Immunizations

Best Strategies how to avoid Problems with Falsification

Tomá² Ondrá£ek

Masaryk University,Faculty of Economics and Administration,

Department of Corporate Economy,BRAK

Pozna«2017

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

Freud, Freud, Strachey and Richards (1964:257)

[well-known man of science] gave expression to an opinion uponanalytic technique which was at once derogatory and unjust. Hesaid that in giving interpretations to a patient we treat him uponthe famous ` principle of `Heads I win, tails you lose'. That isto say, if the patient agrees with us, then the interpretation is right;but if he contradicts us, that is only a sign of his resistance, whichagain shows that we are right. In this way we are always in theright against the poor helpless wretch whom We are analysing, nomatter how he may respond to what we put forward. Now, sinceit is in fact true that a `No' from one of our patients is not as arule enough to make us abandon an interpretation as incorrect, arevelation such as this of the nature of our technique has been mostwelcome to the opponents of analysis.

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

questions

questions

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

questions

questions

I What are immunizing strategies?

I Are they a sign of a pseudo-science?

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

Popper

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

conventionalist stratagems

against conventionalism

Conventionalism

Only the `laws of nature' are simple; and these, the conventional-ist holds, are our own free creations; our inventions; our arbitrarydecisions and conventions.

Popper (2005a:58)

The only way to avoid conventionalism is by taking a decision:the decision not to apply its methods.

Popper (2005a:61)

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

conventionalist stratagems

Popper (2005a:60�61): types of stratagems

I Conventionalist StratagemsI ad hoc hypothesesI modi�cation of `ostensive de�nitions' (or the `explicit de�nitions')I adoption of a sceptical attitude

I the reliability of the experimenter justi�cation (insu�ciently supported,unscienti�c, or not objective)

I the reliability of the experimenter herself (liar)

I the abilities of the theoretician (without acumen)

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

conventionalist stratagems

other stratagems

The list makes no claim to completeness: it must be left tothe investigator, especially in the �elds of sociology and psy-chology (the physicist may hardly need the warning) to guardconstantly against the temptation to employ new conventionaliststratagems�a temptation to which psycho-analysts, for example,often succumb.

Popper (2005a:62)

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

Others

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

de�nitions

other immunizing strategies

Immunizing Strategies and Epistemic Defense MechanismsMaarten Boudry & Johan Braeckman

We de�ne an `immunizing strategy' as an argument brought for-ward in support of a belief system, though independent from thatbelief system, which makes it more or less invulnerable to rationalargumentation and/or empirical evidence.

Boudry and Braeckman (2011:146)

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

de�nitions

epistemic defense mechanisms

By contrast, an epistemic `defense mechanism' is de�ned as an in-ternal structural feature of a belief system, which has the same e�ectof de�ecting rational arguments and empirical refutations.

Boudry and Braeckman (2011:146)

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

de�nitions

Boudry and Braeckman (2011:146):

differences

I immunizing strategiesI gainedI alienI making possibility of rational refutation higher or lower

I epistemic defense mechanismsI ownI making possibility of rational refutation higher or lower

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

examples

Boudry and Braeckman (2011):

Immunizing Strategies and Epistemic Defense Mechanisms

I Conceptual Equivocations & Moving TargetsI Multiple EndpointsI De�ationary Revisions

I Postdiction and Feedback LoopsI Conspiracy Thinking

I Turning the Evidence on its HeadI Explaining the Motives for Disbelief

I Changing the Rules of PlayI Invisible Escape Clauses

I Tailoring Around the Phenomena

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

examples

Multiple Endpoints and Moving Targets

You've never been all that afraid to be di�erent, and it's just thatquality that helps you ensure that your radical ideas are implemen-ted. Others are afraid to change, but you're a visionary who can seewhich way the tide is turning before almost anyone else. It's timefor you to stand apart from the pack and rely on your ability tothink ahead and consider what can make things better in the longrun.

astrology.com (2017)

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

examples

Deflationary Revisions

JWfacts (2017)

I 1914: End of the world

I 1918: End of the harvest work

I 1920: ends for Christendom and all government

I 1925: the commencement of the earthly paradise and the resurrectiononto earth of people such as Abraham, Isaac and Jacob

I 1951: time of the end

I 1975: the end would occur

When Prophecy Fails:A Social and Psychological Study of a Modern Group That Predicted the Destruction of the World

by Leon Festinger

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

examples

Deflationary Revisions

Switcheroos

One commits a switcheroo by starting with a hypothesis that'samenable to a range of interpretations, giving arguments that sup-port a weak version, and thenceforth pretending that one of thestronger versions has been established.

(Kukla, 2000:x)

Reverse-Switcheroos

[. . . ] you put forth a strong version of the hypothesis, and when itgets into trouble, you retreat to a weaker version, pretending thatit was the weaker thesis that you had in mind all along.

(Kukla, 2000:x)

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

examples

Postdiction and Feedback Loops

I Rainmaking (ritual)

I psychotherapy as a science (if-then theory, see Rogers (1957, 1959)

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

examples

Conspiracy Thinking

I Turning the Evidence on its HeadI non-evidence as evidenceI contra-evidence as pro-evidence

I Explaining the Motives for DisbeliefI Are you part of a solution or a problem?

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

examples

Changing the Rules of Play

I uniqueness

I No-Position Position (Shackel, 2005)

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

examples

Invisible Escape Clauses, Tailoring Around the Phenomena

I psi and negative psi

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

other case of immunizations

moralistic fallacy

I Davis (1978:390): Moralistic Fallacy

[. . . ] derive an `is' from an `ought' [. . . ]

I Ridley (1998:257�58): Reverse Naturalistic FallacyI Hume (2007/1738�40:302):

[. . . ] when of a sudden I am surpriz'd to �nd,that instead of the usual copulations of propositions, is, and is not,I meet with no proposition that is not connectedwith an ought, or an ought not [. . . ]

I Pinker (2002:162�163):

[. . . ] `ought' implies `is' [. . . ]

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

other case of immunizations

moralistic fallacy: examples

I race & inteligence(Gould, 1996:106)

And they con�rmed all the common prejudices of comfortable white males� thatblacks, women, and poor people occupy their subordinate roles by the harsh dictatesof nature.

(Rushton & Jensen, 2005:333)

Because Blacks and Whites ought to be equal in IQ and educational outcome butstill are not, some who adopt a moralistic position hold, in e�ect, that White people'sattitudes are largely to blame [. . . ]

I theory of science(Stroebe, Postmes & Spears, 2012:677)

[. . . ] scienti�c fraud happens rarely, and when it does, 'it occurs in a system thatoperates in an e�ective, democratic and selfcorrecting mode' that makes detectioninevitable [peer review process, replications . . . ]

I . . .

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

Conclusion

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

Popper

conventions

My criterion of demarcation will accordingly have to be regarded asa proposal for an agreement or convention.

(Popper, 2005a:15)

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

Popper

some bad immunizations

But when a little later I tentatively introduced the idea of falsi�-ability (or testability or refutability) of a theory as a criterion ofdemarcation, I very soon found that every theory can be �immun-ized� (this excellent term is due to Hans Albert) against criticism.If we allow such immunization, then every theory becomes unfalsi�-able. Thus we must exclude at least some immunizations.

(Popper, 2005b:43)

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

Popper

some good immunizations

On the other hand, I also realized that we must not exclude allimmunizations, not even all which introduced ad hoc auxiliary hy-potheses. For example the observed motion of Uranus might havebeen regarded as a falsi�cation of Newton's theory. Instead theauxiliary hypothesis of an outer planet was introduced ad hoc, thusimmunizing the theory. This turned out to be fortunate; for theauxiliary hypothesis was a testable one, even if di�cult to test, andit stood up to tests successfully.All this shows not only that some degree of dogmatism is fruit-ful, even in science, but also that logically speaking falsi�ability, ortestability, cannot be regarded as a very sharp criterion.

(Popper, 2005b:43)

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

Popper

rejection

I had not seen that immunization was always possible, and hadtherefore overlooked the fact that since all theories could be rescuedfrom falsi�cation none could simply be described as �falsi�able�.In other words my own results were, in these legends, turned intoreasons for rejecting my approach.

(Popper, 2005b:44)

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

others

Derksen

Yet, immunizing is not always reprehensible. In fact, as far as theargumentation is concerned there is nothing wrong with immuniz-ation. Immunization is nothing but arguing on the assumed truthof one's theory. There is nothing against this, as long as the theoryis well-con�rmed. Immunization becomes reprehensible only whenit is unfounded.

(Derksen, 1993:24)

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

conclusion

immunizations

Immunizations

I not merely badI not merely arguments

I fallacies

I wrongful prevention from criticismI derailed strategic maneuvering

I intentional use of unfounded persuasion techniquesI rational or not

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

end note

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

(Gardner, 1957:8�9): Scientific ideal?

To me truth is precious.... I should rather be right and stand alonethan to run with the multitude and be wrong... . The holding ofthe views herein set forth has already won for me the scorn andcontempt and ridicule of some of my fellowmen. I amlooked uponas being odd, strange, peculiar. ... But truth is truth and thoughall the world reject it and turn against me, I will cling to truth still.

Charles Silvester de Ford

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

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bibliography I

astrology.com. (2017). Aquarius 7. 11. 2017. Retrieved fromhttps://www.astrology.com/horoscope/daily/aquarius.html

Boudry, M. & Braeckman, J. (2011). Immunizing strategies and epistemicdefense mechanisms. Philosophia, 39(1), 145�161.

Combe, G. (1835). Engraving of craniometer from elements of phrenology.

Retrieved from https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/

7/70/Craniometer.Elements.of.phrenology.George.Combe.1.png

(picture; online; accessed 2016-11-13)Davis, B. D. (1978). The moralistic fallacy. Nature, 272(5652), 390.Derksen, A. A. (1993). The seven sins of pseudo-science. Journal for General

Philosophy of Science, 24(1), 17�42.Freud, S., Freud, A., Strachey, J. & Richards, A. (1964). The standard edition

of the complete psychological works of sigmund freud (Vol. XXIII).Hogarth Press.

Gardner, M. (1957). Fads and fallacies in the name of science. CourierCorporation.

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

bibliography II

Gould, S. J. (1996). The mismeasure of man. WW Norton & Company.Hume, D. (2007/1738�40). A Treatise of Human Nature. Oxford University

Press.JWfacts. (2017). Changed dates :: Failed predictions. Retrieved from

https://www.jwfacts.com/watchtower/1800s.php

Kukla, A. (2000). Social constructivism and the philosophy of science.Routledge.

Pinker, S. (2002). The blank slate: The modern denial of human nature.Penguin Books.

Popper, K. (2005a). The logic of scienti�c discovery. Routledge.Popper, K. (2005b). Unended quest: An intellectual autobiography. Routledge.

Ridley, M. (1998). The origins of virtue: Human instincts and the evolution of

cooperation. Penguin Books.Rogers, C. R. (1957). The necessary and su�cient conditions of therapeutic

personality change. Journal of Consulting Psychology, 21, 95�103.

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations

Introduction Popper Others Conclusion end note References

bibliography III

Rogers, C. R. (1959). A theory of therapy, personality, and interpersonal

relationships: As developed in the client-centered framework (Vol. 3).McGraw-Hill New York.

Rushton, J. P. & Jensen, A. R. (2005). Wanted: More race realism, lessmoralistic fallacy. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 11(2), 328.

Shackel, N. (2005). The vacuity of postmodernist methodology.Metaphilosophy, 36(3), 295�320.

Stroebe, W., Postmes, T. & Spears, R. (2012). Scienti�c misconduct and themyth of self-correction in science. Perspectives on Psychological Science,7(6), 670�688.

Tomá² Ondrá£ek Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Corporate Economy, BRAK

Immunizations