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The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.
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Cynthia CorzoEditor, Hispanic Market Weekly
Cynthia Corzo is editor of Hispanic Market Weekly. In this role,
she oversees all of the editorial content in both the weekly
newsletter and on www.hispanicmarketweekly.com. She joined
Hispanic Market Weekly in 2002 after 14 years at El Nuevo
Herald and The Miami Herald.
Corzo has successfully established solid relationships with
agencies, advertisers and media outlets active in the Hispanic
market, delivering for Hispanic Market Weekly a steady stream of
scoops, breaking news and solicited content.
The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.
Webinar Agenda• The Power of The Latino Vote, Cesar M. Melgoza, Geoscape
• The Bilingual Electorate & Latino Outreach, Dr. Gary Segura,
Latino Decisions
• Inside Latino Voters and the Media, Pilar Marrero, La Opinión
• Q&A
Presenters
Access the New Mainstream
2012 and Beyond
The Power of the Latino Vote
César M Melgoza
Founder & CEO
Geoscape
www.geoscape.com
1-888-211-9353
Actionable insights for public service and business expansion
Overview
• American Diversity :: The New Mainstream
– The ―Growth-Majority‖.
– Who‘s driving economic growth?
• Latino Voting Behavior and Party Affiliation.
– The ―Latino Voter Lag‖.
– Swinging allegiances.
7© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353.
American Cultural Diversity
The Latino Growth Majority
Latinos represented 56 percent of America’s population growth
between 2000 and 2010 and grew at 9x the rate of non-Latinos.
Population Change by Ethnicity/Race
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 9Source: Geoscape; American Marketscape DataStream: 2011 Series and the U.S. Census Bureau.
Notes: Population of Puerto Rico is not included in Hispanic population figures. * 2000-2011-2016 numbers for Asian and Black are for Non-Hispanic; 2011 and 2016 Estimates as of July 1
By 2016, the population in the three largest ethnic groups will be nearly 115 million and Hispanics will represent over half of that population.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2011 2016
Non-Hispanic White Hispanic Black Asian
U.S
. P
opula
tion
(in m
illio
ns)
Years
Hispanics became the largest ―minority‖ group
in 2000 and have continued to surge.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Per
cen
tage
Years
NH White Hispanic NH Black NH Asian Multicultural
Non-Hispanic White population drops below 50% of the U.S.
population in 2040
Population 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2011 2016 2050
NH Asian & PI 980,337 980,337 3,500,439 6,994,034 10,410,556 14,717,118 16,518,783 34,952,900
NH Black* 18,871,831 22,580,289 26,495,025 29,284,605 33,707,230 38,021,109 39,945,184 52,122,797
Hispanic 2,181,409 9,589,216 14,608,673 21,898,546 35,238,481 51,233,818 58,398,328 133,543,59
4
NH Other 157,198,59
8
170,062,084 181,941,668 190,507,602 202,065,639 207,880,430 212,277,086 216,901,24
8
Total 179,232,17
5
203,211,926 226,545,805 248,684,787 281,421,906 312,180,883 326,127,959 437,520,53
9
Hispanic Concentration: 1990
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 10
Concentration previously in Southwestern states – darkest shade
is 50% or greater
Hispanic Concentration: 2016
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 11
Concentration spreading towards North and East with significant
populations throughout U.S.
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-17 18-20 21-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+
Pe
rce
nt H
isp
an
ic P
op
ula
tio
n
Age Ranges
% Hispanic
% Non-Hispanic
Hispanics by Age Range Distribution
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 12
Source: Geoscape, American Marketscape DataStream: 2011
Series.
About 70% of Hispanics are under 40 compared to 51% of Non-Hispanics whereas more
than 92% of the retirement-age population is Non-Hispanic.
The Hispanic population is younger than the Non-Hispanic population, with a significantly greater proportion of all population cohorts in the under 40 age groups—indicating an oncoming spending wave. Conversely, the
retirement age population is predominantly non-Hispanic.
The New Digital Divide
Hispanics have very high penetration of
smartphones for texting, internet browsing,
etc. on a par with Asians and ahead of White
and African Americans13
Today nearly 2/3 of Hispanics are online,
with a heavier skew among the English-
speaking, more acculturated population.
Hispanics are among the most avid social media
users and are 3x more likely to create online content.© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353.
The changing business and
political landscape
Powerful Trends for Savvy Politicians
Who‘s driving economic growth?
Source: Geoscape Consumer Spending Dynamix.™
Hispanics represent about 12 percent of American households but contribute nearly half of the growth in consumer spending— and with the addition of Asians are responsible for two-thirds of
spending growth. The data below are for 2010 and are expected to increase further for 2011.
Annual Consumer Spending Growth „09 –‟10
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 15
Which consumer is worth more?
Source: Geoscape Consumer Spending Dynamix.™
Acquiring a household today and retaining it throughout their lifespan will result in very different cumulative revenue due to age, spending and life expectancy.
Asian households will spend the most, followed by Hispanics. Each sector varies, often the average spending per household higher even if income is lower. Differences in lifespan result in compelling outcomes in favor of Hispanic and Asian consumers.
The continued rapid growth in the Hispanic population will result in an aggregate spending worth that is becoming difficult to ignore—making it more important and strategic for corporations to shift their investment priorities.
16
Lifetime Household Spending 2010+ NH White NH Black NH Asian NH Hispanic
Food at Home $161,741 $133,565 $227,231 $261,551
Food at Home and Away $278,321 $217,525 $404,180 $411,335
Personal Care $26,863 $26,247 $34,750 $32,748
Apparel $67,976 $95,098 $109,260 $124,027
Home Furnishings $63,997 $53,347 $87,843 $58,120
Transportation $360,334 $302,614 $494,944 $456,903
Entertainment $126,388 $74,689 $199,227 $104,842
Subtotal $1,085,619 $903,085 $1,557,435 $1,449,525
Other $1,086,340 $865,697 $1,537,514 $1,073,610
Total $2,171,959 $1,768,782 $3,094,949 $2,523,135
Hispanic
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353.
The Future of America's Tax Base
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 17Source: Geoscape analysis of department of commerce data
and AMDS.
1950 2050
0%
100%Anglo middle-class in the workforce
Latinos in the workforce
• America‟s “Golden Era” of economic
vitality post WW2 in about 1950 and may
be steadily eroding…
• Unless significant investment in the
younger workforce members is initiated.
• School age population and younger
workforce members are disproportionately
Hispanic and will increasingly represent
the tax-paying public.
• Boomers will represent the majority of the
retirees, drawing Social Security and
Medicare benefits and depending on a
vital public works and national security
infrastructure.
• The best way to ensure vital tax base is to
invest in the ability for Hispanics to
acquire high-earning jobs.
Congressional District Map
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 18
Latinos form an increasing proportion of key states and congressional districts
throughout the nation. However, to reach reaching par to the overall would require
14 additional U.S. Senators and 47 additional members of the U.S. Congress.
Congressional District Map
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 19
Oddly shaped boundaries are common among congressional
districts – the decennial redistricting process is usually
very controversial.
Eligible Voters by Ethnicity/Race
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 20Source: Pew Research Center tabulations from the Current Population Survey, November Supplements .
Due to the Latino population’s youth and the number of non-citizens, the
voting eligible population is only about 43 percent – but expected to increase.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Hispanic White Black Asian
42.7
77.7
67.1
52.7
22.4
1.4
4.024
34.9
20.928.9
23.3
Eligible Voters as a Share of Total Population for Major Racial and Ethnic Groups, 2010 (Percent)
Under 18
Non Citizen
Voting Eligible
Eligible Voters by Ethnicity/Race
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 21
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
84.9 84.6 82.5 80.7 79.2 76.3
9.8 9.910.6 11.5
11.012.1
3.6 3.8 4.7 5.46 7.4
0 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.5
Demographic Composition of Voters by Race & Ethnicity, 1988-2008 (% of voters)
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source: Pew Research Center tabulations from the Current Population Survey, November Supplements .
Latinos formed more than 12
percent of eligible voters in 2008 and
as U.S. born Latinos reach adult age, this
will accelerate rapidly.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
All White Black Hispanic Asian
63.6 66.1 65.2
49.9 47.0
63.867.2
60.3
47.244.6
-0.2-1.1 4.9
2.7
2.4
Change in Voter Turnout Rates Among Eligible Voters, 2008 and 2004 (Percent)
2008 2004 % Change
Eligible Voters vs. Voters
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 22
Voter participation increased significantly in the last general
election – African Americans nearly 5 percent and Latinos nearly 3
percent more that in 2004.
Source: Pew Research Center tabulations from the Current Population Survey, November Supplements .
Party Affiliation
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 23
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1999 2002 2004* 2006 2007
58 56 5549
57
2525 28
28
23
Percent Who Identify With or Lean to a Party
Democratic Republican
Although most Latinos identify with the Democratic party, alliance with
Republicans increased during the GW Bush years – in part due to his ―in-
culture outreach‖ to Hispanics.
Source: Pew Hispanic Center, 2002-2007 National Surveys of Latinos (*June 2004); and Washington Post/Kaiser
Family Foundation/Harvard University, 1999 National Survey on Latinos in America.
• Democrat– Have tended to push civil rights
issues and look after
disadvantaged groups.
– Older acculturated Latinos will
remember and tend to stay loyal.
– Attract supporters of with social
issues such as abortion, gay
marriage.
– Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Central
Americans tend to affiliate.
– Younger groups of all origins who
grew up more progressive in
diverse communities.
• Republican– More recently have embraced
Hispanics.
– Often for political convenience.
– Pro-business, anti-tax sentiment.
– Tend to connect on moral/religious
issues.
– Newer migrants will not realize
contributions of democrats to Latino
progress.
– Anti-Castro Cuban exiles tend to
align.
– Evangelical Christians may convert
from democratic party.
Political Party Affiliation Tendencies
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 24
Party Dynamics
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 25
Tax the
Wealthy
Strong Military
Civil RightsArdent Christians
Rep
ub
lica
n
Democrat
Vulnerable
Republicans
to Switch
Democrat
Base
Vulnerable
Democrats
to Switch
Republican
Base
Party Affiliation by Hispanicity
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 26
Party affiliation varies by acculturation level. Unacculturated Latinos are more likely Independent whereas Republicans
Latinos tend to be acculturated.
Courting Latinos in 2012
• Latinos ever-increasing voter clout.
• Latino allegiances result more and more into a swing-vote.
• All parties need to consider addressing Latino issues.
• Party affiliation varies by state, country-of-origin and
socioeconomic status.
• Republican have historically been less attentive to key Latino
issues.
• Latino sentiment about the current administration has
diminished.
• Latino ―family values‖ lean republican but economic issues
lean democrat.
• Latino public is in a strategic position to court both parties.
Strategic
Tactical27
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353.
Access the New Mainstream
2012 and Beyond
The Power of the Latino Vote
César M Melgoza
Founder & CEO
Geoscape
www.geoscape.com
1-888-211-9353
Actionable insights for public service and business expansion
• Since 2007, Latino Decisions has completed more than 10,000 interviews with Latino voters
• One trend is consistent over and over again: you must engage Latinos in both English and Spanish to be effective
• A third of registered voters are predominantly reliant on Spanish Media
• Half of all citizens—and a majority of citizens not registered—rely on Spanish media:– Growing the Latino Electorate depends on bilingual appeals
The Bilingual Electorate
www.latinodecisions.com
When you watch television, do you watch Spanish-
language stations more often, English-language
stations more often, or do you watch both equally?
June 2008 March 2010 Sep 10
Reg Non-Reg Citz All Citizens Reg
Spanish mostly 22% 43% 37% 29%
Both exactly equal 33% 41% 30% 32%
English mostly 45% 13% 32% 39%
Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, June 2008
Latino Decisions / NALEO, March 2010, national poll of citizen adults (all
eligible voters instead of just registered)
Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, September 2010, national poll
The Bilingual Electorate: TV
www.latinodecisions.com
How about when you listen to the radio?
Reg Non-Reg Citz
Spanish mostly 32% 51%
Both exactly equal 24% 27%
English mostly 44% 12%
Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, June 2008
The Bilingual Electorate: Radio
www.latinodecisions.com
There are a lot of different sources of news and information. When it comes to news and information about the election, which source do you trust the most to deliver the best information?
June 2008 March ‘10 Sep ‗10
Reg Non-Reg Citz All Citizens Reg
Spanish news 31% 58% 49% 35%
Both exactly equal 19% 18% 12% 13%
English news 47% 22% 38% 48%
Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, June 2008
Latino Decisions / NALEO, March 2010, national poll of citizen adults (all eligible voters instead of just registered)
Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, September 2010, national poll
Bilingual Electorate: News Reliability
www.latinodecisions.com
Political party‘s, candidates, and civic groups sometimes
send people postcards or flyers in the mail before the
election. Are you more likely to pay attention to these if
they are in Spanish, in English, or in Spanish and
English equally?
Nevada ‗08 National ‗10
Spanish 19% 20%
Bilingual/both 48% 40%
English 25% 32%
Latino Decisions / NALEO, September 2008 – Latino registered voters in Nevada
Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, September 2010 – national poll
The Bilingual Electorate: Contact!
www.latinodecisions.com
• Media strategies of both parties must include
English and Spanish outreach, and the message is
not always the same.
• Don‘t believe any polling of registered voters that
has less than 30% answering in Spanish.
• Exit polls, which typically have only 6-8% of
Hispanic interviews in Spanish, are particularly bad.
The Bilingual Electorate: Contact!
www.latinodecisions.com
2012 Presidential Election:
A Question of Turnout, Population
Growth, Immigration, and
Outreach
www.latinodecisions.com
The Growing Electorate
www.latinodecisions.com
• In 2008, Latino voters were instrumental in several states, sometimes with margins exceeding state margin:– Latinos likely decisive in New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada,
North Carolina, Indiana, and Florida:
– Yes, North Carolina and Indiana!
• In 2010, Latinos saved the day for:– Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn
– Colorado Senator Michael Bennett
– Nevada Senator Harry Reid
• Failure to focus on Latinos costs Alex Sink the FL gubernatorial election.
Latino Effect in 2008 and 2010
www.latinodecisions.com
• Latino political power in California, Texas and New
York is often overlooked because the states are not
competitive. But– California is not competitive precisely because of the Latino electorate.
Absent Latinos, California elections are a virtual tie, and before Latino
mobilization around and after 1994 (Prop 187), California was a largely
GOP state in statewide elections.
– Latinos are the key to any future competitiveness in Texas. It is for this
reason that George W. Bush and, to a lesser extent, Rick Perry avoided
racially polarizing legislation that has appeared in California, Colorado,
Arizona and elsewhere.
– Latinos in New York are heavily Democratic and play a powerful role in
NYC politics, particularly Democratic primaries.
Overlooked Power
www.latinodecisions.com
• Latinos will likely comprise approximately 9.5% of the
electorate in 2012.
• Latinos will be critical voices in shaping outcomes in
Southwestern swing states like Colorado, Nevada, and New
Mexico, as well as the ever-pivotal Florida.
• Even small Latino populations could be decisive in
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa.
• GOP strategists believe they must win 40% of the Latino vote
to prevail, prompting rumors of Marco Rubio or New Mexico
Governor Susana Martinez as the VP selection.
Looking Forward to 2012
www.latinodecisions.com
• Don‘t listen if either campaign tells you Immigration is not the Latino voting
issue.
• Our June Poll showed that 53% of all LATINO REGISTERED VOTERS
count among their friends or family an undocumented immigrant.
• Many (25%) know someone facing immigration enforcement.
Immigration Matters in 2012
www.latinodecisions.com
• This affects the President‘s approval on the matter…
• Recent policy shifts must be understood against this background.
Immigration Matters in 2012
www.latinodecisions.com
• So key issues among Latinos will be Jobs and Immigration.
• Disappointment with the administration more likely to result in abstention than switching.
• The President‘s chances with Latino voters will be driven by three factors:– The impact of recent efforts to ameliorate his immigration policy;
– The unemployment rate, and perceptions of efforts to improve things; and most importantly
– What the GOP nominee says about Latinos and immigrants. Republicans have long been among the most effective Democratic turnout strategies.
Looking Forward to 2012
www.latinodecisions.com
The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.
Latino Voters:
Who are
They?
The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.
Thru the Eyes of Own
Media.
The Latino Community
The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.
Key to Latinos Today: The Last 25 Years
1930 1931 1970
The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.
1979 19911980
The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.
1995 1997 1999
The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.
20062005 2008 2009
The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.
2010 Today
The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.
Growth Population by Birth and
Immigration
Growth Population by Birth
and Immigration.
The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.
Latinos More than
Doubled in
population in the
Last 20 Years.
The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.
What Exactly is Latino?
The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.
…It’s About Family.
Latinos Care About Immigrants and
Immigration Policy.
The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.
Latinos are
Conservative… But Not
“That Way.”
The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.
Latino Politicians: What’s Changing…
The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.
Latinos and
The American Dream.
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