impact of climate change on rice production
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
WEL COME
Impact of climate change on sustainable production and
productivity of rice
Shantappa DuttarganviII year Ph.DDepartment of Agronomy
Seminar IIon
Introduction
Impact of climate change on rice
Strategies for mitigation
Conclusion
Future line of work
Sequence of presentation…
INTRODUCTION
Global warming Global warming refers to an increase in
average global temperature which in turn causes climate change
The average global air temperature increased by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) by the end of 2005
The global temperatures increases to 1.8 – 6.4 °C by 2100 AD
Sea levell going raise 0.18 to 0.59 mt IPCC, 2009
IPCC, 2009Variations of the Earth's surface temperature
for the past 140 years
GISStemperature2011withColorbar_WMV V9.wmv
Projected future regional patterns of warming based on the
emissions scenarios NASA
IPCC, 2007
Part of the infrared waves is trapped by the
atmosphere making the earth warm
Because of too much GHGs that thicken the
atmosphere
Why GHG makes a big effect on climate…?
Carbon –dioxide emission from different countries
Country Metric tons
USA 20.01
Europe 9.40
Japan 9.87
China 3.60
Russia 11.71
India 1.02
World average 4.25IPCC,2009
Percentage change in sector emissions in developed and developing country groups,
1990 to 2020
UNEP, 2006
Climate change Changes in measures of temperature and
rainfall
It may be cooling or warming of climate
Climate change may result from
Natural factors
Natural processes within the climate system
Human activities
Green house gases for Climate change
Carbon Di-oxide
Methane
Halocarbons – CFCs & HFCs (Montreal
protocol)
N2O
Water vapour
Share of different agriculture sectors in climate change
Rice cultivation23%
Manure management
5%
Emission from soils12%
Enteric fermentation
59%
Crop residues1%
National Communication on Climate Change, 2004
Agriculture as GHG contributor
Potential contributor it accounts for 15%
Major contributing activities
- Deforestation
- Burning of crop residue
- Raising large herd of cattle’s and other ruminants
- N-fertilization
Kurukshetra, 2008
Evidences of Climate Change
Physical evidence Biological evidence
1. Rise in atmospheric temp and CO2 level
2. Depletion in rainfall
3. Shifting and shrinking of cooling period
4. Changing pattern of monsoon
5. Occurrence of natural disaster
1. Early blossoming of trees
2. Appearance of grasses in Antartica
3. Changing cropping pattern
Future impacts of climate change in India
Decreased snow cower
Erratic monsoon with serious effects on rain-fed agriculture
Drop in wheat production by 4-5 mt with 10 C raise in temperature
Raising sea level
Increased frequency and intensity of floods
Tsunami in South East-AsiaEarthquake in Gujrat-2001
Mumbai Flood-2005
IPCC
Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 13, 1941
Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 31, 2004
IPCC, 2009
Impact of sea level rise
Impact of climate change by 2050
> 25m children will be malnourished
Irrigated wheat yield will decreased by 30%
Irrigated rice yield 15%
Climate change will increase prices in 2050 by 90% for wheat, 12% for rice and 35% for maize
At least US$7 billion a year are necessary to improve agricultural productivity to prevent adverse effects on children.
IFPRI
Impact of climate change on rice production
An increase of 2 - 4oC results to 15%
reduction in yields
Rainfed and drought prone areas-17 to 40%
Water scarcity affects 23mha in Assia
Additional CO2 can benefit crops, this effect
was nullified by an increase of
temperature
Impact of climate change on Rice production
Growth stagesCritical temperature (0C)
Low High Optimum
Germination 16-19 45 18-40
Seedling emergence 12 35 25-30
Rooting 16 35 25-28
Leaf elongation 7-12 45 31
Tillering 9-16 33 25-31
Initiation of panicle 15 - -
Panicle differentiation 15-20 30 -
Anthesis 22 35-36 30-33
Ripening 12-18 >30 20-29
Nguyen, 2006
Critical temperatures for the development of rice plant at different
growth stages
Symptoms of heat stress in rice
Growth stage Symptoms
VegetativeWhite leaf tip, chlorotic & white bands and specks
Reproductive stage Reduce spikelet number and sterility
Ripening Reduced grain filling
Contd…
Yield and yield attributes
Climate scenarios
Temperature change
Crop duration (days)
Grain yield (kg ha-1)
Grains (m-2)
Grains (ear-1)
Biomass (kg ha-1)
Straw (kg ha -1)
(% deviation over normal scenario)
Extreme warm
+2.0 0C -3.3 -8.4 -8.4 -12.4 -7.4 -6.4
Greater warm
+1.5 0C -2.6 -8.2 -8.2 -8.3 -6.5 -4.7
Moderate warm
+1.0 0C -2.0 -4.9 -4.9 -6.1 -3.6 -2.2
Slight warm
+0.5 0C -1.3 -3.2 -3.2 -2.4 -1.3 -0.7
Normal warm
Normal 153 6136 18846 494 10220 4943
Rice crop response to variations in temperature
Mathauda et al., 2000Ludhiana, Punjab
CERES rice model
LocationYear
Duration
Days to anthesis
Economic yield (kg ha-1)
Decreases of economic yield from 2000 (%)
Tiruvallur 2000
110 87 5236 -
2020
108 87 4956 5.3
2050
107 86 4634 6.5
2080
104 84 3925 15.3
Cuddalore
2000
112 87 4921 -
2020
111 86 4765 3.2
2050
109 84 3256 31.7
2080
107 84 3198 1.8
Dharmapuri
2000
113 92 5518 -
2020
110 90 5342 3.2
2050
106 88 4861 9.0
2080
103 87 4197 13.7
Impact of climate change on duration, days to anthesis and yield of rice crop at different locations
Srivani et al., 2007
TamilnaduINFOCROP model
Effect of climate change on LAI (a) and DMP (b) in rice Srivani et al., 2007
Schematic representation of potential effects of rise in CO2 concentrations and temperature on rice and its growing environment
Wassmann et al., 2009
Station name
2008 2030 2050 2070% change in yield for
2030
% change in yield for 2050
% change in yield for
2070Bogra 5714 5119 4070 2036 -10.8 -29.1 -64.5Dinajpur 6848 4824 4364 2692 -29.6 -36.3 -60.7Mymensingh 5995 5275 4455 2739 -12.0 -25.7 -54.3Tangail 5487 5160 3874 1938 -5.95 -29.4 -64.7Jessore 5571 4432 4583 1997 -20.4 -17.7 -64.2Satkhira 4700 4364 3603 2066 -7.14 -23.3 -56.0Barisal 6043 4006 3972 2091 -33.7 -34.3 -65.4Madaripur 4582 4017 3647 2186 -12.3 -20.4 -52.3Chandpur 5975 5455 4039 2772 -8.70 -32.4 -53.6Comilla 6115 5987 4456 3075 -2.09 -27.1 -49.7
Avg. Change in yield 11 21 54
Predicted yield of rice (kg ha -1) selected locations for the years 2008, 2030,2050 and
2070
Basak et al., 2010
Bangladesh PRECIS model
Predicted yield of BR3 rice in Barisal and Dhinajpur under different atmospheric CO2 concentrations
Basak et al., 2010
Yield at 340ppm CO2 concentration and rise in temperature
Yield at 10C rise in temperature and different CO2 concentrations
Sanjay et al., 2009
Max Temp (0 C)
Min Temp (0 C)
CO2 Conc.
(ppm)
Solar radiation (MJ/m2/d)
Simulated yield
(kg/ha)
Yield change
(%)
Growth duration
(days)0a 0 335 0 8391 100 108+4 +4 335 0 5517 66 99-4 -4 335 0 9842 117 133+4 +4 +20 0 5604 67 99-4 -4 +20 0 9853 117 1320 0 +20 0 8439 101 1080 0 335 +1 8590 102 1080 0 335 -1 8179 97 108
+4 +4 335 +1 5717 68 99+4 +4 335 -1 5369 64 99-4 -4 335 +1 9877 118 132-4 -4 335 -1 9433 112 133-4 -4 +20 +1 9583 114 132
Sensitivity of simulated yield of rice to temperature, CO2 concentration and solar
radiation
a standard treatment (120 kg N/ha continuous flooding)
Amgain et al., 2006Punjab
Saseendran et al., 2000Kerala
Sensitivity of ET and yield to CO2 changes in the atmosphere as simulated by CERES-Rice model
Kerala Saseendran et al ., 2000
Sensitivity of rice yield to atmospheric temperature changes between
-6 0C and +6 0C as simulated by the CERES- Rice model
Impact climate change on quality of rice
Elevated CO2 influences eating quality of rice
Elevated CO2 influences eating quality of rice
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1999 2000
ElevatedAmbient
17.5
18
18.5
19
19.5
20
20.5
21
21.5
1999 2000
Perc
en
tag
e
Whiteness
Terao et al., 2005
Elevated CO2 influences eating quality of rice
Elevated CO2 influences eating quality of rice
Terao et al., 2005
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1999 2000
EastWestm
g/gProtein content
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1999 2000
ElevatedAmbient
Hymenopteran parasitoids and small predators
Brown plant hopper is 17 times more tolerant
to 40 0C than its predator Cyrtorrhynus
lividipennis
Rise in winter temperature may help to
continue the life cycle of pests
Impact of climate change on pest and diseases
High temperature and RH is very much conducive
for rapid proliferation of sheath blight disease
Bacterial leaf streak emerged as an alarming
proportion in South and SW parts of country
might be due environmental factor
Minimum temperature In winter may rise in
further increased severity of sheath blight and
stem rot
Mitigation Strategies for climate change
Adaptive options to deal with the impact of climate change are
Developing cultivars tolerant of heat and salinity stress
and resistant to flood and drought
Modified crop management practices
Improving water management
Crop diversification
Improving pest management
Better weather forecasts and crop insurance
Harnessing the indigenous technical knowledge of
farmers
Performance of different varieties under the system of rice intensification method of cultivation during summer 2010
Geethalakshmi et al., 2011Tamilnadu
For flooded condition floating rice is best…
TreatmentGrain yield
(t ha-1)
Cumulative
CH4 (kg ha-1)
Kg CH4 Mg-1
grain yield
Control (no N) 3.58 94.94 26.52
Urea (60 kg N) 4.58 155.28 33.90
Azolla IC (30 kg N) + Urea (30 kg N) 4.38 149.37 34.10
Azolla dual cropping (30 kg N)+ Urea (30 kg N) 4.33 89.29 20.62
Azolla IC (30 kg N) +dual cropping (30 kg N) 4.24 105.64 b 24.92
Variation in selected parameters of rice plants and cumulative CH4 efflux from a flooded rice paddy under the influence of Azolla and urea
Bharathi et al., 2000
CRRI, Cuttack
Biodiversity
Integration
Sustainability
Pl. nutritn mangt
Weed, pest & disease mangt
Intercropping, crop rotation & companion
cropping
IPM & Animal manure
Tillage & cover crop
Natural fertilizers & rotation
Tillage method, natural pesticides & biocontrol
Mitigate and adapt onclimate change by:
Nitrogen Fixation
Sequestrating CO2
Reduce GHG emission
Promote the healthy use & proper care of water and water resources
Interact in a constructive and life enhancing way with natural systems andcycles
Organic agriculture principles and practices in mitigating climate change impacts
Priyanka Prima Dewi, 2009Indonesia
Reducing methane emissionReducing nitrous oxide emissionRice residuesRice cooking time
Future line of work
In detailed studies are needed to quantify the effects
and interactions of CO2 and temperature on rice
Development of species specific agronomic
management practices to over come climate impact
Need greater research, policy and financial support
for climate change
Conclusion Industrialized countries are more responsible for threat
of climate change.
Rice yield decreases by about 0.75 t ha-1 in efficient zones
and 0.06 t ha-1 in coastal regions.
Grain yield declined by 10 per cent for each 1 ºC increase
in growing season minimum temperature.
By adapting mitigation strategies minimize the negative
impacts of climate change and need more time to become
effective.
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