imagining a green, beautiful oak bay in 2034

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Imagining a Beautiful Green Future Oak Bay, 2034

Guy DaunceyOak Bay Heritage Society, 2014


Our first home in Oak Bay


Our second home in Oak Bay


Heritage: to me that means ‘built with love,’ which makes us

want to preserve it.

Big picture: we have come a long way from this…

To this…


but…


Smithore Dreamstime.com

We have also come to this…


GDP =GrossDepletion of the

Planet


Gross Depletion of the Planet

+ Yield - Costs= Profit


Gross Depletion of the Planet

Garth Lenz

Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com


Liquefied Natural Gas - also a Fossil Fuel


As we burn the fossil fuels…

Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

CO2 CO2CO2

CO2

CO2 CO2

100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second

Climate Emergency

The last time the world was 3°C warmer

the sea level was 25 metres higher

2 metres

10 metres

18 metres

25 metres

1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net


1 metre sea-level rise


20 metre sea-level rise

We have also come to this…


And this…

And this…

The power of our vision

must be stronger than

the power of our fears


“The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.”

― Eleanor Roosevelt


"Dreams are extremely important. You can't do it unless you can imagine it.”

- George Lucas


So what is our vision of a beautiful, desirable future

for Oak Bay?


Seven Themes1: Transportation without Fossil Fuels

2: The Return of Nature

3: Local Urban Farming

4: The Streets Where We Live

5: Affordable Housing

6: Energy without Fossil Fuels

7: How Do We Make It Happen?

Transportation without Oil

We love you mama

Mama, waaah! Where are you?

The Joyful Pedestrian

Neighbourhood Walkability Auditwww.walklive.org

Toronto Walking School Bus

The Joyful Cyclist

In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement is by bicycle

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com CRD Pedestrian and Cycling Master Plan

Safe bike lanes and routes Good bike parking Cycling education in schools

Electric Bikes

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

The Copenhagen Wheel

Tony’s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com

The Joyful Transit Rider

Free transit, paid in city taxesFrom 1996-2006 ridership increased

from 1,000 to 12,600 riders a dayPayment is now $1 per ride.

Hasselt, Belgium

Real-time electronic bus stops

2034Heritage Oak Bay Bus Shelters

Stockholm – 200 buses run on biogas from sewage treatment

100% Electric Buses

OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea


Small local connector buses

See

Victoria Carshare Coop650 members share 23 vehicles

www.victoriacarshare.ca

The Happy Car Sharer


2014


2034

Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing

Vehicles owners earnup to $300 a month

Top

Hiroko EV

Renault Twizy EV 2 seats, 100 km range 80 kph, 3.5 hours recharge $9,700 + $60/month battery lease

In UK: $10,600 + $65 monthly battery lease charge

Top


Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range


Smart Electric – 135 km range

Mitsubishi MiEV – 150 km range


Toyota RAV4 EV - 148 km range

Tesla Model-X: 300-400 km range

10,000 km = 1,500 kWh1,500 kwh @ 10 cents = $13 a month

Gas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month

The Cost of Power for Electric Cars

EV Bargain!!10 times cheaper

to run!

1.5 kW solar PV $6,000

5% 25 year mortgage on $6,000 = $35 a month

Gas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month


No fossil fuel pollution = clear skies


2: The Return of Nature


Brooklyn Public School 216 Arturo Toscanini, New York

Turning dull concrete schoolyards…


into Green Schoolyards

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Restoring Bowker Creek


Rainwater Storage


Semiahmoo Transit StationSurrey, BC, Canada

Bringing greenery into our towns and cities…


www.greenovergrey.com


Hundertwasserhaus, Vienna


Musee du Quai Branly, ParisPatrick Blanc, Le Mur Vegetal

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Athenaeum Hotel, London Patrick Blanc

Guy Dauncey 2014Guy Dauncey 2014www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com 3: Urban Farming

Food imported to Vancouver Island:

95%


Boulevards being ‘vegetablized’


Schools Growing Their Own Food

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com 4: The Streets Where We Live


London: a Garden Bridge across the ThamesThomas Heatherwick


The HighlineConverted Railway,

New York


Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea

Before and After


Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea


Creekside Commons Cohousing, Courtenay



Portland, Oregon www.CityRepair.org


5: Affordable Housing


Affordability Initiatives

Inclusionary Zoning: eg all new developments must include 20%

affordable and 15% low income units



Density Bonusing:Additional units in return for

extra community benefits



Secondary Suites…But with a “no cars” covenant


Car-Free Laneway Housing


Rooftop Housing


Communal ownership


A Community Land Trustbuys land for affordable housing

Hannah Wittman/Michelle Colussi


$$ for the Community Land Trust•Progressively increasing tax on real estate sales over $2 million

•15% sales tax on properties bought through offshore companies

•Annual levy on properties registered offshore for tax reasons

•Escalating tax on empty properties to stop developers from sitting on them


Micro-homes

502 Alexander StVancouver

280 sq ft

12 units, base cost $85,000 each

CMHC


Communal Renting legal for more than five people



6: Energy without Fossil Fuels

2014: 4 kW PV = $16,0004,400 kWh year


2034: 4 kW PV = $6,0004,400 kWh year


Will save $30,000 - $60,000 over the 30 year life of the panels

100 GW in 2012

Solar PV 7000% increase since 2000



134 GWin 2013

9000% increase

since 2000


Solar Hot Water


Air Source Solar Heat


Water-Source Solar Heat


Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com


Construction costs: 4.3% more per square foot


Monthly net energy savings more than the increased mortgage


Neolithic Era

Ancient Egypt

Roman Empire

Islamic Golden Age

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

The Age of Oil……………………………………….

The last 10,000 years


The last 10,000 years

...................................................

What happens here,when we stop using oil?


A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years


A billion years

The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

And with every passing year, solar technology will improve

and get cheaper.


7: A CooperativeEconomy

Businesses flourishing in harmony with other businesses, and with workers,

community, nature and the world.


Many businesses have become Benefit Corporations


Most businesses have Women Directors on the Board

“Companies with more Women Board Directors experience higher financial performance,

according to latest Catalyst Bottom Line Report.”


All businesses are incentivized to acquire

Green Business Certification


Youth Enterprise Initiatives flourish


Time-banking is flourishing

VANCOUVER


Student Debt problems have been solved


The Oregon Solution: Pay It Forward

The Sharing Economy is thriving


A Good Minimum Wage is Normal…


A Happy, Resilient Future

More walking, biking, bus, carsharing

Lower transport costs

More urban food gardens Cheaper and healthier eating

Innovative affordable housing Lower housing costs

Stronger neighbourhoods More friends, more real community

More urban greenery More inner space, and peace

Stronger community economy More financial security

Green, energy-efficient homes Lower energy costs

No more fossil fuels Clean air, clear sky, quiet city

More civic engagement Healthier political realm

Basic Income Less poverty, fear and homelessness

More arts, music and neighbourhood celebration

More friends, more happiness, more love


7: How Do We Make It Happen?

Community engagement


Engaging Young People

www.leadingchangenetwork.com


Electronic ballotsVoting aged reduced to 16

Transferable Voting for City Hall$100 tax credit for voting


Design the Future Community Meetings


A Green, Sustainable Future is not an ‘Option’

It is an Urgent Necessity

Special Price

$5


This is about us, our planet,our children and our future.


www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey


Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com

imagining a green, beautiful oak bay in 2034

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co2 co2 co2 co2 co2

metre sealevel rise

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beautiful green future

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desirable future