the !sheries at Northwestern coast of BC :
Impacts, resilience and adaptation potential
Lauren Weatherdon Changing Ocean Research Unit Research Assistant, NF-UBC Nereus Program
Dr. William W.L. Cheung Director, Changing Ocean Research Unit Co-Director, NF-UBC Nereus Program
Dr. Yoshitaka Ota Co-Director, NF-UBC Nereus Program Senior Research Fellow
Dr. Rashid Sumaila Professor, Fisheries Economic Research Unit, UBC
Dr. Vicky W.Y. Lam Postdoctoral research fellow Sea Around Us & Nereus Program, UBC
Northwestern BC coastal adapta2on workshop (21 October 2015)
Climate change impact on marine resources
§ ↑ Sea temperature; § ↑ acidifica2on; § Δ ocean current paDern; § Δ salinity; § retreat of sea ice; § ↑ coastal hypoxic & oxygen min. zone;
§ ↑ sea level.
Physical change in the ocean
• Physiology; • Growth; & • Body size.
INDIVIDUAL
• Distribu2on; • Abundance; & • Recruitment.
POPULATION
• Species composi2on; • Invasion/ex2nc2on. COMMUNITY
• Produc2vity; & • Species interac2on. ECOSYSTEM
Biological / ecological change in the ocean
Impact to fisheries Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of
BC Implica2on
Cheung et al., Glob. Change Biol., 2010; as visualized in the IPCC Report (2014).
CHANGE IN MAXIMUM CATCH POTENTIAL (2051-‐2060 COMPARED TO 2001-‐2010, SRES A1B)
<-‐50% -‐21 to -‐50% -‐6 to -‐20% -‐1 to -‐5% No data 0 to 4% 5 to 19% 20 to 49% 50 to 100% >100%
Climate change, marine biodiversity, and fisheries
Evidences of CC impact Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of
BC Adapta2on
Cheung et al., Glob. Change Biol., 2010; as visualized in the IPCC Report (2014).
CHANGE IN MAXIMUM CATCH POTENTIAL (2051-‐2060 COMPARED TO 2001-‐2010, SRES A1B)
<-‐50% -‐21 to -‐50% -‐6 to -‐20% -‐1 to -‐5% No data 0 to 4% 5 to 19% 20 to 49% 50 to 100% >100%
Climate change, marine biodiversity, and fisheries
Evidences of CC impact Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of
BC Adapta2on
Outline
• Background; • Evidence of the impacts of climate change on fisheries;
• Projected impact on Northwest coast of BC;
• Historical responses; • Adapta2on; • Recommenda2on.
Evidences of CC impact Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of
BC Implica2on
Evidences of climate change impacts on fisheries in this region
• Coast-‐wide hake biomass surveys indicate that their northern limit has extended during the 1990s due to warm temperatures;
• Reappearance of sardines in BC waters; recently, collapse of sardines due to overfishing and CC;
• Increase in SST results in decline of eulachon biomass (Moody, 2008);
• Smaller salmon size due to ocean acidifica2on; • Warm Blob; • Algal boom threatens gillnet fleet.
Evidences of CC impact Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of
BC Implica2on
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125°0'W
125°0'W
130°0'W
130°0'W
135°0'W
135°0'W
55°0
'N
55°0
'N
50°0
'N
50°0
'N
0 200 400100 300KilometersF
!! Sample communities
!! First Nation communities
Sample domestic fishing areas
First Nations' domestic fishing areas
BC's exclusive economic zone (EEZ)
British Columbia
Climate change, marine biodiversity, and fisheries
~100 First Nations
12 First Nations sampled
7 treaty groups sampled
Evidences of CC impact Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of BC Implica2on
TunaHalibut
EulachonFlounder and sole
ChitonsShrimp and prawns
UrchinsMussels
RoundfishSalmon
CrabsDogfish and skates
HerringTrout
RockfishBarnacles
ScallopsSea cucumbers
LingcodSculpinsOysters
ClamsSturgeonGreenling
AbalonePerch
Sardines
Latitudinal shift (km decade Թñ)
Func
tiona
l gro
up
or s
peci
es
Model
RCP 2.6
RCP 8.5
N
ï� 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Low-emission High-emissionScenarios
TunaHalibut
EulachonFlounder and sole
ChitonsShrimp and prawns
UrchinsMussels
RoundfishSalmon
CrabsDogfish and skates
HerringTrout
RockfishBarnacles
ScallopsSea cucumbers
LingcodSculpinsOysters
ClamsSturgeonGreenling
AbalonePerch
Sardines
Latitudinal shift (km decade Թñ)
Func
tiona
l gro
up
or s
peci
es
Model
RCP 2.6
RCP 8.5
N
ï� 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Latitudinal range shifts within BC’s EEZ
Evidences of CC impact Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of BC Implica2on
125°0'W130°0'W135°0'W
55°0'N
50°0'N
125°0'W130°0'W135°0'W
55°0'N
50°0'N
Species richness (2000)
0
1 - 10
11 - 2
0
21 - 3
0
31 - 4
0
41 - 5
0
51 - 6
0
61 - 7
0
71 - 8
0
81 - 9
0
91 - 1
00
0 150 30075Kilometers
0 150 30075Kilometers
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Number of species lost or gained by 2050
(b)
(a)125°0'W130°0'W135°0'W
55°0'N
50°0'N
125°0'W130°0'W135°0'W
55°0'N
50°0'N
Species richness (2000)
0
1 - 10
11 - 2
0
21 - 3
0
31 - 4
0
41 - 5
0
51 - 6
0
61 - 7
0
71 - 8
0
81 - 9
0
91 - 1
00
0 150 30075Kilometers
0 150 30075Kilometers
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Number of species lost or gained by 2050
(b)
(a)
Impacts to biodiversity within British Columbia’s waters
World map adapted from Wikipedia.
Evidences of CC impact Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of BC Implica2on
Pacific herringGreen sea urchin
SalmonPrawn and shrimp
Red sea urchinSea cucumberPacific halibut
RockfishGeoduck and horse clam
Sablefish Groundfish
Pacific razor clamCrab
Intertidal clam Heiltsuk intertidal clam
Pacific sardine
−50 −40 −30 −20 −10 0 10 20 30 40Change in relative catch potential (%)
Com
mer
cial
Fis
hery
Scenarios RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5
Change in rela:ve catch poten:al (%)
2003: ~74% of landed revenue; 2050: Revenue reduced by ~90%.
Low-emission High-emissionScenarios
Pacific herringGreen sea urchin
SalmonPrawn and shrimp
Red sea urchinSea cucumberPacific halibut
RockfishGeoduck and horse clam
Sablefish Groundfish
Pacific razor clamCrab
Intertidal clam Heiltsuk intertidal clam
Pacific sardine
−50 −40 −30 −20 −10 0 10 20 30 40Change in relative catch potential (%)
Com
mer
cial
Fis
hery
Scenarios RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5
Pacific herringGreen sea urchin
SalmonPrawn and shrimp
Red sea urchinSea cucumberPacific halibut
RockfishGeoduck and horse clam
Sablefish Groundfish
Pacific razor clamCrab
Intertidal clam Heiltsuk intertidal clam
Pacific sardine
−50 −40 −30 −20 −10 0 10 20 30 40Change in relative catch potential (%)
Com
mer
cial
Fis
hery
Scenarios RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5Impacts to First Nations’ commercial catch
Evidences of CC impact Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of BC Implica2on
Pacific herringGreen sea urchin
SalmonPrawn and shrimp
Red sea urchinSea cucumberPacific halibut
RockfishGeoduck and horse clam
Sablefish Groundfish
Pacific razor clamCrab
Intertidal clam Heiltsuk intertidal clam
Pacific sardine
−50 −40 −30 −20 −10 0 10 20 30 40Change in relative catch potential (%)
Com
mer
cial
Fis
hery
Scenarios RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5
Change in rela:ve catch poten:al (%)
Low-emission High-emissionScenarios
2012: Hold 50% of sardine licenses and catch alloca2ons. 2050: Manila and liDleneck clams expected to remain neutral or increase.
Pacific herringGreen sea urchin
SalmonPrawn and shrimp
Red sea urchinSea cucumberPacific halibut
RockfishGeoduck and horse clam
Sablefish Groundfish
Pacific razor clamCrab
Intertidal clam Heiltsuk intertidal clam
Pacific sardine
−50 −40 −30 −20 −10 0 10 20 30 40Change in relative catch potential (%)
Com
mer
cial
Fis
hery
Scenarios RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5Impacts to First Nations’ commercial catch
Evidences of CC impact Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of BC Implica2on
-25.8%
-25.8%
-21.1%
-15.2%
-7.9%
-6.6%
-5.8% -4.2%
-6.6%
-27.8%
-27.8%-27.4%
-22.0%
-8.2%
-4.9%
-7.9%
High-emission
Low-emission
Scenario
Evidences of CC impact Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of BC Implica2on
Percentage change in catch poten:al at different communi:es under climate change
The impact of climate change on BC’s staple seafood supply & Prices
% change in catch poten:al
% change in price per tonne
Sockeye salmon -‐21% +21
Chum salmon -‐10% +10
Sablefish -‐15% +11
• 10 staple seafood spp in BC, the net change in price caused by climate change could cost us up to $110 million a year
Evidences of CC impact Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of BC Implica2on
Outline
• Background; • Evidence of the impacts of climate change on fisheries;
• Projected impact on Northwest coast of BC;
• Historical responses; • Adapta2on; • Recommenda2on.
Evidences of CC impact Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of BC Implica2on
Traditional v. “Western” scientific fisheries management
First Nations’ traditional strategy or tool Similar “Western” methods
Selective fishing Targeted fisheries and size-selective gear
Goal-oriented harvesting Quota-based harvests
Spatial management, or “area licensing” Limited entry
Clam gardens Mariculture
Monitoring Monitoring; stock assessments
Seasonal migrations and rotational harvests Rotational or seasonal closures
© Grant Callegari and the Hakai Beach Institute
Evidences of CC impact Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of BC Implica2on
How have coastal First Na@ons historically responded to change within marine ecosystems?
• Employed a variety of resource management strategies, such as tradi:onal clam beds, spa:al management, and goal-‐oriented harvests, based on tradi2onal knowledge;
• Reinforced sustainable management systems and increased resilience through social ins:tu:ons;
• Established legal frameworks for joint-‐management of resources.
Backround Impact to fisheries Historical response
Impact to NW coast of BC Adapta2on
Case studies
1 Pacific herring and herring spawn-on-kelp fisheries - Conflicts with other stakeholders; - Instead of re-opening, it’s better to establish Joint-
management agreements & maintaining commercial herring roe closures.
2 Intertidal clam fisheries
3 Salmon fisheries
Backround Impact to fisheries Historical response
Impact to NW coast of BC Implica2on
How might traditional !sheries management strategies and knowledge be used to respond to climate change?
2b: Climate-resilient pathways Case study #1: Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii)
EEZ
WCVI
Strait of
Georgia
Central
Coast
Haida
Gwaii
North
Coast
� � � � � � �Change in relative catch potential (%) for Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii)
125°0'W
125°0'W
130°0'W
130°0'W
135°0'W
135°0'W
55°0'N
55°0'N
50°0'N
50°0'N
45°0'N
45°0'N
0 175 35087.5Kilometers
P a c i f i c O c e a n
28 to 49% cumula2ve decline projected coastwide for herring.
1: IMPACTS TO FISHERIES? CONTEXT 2a: HISTORICAL RESPONSES? 2b: PATHWAYS? IMPLICATIONS
- First Nations Leadership Council (2006)
1. Traditional clam bed mariculture; and
2. Resource-sharing agreements.
Case study #2: Intertidal clams
(Augus2ne and Dearden 2014; Groesbeck 2014)
. . .if First Nations develop their own systems for sharing, it provides an opportunity to design appropriate management systems and address province-wide issues.
“ ”
4 x butter clams 2 x littleneck clams
Evidences of CC impact Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of BC Implica2on
Case study #3: Salmon
17 -‐ 29%
34 -‐ 44% decline in Chinook and pink salmon, with highly variable es2mates for sockeye (-‐4 to -‐37%).
3 -‐ 13% decline in coho and chum salmon along the North and Central Coasts, with poten2al to mi2gate declines.
© Putman et al., Curr. Biol.
cumula2ve decline in catch poten2al projected coastwide for all salmon.
Examples of successful joint-management frameworks: • Nisga’a Fisheries Program: monitoring and
management of local salmon stocks;
• Nuu-chah-nulth Tribal Council’s involvement in managing stocks on the west coast of Vancouver Island;
• Skeena Fisheries Commission; and the • Fraser River Aboriginal Fisheries Secretariat.
Evidences of CC impact Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of BC Implica2on
IMPLICATIONS
Challenges and opportunities for conservation and management
CHALLENGES
Increased or new harvest opportunities through range shifts;
OPPORTUNITIES Mitigation opportunities through Indigenous and traditional knowledge and joint-management; and
Projected declines suggest increased competition between fishers; Stocks likely to face multiple environmental and anthropogenic pressures, requiring effective approaches to manage for multiple stressors and competing stakeholders; and Latitudinal trends suggest an unequal distribution of benefits and impacts.
Legal precedents exist supporting integration of Indigenous knowledge and management.
Evidences of CC impact Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of BC Implica2on
Poten@al adapta@on strategies:
• Resource sharing agreements;
• Local mariculture;
• Joint-‐management frameworks.
Evidences of CC impact Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of BC Implica2on
Recommenda@ons: • Federal & provincial governments need to work with interna2onal community;
• Government needs to eliminate harmful subsidies;
• Policy and management regimes need to be put in place;
• All stakeholders work together to reduce oil spills and pollu2on;
• Reduce carbon footprint;
• Consumer behaviours need to modify for climate change & challenges.
Evidences of CC impact Historical response Background Impact to NW coast of BC Implica2on
§ Lauren Weatherdon, Dr. Rashid Sumaila, Dr. William Cheung, Dr. Yoshitaka Ota, Megan Moody
§ Fraser Basin Council
§ Vancity
§ Nereus Program
§ Sea Around Us, Fisheries Economic Research Unit
Acknowledgement
Contact: [email protected]
© Putman et al., Curr. Biol.