Impacts from a warming climate can cascade downstream

Increase fire intensity

Increase erosion andsedimentation

Decrease summer flows and increasestream temperature

NetMap Tools

Export to Google Earth

Differentiate amongdifferent types offish habitat andtheir sensitivities to:

-increased/decreased flow-thermal loading/temp-landsliding/debris flow-sedimentation

Predict shallow landslide potential, export to Google Earth, and identify overlaps w/habitats

Less concern More concern

Red=higher riskBlue = lower risk

Predict debris flow potential, export to Google Earth, and identify overlaps w/habitats

Red=higher riskBlue = lower risk

An area of higher concern

Use NetMap toquickly identifyoverlaps betweenhigh debris flowpotential andhigh qualityhabitat

Local areas of high risk forhabitat impacts could leadto increased protection atthose locations

ESI, working with William Elliot (USFS, Rocky Mountain Research Station) has integrated WEPPSurface (and road surface) erosion into NetMap (road, hillside, and post fire erosion)

Areas of higher potential road surface erosion (overlaps with fish habitat?)

NetMap contains many watershed parameters and analysis tools that are potentiallyuseful in evaluating the implications of climate change

-aquatic habitat type, sensitivity-stream temperature-fire severity (Flammap etc.)-post fire erosion-stream sedimentation-stream flow-road erosion

Two approaches:

1) Climate predictions (GCM) are ‘downscaled’ for air temperature (summer, winter), stream flow (summer), and wildfire severity etc. and imported into NetMap to quantitatively forecast impacts related to climate change (this requires further tool development);

or

2) A heuristic decision support approach - existing parameters and tools are used to map where in a watershed climate change would have the greatest impacts

-increasing fire intensity and erosion -increasing channel sedimentation -increasing summer stream temperature -decreasing summer flow

Begin by predicting fish habitat potential using a variety of NetMap tools

Higher quality habitat

Create customfish habitatmodels

Flame length (Flammap)

Prelim

Next, examine how fire intensity (current or future climate) relates to erosion risk

Surface erosion intensity (WEPP)

Flame length (Flammap)

Prelim

Next, examine how fire intensity (current or future climate) relates to erosion risk

Surface erosion intensity (WEPP)

From a climate change perspective, where would prescribed fire or thinning yield themost benefits

Predict effects of increased fire intensity on gully/landslide erosion potential

Then, search for overlaps between climate change related fire risk and erosion with fish habitat using automated tools in NetMap

Fire to Fish: Connect the Dots (channels)

Search for overlaps among increased fire risk, erosion potential & habitat quality

Climate change impacts on fish habitat: Evaluate at subbasin scales

NetMap contains tools for aggregating watershed data up to the scale ofsub basins, informing larger scale, watershed planning efforts

Predict locations whereclimate change relatedincreases in streamtemperature wouldbe most severe

Sensitivity of streamtemperature to increasesin thermal loading andair temperature

Identify locations whereclimate change relateddecreases in summer lowflow would have thegreatest impacts (low gradient,unconfined stream segments)

Reduced low flow impacts

Identify locations whereclimate change relateddecreases in summer lowflow would have thegreatest impacts (low gradient,unconfined stream segments)

Reduced low flow impacts

These subbasins with highsedimentation – low flowpotential may benefit most fromsediment reduction programsrelated to fire and roads

Design fire breaks according to climate change increases in fireseverity and associated impactson sensitive stream habitats

NetMap is a community supportedwatershed analysis system that cansupply state of the art decision supportin pre- and post fire forest managementplanning (and other land use efforts)