Philip Martin: plmartin@ucdavis.eduImmigration & Farm Labor

Highlights• Hired workers: average employ, 425,000 in 2015;

unique farm workers, 850,000: up 10% since 2005• Hired farm workers = Mexican-born (90% in CA);

not authorized (55%); settled & aging (38-39)• Employer responses to fewer newcomers– Satisfy current workers: bonuses, super training. Growers

inelastic supply: wage increases do not = more workers– Stretch current workers: mechanical aids, change

production practices to make work easier; older & women– Substitution: labor-saving mechanization (& switch crops)– Supplement: young H-2A workers provide fresh blood, but

(1) recruit US, (2) provide housing, (3) pay AEWR ($12 CA)– Uncertainty: no one knows best combination

Average FTE employment and # workers up 10%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

2007 2012 2015

Average FTE Employment and Unique Farm Workers: 2007, 2012, 2015

FTE EmploymentWorkers

Since 2009: more workers are brought to crop farms by nonfarm employers than are hired directly by crop farms

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

200,000

210,000

220,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Average FTE Crop and Crop Support Employment, 2006-15

CropCrop Support

Why don’t US workers take $30,300 ag jobs?Fruits & FLCs are 55% of FTE employment: $18k & $10k

This image cannot currently be displayed.

3,000 US FLCs;; 1,400 in CA

FLCs: Increase efficiency of worker-­job

matching or act as risk absorbers?

Common crop support: harvesting tree fruitsHard to monitor workers in trees = piece rates

CA strawberries #1 ag employer: 90% of US 3 billion pounds from 40,000 acres, 60,000 to 70,000 workers

Vegetables: direct-­hire & workers via crop support firms (some

are partners)

Nursery & dairyBig 5 of 20: crop support, FVH, & dairy = 82% of $12.7 bil CA ag wages in 2015

Hired Crop Workers• Men born in Mexico: 90%; unauthorized 55%• Trends:

– Fewer newcomers (workers in US less than 1 year). From 20% to 2% today. Result: average age (38-39) up

– Settled & aging; families with US-born children; half get some means-tested benefits; few FTC migrants

• Employ and earns: more weeks, higher wages– Average $10.20/hour across US; $10.10 in CA in 2014– CA 36 weeks or 205 days of farm work– Average earnings $17,500-$20,000/year; almost $100 a

day• Farm work like nonfarm work: live off the farm,

commute to work, have 1 farm employer during year

Unauthorized newcomers down: settled & less mobileAmong unauthorized immigrants, a decline from Mexico but rise from elsewhere since 2009 In milli on:

exlcan

2.0

1,5 2.8

6.9

5.3 5.0

4.1 O h r

5.8 5.3

1990 1995 2000 2007 2009 2014

te: Shadingsurroundinglines indicates I~ and higt, points of the estimated 9cr; confiden e interval. The differen es in 1995and 2000 bet1 een Me icanand Other are notstatistical~ 1significantat 9Cr; confidence interval. Source: Pe I Research uenterestimates for 2005-2014 based on augmented 1\merican Communitf Survey data (IPUMS ; for 1995-2004 based on March Supplements of the current Population SuriJe_'. Estimates for 1990from arren and arren (2013 .

era II umberofU .S. Unauthori::ed Immigrants H Ids Stead_ Sirce 2009

PE\ RESEARCH CENTER

Larger share of unauthorized immigrants are long-term residents % ofadultunauthoriz.edimmigrants, bydurationofU.S. residenre

60

40

34

20

0 1995 2000

10 years or more

Less than 5 years

200 5

te: Data labels are for 1995, 2003 , 2005 and 2014.

2010 2014

Source: Pe • Research Center estimates for 2005-2014 based on augmented Americlln Oommunil) Sun.e_ data (IPUMS); for 1995, 1998, 2000 and 2003 based on March Supplements of the Current PopulationSun.e_. "Overall umberofU.S. Unauthorc:ed Immigrants Holds Stead_ Since 2009

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

Agriculture: among first to feel effects of fewer

unauthorized newcomers

Employers: 4-­S responses

• Satisfy current farm workers with bonuses, benefits, & better supervisors. If supply of workers in US = inelastic, wage increases do not add to supply

• Stretch with mechanical aids that increase productivity: conveyor belts in fields, dwarf trees. How much to invest, how fast to deploy?

• Substitute: labor-saving mechanization. Will wages keep rising to justify investments? Involve seed companies with long time horizons? (Switch crops?)

• Supplement the labor force with H-2As. Expand or change current program (1) no-recruitment (2) no-housing, and (3) reduced AEWR program? Allow H-2A workers in dairy & other year-round jobs? From 10-month to 3-year visas & Asians?

Satisfy: bonuses, benefits, supervisor training & respectMost farmers: satisfy will not ENLARGE ag workforce

Stretch: mechanical aids to raise worker productivity

Substitute: mechanize olives, carrots, tomatoes, nursery

Defense vs ag robots: performance vs costs

Supplement with H-­2As: 75,000 FY07, 165,000 FY16. CA & WA upOFFICE OF FOREIGN LABOR CERTIFICATION

H-2A Temporary Agricultura l Labor Certification Program - Selected Statistics, FY 2016

A 1 · R d1 Review of Positions Certified FY 2016 ,PPI 1cat1ons ece1ve

FY 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3

8,801 1,755 3,861 2,145

A I" t" .pp11ca ions p rocesse d Determination FY 2016 Q1 Q2

Total 8,684 1,146 3,649 Determinations

• Certified 8,297 1,064 3,553

- Denied 188 43 54

• Withdrawn 199 39 42

Posit ions 172,654 24,563 52,216 Reauested Positions 165,741 23,779 50,887 Certified Processed 95.0% 99.3% 90.5% Timelv2

Top States

5% 4%

3% - 3%

2%

%FY Q4 Change

FY15 1,040 16.4%

Q3 Q4

2,577 1,312

2,468 1,212

49 42

60 58

61,373 34,502

58,753 32,322

96.6% 98.1%

• Florida

• North Carolina

• Georgia

• Washington

• California

• Louisiana

Kentucky

• New York

Arizona

• South Carolina

Remaining States

Top 10 States

Top 10 Employers

% of total certified FY 2016

Florida 22 ,828

North Carolina 19,786

Georgia 17,392

Washington 13,689

California 11,106

Louisiana 8,301

Kentucky 6,779

New York 5,522

Arizona 5,391

Sout h Carol ina 3,896

North Carolina Growers 12,161 Assoc iation NCGA Washington Farm Labor 9,455 Assn . AFLA Fresh Harvest, Inc. 3,819

Rodrigo Gutierrez- Tap ia 3,182

Zirkle Fruit Company 2,596

Elkhorn Packing Company 2 ,304

Peri & Sons Farms , Inc. 2 ,003 Virginia Ag ricultural Growers 1,642 Assn . VAGA R and R Harvesting, Inc. 1,638

Alewelt Concrete, Inc. 1,343

Berries 3 15,335

Hay and Straw 4 10,066

13.8%

11.9%

10.5%

8.3%

6.7%

5.0%

4.1%

3.3%

3.3%

2.4%

7.3%

5.7%

2.3%

1.9%

1.6%

1.4%

1.2%

1.0%

1.0%

0.8%

9.3%

6.1%

H-­2A FY17 up 16% from FY16;; 200,000 jobs cert in FY17? EMPLOYMENT ANO TRAINING ADM IN ISTRATION, U.S. OOL

OFFICE OF FOREIGN LABOR CERTIFICATION H-2A Temporary Agricultural Labor Certification Program - Selected Statistics , FY 2017 YTD

lications Received Q1 Q2

2,355

Applications Processed Determination YTD Q1 Total 1,552 1,552 Determinations -C ertified 1,498 1,498

- Denied 28 28

-Withdrawn 26 26

Positions 29,067 29,067 Reauested1

Positions 28,116 28,116 Certified Processed 98.7% 98.7% Timelv2

Top States

1.8%

Top Crops

Q3

Q2

4.7%

• Oranges • Lettuce

Q4

Q3 Q4

• Florida

• Arizona

• Louisiana

• Washington

• California

• Georgia

• South Carolina

• Arkansas

• Texas

• Colorado

5.3% 4.1 % 4.1%4.0% 3.6% • Citrus /3.4% • Nursery & Green. Workers

• Livestock • General Farm Workers • Berries • Broccoli • Spinach • Crawfish • Remaining Crops

1 Positi ons requested derived from data not publicl y disclosed. 2 Percent of complete H-2A applications resolved 30 days before the start date of need . A complete H-2A application is defined as one contain ing a ll the documentation (e.g., housing inspection report , workers ' compen sation , recruitment report) necessary for the OFLC Certif ying Officer to issue a final determ ination 30 days befo re the start date of need.

Data as ofDeember 31, 2016 All figures are rounded and not audited

Selected Statistics bv Worker Positions Certified Review of Positions Certified FY 2017TD

(% of total certified FY 201TO)

Florida 9,863 35.1%

Arizona 4 ,308 15.3%

Louisiana 1,962 7.0%

Washington 1,834 6.5%

Top 10 California 1,615 5.7 % States Georgia 1,324 4.7 %

South Carolina 1,074 3.8%

Arkansas 831 3.0%

Texas 748 2.7%

Colorado 499 1.8%

Foothi lls Packing , Inc. 1,076 3.8%

Elkhorn Packing Co. , 1,075 3.8% LLC

WA FLA 921 3.3%

Fresh Harvest, Inc. 804 2.9%

Tanimura & Antle Fresh 695 2.5% Top10 Foods, Inc.

Employers The Growers Company, 528 1.9% Inc.

Overlook Harvesting 507 1.8% Comoanv, LLC A. Oseguera Company ,

490 1.7% Inc. Southern Gardens 431 1.5% Groves Coro . Citrus Harvesting, Inc. 400 1.4%

Orange s' 3,158 11.2 %

Lettuce' 2 ,634 9.4%

Citrus 2,580 9.2%

Nursery and Greenhouse 1,529 5 .4 %

Top10 Workers

Crops/ Livestocks 1,495 5.3% Occupations General Farm Workers 1,151 4 .1%

Berries6 1,142 4 .1%

Broccol i 1,120 4 .0%

Spinach 999 3.6%

Crawfish 960 3.4% 30range s Category includes listed Pnmary Crops of Oranges , Tangerines , and Valen a a Oranges . ' Lettuce Categ ory inc ludes listed Primary Crops of Lettu ce and Romaine . 5Livestock Category includes listed Primary Crops of Cattle , Goats , Livestock , Open Range Livestock , Pigs , and Sheep . 68errie s Category includes listed Primary Crops of Bluebenies and Strawberries

EMPLOYMENT AND TRAI NING ADMINISTRATION, U.S. DOL

OFFICE OF FOREIGN LABOR CERTIFICATION H-2A Temporary Agricultural Labor Certification Program - Selected Statistics, FY 2016

lications Received' % FY

01 02 03 04 Change FY15

1,755 3,861 2,145 1,040 16.4%

Applications Processed Determ lnatkm FY 2016 01 Total 8,684 1,146 Determinations • Certified 8,297 1,064

• Denied 188 43

-Withdrawn 199 39 Positions 172,654 24,563 Reauested Positions 165,741 23,779 Certified Processed 95.0% 99 .3% Tlmelv 2

Top States

Top Crops

02 03 04

3,649 2,577 1,312

3,553 2,468 1,212

54 49 42

42 60 58

52,216 61,373 34,502

50,887 58,753 32 ,322

90.5% 96.6 % 98.1%

• F lo rida

• North Carolina

• Georg ia

• Berri es

• Washington

• California

• Louisiana

• Kent uck y

• New York

• Arizona

• South Carolina

• Remaining States

• Hay and Straw

• Apples

• Tobacco

• General Farmworker

• Melons

• Sw eet Potatoes

• Lettuce

• Nursery & Greenhouse . ..

• Com

• Remaining Crops 1 Please note that applications received will not match posted disclosure data as this data set only includes adjudicated applications. 2 Percent of complete H-2A applications resolved 30 days before the start date of need. A complete H-2A applieation is defined as one containing all the documentation (e.g., housing inspection report, recruitment report) necessary for the OFLC Certifying Officer to issue a final determination 30 days before the start date of need. Data as of September 30, 2016. All figures are rounded and not audited.

Review of Positions Cert ifi ed FY 2016 (% of total certified FY 2016)

Florida 22,828 13.8%

North Carolina 19,786 11.9%

Georgia 17,392 10.5%

Washington 13,689 8.3%

Top 10 California 11,106 6.7% States Louisiana 8,301 5.0%

Kentucky 6,779 4 .1%

New York 5,522 3.3%

Arizona 5,391 3.3%

South Carolina 3,896 2.4% North Carolina Growers 12,161 7.3% Association (NCGAl Washington Farm Labor 9,455 5.7% Assn. (WAFLA) Fresh Harvest, Inc. 3,819 2.3%

Rodrigo Gutierrez-Tapia 3,182 1.9% Top 10 Zirkle Fruit Company 2,596 1.6% Employers

Elkhorn Packing Company 2,304 1.4%

Peri & Sons Farms, Inc. 2,003 1.2% Virginia Agricultu ral Growers 1,642 1.0% Assn. /VAGA) Rand R Harvesting, Inc. 1,638 1.0%

Alewelt Concrete, Inc. 1,343 0.8%

Berries3 15,335 9.3%

Hay and Straw 4 10,066 6.1%

Apples5 9,764 5.9%

Tobacco 6 9,269 5.6% Top 10 General Farmworker 8,717 5.3% Crops/ Occupations Melons7 8,513 5.1%

Sweet Potatoes 7,426 4 .5%

Lettuce8 7,060 4 .3% Nursery and Greenhouse 6,008 3.6% Workers Corn9 5,893 3.6%

,,; ;" " '" ' ' m ' R s:..:~ : ~ dud as stad rnary Crops o Barnas. B ackba as. 8 ueb8rnas. aspbamas. a d

4Hay and Straw ca tegory includas of listed Prma ry Crops of Alfalra and Hay and Straw 5Appl8S Catagay lndudas ol Hstad Primary Crops of Ajlpla [)-ops, Apples, D.¥arf Apples, and GraMy

"""" "tobacco Category Includes of list&d Primary-Crops of Air-ClX&d. Bur1ey, Cutting, Flue-Cured, Setting, Stripping and Tobacco 'Melon category indllOes oflis\00 Primary Crops of Cantaloopes. Melons . and Watermelons "Lettuce Cat&gOry Includes of list&d Primary Crops of Iceberg, Lettuoft and Romaine ' Com Category indudes of bt&d Primary Crops of Gorn and Sweat Com

CA: 3,000 in 2012, 8,600 in 2015, 11,000 in 2016 • CA: vegetable firms operate in Yuma & Salinas

– Border labor force is legal; BP agents check buses– H-2As to Salinas: house in motels or on-farm housing?

T&A: $8 million to house 800 workers in Spreckels, $10,000 per bed

– Old: largest CA H-2A user: Sierra-Cascade strawberry nursery (1,300 H-2As in Tulelake; WWII Japanese intern)

– New: Fresh Harvest, FLC certified to fill 4,000 jobs with H-2A workers in FY16

• Half of CA farm labor is in SJV, where fruit industry is concentrated, & less grower-shipper integration. H-2A expansion in CA led by coastal vegetable growers

• Some shippers: increase imports of FVH commodities, esp Mexican berries

AEWRs 2017: $12.57 in CA;; <$11 in southeast & AZ-­NM Highest: grains & OR-­WA $13.79

CA: 50% increase in minimum wage by 2022 (now $10.50)

6

4

12

8

6

4

2

So

p

• • o J .1, -----------------

..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

u .

or pr ( S , C iforni io

Big variance in median earnings: $18,000 Delano, $108,000 Los Altos Windfall gains for workers or job losses in SJV?

Eureka $23,949 Redding

$28,846

Chico $25,305

Sacramento $33,751

S.Lake Tahoe $26,266

-Folsom $62,363

Median annual earnings, by city California cities with at least 10,000 workers have median annual earnings of widely varying amounts, according to the most recent census data, rangingfrom more than $108,000 in Los Altos to less than $18,000 in Delano.

FIGHl CALl~ NIA

15 CA Cities (Rank out 0£387 U Metro I Joble ss Rate , I Local alary Equivalent to I 15 an Hour F :\1inimum Wage

Areas for Jan. Jobless Rates) I Jan. 2016 100,000 in San Francisco Adjusted for Local Cost or Living

El Centro (#387) 19.2% S4 l.92 I S6.29 Merced (#384) 12.8% $42.993 S6.45 Vi alia-Porterville (#383) 12.3% $43,652 $6.55 Hanford-Corcoran (#382) 11.4% $40,684 $6.10 Salinas (#38 1) 11.2% $52,638 S7.90

Los Altos $108,543

Fresno / $26,534

Yuba City (#3 79) I 0.9% S45.589 S6.84 Baker field (#378) 10.7% $42,869 6.43 Fresno (#377) 10.6% $43, 199 $6.48 - Delano

/$17,786

Madera (#376) 10.2% $42,457 $6.37 Modesto (#375) 9.4% $44,724 $6.71

$17,786 $108,543 Bakersfield $32,294

Manhattan Beach $85,855 Rancho Palos Verdes $68 ,512

Sources: Employme nt Development Department' s Occupat ional Employmen t Stat ist ics and Wages report and U.S. census· 2010-2014 Amer ican Commun ity Survey

San Bernardino _-$24, 822

Calexico $21,883

J SHARON OKADA sokada@sacbee.com

Projected median wage in 2022 in Fresno & Merced = $20Historic experiment: min wage of $15 = ¾ median wage

Ratio of minimum wage to median wage in 2022

Rough consensus among economists sympathetic to minimum wage increases:

BELOW 50% (mostly beneficial) 60% to 70% (serious concerns)

50% to 60% (may create difficulties) • ABOVE 70% (potentia/ty disruptive)

MEDIAN WAGE IN 2022 RATIO O $15 MINIM M (PROJECTED) TO MEDIAN WAGE

Redding Fresno $20.3

e Chico Meroed $20.3

Chico $2 .23 Sacramento

San Francisco Stockton Bakersfield $21.44

San Jose Redding $22.02 68 • Merced

• Fresno Stockton $22.77 66

Los Angeles $24.78 61 • Bakersfield

San Diego $25.38 SI CALIFORNIA

Los Angeles Sacramento $26.5 57

San Francisco $34.18 44

San Diego San Jose $37.34 40

AB 1066: 8/40 overtime. Dairy, irrigators, equip operators

Summary • Hired worker employment up as expansion offsets

mechanization. • Farm workers: fewer new entrants = aging &

settled unauthorized workers with US-born kids• Employer responses

– Satisfy current workers to retain– Stretch with labor-stretching mechanical aids– Substitute: labor-saving mechanization (switch)– Supplement: H-2A workers; reduce recruitment,

housing, & AEWR requirements• How fast does new enforcement occur?

Which of the 4 S’s takes priority? What variance by commodity and area?