impact of climate change on insect pests

Impact of Climate Change on Insect Pests

ENT- 591Credit Seminar

(0+1)

CHAIRMAN: STUDENT Dr. K. Ramaraju Varun Saini

(Director, CPPS, TNAU, Coimbatore-03 ) 13-503-014MEMBERS:

1. Dr. N.Chitra

(Assistant Professor, Dept. of Agril. Entomology, TNAU, Coimbatore – 3)

2. Dr. S. Mohankumar (Professor, Dept. of Plant Biotechnology , TNAU, Coimbatore – 3)

http://knowledge.allianz.com/en/globalissues/climate_change/global_warming_basics/greenhouse_gas_profiles_all.html

1. Introduction

2. Impact of climate change on insect pests

3. Global warming and climate changes on insects

4. Effect of fluctuating temperature on insects

5 Effect of elevated CO2 on insects

6 Precipitation and population dynamics 7 Drought and insect population dynamics

8. Conclusion

CONTENTS :-

CLIMATE CHANGE

“Climate change refers to the phenomenon that is causing the earth to become warmer which means that our climate and our weather systems are changing”

(SEI Report, 2000)

Causes of Climate Change

Climate change caused by human activity

Anthropogenic factors

Review of World Energy report, 2014

IEA/OECD, 2013

Agriculture 22%

Energy Supply 67%

Industrial Processes 8%

Land Use Changes 1%

Waste 2%

Contribution of different sectors to Greenhouse Gas Emission in India

INCCA, 2010

CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONS

1. Over the next two decades, a warming of 0.2–0.4°C per decade.

2. Warming and sea-level rise to continue for centuries

3. A 1.8°C rise above 1980–1999 levels in global average surface air temperatures by the end of the

twenty-first century for a low emission scenario (IPCC B1).

4. A 4.0°C rise above 1980–1999 levels in global average surface air temperatures by the end of the

twenty-first century for a high emission fossil-fuel intensive scenario (IPCC A1Fl).

5. Warming expected to be greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes.

6. By the end of the twenty-first century, rainfall very likely to have increased in high latitudes

and East Africa and decreased in most subtropical regions

7. Increase in extreme weather events (droughts, heat waves, heavy precipitation, intense tropical

cyclones). Mathew et al., 2011

How might the climate change?1. Temperature increases - An increase in global mean annual temperatures of 1°C by 2025

and 3°C by the end of the next century.2. Sea Level Rises - Global mean sea level is estimated – risen 10-25cm over the last 100

years. In the next 100 years the average sea level is projected to be about 50cm

3. Increased Variability of Weather Events

4. Carbon dioxide level increases – concentration of Co2, the predominant greenhouse gas have increased from 280 ppm to 400 ppm over the last 150 years

IPCC Report,2013

Expected effects (of expected climate change) for India: examples (INCCA 2010)

• Agriculture

– Up to 50% reduction in maize yields

– 4-35% reduction in rice yields (with some exceptions)

– Rise in coconut yields (with some exceptions); reduced apple production

– Negative impacts on livestock in all regions

• Fresh water supply

– High variability predicted in water yields (from 50% increase to 40-50% fall)

– 10-30% increased risk of floods; increased risks of droughts

• Forests and natural ecosystems

– Shifting forest borders; species mix; negative impact on livelihoods and biodiversity

• Human health

– Higher morbidity and mortality from heat stress and vector/water-borne diseases

– Expanded transmission window for malaria

Projected Impacts Of Climate Change On Agriculture

1. Increased crop and pasture yields in colder environments and decreased yields in warmer and

seasonally dry environments (virtually certain).

2. Increased insect outbreaks (virtually certain).

3. Reduction in yields in warmer regions due to heat stress (very likely).

4. Increased heavy precipitation events, causing damage to crops, soil erosion and difficulty in land

cultivation (very likely).

5. Increased area affected by drought, leading to land degradation, lower yields/crop damage and failure,

and more livestock deaths (likely).

6. Storm intensity increased, leading to damaged crops and uprooting of trees (likely).

7. Increased incidence of extreme high seas, causing salinization of irrigation water and freshwater

systems (likely).

Mathew et al., 2011

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INSECT PESTS

HOW ARE INSECTS RESPONDING TO GLOBAL WARMING ?

CLIMATE CHANGE• Increase in mean temperature• Changes in precipitation

• Frequency of extreme weather events

CHANGE IN PHENOLOGY• Early spring occurrence• Extended flight period• Multi-voltinism

CHANGES IN DISTRIBUTION• Expansions northward and uphill

• Southward and downhill contraction

CHANGES IN SPECIES INTERACTION• Insect-host plant• Host-parasitoid• Competition

Further shifts in distribution

Extinction of some species

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CHANGE IN BIODIVERSITY AND COMMUNITY

COMPOSITION• Loss of local and regional

diversity• Progressive dominance of

generalist species

Menéndez, 2007

Indirect effects Direct effects

Due to change in:

• Host physiology

• Host nutritional status

• Activities of man (change in varieties, cropping systems , inter cropping etc.)

Results of increased

- Temperature - Carbon dioxide - Precipitation

Impact Of Climate Change On Insect Pests

• Extension of geographical range of insect pests

• Increased over-wintering and rapid population growth

• Changes in insect – host plant interactions

• Increased risk of invasion by migrant pests

• Impact on arthropod diversity and extinction of species

• Changes in synchrony between insect pests and their crop host

• Introduction of alternative hosts as green bridges

• Reduced effectiveness of crop protection technologies

Possible Impacts on Insects under Climate change…..

Sharma, 2010

• Extending the growing season

• Altering timing of emergence

• Rapid growth and development rates

• Shortening generation times

• Prolonged overwintering

• Shorten predation window

• Altering geographic distribution

Climate change affect insect populations by

Porter et al., 1991

Range Expansion Of Insect Pests Due To Climate Change

(Fand et al., 2012)

Impact Of Climate Change On Insect Survival And Population Build Up

(Fand et al., 2012)

Impact Of Climate Change On Future Geographic Range And Distribution Of Insect Pests Insect pests Order/Family Host plants Impact on Insects/Behavioural

responseReferences

Corn Earworms, Helicoverpa zea, H. armigera

Lepidoptera/Noctuidae Maize Altitudes wise range expansion and increased overwintering survival in USA

Deffenbaugh et al., 2008

European corn borer, Ostrinia nubilalis

Lepidoptera/Crambidae Maize Northward shifts in the potential distribution up to 1220 km are estimated to occur.

An additional generation per season.

Porter et al, 1991

Cottony cushion scale, Icerya purchasi

Lepidoptera/Monophlebidae

Polyphagous Populations appear to be spreading northwards

Cannon, 1998

Old world Bollworm Helicoverpa armigera

Lepidoptera/Noctuidae Polyphagous Phenomenal increase in the United Kingdom from 1969-2004 and outbreaks at the northern edge of its range in Europe .

Cannon, 1998

Cotton bollworm/ Pulse pod borer Helicoverpa armigera

Lepidoptera/Noctuidae Cotton, Pulses, vegetables

Expansion of geographic range in Northern India

Adult flights/ migratory behaviour

Sharma et al., 2005; 2010

Insect Outbreaks In Relation To Climate Change

Fand et al., 2012

EFFECT OF FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURE ON INSECTS

Effect of enhanced atmospheric temperature on crop pest dynamicsINCREASING ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE LEADS TO…… REFERENCESIncreasing...• Northward migration Parmesan, 2006• Migration up elevation gradients Epstein et al., 1998• Insect developmental rates and oviposition Regniere, 1983• Potential for insect outbreaks Bale et al., 2002• Invasive species introductions Dukes and Mooney, 1999• Insect extinctions Thomas et al., 2004Decreasing…• Effectiveness of insect biocontrol by fungi Stacy and Fellowes, 2002• Reliability of economic threshold levels Trumble, John and Butler, Casey, 2009

• Insect diversity in ecosystems Erasmus et al., 2002• Parasitism Hance et al., 2007; Fleming and Volney,

1995

Das et al., 2011

Temperature influences insect

- Behavior

- Distribution

- Development

- Survival

- Reproduction

Every species has a particular threshold of temperature

• Above which – development occurs

• Below which - development ceases

Temperature Influence On Insect

Pest Zoological Name Temperature Biology Temperature Biology References

American Cockroach

Periplaneta americana

> 21°C Year round activity

27°C Egg to adult, 24weeks

Benson and Zungoli, 1997

Bed Bugs Cimex lectularius 18°C 128 days, egg to adult

30°C 24 days, egg to adult

Usinger,1966

Cat flea Ctenocephalides felis

13°C Egg hatch, 6 days

35°C Egg hatch, 36 hours

Silverman et al., 1981

House fly Musca domestica >20°C Larval stage, 6-8 weeks

21-32°C Larval stage, 3-7 days

Ehmann, 1997

Indian meal moth

Plodia interpunctella

20°C Life cycle, 60 days

25°C Life cycle, 30 days

Cox and Bell, 1991

Yellow fever mosquito

Aedes aegypti 25-29°C Optimum larval development

26°C Optimum adult development

Fay, 1964

Effect of Fluctuating Temperature on Insect Biology

CASE STUDIES

• The distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitude or elevation in response to changing climate.

• The distributions of species have recently shifted to higher elevations at a median rate of 11.0 meters per decade, and to higher latitudes at a median rate of 16.9 kilometers per decade.

1. Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming.

(Thomas et al., 2011)

Spiders(85)

Grasshoppers and allies(22)

Ground Beetles(59)

Butterflies(29)

North MovementSouth Movement

North MovementNorth Movement

North Movement

South MovementSouth Movement

South Movement

- Solid line shows Zero shifts- The short-dashed line indicates the Median Observed Shift and- The long-dashed line indicates the Predicted Range Shift.

(Thomas et al., 2011)

Ice Melting

Ice Melting

Ice Melting

Ice Melting

2. Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the activity and voltinism of the Spruce Bark beetle, Ips typographus

• Phenology and developmental rate may change in response to changes in temperature and, for multivoltine insect species, the number of generations per year may be affected.

• In Sweden, I. typographus is known to develop one generation per year and only occasionally a second generation has been initiated in the southern parts of the country.

Jonsson et al., 2009

• A projected temperature is increase by the end of this century of 2.4–3.8 C during the bark beetle activity period, suggested significant Spatio-temporal changes in the life cycle and voltinism of I. typographus in a gradually changing climate.

• Results indicated that I. typographus will shift from univoltine to primarily bivoltine in South Sweden and a viable population may be established in the north-western mountainous parts


The frequency of summer swarming and of completed development of a second generation can increase due to earlier spring swarming and faster development of the first generation.

Spruce Bark Beetle, Ips typographus

I. typographus is in general univoltine

Second Generation Will Complete Development And Survive Hibernation

At higher temperature

Impact of Climate Change

Direct Impact- Swarming Activity- Development Rate

Indirect ImpactChanges in availability of

brood trees


3. Effects of Fluctuating Daily Temperatures at Critical Thermal Extremes on Aedes aegypti Life-History Traits

• Temperature effects on larval development time, larval survival and adult reproduction depend on the combination of mean temperature and magnitude of fluctuations.

• At low mean temperatures, fluctuations reduce the thermal energy required to reach pupation relative to constant temperature, whereas at high mean temperatures additional thermal energy is required to complete development.

• A stage structured model based on these empirical data predicts that temperature fluctuations can significantly affect the intrinsic growth rate of mosquito populations.

(Carrington et al., 2013)

Development time and survival estimates for Aedes aegypti at a range of constant temperatures

• Development time was fastest at 35°C and slowest at 16°C.

• None of the larvae survived until pupation at 12°C and 40°C( Extreme temperature limit)

• Less than 1% larval survival was observed for 39°C

• At 16°C and 38°C larval survival was also low (65.7% and 63.5% survival respectively). The highest larval survival was seen at 26°C (90.5%), closely followed by 30°C (88.6%) and 20°C (88.3%).


Effects of fluctuations around high and low mean temperatures on immature

development time and survival

• Development time and survival were both significantly affected by temperature treatments.

• Egg-to pupae development time increased from 6.11 days at 37°C small to 6.50 days and 7.37 days with a small fluctuation of temperature at 35°C small and 35°Cconstant.

• Larval survival increased from a baseline of 45% under a constant 35°C to 60% with the addition of small fluctuations, but dropped to 23% at 37°C with small fluctuations.• Survival rates of all treatments were significantly different from each other


Predicted population growth of female Aedes aegypti after 30 days

• Deterministic model showed that the population may be sustained under constant temperatures ranging between 20°C and 35°C, but reproduction was not successful at 16°C (both with and without fluctuations) or at 35°C and 37°C with small fluctuations.

• According to the model, the optimum temperature for population growth is 30°C. At this temperature, the model predicts a growth rate of 41.5% each day, leading to more than 60,000 eggs and 3,525 adults in the population after 30 days. The least optimal temperature for population growth (15.3% per day) is 20°C, with 16 adults after 30 days by using empirical data from this study. (Carrington et al., 2013)

EFFECT OF ELEVATED CO2 ON INSECTS

Predicted Effects Of Elevated CO2 Conditions On Plants And Insect Herbivores

(Cornellisen, 2011)

Increasing Atmospheric CO2 leads to References

Increasing…………… Food consumption by caterpillars Osbrink et al., 1987 Reproduction of aphids Bezemer et al., 1999 Predation by lady beetle Chen et al., 2005 Carbon based plant defenses Coviella and Trumble, 1999 Effect of foliar application and Bacillus thuringiensis Coviella and Trumble, 2000

Decreasing…………. Insect development rates Osbrink et al., 1987 Response to alarm pheromones by aphids Awmarck et al., 2000 Parasitism Roth and Lndroth, 1995 Effect of transgenic B. thuringiensis Coviella et al., 2000 Nitrogen-based plant defense Coviella and Trumble, 1999

Effect Of Increasing Atmospheric CO2 On Plant-Insect Interaction

Das et al., 2011

Common name

Scientific name Effect Reference

Elevated CO2 and insect pestsColorado beetle Leptinotarsa

decemlineata23.8% larger dry mass Vaccari et al .,2000

Aphids Myzus persicae Not be negatively affected by increased CO2

Hughes and Bazzaz, 2001

Bollworm H.armigera Significant differences in growth & development

Wu G et al.,2006

Elevated CO2 on transgenic plants and insect pests Tobacco bud worm

Spodoptera exigua Limited N produced less toxin Coviella et al., 2000

Spodoptera exigua N based toxin was affected Coviella et al., 2002

Boll worm H.armigera Decrease in Bt toxin level Ge Feng et al., 2005

Pest complex under elevated CO2

Insects Elevated CO2

(570 ppm)References

Japanese beetle Potato leaf hopper Western corn root wormMexican bean beetle

57% more damage (Trumble and Butler, 2009)

Thrips 90% more feeding (Heagle, 2003)

Cereal aphid Higher population (Newman , 2004)

CASE STUDIES

1. Influence of elevated CO2 associated with chickpea on growth performance of gram caterpillar, Helicoverpa armigera (Hüb.)

(Khadar et al., 2014)

• Alteration in food quality of chickpea due to elevated CO2 significantly affected the growth parameters of H. Armigera in the form of increased food consumption, gain in larval weight and more fecal matter production.

• Elevated CO2 concentration also affect the larval duration of H. armigera as compared to ambient CO2 concentration.

Biochemical changes in chickpea foliage under different CO2 conditions


Effect of elevated CO2 on growth and development of H. armigera on chickpea leaf mediated artificial diet


ELEVATED CO2

Total Food ConsumptionLarval WeightFecal Matter ProductionTotal Larval DurationPupal Weight

Effect of elevated CO2 on growth performance or indices of H. armigera

ELEVATED CO2 • Approximate Digestibility• RCR

• ECI• ECD• RGR


Impact of elevated CO2 on fecundity of H. armigera

In a nutshell, it can be concluded that increased CO2 concentrations has the negative effect on the growth and development of H. armigera


2. Impact of Elevated CO2 on Tri-Trophic Interaction of Gossypium hirsutum, Aphis gossypii and Leis axyridis

• The aphid fecundity significantly increased through successive generations reared on plants grown under elevated CO2.

• Increasing CO2 concentrations could alter the preference of lady beetle to aphid prey and enhance the biological control of aphids by lady beetle.

(Chen et al., 2005)

Effect of CO2 levels on plant growth and development parameters (mean ± SD) measured 30 d after seedling emergence, Hebei Province, China

(Chen et al., 2005)

Mean ± SD life history parameters of female A. gossypii in three successive generations affected by CO2 concentrations, Hebei Province, China

• Increasingly shorter lifespan of aphids from 1st generation to third generations indicated a long-term effect of elevated CO2 on lifespan of A. gossypii.

• Aphis gossypii lifetime fecundity increased with increase in CO2 concentrations, but the effect was more pronounced in second and third generations.

(Chen et al., 2005)

Mean ± SD population abundance of A. gossypii reared on cotton plants grown under different CO2 concentrations

Aphid abundance in each CO2 treatments significantly increase on each 5-d successive sampling date (Chen et al., 2005)

Mean ± SD no. adult A. gossypii, reared under ambient and 2 and 3 ambient CO2 concentrations, consumed per adult L. axyridis

On a 14-h feeding trial, adult L. axyridis consumed significantly higher number of cotton aphids on the 2 ambient CO2 patch followed by the 3 ambient CO2 patch, with the lowest rate of consumption on the ambient CO2 patch.

The consumption of aphids by lady beetles increased by 20% in the 3 ambient CO2 patch and 33% in the 2 ambient CO2 patch compared with that in the ambient CO2 patch for 2-6 h after lady beetle exposure to the treatment landscape

(Chen et al., 2005)

3. Response of multiple generations of Semi-looper, Achaea janata feeding on castor to elevated CO2

(Rao et al., 2012)

Alteration of quality of food of Castor due to elevated CO2 significantly affected the growth parameters of A. janata in the form of longer larval duration, increased larval survival rate and differential pupal weight in successive four generations.

Elevated CO2 increasing the approximate digestibility and relative consumption rate, decreased efficiency of conversion of ingested food.

Effect of elevated CO2 on biochemical constituents of castor foliage grown under elevated and ambient CO2

(Rao et al., 2012)

Life history parameters of four successive generations of A. janata fed on castor grown under ambient and elevated CO2 concentrations.

(Rao et al., 2012)

(Rao et al., 2012)

(Rao et al., 2012)

Estimation of potential population increase index (PPI) and potential population consumption of A.janata in successive four generations fed on castor grown under elevated CO2 concentrations.

The present findings indicate that elevated carbon dioxide levels significantly altered the quality of the castor foliage resulting in higher consumption by larvae, better assimilation (higher values of relative consumption rate and approximate digestibility, slow growth (lower relative growth rate) and took longer time (two days more than ambient) to pupation to produce in less fecund adults over generations.

(Rao et al., 2012)

INDIRECT EFFECTS OF CO2 ON INSECTS Increases in CO2 can cause changes, chemical

composition of plant tissues.

Phytophagous insects are indirectly affected by this change in their host plants.

Decreases - protein content

Increases- C/N ratio in the leaves reduction in food quality results in poor growth.

(Coviella et al., 1999)

Drought may result in various physiological changes in plants that can increase their attractiveness and susceptibility to herbivorous insects

Droughts increase pathogen and insect survival and growth due to change in nutrient level particularly nitrogen , decrease in plant defense system and creates more favorable conditions for pest attack

Drought and insect population dynamics

Effects of drought and heat on forest insects populations in relation to the 2003 drought in Western Europe

Rouault et al., 2006

Daily distribution of adult flight and egg hatch for the Pine Processionary Caterpillar, Thaumetopoea pityocampa

Annual volume of spruce timber salvaged from bark beetle infestation in France reported by the French Forest Health Department


High humidity may favor some insects e.g. aphids

Thrips and white flies are sensitive to precipitation and are killed or removed from crops by heavy rains

Out breaks of Amsacta moorei are directly related to heavy and frequent rains (Saini and Ram, 2000)

Reductions in summer rainfall can alter the diversity and abundance of plant communities and their associated invertebrates (Morecroft et al ., 2004 )

Impact of Precipitation on Insects

“INVASIVE CATASTROPHES”

Coconut Eriophid Mite Sugarcane Wooly aphid

Spiralling Whitefly Papaya Mealy bug

CONCLUSION1. Global warming and climate change virtually affects all the possible changes in insects in

one way or other.

2. Pest number will undoubtedly continue to fluctuate from season -to-season, depending on the particular combination of weather condition that occur each year.

3. Predicting the impact of climate change on insects is a very complex exercise and a one that involves a great deal of modeling.

4. The precise impacts of climate change on insects is somewhat uncertain because some climate changes may favors insects while others may inhibit a few insects.

5. More work is required to identify the effects of weather and climate on important agricultural pests, and determine the climatic variables to which different species are most sensitive.

THANK YOU

impact of climate change on insect pests

Environment