imate the life cycle cost and effort of project management for technology centric systems...
TRANSCRIPT
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 1/31
Systems Engineering and Project
Management: Similarities and
Differences for Cost Estimation
Dr. Ricardo Valerdi – Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Leone Young – Stevens Institute of Technology
COSYSMO Workshop
The University of Southern California (USC)
November 4th, 2010
The 25th Int’l Forum on COCOMO &
Systems/Software Cost Modeling 1
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 2/31
Workshop Agenda
• Introductions & Objectives
• Research Background
• Project Management Cost
Models and Feedback
• Survey
• Inputs & Discussion
2
1:30 – 1:35 pm
1:35 – 1:50 pm
1:50 – 2:05 pm
2:05 – 2:35 pm
2:35 – 2:50 pm
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 3/31
Objectives
• Discuss the similarities and differences between systemsengineering and project management
• Obtain feedback on a proposed project management
cost estimating model
• Conduct survey to determine the expected level ofproject management efficiency multipliers
• Obtain inputs on the appropriateness and adequacy of
the proposed project management cost model, its cost
factors and drivers• Provide an opportunity for participants to contribute their
expertise and perspective regarding project
management services and influence the direction of
future research3
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 4/31
4
Research Background:
Systems Engineering (SE) & Project
Management (PM)
•Cost Management – Project Air Force by Rand
–Development Management = Systems Engineering (SE) & Project
Management (PM)
–Defense Industry – US Air Force Programs (Stem et al., 2006)
» Development Management (100/%) = SE (50%) + PM (50%)
»SE/PM costs doubled since 1960s
SE/PM as a function of Integrated Logistics
Support (ILS) for a typical Air Force program
(Stem, et al., 2006)
Aircraft SE/PM Costs as a Percentage of Total
Development Cost for All Development
Programs, 1960s –1990s (Stem, et al., 2006)
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 5/31
5
Research Background:
Systems Engineering (SE) & Project
Management (PM)
•SE Costs – significant amount of research has beenconducted
–The International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE)
surveyed (Honour, 2004):
•52% of systems projects spent 5% or less of total systems development cost onSE tasks
–The Constructive Systems Engineering Cost Model (COSYSMO)
• As a SE cost estimating tool used by systems engineering, systems cost
estimators, etc (Valerdi, 2006)
•PM Cost Estimating?
–Methodology?
–Tools?
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 6/31
6
• Literature – limited information on PM related expenditures
or costs
• Organizations often do not identify or measure PM costs,
and a survey led by UC Berkeley (Ibbs and Kwak, 2000a, 2000b)
shows: – 80% of companies surveyed spend less than 10% of total project
cost (TPC) for PM services
– Average = 6% of TPC, Range = 0.3% ~ 15% of TPC
– Another survey indicated the average = 10% of TPC (Ibbs and
Reginato, 2002)
• Evidently, PM costs varies among organizations
– Influential PM Cost Factors: project type, size, # of projects, PMmaturity level (Archibald, 2003)
Research Background:
Systems Engineering (SE) & Project
Management (PM)
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 7/317
• SE is “a methodical, disciplined approach for the design,realization, technical management, operations, and
retirement of a system. SE is the art and science of
developing an operable system capable of meeting
requirements within often opposed constraints. Systems
engineering is a holistic, integrat ive disc ipl ine , wherein
the contributions of structural engineers, electrical
engineers, mechanism designers, power engineers,
human factors engineers, and many more disciplines are
evaluated and balanced, one against another, to produce a coherent whole that is not dominated by the
perspective of a single discipline.” (NASA, 2007)
Research Background:
Systems Engineering (SE) & Project
Management (PM)
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 8/31
8
• Project Management Institute (PMI) - ProjectManagement Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) guidebook
defines PM as “the application of knowledge, skills, tools
and techniques to project activities in order to meet or
exceed stakeholder needs and expectations from a
project ” (PMI, 2004)
• NASA defines PM as “the function of planning,
overseeing, and directing the numerous activities
required to achieve the requirements, goals, and
objectives of the customer and other stakeholders within
specified cost, quality, and schedule constraints” (NASA,
2007, 2010)
Research Background:
Systems Engineering (SE) & Project
Management (PM)
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 9/31
9
The Overlapping Areas of SE & PM in a Project
(Kossiakoff and Sweet, 2003)
Research Background:
Systems Engineering (SE) & Project
Management (PM)
Technical Skills Managerial Skills
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 10/31
10
The Roles of Program/Project Manager and Systems Engineer in the
Defense Systems Project Life Cycle Processes
(DOD, 2010)
Research Background:
Systems Engineering (SE) & Project
Management (PM)
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 11/31
11
The Responsibility of Program/Project Manager and Systems Engineer
in the Defense Systems Project Life Cycle Processes(DOD, 2010)
Research Background:
Systems Engineering (SE) & Project
Management (PM)
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 12/31
Research Model: PM Cost
Estimating Model
November 3rd, 2010The 25th Int’l Forum on COCOMO &
Systems/Software Cost Modeling 12
SE PM
Case 1
SE
Scenario 1:
PM effort = f(SE effort)
Scenario 2:
PM effort ≠ f(SE effort)
What is the dependency
between SE & PM?• how much SE effort do we
need to know before we
can determine PM effort
independently?
• If possible, how early in LC
can we assess PM effort?
Or it must be done
Interdependently?
Many suggested both SE/PMare related, but their costs
and efforts were rarely
mentioned…
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 13/31
Research Model: PM Cost
Estimating Model
November 3rd, 2010The 25th Int’l Forum on COCOMO &
Systems/Software Cost Modeling 13
SE
Case 2
SE
PM
Scenario 1:
PM effort = f(SE effort)
Scenario 2:
PM effort ≠ f(SE effort)
• Is SE part of PM?
• Eisner’s view (2008) on
SE/PM• Is it common in industries?
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 14/31
Research Model: PM Cost
Estimating Model
November 3rd, 2010The 25th Int’l Forum on COCOMO &
Systems/Software Cost Modeling 14
PM
Case 3
SE
SE
Scenario 1:
PM effort = f(SE effort)
Scenario 2:
PM effort ≠ f(SE effort)
If PM is part of SE… • how much SE effort do
we need to know before
we can determine PM
effort?
This view is usually shared in
SE oriented communities &
gov’t entities…
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 15/31
15
Research Model: PM Cost
Estimating Model
Model #1~ Synthesized via COSYSMO (Valerdi, 2005)
Where,PMNS = effort in Person Months (Nominal Schedule)
A = calibration constant derived from historical project data
k = {REQ, IF, ALG, SCN}
wk = weight for “easy”, “nominal”, or “difficult” size driver
Φk = quantity of “k” size driver
E = represents diseconomies of scale
EM = effort multiplier for the j th cost driver. The geometric product results in an overall
effort adjustment factor to the nominal effort.
14
1
,,,,,, )( j
j
E
k
k d k d k nk nk ek e NS EM www A PM
SE PM
Case A: PM = f(SE)
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 16/31
16
Research Model: PM Cost
Estimating Model
Potential model parameters were predetermined through variousknowledge sources (e.g. books, scholar publications, research
whitepapers, dissertations, professional and government publications,
etc.)• Aerospace Engineering
•Civil Engineering
•Computer Science•Construction Engineering and Management
•Defense/Military
•Engineering Management
•Government
•Information Technology
•Management Information Systems•Professional Societies
•Project Management
•Risk Management
•Software Engineering
•Systems Engineering
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 17/31
17
Research Model: PM Cost
Estimating ModelThe initial 18 PM effort multipliers are listed as following:
These initial PM cost
indicators were determinedto be possibly correlated to
factors that have effects on
SE/PM cost adjustment
factors (Akintoye, 2000;
Anderson and Brown, 2004;
Crawford et al., 2005; de
Wit, 1988; Hamaker andComponation, 2005;
Hartman and Ashrafi, 2002;
Honour, 2010; NASA, 2010;
Valerdi, 2005)
1. Scope Understanding
2. Scope Volatility
3. Scope Growth
4. Requirements Volatility
5. Requirements Growth
6. Budget Constraints7. Schedule Span
8. Project Complexities
9. Systems Complexities
10. Documentation Level
11. Level of Service Requirements
12. Stakeholder Cohesion13. Project Management Maturity
14. Project Management Experience/Continuity
15. Process Capability
16. Technology Maturity and Risk
17. Tool Support
18. Multisite Coordination
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 18/31
Research Model: PM Cost
Estimating Model
November 3rd, 2010The 25th Int’l Forum on COCOMO &
Systems/Software Cost Modeling 18
PM SE System
Complexity
Project
Complexity
Is PM effort p roport ional to SE effort?
What if PM ≠ f(SE) ?
R h M d l PM C
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 19/31
19
Research Model: PM Cost
Estimating Model
Model #2
Where,PMNS = effort in Person Months (Nominal Schedule)
A = calibration constant derived from historical project data
k = {REQ, PCR, CST, SCM, DCL}
wk = weight for “easy”, “nominal”, “difficult”, or “low”, “medium”, “high” size driver
Φk = quantity of “k” size driver
E = represents diseconomies of scale
EM = project management eff ic iency multiplier for the j th cost driver. The geometric
product results in an overall effort adjustment factor to the nominal effort.
5
1
,,,,,, )( j
j
E
k
k d k d k nk nk ek e NS EM www A PM
R h M d l PM C t
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 20/31
20
Research Model: PM Cost
Estimating Model
Requirements
& Scope (REQ)
Project
Complexity &
Risk (PCR)
Constraints
(CST)
Stakeholder
Cohesion &
MultisiteCoordination
(SCM)
Document &
Comm Level
(DCL)
REQ
Efficiency: PPT
PCR Efficiency:
PPT
CST Efficiency:
PPT
SCMEfficiency: PPT
DCL Efficiency:
PPT
SE= PMNS
X
X
X
X
X
PPT = Project Management Capabi l i ty and Matur i ty on Peop le, Process & Too ls
Consolidated 5 Cost Factor Categories
R h M d l PM C t
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 21/31
21
Research Model: PM Cost
Estimating Model
Cost Factor #1Requirements & Scope (REQ)
– How well understood is the project?•Scope of requirements
•Number of requirements•How well they are defined
•Statement of Work (SOW), Work Breakdown Structure
(WBS), etc
•Volatility/Rate at which they are changing
•Expect any new/additional requirements ~ Requirement
Creep?
Related& Depends on SE
R h M d l PM C t
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 22/31
22
Research Model: PM Cost
Estimating Model
Cost Factor #2Project Complexity & Risk (PCR)
– How much risk is there?•What is the level of risk for the project?
•What is stakeholders’ risk attitude – risk adverse?•How difficult is it to assess the risk?
•How complex is the project?
•Project Complexities
•organizational, technological/product
•e.g. PM related integration, coordination, etc
•Number of known project complexity and risks
Related& Depends on SE
R h M d l PM C t
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 23/31
23
Research Model: PM Cost
Estimating Model
Cost Factor #3Constraints (CST)
– How tight are the constraints?•Schedule Span
•Time constraints•Deliverable date
• Amount of slack time allowed
•Budget Constraints•Money/Cost constraints
•Resource Constraints•Human Resources
•Function/Feature•Minimum acceptable features
•Quality
•Minimum acceptance by customers
Partially relatedto SE
R h M d l PM C t
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 24/31
24
Research Model: PM Cost
Estimating ModelCost Factor #4
Stakeholder Cohesion & Multisite Coordination
(SCM)
– Amount of external PM work to be done
•Number of stakeholders•Diversity of stakeholders
•e.g., have opposing goals/objectives, have different world
views
•Communication challenges
•external clients, internal clients, contractors,languages, time zone difference, etc
R h M d l PM C t
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 25/31
25
Research Model: PM Cost
Estimating ModelCost Factor #5
Documentation & Communication Level (DCL)
– Amount of internal PM work to be done• Amount and complexity of required documentation
•e.g., project plan, resource management plan, statusreports, etc
• Amount and complexity of required communications
•Cubical/office noise
•Solving project issues
•e. g., number, length and frequency of meetings, etc
R h M d l PM C t
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 26/31
26
Research Model: PM Cost
Estimating Model
Requirements
& Scope (REQ)
Project
Complexity &
Risk (PCR)
Constraints
(CST)
Stakeholder
Cohesion &
MultisiteCoordination
(SCM)
Document &
Comm Level
(DCL)
REQ
Efficiency: PPT
PCR Efficiency:
PPT
CST Efficiency:
PPT
SCMEfficiency: PPT
DCL Efficiency:
PPT
SE= PMNS
X
X
X
X
X
PPT = Project Management Capabi l i ty and Matur i ty on Peop le, Process & Too ls
5 PM Efficiency Multipliers (PPT)
R h M d l PM C t
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 27/31
27
Research Model: PM Cost
Estimating ModelProject Management Efficiency Multipliers
Capability & Maturity of People, Process & Tools (PPT)
People Capabil i ty – PM Attr ib utes*•Communication skills
•PM experience
•Information sharing willingness
•Delegates appropriately•Well-organized
•Supports and motivates project team
•Open-minded and flexible
•Provide constructive criticism
•Positive attitude
•Technical competency
•Team builder & player• Ability to evaluate and select project resources
•Goal oriented
•Courage and conflict solving skills
•Problem solver
•Take initiative
•Creativity
•Integrator (team, PM activities, etc)
•Decision making skills
R h M d l PM C t
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 28/31
28
Research Model: PM Cost
Estimating ModelProject Management Efficiency Multipliers (cont’d)
Capability & Maturity of People, Process & Tools (PPT)
Process Matur i ty**•PM process maturity (CMMI, The Berkeley PM Process Maturity Model)
•Organization PM maturity (PMI-OPM3)
•Initial•Repeatable
•Defined
•Managed
•Optimized
Too l Suppo rt**
•Level of tool automation•Very few primitive tools
•Basic/Micro tools
•Extensive/Few Integrative tools
•Moderately integrated environment
•Fully integrated environment
*Adapted from Software Development Cost Estimating Guidebook (USAF Air Logistics Center, July, 2009) & Essentials of Project and systemsEngineering Management (Eisner, 2008)
**Adapted from Software Development Cost Estimating Guidebook (USAF Air Logistics Center, July, 2009)
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 29/31
Survey
• Please take some time to answer each question
• Feel free to ask questions
29
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 30/31
Questions for Discussion
• In industry, if the same person who performs both
SE/PM functions, how do you estimate such effort?
• Which case and effort function scenario do you think is
more realistic? Why?
• How do industry corporations and government estimate
PM cost & effort?
• What type of tool & method do they use?
• How can the propose model become more practical and
applicable for industry use?
• What is missing in this research?
30
8/11/2019 Imate the Life Cycle Cost and Effort of Project Management for Technology Centric Systems Development Projects_Young_Valerdi
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/imate-the-life-cycle-cost-and-effort-of-project-management-for-technology-centric 31/31
Additional Questions?
Suggestions?
Comments?
Thank You Very Much for Your Time!!!
31