immigration issues overview -azgf conf...
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Understanding Immigration:Key Issues in Immigration Debates and Prospects for Reform
Presented by
Judith Gans Immigration Policy Project [email protected]
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Udall Center Immigration Program Objectives
Illuminate rather than advocate
Focus on conceptual and analytic frameworksEngage a discussion at the political center Examine trade-offs
Research and publicationsProvide credible informationAvoid specific ‘outcome’ agenda
National and Arizona focus
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Topics
Global and national context
Key issues in immigration debates Economic impactsCosts and contributionsIllegal ImmigrationNational security
Policy debates and prospects for reform
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A World-Wide Phenomenon
UN estimates 190 to 200 million immigrants … ≈ 3.3% of the world's population
30% in the Americas (Canada & US = 42 million immigrants)20% in EuropeRemaining 50% around world with largest share in Asia
Cause and consequence of global economic integration… in everything except labor
Global remittances estimated at $150 billion per year
Source: Papademetriou, Demetrios G., “The Global Struggle with Illegal Immigration: No End in Sight”, Washington DC: Migration Policy Institute, September 1, 2005.
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U.S. Laws Limit Economic Migration
Architecture of family reunification
Economic migration laws seek to:Minimize competition with U.S. workersProvide for scarce labor- Seasonal agricultural workers- Other seasonal workers- High skilled workers
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Immigration to the U.S. Growing
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2004
Num
ber
(000
s)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Perc
ent
Number % of Total Population
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35.7 Million Foreign Born in U.S.(2004 estimates*)
* Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
Unauthorized Immigrants
10.3 million (29%)
Legal Permanent Residents
10.4 million (29%)
Naturalized Citizens
11.3 million (32%)
Temporary Legal Residents
1.2 million (3%)
Refugee Arrivals2.5 million (7%)
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More and Different Countries of Origin
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
1870 1920 1970 1990
Europe Asia Latin America All Other
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Significant Demographic Impacts
20% of U.S. births occur to foreign-born mothers
Directly and indirectly, immigration accounts for ≈ 60% of U.S. population growth
Source: Bean, Fank & Gillian Stevens, America’s Newcomers and the Dynamics of Diversity, New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2003.
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Economics Impacts
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Immigrants Embedded in Labor Market
Slow U.S. population growth, tight labor markets, and high wages
Between 1990-2001, immigrants accounted for over 50% of growth in the civilian labor force
Example:
Between 1996 and 2000 (Economic boom)U.S. economy generated 14.3 million new jobs U.S. population increased by 12.3 million people including immigration
Strong ‘pull’ factor
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2002
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Changed Profile of U.S. Labor
Increases in proportion of low-skilled and high-skill laborSome crowding out of native-born workersProviding for scarce labor (i.e. agricultural labor, high tech workers)
In the Short Run: Lowers wages of some native born workers
In the Long Run: Shifts the mix of economic output with little or no impact on wages
Source: Hanson, Gordon G., “Why Does Immigration Divide America: Public Finance and Political Opposition to Open Borders”, University of San Diego and NBER, March 2005.
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Income Growth Has Varied
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Sources of Income: Arizona4th Quarter 2004 to 1st Quarter 2005: Total = 2.4%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Admin & Waste Svd
Utilities
Arts, ent & rec
Farm
Military
Accommod & Food Svc
State & Local Govt.
Wholesale Trade
Finance & InsuranceProf & Tech Services
Health CareConstructionRetail Trade
Contribution to Growth
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Impacts Not Uniform
Net economic impact is small (positive) but…Large impacts on income distributionDistribution impacts shape opinions about immigration
Benefits and costs distributed unevenlyOwners of capital, owners of land, and employers gain most Taxpayers in high immigrant-receiving states bear immediate fiscal costs
Source: Hanson, Gordon G., “Why Does Immigration Divide America: Public Finance and Political Opposition to Open Borders”, University of San Diego and NBER, March 2005.
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Costs and Contributions- Fiscal Impacts -
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Net Fiscal ImpactsCentral to Immigration Debates
State and local impacts more negativeTaxes paid vs. services used
Social service benefitsEducationHealth Care
Federal impacts more positiveTaxes paid vs. services used
Social SecurityFederal social service benefits
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Net Fiscal Impacts Are Conditional
Low-skilled immigrants: earn relatively low wagescontribute relatively little in taxeslegal immigrants make greater use of public assistance programs than do natives
Impact depends both on:Size and mix of immigrant populationGenerosity of state public services
Impacts require long-term horizon
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Political Challenge:
Immigration increasingly equated with illegal immigration
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Causes of Illegal Immigration… Economic Incentives Trump Legal Structures
1. Global economic integration
2. Inadequate provision for legal economic immigration
3. Failure to sanction employers for hiring unauthorized immigrants due to:
i. No reliable means for verifying employment eligibilityii. Inadequate funding of interior enforcement;iii. Limited political will due to U.S. labor needs
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Unauthorized Arrivals Exceed Legal Arrivals Since Mid-1990s2004 Foreign-born population by period of arrival and legal status as of 2004
Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
650
140
670
450
660
750
610
700
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1980s 1990-94 1995-1999 2000-Mar 04
Legal in 2004 Illegal in 2004
(000s)
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Most Unauthorized Immigrants From Latin America(Share of estimated 10.3 unauthorized immigrants)
* Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
Mexico5.9 million (56%)Other Latin America
2.5 million (24%)
Asia1 million (10%)
Europe & Canada0.6 million (6%)
Africa & Other0.4 million (4%)
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Illegal Immigration Matters…
- To the immigrants themselves - To the United States
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Immigration Status Impacts Employment
15%
33%
6%
17%
10%
16%
27%
13%
35%
10%
6%8%
1%3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
ServiceOccupations
Construction &Extractive
Production,Repair &
Installation
Sales &Administration
Management,Business &Professional
Transportation& Moving
Industries
Farming
Native-born Workers Unauthorized Workers
Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
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Immigration Status Impacts Income(Incomes, 2003 Family Size 2004)
Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
$47,700 $47,800
$27,400
1.962.34 2.29
$24,300$20,400
$12,000
Average Family Income Average Family Size Income Per Person
Native-born Families Legal Immigrant Families Unauthorized Families
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Immigration Status Impacts Educational Attainment of Children (Share of each group’s 18-24 year old population, 2004)
Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
9
25
49
32
25 2529
18
10
3032
15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Less than 12th Grade High School Grad Some College Batchelors or More
Native-Born Legal Immigrants Unauthorized Immigrants
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Illegal Immigration Matters to the U.S.
Failure to control borders: Undermines sovereignty & rule of lawCreates national security risksUndermines formulation of coherent policyMakes the border a dangerous place
“It is difficult to open the front door without closing the back door.”
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Immigration & National Security
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Immigration and National Security
National security requires more than border control
The 9/11 terrorists entered legallyEnforcement not a substitute for intelligence
Yet… border control imperatives are obvious
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Enforcement Has Focused on the Border
2,842,000
700,000
109,000
458,000192,000
1,633,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Dolla
rs (0
00s)
Border Control Interior Investigations Detention & Removal/Intelligence
Source: Migration Policy Institute analysis of data from US Department of Justice Immigration and Naturalization Service, Budget Requests to Congress, 1985-2002; and Budget of the United States Government, Appendix, 1985-2003.
Spending by Type of Enforcement: 1985 - 2002
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Enforcement Has Been Uneven
Historical ambivalence about enforcementFocus at border while interior enforcement is minimalNo reliable system for verifying immigration
Historical ambivalence about controlling immigration – extent of control modulated by
Limits to visible categoriesAdjustments to numbers of temporary visasAdjustments to enforcement intensity
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Prospects for Reform
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Politics of Reform
System seen as broken
Political stalemate
“Enforcement before reform” vs. “Reform in order to enforce”
What to do with 11 million unauthorized immigrants?
“Earned regularization” vs. “Amnesty”
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Ingredients of an Enforceable System
Streamlining
Legal economic migration channels
Interior and border enforcementReliable mechanisms for verifying employment eligibilityAdequate funding and staffingPolitical will
Adequate funding of immigration infrastructure
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Temporary Worker Programs
One mechanism for economic immigration
Polarization over existing unauthorized population – what to do with 11 million people?
Limited provision for permanent economic immigration
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‘Importing’ Labor is Complicated
Workers vs. citizens
Facilitates:Limiting rightsSocial divisionsInherent power imbalance
Works against immigrant incorporation to society
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Politics of Immigration Debates
*From Tichenor, Daniel, Dividing Lines: The Politics of Immigration Control in America, Princeton University Press, Princeton University, 2002.
Classic Exclusionists
Tom Tancredo (R-CO)
Free-Market Expansionists
Jeff Flake (R-AZ)
Restrictive
Nationalist Egalitarians
Diane Feinstein (D-CA)Cosmopolitans
Edward Kennedy (D-MA)Expansive
RestrictedExpanded or MaintainedImmigrant Rights Should Be
Immigrant Admission Should Be
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Major Themes and Conclusions
Today’s immigration reflects a global economy
Economic and fiscal impacts are complex
Current laws reflects complex political cross-currents and interests
Reform will be difficult and political voice is uneven