IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CROP PRODUCTION &

PROTECTION (WITH SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON SE ASIA)(WHAT ARE THE LESSONS FOR THE IPM PROGRAMMES)

Regional Meeting on Community Education for Pesticide Risk

Reduction

Guilin, Guangxi, China PR

20-23 October 2009

www.ait.asia

Dr. Prabhat Kumar

pkipm@ait.asia

SCOPE OF PRESENTATION

What is climate change / greenhouse gases

Is climate changing??

What are the evidences (fumes versus fires)

How it will affect crop ecosystems

Effects on the plants, herbivores & natural

enemies

Effects on plant diseases & vector, virus

Lessons for the IPM programmes

INTRODUCTION

Climate change

- Natural process

Or

- Man made

(anthropogenic)

Or

BOTH…..

Climate change

- Happened overnight

or

- A continuous process

Why to take it into

consideration??

Klein Goldewijk, 2001 K. Klein Goldewijk, Estimating global land use change over the past 300 years: the HYDE

database, Global Biogeochem. Cycles 15 (2001), pp. 417–433.

Global estimate of land use and land cover

& the human-disturbed landscape includes

intensive cropland (red) and

marginal cropland used for grazing

(pink).

Other landscape includes, for

example, tropical evergreen and

deciduous forest (dark green),

savannah (light green),

grassland and steppe (yellow),

open shrubland (maroon),

temperate deciduous forest (blue),

temperate needleleaf evergreen

forest (light yellow), and

hot desert (orange)

(a) 1700

(b) 1900

(c) 1990.

BASICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

What is Climate Change?

Climate patterns vary within natural cycles and are affected by natural events (volcano eruptions, La Niña & El Niño etc.)

In recent years (post industrialization era) human activities become the major source of this change – causing acceleration in rate of change (GHG gases)

"climate change" refers to projected changes in the Earth's

climate that are expected to occur because of human

activities.

WHAT ARE GREENHOUSE GASES?

Not all GHG are bad likewater vapor

Humans activitiesmostly related to levelsof carbon dioxide,methane and nitrousoxide and relatively lessknown halocarbons.

GHG GASES & FOOD PRODUCTION

Carbon Dioxide (C02)

C02 biggest contribution to global warming

(about 64%).

Burning of rice straw/slash and burn agriculture, Direct and

indirect uses of fossil fuel and based products fertilizers

Methane (CH4)

Methane makes the next biggest

contribution to global warming - some 20%

of the total.

Agriculture contributes around 10% of total methane & important sources are et

rice cultivation , animal husbandry

GHG GASES & FOOD PRODUCTION

Nitrous Oxide (N20)

10 times more potent than

methane

Burning vegetation and the effects of agriculture

on soil are the major sources of nitrous oxide.

15% increase in the last two hundred

years mainly due to more intensive agricultural

practices.

HalocarbonsNot much from agriculture other than cold

storage sector

Source of figure: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_and_agriculture

HOW MIGHT THE CLIMATE CHANGE?

The main impacts are predicted to be

temperature increases, sea level

rises, changes to rainfall patterns and

increased variability of weather events.

African Drought

India Drought, 2009

China Drought, 2009

Source: http://feww.wordpress.com/tag/drought/

Recent floods in dryland, AP, India

GHG EMISSION (2000)- SE ASIA

SOME COMMON TERMINOLOGIES Climate change predictions are based on scenarios that describe GHG emissions from

potential resource use pattern, technological innovations, and demographics.

The IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

A1: The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, a global population that peaks mid-century and declines thereafter, and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income.

The A1 scenario family is further developed into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis—fossil-intensive

(A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or balanced across all sources (A1B) (where balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end use technologies).

A2: The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self reliance

and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing populations. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change are more fragmented and slower than other storylines.

B1: The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population, which peaks

mid-century and declines thereafter as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and introduction of clean- and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives.

B2: The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic,

social and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population, at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented toward environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.

TEMPERATURE

Country Temperature change Source

Indonesia Increase of 1.04–1.40°C per century Rataq (2007)

Philippines Increase of 1.4°C per century IPCC (2007)

Singapore Increasing by about 0.3°C per decade as

observed between 1987–2007

Ho (2008)

Thailand Increase of 1.04–1.80°C per century Jesdapipat

(2008)

Vietnam Increase of 1.0°C per century Cuong (2008)

OBSERVED TEMP. CHANGE, SE ASIA

PROJECTED MEAN SURFACE TEMP. CHANGE

IN SE ASIA

1 Degree C 2 Degree C3 Degree C

PRECIPITATION

OBSERVED PRECIPITATION, SE ASIA

PROJECTED CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION

Under the A1FI scenario, precipitation in Southeast Asia is projected to decrease in

the first half of the century, but to increase by the end of the century, with

strong variation expected between March and May.

• Indonesia’s seasonal rainfall would increase consistently (2020 and 2080)

• Philippines would continue to be highly variable (extreme natural events)

• Thailand, there would be a shift in precipitation from north to south as predicted by

impact studies conducted under the United States Country Studies (TEI 1999) and

Boonyawat and Chiwanno (2007)

• Vietnam, annual rainfall in most areas would increase by 5–10% toward the end of this

century (Cuong 2008). Southern Viet Nam would become drier.

EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS

Flo

od

an

d S

torm

s,

SE

Asia

(1960

-2008)

SOME MORE OBSERVATION

Disasters in the Philippines (1950-2006),

Perez, 2008Disasters in the Indonesia (1950-2006), Boer

and Perdinan , 2008

SOME LIKELY EFFECTS FOR SE ASIA

Temperature change (2-4oC)

Rainfall, seasonal and temporal distribution

(WATER)

Sea level rise (salinity rise, ground water

contamination, loss of crop area and land

(Mekong delta and costal areas)

Combination of these effects results in more

extreme natural events, droughts, flash floods

(many examples)

CLIMATE CHANGE & AGRICULTURE

PRODUCTION

REGIONAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN THE 2080S

Source: Zhai, F., and J. Zhuang. 2009. Agricultural Impact of Climate Change: A General Equilibrium Analysis with

Special Reference to Southeast Asia. ADBI Working Paper 131. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute.

IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND

TRADE IN SOUTHEAST COUNTRIES, 2080 % CHANGE

Source: Zhai, F., and J. Zhuang. 2009. Agricultural Impact of Climate Change: A General Equilibrium Analysis with

Special Reference to Southeast Asia. ADBI Working Paper 131. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute.

SUMMARY FOR SE ASIA (ADB, 2009)

• IRRI (Peng et al. 2004) found that rice yield decreases by 10% for every 1°C

increase in growing season minimum temperature.

• In Thailand, it is reported that increasing temperature has led to a reduction

in crop yield, particularly in non-irrigated rice.

• In a study conducted by the Office of Natural Resources & Environmental

Policy and Planning (ONEP 2008), negative impacts on corn productivity

ranged from 5–44%, depending on the location of production.

CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON PLANTS, HERBIVORES AND NATURAL ENEMIES

EFFECT AT CROP LEVEL

Higher CO2 increase productivity (Long et al.

2004) but increase can be offshoot easily by high

temperature (increased phto-oxidation) and

variability of water availability.

amplifies the rate of evapotranspiration

In general more negative effect in tropical areas (Torriani,

2007)

(C3 plants can utilize up to 500 ppm, current level

of 300 ppm)

EFFECT AT CROP LEVEL

Delayed sowing negatively effect yields (delayed

rain may result delayed planting)

High temperature above threshold limits of crop

will severally affect growth and development (Ex. In

Philippines 10C in min temp on dry season will reduce 10% yield of rice, Peng et al.,

2004)

Rainfed cultivation will be seriously affected

Increased rate of evapotranspiration

Sub-tropical areas currently growing temperate

crops vegetables and potatoes will be affected due

to shot growing season

EFFECT AT CROP LEVEL

Plant grown under elevated CO2 – less foliar

nitrogen and more carbon-based compounds

reducing the nutritional quality for herbivores

Stress mediated gene expression may alter

defense mechanism and plant volatile production

those are important for intra-specific relations

EFFECTS ON HERBIVORES(TEMPERATURE)

The logical assumption is

that increases in

temperature permit more

rapid rates of

development, with the

consequence that

multivoltine insects

may be capable of

increasing the number

of generations per year.

Whitefly: LC 48.7 days at 17°C to 13.9

days at 29°C. Survivorships from egg to

adult was 67.3% at 26°C, 27.6% and

29.0% at 35°C and 17°C respectively.

average longevity of females ranged from

39.6 days at 20°C to 12.8 days at 35°C.

Oviposition per female varied from 164.8

eggs at 20°C to 78.5 eggs at 32°C.

Thrips: LC: 10.1 d at 32.5°C to 40.3

d at 15°C. Adult thrips lived from 5.3

d at 35°C to 45.9 d at 15°C. larval to

adult survival (80.6%) was found at

25°C and the lowest (50%) at 32.5°C.

No larvae hatched from eggs

incubated at 35°C.Ref: 1. Qiu, B. S. Ren, N.S. Mandour, L. Lin . 2008. Effect Of Temperature On The Development And Reproduction Of Bemisia tabaci B Biotype

(Homoptera: Aleyrodidae) Insect Science,10:1: 43 – 49.

2. K. Varikou, K., I. Tsitsipis, V. Alexandrakis and M. Hoddle. 2009. Effect of Temperature on the Development and Longevity of Pezothrips

kellyanus (Thysanoptera: Thripidae). Annals of the Entomological Society of America 102(5):835-841.

EFFECTS ON HERBIVORES (CONTD..)

(PHOTOPERIODIC CUES)

Insect developmental rates can vary with

fluctuations in annual temperatures, but

responses to photoperiod, which changes with

precision every year (de Wilde, 1962), do not.

May alter diapause in response to photoperiodic

cues within a population

The interaction of changes in temperature and photoperiod cues

and resulting effects on insects are very challenging to predict.

EFFECTS ON HERBIVORES (CONTD..)

Main effects will come form temperature, humidity and poorquality of food

The synchrony between the host and insect may alter (good forpest control)

Poor quality of plant foliage encourage more feeding (low nitrogencontent) by herbivores esp. leps and miners but less is known onsucking pests

Herbivore feeding from such plant (increased CO2 and temp)tends to grow slower and take long to develop, reduced fecundityand suffers heavier mortality (Watt et al., 1995)

Invasive species – new environmental condition with otherfactors will encourage invasive species

Thermal and desiccation responses – relative resistance tothermal extremes, may reduce ability of parasitoid to locate hostsor fecundity (50%) (eg. Trichograma sp. above 35oC, Thompson et.al. 2001)

Host –NE synchrony -

EFFECTS ON NATURAL ENEMIES

Effects of CC on NEs that are mediated by CO2,

temperature and moisture effects on plant can be

complex. The effectiveness of NE can be

decreased because they have to deed on a lesser

quality host, and in situation where hosts are

difficult to locate. In cases their effectiveness may

increase as hosts are smaller (easy to subdue)

with longer development period available.

EFFECTS ON NATURAL ENEMIES

(CONTD.)

With altered plant phenology, herbivore growth andabundance will increase – affecting the abundance of hostand prey for NE

In general, fitness of predators and parasitoids will decline(Wang et. al., 2007), e.g. spiders (Hvam & Toft, 2005),predatory bug (Butler & O’Neil 2007), & Carabid beetle(Blide & Toft, 1999)

Host size, diet, stage of development will affect parasitoidlarval and adult biomass (quality of host esp. affectkoinobiont parasitoids, whose host continue to feed afterparasitization)

Decrease in prey size will result in more consumption bypredators (better pest control, Coll & Hughes, 2008) –better subduing (??). But more searching time (underelevated CO2) due to more plant foliage.

Generalist predators more effective in pest control

EFFECTS ON NATURAL ENEMIES (CONTD..)

Similarly more parasitism is expected under

elevated CO2 e.g. bracon parasitoids of aphids

(Chen et al., 2007)

Longer growing period of host – more time for

predation and for parasitism – result in better

pest control

Other documented effects

Whereas the drought triggers better encapsulation

of mealy bugs (30-50%) on Cassava leading to

less parasitism

EFFECTS ON NATURAL ENEMIES

(CONTD..)

Environmental stress trigged gene-expression in

plant can affect herbivores and in turn the pest

and NE e.g. Soya bean , stress affected by down-

regulating gene expression for a protease specific

deterrent to the coleopteran (Zavala et al., 2008)

PREDICTING EFFECTS ON HOST PLANTS,

HERBIVORES AND NATURAL ENEMIES

Thomson, L.J., et al. Predicting the effects of climate change on natural enemies of

agricultural pests. Biological Control. (2009), doi:10.1016/j.biocontrol.2009.01.022

Abundance Reduced

Abundance increased

Altered

timing of instars

Increased

development Time

Decreased Size

Decreased Fitness

Decreased Host density

Increased

Aphid Density

Increased Abundance

Increased abundance

Abundance Reduced

Abundance Reduced

Decreased Fitness

More attack time

Increased Predation

Decreased fitness

Increased search time

Longer

development time

Increased Abundance

Increased Abundance

Description of effects

Herbivore effect Natural Enemy effect

Pest Control

1. Crop Plant Growth

A. Loss of synchrony

between plant and

host development

B. Lower Plant Quality

c. Increased plant

biomass

D. Other effects on plant

quality

E. Down-regulated

feeding inhibition

Potential

increase abundance

Decreased

Abundance

Description of effects

Herbivore effect Natural Enemy effect

Pest Control

2. Distribution Shift

Decreased Abundance

Decreased foodA. i. Crops outside

range of herbivore

A. ii. Crops outside

range of NE but not

herbivores

Altered abundance

None present or

encounter new ones

B. Range expansion or

contraction of

herbivores

Potential

altered abundance

Increase or decrease

C. Range expansion or

contraction of NE

Potential

increased abundence

Decreased

success in locating host

A. Herbivore more

resistant to climatic

variability than NE

3. Thermal / Humidity Responses

Different

emergence time to NE

Different

emergence

time to Host/ prey

A. Development rate of

herbivore hosts and

NE to temp. differs

4. Host-Enemy synchrony

# Less control eventually although control might also increase for a short period

?

?

Can promote

slugs / some insect-pest

?

?

Depends if

vegetation supports pests

?

Can promote NE

Increased abundance

Potential

increase in abundance

?

Potential

increase in abundance

Description of effects

Herbivore effect Natural Enemy effect

Pest Control

5. Management Options

A. Reduced Irrigation

B. Water conservation

through mulching

C. Reduce tillage

D. Cover crop

development

E. Development

/adoption of new

varieties with higher

tolerance for

extremes

F. Residue vegetation,

shelter belt

EFFECT ON PLANT PATHOGENS

Change in plant architecture Microclimate risk of

infection

+ Plant density Leaf surface wetness & duration

risk of infection

Abiotic stress increase susceptibility to pathogen

Change in rainfall, annual temperature cycles will affect

the seasonal and persistent pathogens like potato late

blight (last year heavy infection in Indian continent in

early season)

Elevated ozone can change leaf surface including the

structure of epicuticular wax – may increase pathogen

spore retention

High ozone may lead to more attach of necurotrophic , root-

rot fungi (Sandermann H. Jr.2000).

EFFECT ON PLANT PATHOGENS / MICROBES (CONTD..)

Change in temperature lead to geographic

expansion of pathogens, bring pathogen into

contact with new hosts and increase chances of

pathogen hybridization. (increase in goods and

trades across the world..is another area..)

Wheat stripe rust in S Africa increasing with

rainfall and native grass infection;

Soil microbial communities will change (linked to C02,

Temp. and nitrogen deposition)- Soil nitrate concentration

reduces under elevated CO2

More aggressive strains of pathogen

EF

FE

CT

SO

NH

EM

IPE

TE

RA

NB

OR

NE

PL

AN

TV

IRU

SE

SEffect of altered climate on individuals and

populations of hosts and vectors

On Plants:

-Higher latitude altitude expansion shift in the

geo. Area of host and vectors

- temp. shift in seasonal peaks & vectors

population and in growing seasons of crop and

wild plants

- Increasing frequency of extreme weather events

-Alteration in geographical distribution of plants

and predators

-Alteration in relative frequencies of vector, plant

and virus species and in nature of their

interaction

-New combination of reservoir hosts vectors possible

Factors attenuating / exacerbating the effects of climate

change on the speared of viruses

-Attenuation by adaptation to altered environmental condition

by individual

-- Global trade mediated expansion of hosts, viruses, (invasive

species)

-Human-led attenuation strategies – Use of environment, insect

or virus tolerant plants, including transgenic, seasonal and

temporal shifts

On Insect Vector

a.) Increasing no. of insect generation

b.) Extending the length of insect flying season

c.) Altering insect’s fitness and behavior due to

change in leaf C:N ratio, temp. and also due toimpact of temperature

Effect of altered ambient temp. & CO2

parameters on individual hosts and

vectors:

On Plants:

a.) enhancing temp. sensitive resistance to

viruses based on nucleic acid technology (gene

silencing);

b.) Weakening some temp. sensitive protein

mediated resistance in virus

c.) altering process like photosynthesis and

secondary metabolism that affects leaf

composition and C:N ratio

d.) increasing stomatal closing & leaf temp.

Direct effect

Indirect effect

Factors exacerbating

Ref: Canto et al., 2009

SOME LESSONS FOR THE IPM PROGRAMMES?

Some ideas of this section are from : Mishra A. 2009. AIT/WBI SE Asia Workshop Presentation.

The workshop report can be seen at

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

BROAD LEVEL

Autonomous adaptation - all the time farming

practices changes to adapt for the changing

environment, e.g. adapting new varieties,

irrigation methods, chemicals

Planned adaptation – based on informed

interventions (by increasing adaptive capacity by

mobilizing institutions and policies)

- Climate information

- Support new research, extension and links

- building mechanisms for cc in all industrial development & other land use

- New infrastructure

- Institutional capacity to make continuing adjustment and improvements

Adaptation strategies

(LEVEL OF IPM PROGRAMMES)

Improving monitoring skills of trainers, farmers

To access carefully the impact of future climatechange on the managed and unmanaged ecosystems,it is crucial to monitor local climate and naturalchanges in species adaptation, if any. Someexperiences are available

e.g. late blight management based on improved AESA as Decisionmaking tool for potato (take temp and rH into account)

Use strategies for efficient conservation of water, organic and other natural resources

Strategies include: soil and water conservation, betterrun-off management, improved rainfed harvesting,improved management of irrigation systems andwaste water.

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

Similarly, other resources like soil carbon and nutrients

conservation will reduce dependency on fossil fuel based

fertilization process, sue of green manure

Reduce greenhouse gas emission from rice

Global methane emissions (a greenhouse gas

responsible for global warming) from rice paddies

could be cut by 30 per cent if fields are drained at

least once during the growing season and rice

crop waste is applied off-season, according to a

study.

Adaptation strategies

Implement sustainable agricultural practices:

Development and adoption of technologies consistent with theprinciples of sustainable development such as minimum/notill system, crop livestock integration, intercropping, use ofgreen mulch and manure, use of crop residues, etc.

Seek active participation of local community onsoil and water management

The natural resource management must be sensitive to socialand even cultural perception as well as traditional resourcemanagement practices.

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

Planting materials

Seeds and variety testing for changing and

expected crop growth environment

Changing dynamics of the pests esp. sucking

pests for vegetable crops – adapting training

curricula, session guides and adaptation

management options.

Developing active collaborations with research

institutions, market, GAP etc.

----

DO WE NEED TO PAINT OURSELVES ‘GREEN’!!

OR THINK, PLAN AND ACT ‘GREEN’???

Thank you..very much for kind attention!!!!

EXTRA

Up-regulated genes included those involved in

cellular metabolism, cellular transport, signal

transduction, and transcriptional regulation.

Down-regulated genes include those involved

in cell wall synthesis, as well as cellulases, and

germin-like proteins. The results can be linked to

well-known processes occurring at a large scale

within a plant, such as stomatal closure and

inhibition of lead growth, changes in lead architecture and change in root:shoot ratio.