impact of efficiency improvements on the energy system: 2000 w society concept in perspective

NEEDS Forum 3

Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments

Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008

Impact of Efficiency Improvements on the Energy System: 2000 W Society Concept in Perspective

Stefan Hirschberg

NEEDS Forum 3

NEEDS Forum 3

Cairo, Egypt, 28 January 2008

Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 2NEEDS Forum 3


• Introduction: 2000 W Society• Swiss energy system• Historical importance of increasing energy efficiency• Goals for future increase of energy efficiency• Energy efficiency potential in Switzerland and impacts on Swiss

energy supply• Economic and ecologic efficiency• Conclusions

Content



The vision of the 2000-Watt societySource: novatlantis

ETH-domain vision of 2000 Watt society: „Aspiration of achieving economic growth as planned, while using distinctly less primary energy and clearly reducing CO2 emissions“.

Fossil fuels

Nuclear fuels

Hydro Power

Other Renewables

Wat

t per

cap

ita

Fossil fuels

Non-fossil fuels

Technological reduction potential



Human development Index vs. energy consumption

Sour

ce: E

nerg

y-M

irror

No.

18, 2

007



Swiss energy system performs well compared to other countries:

Relatively low primary energy demand & CO2-emissions

Reasons:• Structure of the energy system –

Hydro and nuclear power for electricity production• Structure of the economy –

few energy intensive industries, extensive service sector

Thesis I



Energy flows in Switzerland (2005)

Households29.6%

Industry19.5%

Services16.7%

Traffic32.5%

Source: BFE 2006

Primary Energy1‘132‘660 TJ

End Energy890‘440 TJ

Agriculture1.7%

66% fossil



Greenhouse gas emissions, Switzerland, direct & indirect (grey)

Source: BAFU 2007

Total 93.6 Mio. t CO2-eq in the year 2004

0.9 Mio. t CO2-eqbeverages and tobacco

0.9%

1.2 Mio. t CO2-eqmachines and vehicles

1.3%

3.0 Mio. t CO2-eqmanufactured goods

3.2%

53.0 Mio. t CO2-eqdirect emissions

57%

0.9 Mio. t CO2-eqservices

0.9%

0.1 Mio. t CO2-eqgoods and transports

0.064%

8.3 Mio. t CO2-eqmanufactured goods

9%

13.0 Mio. t CO2-eqfuels and electricity

14%

1.8 Mio. t CO2-eqraw materials

1.9%

4.1 Mio. t CO2-eqfood and living animals

4.3%

7.2 Mio. t CO2-eqchemicals

7.7%

0.2 Mio. t CO2-eqoils, fats and waxes

0.3%



Efficiency improvements have played a very important role in the past and will do so also in the future.

Thesis II



Impact of efficiency Improvements on energy consumption

Source: IEA (2007)



Industry: Structural & „real“ efficiency improvements,1982-1998

Source: Unander 2007

Impact of structural changes on energy

consumption



Energy intensity of the economy: CH / EU

Source:BFE 2006

Schweiz

EU:

Ener

gy in

tens

ity [M

J End

ener

gy p

er G

DP (C

HF19

90)] In the 1990‘s, yearly increase in energy efficiency

was ~1.4%; since year 2000, the rate decreasedto only ~0.5% current policy is NOT sufficient

Switzerland



Energy Efficiency: one step towards less CO2 emissions

Source: Energie-Spiegel No.10, 2003



Efficiency improvements are necessary and highly important but alone not sufficient to respond to the principle goals of sustainable energy policies.

Thesis III



Kaya Equation ImplicationsCO2 Emissions = Carbon content of energy x Energy intensity x Production x Population

of economy per person

Goal:Reduction by50% until 2050

Increase byfactor 1.5(IPCC 2000)

Needs to be reduced by factor of 3 to reach the goal

Increase by factor 1.65(1% growth per year)


Decrease by factor 2.5(-1.8% per year in alternativescenario of IEA 2004)

Needs to be reducedby factor of 2 to reachthe goal

Necessitates very strong expansionof ”carbon-free” energy sources



Kaya Equation ImplicationsCO2 Emissions = Carbon content of energy x Energy intensity x Production x Population

of economy per person

Goal:Reduction by50% until 2050

Increase byfactor 1.5(IPCC 2000)


Increase by factor 2.15(1.6% growth per year)

Needs to be reduced by factor of 6.5 to reach the goal

Decrease by factor 1.6(-1% per year)

Needs to be reducedby factor of 4 to reachthe goal

Necessitates very strong expansionof all “carbon-free” technologies



We can reduce energy consumption in Switzerland by use of most efficient technologies until 2050 by maximum 30%.

Energy efficiency alone does not guarrantee a substantial reduction of fossil fuel uses and thus CO2-emissions.

Very ambitious reductions of CO2-emissions do not necessarily require reaching the 2000 Watt level per person.

Thesis IV



Swiss energy system (2050): reduced primary energy consumption & CO2-emissions

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

5.2

KW

4.9

kW

4.8

kW

4.5

kW

5.0

kW

5.0

kW

5.0

kW

5.0

kW

4.5

kW

4.5

kW

4.5

kW

4.5

kW

4.0

kW

4.0

kW

4.0

kW

4.0

kW

3.5

kW

3.5

kW

3.5

kW

3.5

kW

0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Pri

mar

y E

ner

gy

[k

W/C

ap

ita]

RenewablesHydroNuclearNatural Gas OilCoal

No limit

CO2 reduction per decade 2010 - 2050

Primary Energy per capita

target

Source: Schulz 2007



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1105

.2 k

W (

No

Lim

it)

4.9

kW

(N

o L

imit)

4.8

kW

(N

o L

imit)

4.5

kW

(N

o L

imit)

5.0

kW

ta

rge

t

5.0

kW

ta

rge

t

5.0

kW

ta

rge

t

5.0

kW

ta

rge

t

4.5

kW

ta

rge

t

4.5

kW

ta

rge

t

4.5

kW

ta

rge

t

4.5

kW

ta

rge

t

4.0

kW

ta

rge

t

4.0

kW

ta

rge

t

4.0

kW

ta

rge

t

4.0

kW

ta

rge

t

3.5

kW

ta

rge

t

3.5

kW

ta

rge

t

3.5

kW

ta

rge

t

3.5

kW

ta

rge

t

0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15%Dis

cou

nte

d A

dd

itio

nal

Sys

tem

Co

sts

[bill

ion

CH

F 20

00]

*

Additional costs in efficiency scenarios

No limit

CO

2 r

ed

uc

tio

n p

er

de

ca

de

20

10

- 2

05

0

Pri

ma

ry E

ne

rgy

pe

r c

ap

ita

ta

rge

t

Source: Schulz 2007



A substantially higher energy efficiency is feasible in Switzerland – especially in the building and transport sectors.

→ energy consumption can be substantially reduced.

Thesis V



Heat supply in households(Scenario 3.5 kWPE / -10% CO2 per decade)

Sour

ce: S

chul

z 20

07



Mobility: End energy consumption

3.5 kWPE 3.5 kWPE / -10% CO2 pro Decade

Sopurce: Schulz 2007



Electricity in the future will be more important than ever for our service economy.

Therefore maintaining CO2-free electricity production will be decisive for enabling effective and ambitious reduction of CO2-emissions.

Thesis VI



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

905.

2 kW

4.9

kW

4.8

kW

.

4.5

kW

5.0

kW

5.0

kW

5.0

kW

5.0

kW

4.5

kW

4.5

kW

4.5

kW

4.5

kW

4.0

kW

4.0

kW

4.0

kW

4.0

kW

3.5

kW

3.5

kW

3.5

kW

3.5

kW

0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Ele

ctr

icit

y P

rod

uc

tio

n [

TW

h]

Solar Power

Wind Turbines

Biomass CHP

Natural Gas CHP

Biomass Thermal

Natural Gas Thermal

Nuclear Power

Hydro Power

Electricity generation in CH (2050) with lower energy consumption & CO2-emissions

No limit

CO2 reduction

per decade 2010 - 2050

Primary Energy per capita

target

2005: 57,9 TWh

Source: Schulz 2007



Total (internal plus external) costs of energy systems (though controversial) reflect economic & ecologic efficiency of the various options.

Accounting for external costs is favourable to renewables and nuclear.

Technology improvements can change the „ranking“ of the options – some renewables have the most promising improvement potentials.

Thesis VII



Total costs of current and future electricity supply systems

Source: Hirschberg et al., 2007



Electricity from New renewables: Potential & costs (CH)

Costs [Rp/kWh]

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

Photovoltaic

Wind power

Geothermal

Biomass

Small hydro< 1 MW

2.0%

3.6 - 5.5%

0 - 3.6%

1.1%

0.2 - 4.9%

Shares in total electricity production2000 2035

5-25 4-20

20-40 10-30

7-15

12-25 12-15

50-90 22-42

No unitoperational

20042035

PSI-GaBE/BFE Energieperspektiven; Hirschberg et al. 2005



• Explicit goals are needed for the strong reduction of CO2-emissions. The goal of just reducing primary energy is not adequate.

• We need ambitious but realistic goals for 2050:3–4 t CO2 per capita with maximum 1500-2000 Watt fossil energy.

• Transformation of our overall energy system, in particular of energy use in residential and transportation sectors, is needed and requires targeted long-term policy measures.

• The transformation is associated with sizeable costs.• The production of electricity will increase substantially. • Efficiency improvements are of central importance for meeting the main

sustainable policy goals. They are part of a mix of several options that also includes carbon-free technologies.

Conclusions

impact of efficiency improvements on the energy system: 2000 w society concept in perspective

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