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Building a Weather-Ready Nation Impact-based Decision Support to Reservoir Operators for Extreme Climate Events 16 th Annual CPASW May 22-24, 2018 NDSU Fargo, ND Steve Buan & Brian Connelly NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Impact-based Decision Support to Reservoir Operators for

Extreme Climate Events

16th Annual CPASW May 22-24, 2018 NDSU Fargo, ND

Steve Buan & Brian Connelly NWS North Central River Forecast Center

North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, MN

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Island Lake Reservoir

Lake Superior

Minnesota

North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, MN

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

U.S. Drought Monitor

North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, MN

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

U.S. Drought Monitor

North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, MN

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Island Lake Gate Structure June 2003

~6 feet

Reservoir dynamic range = 11 feet

North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, MN

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Operating Curve

North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, MN

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Historical Pond Levels

2003 2010 2002

North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, MN

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

IDSS Delivery Mechanism

North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, MN

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

www.mnpower.com/Environment/WaterTable

15 year decision history

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Wisconsin River Forecast Collaboration During Extreme

Events

Brian Connelly Senior Hydrologist

NWS North Central River Forecast Center [email protected]

North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, MN

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Wisconsin River Basin

• Drainage area ~ 12,000 sq mi • More than 57 storage reservoirs

and hydroelectric dams • 11 Operating organizations • 17 NWS river forecast points

Since 2010 collaborative forecast process involving dam operators and the NWS

North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, MN

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Wisconsin River Profile

North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, MN

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Example: March, 2016

2”-4” of rain fell over much of the Wisconsin River Basin March 16-17, 2016 The winter snow pack melted off about a week prior.

North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, MN

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Petenwell Reservoir

North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, MN

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Castle Rock Reservoir

North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, MN

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Portage Hydrograph

Crest reduced 1.5 ft from 21.1 ft to 19.6 ft Impacts avoided • Numerous flooded roads

and highways • Homes flooded

North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, MN

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Collaboration Plots

North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, MN

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Enhancements

• All plots now available automatically all the time on public website

• Additional simulations based on 95% and 5% exceedance probability QPF

• Developing a Story Map interface

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

QUESTIONS?

[email protected] [email protected]

National Weather Service

North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, MN

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