imfg perspectives: the pre-election series

8/11/2019 IMFG Perspectives: The Pre-Election Series

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IMFG

perspectivesNo. 9 / 2014

The Times They AreA-Changin (Mostly): A 2014 Election Primer forOntarios Biggest Cities

Edited by Zachary Spicer

The Pre-Election Series


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About IMFG

Te Institute on Municipal Finance and Governance (IMFG) is an academic research hub and non-partisanthink tank based in the Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of oronto.

IMFG focuses on the scal health and governance challenges facing large cities and city-regions. Its objectiveis to spark and inform public debate, and to engage the academic and policy communities around importantissues of municipal nance and governance.

Te Institute conducts original research on issues facing cities in Canada and around the world; promoteshigh-level discussion among Canadas government, academic, corporate and community leaders throughconferences and roundtables; and supports graduate and post-graduate students to build Canadas cadre ofmunicipal nance and governance experts. It is the only institute in Canada that focuses solely on municipalnance issues in large cities and city-regions.

IMFG is funded by the Province of Ontario, the City of oronto, Avana Capital Corporation, and

D Bank Group.Editor

Zachary Spicer is a SSHRC post-doctoral fellow with the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinionand Policy. In the 2013-2014 academic year, he held a post-doctoral fellowship with the Institute onMunicipal Finance and Governance.

Acknowledgements

Te editor would like to thank the authors for their contributions, as well as Enid Slack and Andr Ct for

kindly advising and helping direct the project.

Te editor and the authors are responsible for the contents of the paper and the opinions expressed, whichare not attributable to the IMFG or its funders.

Institute on Municipal Finance & GovernanceMunk School of Global Affairs, University of oronto1 Devonshire Place

oronto, Ontario, Canada M5S 3K7http://www.munkschool.utoronto.ca/imfg/

Series editor: Andr Ct

Copyright held by authors, 2014

ISBN 978- 0-7727-0929-7


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The Times They Are A-Changin (Mostly): A 2014 ElectionPrimer for OntariosBiggest Cities

Introduction

Zachary Spicer

Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy

In the 2010 municipal election, Ontarians sorted throughmore than 8,000 candidates to select about 2,800 councilmembers and 700 school trustees. During that election, voterturnout across the province was estimated to be below 50percent. Although municipal governments deliver most ofthe services we use every day, municipal elections receive lessmedia coverage than provincial and federal elections. As aresult, fewer people tend to vote in them.1

Tis paper, which is part of the IMFGs Pre-ElectionPerspectives series, proles election campaigns in six ofOntarios biggest cities Hamilton, London, Mississauga,Ottawa, oronto and Windsor. Stripping away the slogansand electioneering, we focus on the unique economic,demographic, and scal conditions in each city, and themajor policy challenges candidates should be talking about

and voters should be considering as they head to the ballotbox. For each of the six cities, we have recruited a local expto take on this task.

Whats Old Might Not Be New Again

Te 2014 municipal election will usher in some bigchanges. Tere will be a new mayor elected in ve of the sixcities we are examining. Londons Mayor Joe Fontana hasresigned and pledged not to seek re-election. In Hamilton,Bob Bratina has decided not to seek re-election. WindsorsEddie Francis announced that he would not seek a fourth

term as mayor. In Mississauga, voters are preparing to electthe fourth mayor in the citys 40-year history, as politicalmatriarch Hazel McCallion retires. In oronto, Rob Fordrecently withdrew from the Mayors race, citing healthchallenges, and is focusing his efforts on reclaiming his old Ward 2 council seat. Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson is the loneincumbent in our study seeking re-election.

While most of these cities will see a new mayor in placafter October 27, they will likely face familiar challenges.Mississauga, for instance, has for decades been focused on

Source: Mark Blevis, Flickr Creative Commons


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The Times They Are A-Changin (Mostly): A 2014 Election Primer for Ontarios Biggest Cities

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been rising swiftly while unemployment remains high.Housing and the cost of living are also a constant concern in

oronto.

Governance is another important issue that has beenon the backburner. Te scandal-plagued administrations ofRob Ford and Joe Fontana have contributed to a raucous

environment at City Hall, leading to legislative deadlock. While some may argue that new leadership in both cities mhelp reduce the tensions on council, lingering governanceissues will likely remain.

Some cities also require greater regional coordination,particularly those inand around the Greater

oronto and Hamilton Area. Reconciling urbanand suburban factions and in Hamilton and

Ottawa, urban, suburban,and rural has proven tobe difficult; this divide isat the heart of each citysdebate on transit and scaissues.

Overall, Ontarians should be especially attuned to theirlocal politics in 2014. A change in local leadership and aprovincial government that has indicated a desire to settlemany long-standing disagreements, such as those over sociaservices and transit, offer Ontario cities a real opportunity t

break with the past. Zachary Spicer is a Postdoctoral Fellow, Laurier Institute foStudy of Public Opinion and Policy.

Endnotes

1 Association of Municipal Managers, Clerks and reasurers ofOntario, 2010 Ontario Municipal Elections AMC O Post-ElectioSurvey , 2011. Te highest turnout was in the Municipality ofGreenstone (66 percent), while the lowest was in Gilles ownship(0.6 percent).

A change in local leadership and a provincialgovernment that has indicated a desire tosettle many long-standing disagreements,

such as those over social services and transit,offer Ontario cities a real opportunity to break

with the past.

outward expansion, but is now building highrises, developingits core, and planning for transit. Hamilton and orontoare still dealing with the repercussions of amalgamation, assuburban and downtown interests clash as each city attempts toadd or extend rapid transit networks. London and Windsor arestruggling to diversify their traditionally manufacturing-basedeconomies.

Whats on the Agenda?

During the 2010 municipal election, scal issues were at theforefront of several campaigns across the province. Votersin many cities opted for politicians who promised spendingcuts and tax reductions.

orontos Rob Ford and hispledge to Stop the Gravy

rain might have madefor the best bumpersticker,but Londons Joe Fontana

found success with histaxication (tax vacation)pledge, as did WindsorsEddie Francis with hispromise to hold the lineon property taxes. In2014, however, while some campaigns are still focused on scalissues, different themes have emerged.

ransit is a central issue in oronto, Hamilton, Ottawa,and Mississauga. ransit funding is linked closely withprovincial government relations. Te Province has pledged

$29 billion for transportation infrastructure across Ontario.In short, money is available, but local solutions seem elusive. While certain communities, such as the Region of Waterloo,are preparing for construction of their rapid transit projects,others, such as Hamilton and oronto, appear hopelesslydeadlocked over their transit futures. In both communities,however, mayoral contenders have laid out a range of transitvisions.

In London and Windsor, the local economy shouldbe a prominent issue, given the loss of manufacturing jobsfollowing the economic downturn of the last decade. Te

question is, how can city councils best create jobs andprosperity? Tose advocating for infrastructure development,lower tax rates, and even creative economystyle culturalinvestments have made convincing cases, but concrete planshave yet to take shape.

Income inequality has received less media attention.In Ottawa, the citys relative prosperity and position as agovernment town have meant that inequality is largelyoverlooked, but poverty is present in certain parts of the city.In Hamilton and oronto, the incomes of top earners have


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HAMILTON

Population2011

O N T A R I OH A M I LT O N

DEMOGRAPHICS LOCAL ECONOMY FISCAL MEASURES

PopulationGrowth Rate

% changefrom 20062011

MunicipalExpenditure

PerHousehold

2012

TotalVisible

MinorityPopulation

2011$6,750 $7,231

MunicipalRevenue

PerHousehold

2012

$7,357 $8,217

MunicipalDebt

Burden Per Household

2012

$1,943 $3,229

Working AgePopulationas a Ratio

of Non-WorkingAge Population

Post-SecondaryEducation 2011

% of totalpopulation

SOURCE: FIR

SOURCE: FIR

H A M I LT O N O N T A R I O

ProvincialGrants as% of totalrevenue

2012

17%

PropertyTax Per

Household2012

$2,796

SOURCE: FIR

SOURCE: FIR

SOURCE: FIR

EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR 2011

H A M I LT O N O N T A R I O

$409,684 $435,056

8.7%

$38,965

8.3%

$42,265

SOURCE: STATS CANADA


SOURCE: CANADIAN REAL ESTATE ASSOCIATION

AverageHome PriceMarch 2014

UnemploymentRat e

January 2014

Aver age I ncome 2010

30%

18%

38%

17%

29%

39%

Manufacturing

Service Sector

ProfessionalServices

14% 14%Public Sector


17%

3% 6%

15% 29%

1.5:1 1.6:1

42% 47%

519,949 12,851,821$2,967

Hamilton

Peter Graefe McMaster University

Hamilton, Ontarios fth-largest municipality, is a citythat includes active manufacturing facilities and underusedbrownelds, a downtown undergoing renewal but withpersistent social service needs, various generations of postwarsuburbs stretching eastward and southward, and sizeableagricultural areas. When this diversity is overlaid withcontinued resentment over the forced amalgamation of thecity a decade and a half ago, one can appreciate the difficultyin holding a city-wide conversation during an electioncampaign, or in creating strong consensus on city prioritiesamong councillors.

Despite Ontarios weak economic and employmentperformance, Hamiltons employment rate is above theprovincial average and above pre-2008 recession levels.Tese results reect Hamiltons diversied economy, and thefact that the city experienced industrial job losses a decade

before the 2008 crisis. On the other hand, the current mix o jobs has tended towards less secure (non-permanent, part-time) employment, and male median wages have declinedsignicantly. Only 46 percent of men have full-year, full-tim work, compared to 77 percent in 1978. Poverty remains inthe 20 percent range, if measured by before-tax low-incomecut-off criteria, and housing problems (such as a nearly 50percent jump in the length of the affordable housing waitinglist between 2008 and 2011) are exacerbated by a hot realestate market.

The Political LandscapeTe 20102014 term started with the rapid and amicableresolution of two contentious issues that had previouslydivided council: area rating (the assignment of specicprogram costs to different areas within the city) and theconstruction of the Pan-American Games stadium. Withina year of the 2010 election, however, relations between themayor and council soured considerably. Relations with theprovince are also an ongoing source of tension. Councilmembers feel that their attempts to develop bargaining


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leverage are undermined by the mayors strategy of avoidingpublic criticism of provincial actions.

On the budget, however, a high degree of consensusand cooperation allowed council to keep tax increases belowination (an average increase of 1.3 percent over the pastfour years). Te middle of the mandate was consumed by the

Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporations modernizationplans, which raised the question of whether the city would welcome a casino downtown, especially as it would imperilthe slot machine operations of the Flamborough racetrack.Council voted to endorse a casino at the racetrack site, butnot in a manner that denitively ruled out the downtown as apossible location in the future.

Ongoing issues include dening Hamiltons positionon next-generation rapid transit (light rail? who pays?), theairport (should it remain as the centrepiece of economicdevelopment plans,

particularly as passengerand freight volumesdecline?), and policing(a key cost-driver inthe budget over whichcouncil has limitedpower). Given the cityshigh social servicescosts, provincial movesto cut the Community Start-Up and Maintenance Benet(CSUMB) a program that helps fund local housing andhomelessness initiatives and cap special benets under

Ontario Works pose ongoing budgetary challenges. A bone of contention between the city and the province

involves policy uploading and downloading. While theuploading of some social assistance programs was felt tobenet Hamilton, given the citys above-average social servicescaseload, the net impact has been limited, as other transferprograms were ended at the same time. Tere is disagreementabout the effects of uploading: the province claims thatHamilton was $78 million better off in the 20092014period, while the City reckons the net benet at $12 million.

Increased costs in other provincially mandated services(such as land ambulance, public health, and courthousesecurity), as well as provincial offloading of CSUMB andsocial assistance special benets, have angered Hamiltoncouncil members. Tese moves led to a to a cross-communityplanning day on the CSUMB and special benets inDecember 2012.

Relations with the province over transit have also beencomplicated. While council members voted in favour of alight rail transit (LR ) system, in part due to its signicant

development potential in the downtown core, they haveresisted paying for it, insisting on 100 percent provincialfunding for capital costs. Tis hesitancy to take the leadon LR , coupled with the mayor talking down LR whilelobbying the province for all-day GO service, has allowedprovincial cabinet ministers to make a variety of contradictocommitments on transit, potentially pushing Hamilton

down the priority list of projects or knocking it off the listaltogether.

The Defning Issues

Unlike other cities in the G HA that have used gas tax fundto upgrade public transit and grown their ridership as a resuHamilton instead used its money to extend transit to theCanada Bread plant and Wal-Mart. While the question of whether Hamilton can afford LR is likely to be importantin the mayoral race, the overall question of how to go about

upgrading transit (and

paying for it), includingin expensive-to-servesuburban areas, is likelyto play out in ward races.Council has generallyfailed to see transit as aneconomic developmenttool or as a key supportto womens labour force

participation (women represent a higher share of publictransit commuters, and nearly 70 percent of users of theaffordable transit pass).

While the employment situation is relatively bright inHamilton, the city faces issues of job quality and wages,and of access to training opportunities for higher-end jobs.Municipalities hold few levers to directly affect employmenlevels. Te municipalitys overall vision for development(laissez-faire vs. focusing on clusters; greeneld vs. brownairport jobs vs. knowledge-based work) makes a differenceHow the mayor and council engage community stakeholderaround existing joint tables, such as the Jobs ProsperityCollaborative or Workforce Planning Hamilton, to meet

these challenges also has an impact, as do efforts to supportlabour force participation through reducing the childcaresubsidy waiting list or upgrading transit.

Given the diversity of the city and continued tensionsbetween amalgamated communities, the ability of candidateto set out a vision for the city and its development maysway voters. Although the mayor alone can accomplishonly a limited amount, the capacity of council to deliveron its agenda depends on leadership that can sketch out agreater vision and gather councillors behind it. It is not clea

Council has generally failed to see transitas an economic development tool or asa key support to womens labour forceparticipation.


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Hamilton has had such leadership since amalgamation, andcertainly not in the past seven years.

Issues such as the stadium, LR , and the airportdevelopment project known as Aerotropolis have draggedon partly because of a lack of clear vision, including whetherthe citys economic future is further suburbanization and

development of transportation and logistics industries alongthe highways and the airport, or if it should have a downtowfocus that builds on clusters around the university, hospitalsand redeveloped brownelds.

Peter Graefe is Associate Professor of Political Science, MUniversity, Hamilton.


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Te Ontario government recently announced that moreGO trains will be serving Kitchener. Te response in Londonhas been, Why cant London get GO rain service? KCWhas been growing because of the health of its high-tech sectand because of its proximity to oronto. By contrast, Londois too far away from oronto to benet from orontosceaseless outward expansion, yet it is still too close for it

to be at the heart ofa city-region withits own dynamiceconomy.

Fifty years agoLondon could becharacterized as amajor Canadiancorporate centre. John Labatt , Canada

rust, LondonLife, and local media all had corporate headquarters inLondon. Now all of them are gone. Londons private-sector economy is made up primarily of branch plants, an

London

Andrew SanctonTe University of Western Ontario

In 2011 the population of the City of London was366,000, while the population of the census metropolitanarea (CMA) was 475,000. Te biggest local issue is thelack of growth. Between2006 and 2011, the LondonCMA population droppedfrom tenth to eleventh inCanadian CMAs rankedby size. It was narrowlysurpassed by neighbouringKitchener-Cambridge- Waterloo (KCW). Witha ve-year growth rateof only 3.7 percent as of2011, Londons rate was also below those of the 10 morepopulous metropolitan areas (KCWs growth rate over thesame period was 5.7 percent).

LONDON

Population2011

O N T A R I OL O N D O N





PerHousehold

2012

TotalVisible

MinorityPopulation

2011$6,750 $7,231

MunicipalRevenue

PerHousehold

2012

$7,357 $8,217

MunicipalDebt


2012

$1,943 $3,229





SOURCE: FIR

SOURCE: FIR

L O N D O N O N T A R I O


2012

18%

PropertyTax Per

Household2012

$2,455 $2,796

SOURCE: FIR

SOURCE: FIR

SOURCE: FIR


L O N D O N O N T A R I O

$269,497 $435,056

9%

$39,399

8.3%

$42,265





UnemploymentRate

January 2014

Average Income 2010

25%

19%

42%

17%

29%

39%

Manufacturing

Service Sector

Pr of ess iona lServices



17%

4% 6%

16% 29%

1.6:1 1.6:1

46% 47%

366,151 12,851,821

London is too far away from Toronto to

bene t from Torontos ceaseless outwardexpansion, yet it is still too close for it to beat the heart of a city-region with its owndynamic economy.


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even some of the most prominent of these have left, thebest-known recent examples being Ford, Caterpillar, andKelloggs.

With such limited growth, there is concern in Londonabout how to retain young people who have grown up inthe city and about providing opportunities for students at

Western University and Fanshawe College who have comefrom other places and might want to stay. Even if youngpeople do not stay, however, London benets economicallyfrom its educational and healthcare institutions. Withoutthese, the city would be little more than a service centrefor the productive agricultural area that surrounds it.

The Political Landscape

Concerns about the local economy dominate municipalpolitics in London. Joe Fontana won the 2010 mayoralelection on promises to freeze property taxes and create10,000 jobs. For the rst couple of years, he was successful infreezing property taxes. But jobs lost seem to have outweighed jobs gained, certainly in manufacturing. Te only glimmer ofhope appears to rest with the defence industry, as LondonsGeneral Dynamics plant has obtained major contractsfor building armoured personnel carriers. But if Londonsmajor private-sector employment cluster has developed inthe defence industry, it is not because of Mr. Fontana or ofanything the municipal government may or may not havedone. In any event, nobody, none of the 2014 municipalcandidates, can now credibly claim to be able to affect the jobsituation.

Meanwhile, Fontana is not a candidate in 2014 becausehe has been convicted of using public funds while he wasa federal cabinet minister to pay for part of the costs of hissons wedding, and is conned to his own residence until afterthe election. Tere are three serious candidates to replacehim: Matt Brown, a rookie councillor with strong Liberalconnections (like Fontana) who, though not charismatic, hasthe virtues of being seriously interested in local policy issues;Roger Caranci, a former councillor with strong connectionsto the development industry; and Joe Swan, a long-timecouncillor who once ran as an NDP candidate in a federal

election but who was more recently a strong Fontana ally.Tree other incumbents (in addition to Brown and Swan)

have already announced that they will not be standing forre-election to council. All three have been critics of Fontanaspro-development policies and all are stepping down aftermore than one term on council, each suggesting that they aredoing the right thing by allowing for much-needed councilturnover. Fontanas informal council majority shows signs ofdisintegrating, but the decision of his main critics not to runagain can only be seen as good news for London developers.

The Defning Issues

Tis brings us to issues that London City Council can dosomething about (subject to the vagaries of the OntarioMunicipal Board): the quality of the local built environmenTe most signicant cleavage in London city politics isbetween those who favour almost any proposal for land

development and those who want to control development.Te former believe that development of any kind creates joband the latter maintain that developers threats to take theircapital elsewhere are mostly hollow and that the citys longterm prospects are best served by occasionally saying Noto particularly egregious proposals for new manifestations ourban sprawl.

wo potential projects relating to downtown are alreadydividing mayoral and council candidates as the election drawcloser: rst, whether to provide further nancial assistance

Fanshawe College in relocating some of its programs to anabandoned department-store building; and second, whetherto build a new performing arts centre.

Attracting provincial (and federal) funds to subsidizethe performing arts centre and other infrastructureprojects remains a constant preoccupation of Londons citygovernment. Tere is a general belief, probably justied, thatbecause it is in southern Ontario, but not part of the GreaterGolden Horseshoe, London gets ignored (as with the absenof GO train service).

Te last time Londons economic well-being seemed apriority of the Ontario government was in 1992, when theNDP sponsored an annexation to facilitate manufacturingdevelopment around the intersection of Highways 401 and402. More than 20 years later, no such development hastaken place. Provincial and local politicians still claim it is apriority, even though it likely requires a new sewage treatmplant on the Tames River not far from the City of orontoslandll site. Whether nearby First Nations will agree to yetanother environmental imposition is far from clear.

Londons economic future probably does not dependon new manufacturing facilities requiring direct access toprovincial highways. Fast, reliable train connections to

oronto might well be a superior strategy for Londonsgrowth, but most Londoners are probably not yet ready to stheir economic future dened by their connections with themammoth oronto city-region to the east.

Andrew Sancton is Professor of Political Science, WesternUniversity, London.


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Mississauga

om UrbaniakCape Breton University

Hazel McCallion once told me that her successor wouldbe a one-term mayor. She could foresee that conict wouldfollow her strong leadership, her pervasive presence, and thegeneration-long absence of serious electoral competition forthe office of mayor. McCallion is retiring this year after 36years as head of council of the city of Mississauga and 46consecutive years in public life. We shall soon have a chanceto test her prediction.

A new era is dawning in Canadas sixth largest city, thehuge suburban municipality that is still nding its core andidentity, albeit with some condence now. But the nextcouncil mandate will also have some shades of an earliergeneration, the much smaller Mississauga of the 1970s.


It was like big-city politics, it really was.1 So said a former

Mississauga City Hall-beat reporter, recalling the dramaticclashes between the developer-friendly old guard andslow-growth, neighbourhood-activist reformers on thecouncils of 1974-78. Te city came into being in 1974 as theresult of the provinces forced merger of the former town ofMississauga and the towns of Port Credit and Streetsville. Tcity of Mississauga had trouble nding its footing. Te lastmayor of Streetsville, Hazel McCallion, had in fact steadfasopposed the merger.

As the election of 1978 approached, the city was lookin

for stability. Into the void stepped McCallion. By thistime, much of the city was, or could easily be, serviced fordevelopment. Abandoning her previous advocacy of phasi(opening up a new section of the city to development only when existing development areas were built out), McCallionow advocated opening up the whole land mass to develope provided they paid development charges, calculated basedon current and future needs.

It was a recipe for relatively low-temperature politics.Development charges paid for extensive new infrastructure


Population2011

O N T A R I OMISSISSAUGA





PerHousehold

2012

TotalVisible

MinorityPopulation

2011$2,984 $7,231

MunicipalRevenue

PerHousehold

2012

$2,959 $8,217

MunicipalDebt


2012

$0 $3,229





SOURCE: FIR

SOURCE: FIR

MISSISSAUGA O N T A R I O

ProvincialGrants as% of total

revenue2012

1%

PropertyTax Per

Household2012

$3,240 $2,796

SOURCE: FIR

SOURCE: FIR

SOURCE: FIR


MISSISSAUGA O N T A R I O

$497,051 $435,056

8.7%

$41,300

8.3%

$42,265

SOURCE:

STATS CANADA




Unemploy mentRate

January 2014

Average Income 2010

32%

17%

41%

17%

29%

39%

Manufacturing

Service Sector


10% Public Sector


Because Mississauga is a lower-tier municipality within the Region of Peel, the fi scal indicatorsare not comparable to the Ontario averages

17%

7% 6%

53% 29%

1.7:1 1.6:1

49% 47%

713,443 12,851,821

MISSISSAUGA14%


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and amenities. Tey allowed the city to hold the lineon tax-rate increases, especially in the anti-tax, anti-government political climate of the 1990s. Because most ofthe development was not directly in anyones backyard, theneighbourhood groups were either non-existent or docile.

oday, the era of major greeneld development is over.

Te citys population is growing more slowly than ever. In2014 it is estimated at 756,000, expected to grow only 10percent by 2031. (By contrast, there were some years in the1970s when Mississaugas population grew almost by thesame percentage in a 12-month period!) Some of the moreestablished neighbourhoods are seeing no increases, and willexperience population decline.2

Many neighbourhoods are now better politicallyorganized. ry now for a zoning change or even a minorvariance to put in a small apartment building in Mineolaor Streetsville and neighbourhood opposition will surface,

with concerned citizensarguing that development would mean loss of treesor views, or more of aburden on the existinginfrastructure.

The Defning Issues

Infrastructure is comingdue for repair andreplacement. Without themajor inux of development charges Mississauga is no longera debt-free city, as McCallion so often boasted duringher time. Steve Mahoney, a veteran politician and leadingcontender in the mayoral race, is promising to keep tax-rateincreases to the rate of ination.3 Fellow front-runner BonnieCrombie vows to look to nd ways to reduce the tax burdenon residents.4 Tat will be hard, just as it has been in thelatter years of the McCallion mayoralty.

Drivers fume under gridlock, as a built-out city haslittle room in which to widen already wide thoroughfares.Except in the older neighbourhoods which have a moreurbane feel walkability is low. McCallion herself oftenconcedes that Mississauga erred in not planning for transit.Tus, all the serious candidates for mayor and council willcall for better transit. On transit investment and other issues,expect McCallions successor to follow in her footsteps bytrying to cultivate a good rapport with the provincial Liberalgovernment.

Te new municipal regime will have some very typical,but very complex, urban issues. Tere are clusters of highpoverty and generalized sentiments of social exclusion in

densely populated neighbourhoods like Malton, Cooksvilleand Dixie-Bloor, as well as less visible but under-servedmarginalized populations. For a decade and a half manyagencies in the Region of Peel have come together under aFair Share banner, arguing that funding and programs nevkept up with growth.

City Hall was late to acknowledge the deep culturaldiversity of Mississauga. Te mosaic is certainly not reecte well on council or in the willingness of senior staff to provimunicipal services in languages other than English. Te Cityengagement with social service agencies is similarly limitedIn recent years, however, with McCallion partially looseninher grip, the city bureaucracy has dug into these needs andmade some progress.

Te 2014-2018 council will actually inherit a strongcivic bureaucracy. As dominant as the McCallion icon was,there was always a competent technocratic core, although

it was sometimesreactionary and highlyconscious of the tone atthe top. Te staff gainedcondence in recentyears as McCallions holdlessened and after the cityadopted, in 2009, themulti-yearOur Future Mississauga Plan, focusedon a more green, transit-

friendly, youth-inclusive, design-oriented city. Te citysalmost spectacular success in capturing post-2008 federaland provincial infrastructure dollars for libraries, parks,community centres, re stations, trails, squares and otherfeatures was a testament to detailed staff preparatory work

Despite Mr. Justice Douglas Cunninghams nding,in the report of the Mississauga Judicial Inquiry, thatMcCallion acted inappropriately, and contrary to common-law conict of interest principles, in helping her sons upstaand inexperienced shell company to secure a multimilliondollar deal (eventually aborted) to acquire and developthe last best piece of land in the City Centre,5 the mayorclaimed vindication. But it was a wake-up call for thecity Cunningham called his reportUpdating the EthicalInfrastructure which had previously no code of conductin place for its elected officials. Te public will not beas forgiving of other office holders as it was of its agelessmatriarch. Watch for some steps in early 2015 to furtherenhance transparency at City Hall.

Although Mississaugas municipal politicians are amonthe best paid in the country, also watch for the new mayor

Without the major in ux of development

charges Mississauga is no longer a debt-

free city, as McCallion so often boasted

during her time.


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to try to follow some of McCallions day-to-day practices,such as eschewing handlers at public events and being visible,accessible, and seemingly raw and authentic. He or she willaccept a chauffeur, however. Te no-entourage McCallion canbrush off all her accidents caused by her own careless driving.Te next mayor of Mississauga will be under more scrutiny. And the scrutiny will not just be about the rules of the road.

om Urbaniak is Associate Professor of Political Science, CapeBreton University, Nova Scotia, and author of three books relatedto Mississauga and Peel Region.

Endnotes

1 om Urbaniak, Her Worship: Hazel McCallion and theDevelopment of Mississauga ( oronto: University of oronto Press,2009), p. 9.

2 Mississauga, Department of Community Services, 2014 FutureDirections for Library Services , pp. 8-10.

3 Joseph Chin, Mahoney unveils ambitious blueprint in bid formayors job, Mississauga News , June 25, 2014.

4 Crombie makes this statement on her campaign website:http://www.bonniecrombie.ca/respect_for_taxpayers; accessed on

July 3, 2014.5 Te Honourable J. Douglas Cunningham, Updating the EthicalInfrastructure: Report of the Mississauga Judicial Inquiry , 2011.
http://www.bonniecrombie.ca/respect_for_taxpayershttp://www.bonniecrombie.ca/respect_for_taxpayers


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Ottawa

Caroline AndrewCentre on Governance, University of Ottawa

Ottawa is a government town, with a small manufacturingsector and a large public-service sector. Civil service jobsaccount for over 30 percent of workers, compared to lessthan 15 percent for Ontario as a whole. Tis also means thatOttawa is a relatively well-off community with an averageincome in 2010 about $7,000 higher than the average forOntario as a whole. Since amalgamation in 2001, the Cityof Ottawa covers a very large area with urban, suburban, andrural sections. Perhaps because amalgamation was imposedby the provincial government, different parts of the Cityhave remained distinct and there is little sense of a commondirection.

Municipal relations with the federal government havealways been somewhat strained. Te City resents beingdictated to by the federal government, while it accepts federalexpenditures on parks and driveways. Relations continueto be less than cordial, as the current federal governments

enthusiasm for cuts to the federal civil service are bad newsfor the local economy.


Four years ago, Jim Watson left the provincial cabinet andreturned to his earlier career in municipal politics, where hehad been the last mayor of the old City of Ottawa beforeamalgamation. He won the 2010 municipal mayoralty racein a large eld of candidates, including the then-incumbentmayor Larry OBrien. Watson was convinced that the Ottawelectorate was tired of the ghts, personal animosity, andgeneral rudeness of the previous municipal council. From thbeginning of his term in office, Watson kept a tight rein onthe council. Council adopted a list of priorities for the termof office, and Watson insisted that nothing could be approvthat was not part of those original priorities.

A number of signicant policies, programs, and strateg were created during the 20102014 term of council. Manyoriginated as staff-led projects and many were organizedin partnership with community-led organizations, suchas the implementation of the Equity and Inclusion Lens

Population2011

O N T A R I OO T TAWA





PerHousehold

2012

TotalVisible

MinorityPopulation

2011$7,547 $7,231

MunicipalRevenue

PerHousehold

2012

$8,547 $8,217

MunicipalDebt


2012

$4,579 $3,229





SOURCE: FIR

SOURCE: FIR

O T T A W A O N T A R I O

ProvincialGrants as% of total

revenue2012

15%

PropertyTax Per

Household2012

$2,967 $2,796

SOURCE: FIR

SOURCE: FIR

SOURCE: FIR


O T TAWA O N T A R I O

$359,051 $435,056

7%

$49,862

8.3%

$42,265





UnemploymentRate

January 2014

Average Income 2010

14%

16%

38%

17%

29%

39%

Manufacturing

Service Sect or

Professio nalServices



17%

9% 6%

23% 29%

1.7:1 1.6:1

52% 47%

883,391 12,851,821


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12

(in partnership with the City for All Women Initiative),the creation of the Older Adult Plan (in partnership withthe Council on Aging), the City of Ottawa MunicipalImmigration Strategy (in collaboration with the OttawaLocal Immigration partnership), and a Youth Strategyand a Public Engagement Strategy. Each was designed toincrease the inclusion of often-marginalized groups withinthe citys politics and community. None were controversial.Tis apparent consensus may have come about because theCity-community partnerships ensured at least some visiblecommunity buy-in.

Te results of the June 2014 provincialelection were seen asgood news for municipalOttawa. Te provincialLiberals had promisedsupport for three of themajor municipal election

issues: cleaning up theOttawa River, furthertransit investment, andcontinuing the uploadingof social services.Provincial funding for infrastructure projects will include$65 million for the Ottawa River Action Plan to end sewageoverow directly into the river, and support for the nextphase of investment in the Citys light rail transit line. Tisfunding will decrease public pressure for increased municipalexpenditures during the election campaign.

The Defning IssuesTe municipal election will not be a dramatic one forOttawa. Tere is no true race for the mayoralty: Jim Watson will likely be re-elected. Tere are few candidates runningagainst him. He attends every public event in Ottawa, isrecognized by a huge percentage of the Ottawa population,and is active on social media. But there are some importantlocal issues that voters need to consider.

wo major demographic shifts Ottawa is experiencing aging and ethnic diversity have important political

implications. Te aging of the population combined with

rising housing costs means that a substantial part of thesenior population is property-rich and cash-poor, andtends to vote for lower taxes. Tis trend has a substantialpolitical impact, as seniors vote in large numbers. Ratherthan supporting enhanced city services adapted to an agingpopulation, they usually vote for lower taxes (that will likelresult in service cuts).

At the same time, municipal elections are good arenas tdebate policies that can alleviate the worst impacts of grow

income inequality,such as those relatingto childcare, publictransportation, andnancially and physicallyaccessible recreationoptions. Yet, Ottawasincreasingly diversepopulation includes

many who cannotvote because they arerecent immigrants anddo not have Canadiancitizenship.

Improving political participation is another importantissue, particularly among low-income residents who tendnot to vote. An interesting program called Making VotesCount Where We Live has been organized by two local civicorganizations. Te program has four main objectives: Makeit easy to vote. Make it fun to vote. Ignite the passion to

make a difference. Build bridges between elected officials aresidents.

Also active in citizen engagement is a new organizationthe Citizens Academy . It was established about two years agoand has been slowly working to engage citizens in politicalissues. Whether these activities will increase voter turnout iperhaps the most exciting reason to watch how the Ottawamunicipal election unfolds.

Caroline Andrew is Director of the Centre on Governance,University of Ottawa.

Municipal elections are good arenas todebate policies that can alleviate the worstimpacts of growing income inequality,such as those relating to childcare, public

transportation, and nancially andphysically accessible recreation options.


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IMFG Perspectives

13

Population2011

TORONTO

O N T A R I OT O R O N T O





PerHousehold

2012

TotalVisible

MinorityPopulation

2011$9,189 $7,231

MunicipalRevenue

PerHousehold

2012

$10,480 $8,217

MunicipalDebt


2012

$3,939 $3,229





SOURCE: FIR

SOURCE: FIR

T O R O N T O O N T A R I O


2012

21%

PropertyTax Per

Household2012

$2,633 $2,796

SOURCE: FIR

SOURCE: FIR

SOURCE: FIR


T O R O N T O O N T A R I O

$557,684 $435,056

8.4%

$44,500

8.3%

$42,265





UnemploymentRate

January 2014

Average Income 2010

22%

16%

50%

17%

29%

39%

Manufacturing

Ser vice Sector

ProfessionalSer vice s



17%

5% 6%

48% 29%

1.8:1 1.6:1

49% 47%

2,615,060 12,851,821

Toronto

Andr CtInstitute on Municipal Finance and Governance

In spite of its recent politics, oronto is a city on the rise.But the 2014 elections mark a critical juncture, withimportant decisions to be made about the future of Canadaslargest city.

oronto is one of the most culturally diverse cities inthe world and boasts a strong and diversied economy.

oronto City Council is made up of a directly electedmayor and 44 councillors elected at the ward level whoalso sit on community councils that deal with local issues. With a few minor tweaks, this governance arrangementhas been in place since the tumultuous amalgamation in1998. Council is supported by the oronto Public Service,a public administration with more than 50,000 staffmembers larger than the civil service of most provincialgovernments.


Te political dysfunction at oronto City Hall over thepast four years, caused largely by the scandals engulngMayor Rob Ford, not only made news around the world,but was a barrier to effective governance. ransportationplanning, driven by political agendas rather than evidence,is in shambles. Council was frequently distracted by heatedideological debates about everything from casinos to plasticbag taxes. In general, there was a lack of leadership andcoherence in the council agenda. Nevertheless, there havebeen some positive developments, such as the RegentPark revitalization, which has demonstrated the potentialof innovative public-private nancing arrangements torejuvenate the cash-starved social housing sector.

oronto is the only municipality in Ontario to have itsown legislation theCity of oronto Act and to manageits relationship with the Government of Ontario separately,outside the Association of Municipalities of Ontario (AMOTe citys size and political voice have a signicant impact oprovincial-local relations. Te most obvious example has bee


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the wrangling over transit planning and investment, wherethe Province has largely acquiesced to oronto councils manyreversals of policy. In other areas, such as the uploading ofsocial services costs that began in 2008, oronto has receivedthe same treatment as other municipalities.

o put it mildly, the last four years were disheartening

for oronto residents. Te carnival at City Hall distractedattention from more important challenges. If there is a silverlining, it is that levels of citizen awareness and interest in localissues have increased, creating an opportunity for an engagingelection campaign that can refocus the City on its long-termpriorities. Tere are many of them.

The Defning Issues

ransit will be the top issue during the election campaign,as candidates line up to support a variety of investmentproposals. Yet, the focus on big, new transit lines partly misses

the big picture. Most of orontos capital funding actuallygoes towards state-of-good-repair (SOGR) the unglamorousmaintenance of the aging transit, sewer pipes, and socialhousing infrastructurethe city already has. TeCity does not have thenancial capacity totackle its SOGR backlog,much less to fund majornew investments toaccommodate continuedgrowth. Its unlikely that

the provincial or federal governments will come to the rescue with the large infusions of cash that is needed.

oronto has many economic strengths. Te City ishome to Canadas nancial services industry and many otherimportant business clusters. It has top-notch educationalinstitutions. Te property market has been booming,especially in the urban core.1 Yet, as the oronto RegionBoard of rade has pointed out, the productivity rate of themetropolitan economy has been falling and oronto nowlags behind other city-regions such as Montreal, Vancouver,Chicago, Boston, and Atlanta. Te business communitys

advice to City Hall: stop being so inward-focused and start toplan, coordinate and act like a region.2

orontos prosperity has not been evenly shared. Incomeshave been rising fastest for orontos top earners,3 whilethe unemployment rate remains persistently higher thanin the 905 municipalities or province-wide.4 Tere is along waiting list for the Citys 60,000 social housing units.Te University of orontos three cities research showsthe growing spatial gap between have and have-notcommunities.5 While this issue is at the root of the alleged

downtowninner suburbs divide in the city, it has receivedlittle political attention at City Hall over the past four years

Fifteen years after amalgamation, it is also clear thatorontos governance structure is an unresolved problem.

On the one hand, Greater oronto Area (G A) coordinationmechanisms are desperately needed to address planning,funding, and decision-making gaps in core areas such astransport, economic development, and growth managementOn the other, council is bogged down by the volume of itemon its agenda, and needs to delegate more responsibilities tocommunity councils or other local decision-making bodies. Arrangements with the Province also need to integrate andcoordinate services in areas of shared responsibility, such associal assistance, employment supports, and other humanservices.6

orontos 2014 election is a dening moment. MayorFord was elected in 2010 on a simple platform that promiselow taxes and efficient government (less gravy), with asubway-focused transportation plan largely intended to tapthe vein of suburban resentment towards the subway-served

core. While its difficultto overstate Mayor Fordsdetrimental impact onCouncils effectiveness oon orontos internationalreputation, the mayorcan take credit fordelivering some elementsof his agenda. Te ballot

question for orontonians in 2014 is: should they expectmore of their vibrant, prosperous, cosmopolitan city?

What oronto lacks is a coherent long-term vision forthe Citys future, and honest discussion about the choicesand sacrices needed to achieve that vision. It is growingtoo quickly for piecemeal approaches, politicized investmendecisions, or parochial resistance to change. As another IMFPre-Election Paper noted, oronto lacks the nancial capacityto maintain public service levels and invest for the future ifproperty taxes continue to grow at below-ination rates anddifficult decisions are avoided about how to generate new

revenues for infrastructure.7

Andr Ct is Manager of Programs and Research, Institute Municipal Finance and Governance, oronto.

Endnotes

1 Open Data oronto, Economic Indicators, 1 May 2014.

2 oronto Region Board of rade, oward a oronto RegionEconomic Strategy, April 2014, pp. 8, 15.

The ballot question for Torontonians in 2014is: should they expect more of their vibrant,prosperous, cosmopolitan city?


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IMFG Perspectives

15

3 After-tax income for oronto CMA. Statistics Canada Cansimable 204-0002.

4 Open Data oronto, Economic Indicators, 1 May 2014.

5 J. David Hulchanski, Te Tree Cities within oronto: IncomePolarization Among orontos Neighbourhoods, 19702005,Research Bulletin 41, University of oronto Cities Centre, 2010.

6 Andre Cote and Michael Fenn, Approaching an Inection Pointin Ontarios Provincial-Municipal Relations,IMFG Perspectives #6,Institute on Municipal Finance and Governance, 2014.

7 Enid Slack and Andr Ct, Is oronto Fiscally Healthy? ACheck-up on the Citys Finances,IMFG Perspectives Papers Pre-Election Series #7 , Institute on Municipal Finance and Governance.


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Windsor

John SutcliffeUniversity of Windsor

Te City of Windsor is a separated, single-tier municipalgovernment with an elected council consisting of a mayor,elected at large, and ten councillors elected in single-member wards. Te population of the city was nearly 211,000 in2011, which represents a decline from 2006 when thepopulation was over 216,000. Tere is speculation that this

population loss may have been halted or even reversed inrecent years and certainly the greatest population loss wasconnected with the post-2008 recession and the associateddecline in the automotive sector.


Municipal turnover is the major feature of the 2014 Windsormunicipal elections. Tree long-standing council membersannounced their decision not to run for re-election in July.Even more signicant was the January announcement by

three-term mayor Eddie Francis that he would not seek re-election.

Francis has been a dominant force in Windsorsmunicipal politics since his victory in the mayoral race of2003 (he was rst elected to council in 1999). In spite ofcontroversies relating to his leadership style, he will leaveoffice with a high approval rating. It was widely expected thhe would win again had he decided to run in 2014; as a resuno prominent candidate was openly preparing to run againshim at the time of his announcement.

Tere was initial speculation about who would runfor mayor. After some delay, councillor Drew Dilkensdeclared his candidacy in August and immediately becamethe frontrunner in the race that by that time had six othercandidates. Among others most frequently mentioned aspossible mayoral contenders, sitting councillor Bill Maraannounced early that he would not run, while formerOntario Liberal MPP and government minister eresaPiruzza, who was mentioned as a possible candidate in herhome city, announced in August that she was not running.

WINDSOR

Population2011

O N T A R I OW I N D S O R





PerHousehold

2012

TotalVisible

MinorityPopulation

2011$7,075 $7,231

MunicipalRevenue

PerHousehold

2012

$7,872 $8,217

MunicipalDebt


2012

$1,173 $3,229





SOURCE: FIR

SOURCE: FIR

W I N D S O R O N T A R I O


2012

25%

PropertyTax Per

Household2012

$2,302 $2,796

SOURCE: FIR

SOURCE: FIR

SOURCE: FIR


W I N D S O R O N T A R I O

$183,000 $435,056

12%

$34,000

8.3%

$42,265




Avera ge Home Pri ce March 2014

Unemp loymen tRate

January 2014

Average Income 2010

31%

19%

37%

17%

29%

39%

Man uf ac t uri ng

Service Sector




17%

-3% 6%

23% 29%

1.5:1 1.6:1

40% 47%

210,891 12,851,821


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IMFG Perspectives

17

As a result, Dilkens is the favourite to replace Francis. Hiscampaign announcement and literature indicate that he willrun on the Francis council record, of which he was a part.

The Defning Issues

Te 2014 municipal election is likely to be dominated by thelegacy of Eddie Francis. At least two issues will be prominentin the mayoral race and may play a part in all of the wardraces. Te rst is the issue of contracting out municipalservices and the relationship between the municipality andunionized employees. In the wake of the 101-day municipalstrike in 2009, the mayor pushed the city council to contractout more of its services and reduce retirement benets to newemployees. Tese issues remain controversial and may proveto be a source of disagreement between candidates seeking tomaintain the post-2009 pattern and those wishing to reversethis course.

Fire protection serviceis a prominent exampleof this debate. In spite ofrecent pay rises awardedto reghters, Francisspearheaded a plan tokeep expenditure on reprotection services stableby reorganizing andreducing the number ofre halls. Te reghtersunion is leading a public campaign against this plan.

Te second issue concerns the municipalitys approachto property taxes and spending, and whether council willmaintain its commitment, rst advanced by Eddie Francis,to hold the property tax levy stable or whether taxation rates will be increased to allow for greater municipal spending.Councils ability to keep the property tax stable whilereducing the citys overall debt and completing signicantcapital expenditure projects helps explain the mayorspopularity. At the same time, however, there are demandsfrom various quarters for greater municipal spending as wellas demands for greater support for unionized workers.

Other city-wide issues will likely feature in the election. Although the worst of the post-2008 recession is over, andthe danger of one or more of the Big Tree automobilemanufacturers going bankrupt has receded, the overall healthof the automotive sector remains a central issue in Windsorsmunicipal politics. Automobile manufacturers and theirsuppliers are the main employers in Windsor and the localeconomy is closely linked to the state of this industry. Almostevery candidate for municipal office recognizes this fact andemphasizes the importance of municipal support for themanufacturing sector and the automotive sector in particular.

One important example of this support has beenmunicipal pressure, and eventual approval, for theconstruction of a new border crossing linking Windsor withDetroit, as well as the construction of a new road (the HerbGray Parkway) linking Highway 401 to the border.1 Tisissue is likely to be a factor in the 2014 election, but withlimited disagreement among candidates about the needfor a new government-funded bridge and the completionof the new parkway access road. On a related note, theoverwhelming majority of municipal candidates will continthe municipal governments longstanding opposition toplans for an Ambassador Bridge replacement span, with itsassociated impact on the Sandwich area of the city.2

At least three seats will be open in the 10 wards andthese are certain to be ercely contested. Tese races mayturn on issues exclusive to particular wards. Ward 10 has,for example, attracted a large number of candidates as a

result of the nancialscandals surrounding therst term of the sittingcouncillor. Te race inthat ward is likely tofocus on the incumbentsrecord and past nancialindiscretions.

Te 2014 municipalelection in Windsorshould attract a higher-

than-normal level of public interest. Te absence of anincumbent mayor and the certainty of at least three rst-timcouncillors being elected indicates that there will be changeat City Hall. It is less clear whether this changing of themunicipal guard will result in new policy directions for theCity of Windsor.

John Sutcliffe is Associate Professor, Department of PoliticScience, University of Windsor.

Endnotes

1 J.B. Sutcliffe, Multi-Level Governance in a Canadian Setting:Te Reform of the Detroit River Border Crossing, Regional and

Federal Studies , 2012, vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 141158.2 J.B. Sutcliffe, Neoliberalism in a Small Canadian City?

Windsor City Council and the Reform of the Detroit River BorderCrossing, American Review of Canadian Studies , 2011, vol. 41, no.3, pp. 274292.

The absence of an incumbent mayor andthe certainty of at least three rst-timecouncillors being elected indicates thatthere will be change at City Hall.


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