iis scenarios revisited curry leuven0610
TRANSCRIPT
Learning from the UK’s
Intelligent Infrastructure
ScenariosAndrew Curry, The Futures Company
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Foresight’s Intelligent Infrastructure Futures
• Foresight: takes a long-term view of long-
term issues where science and technology
can be influential
• Intelligent Infrastructure Systems project was
sponsored by the Department of Transport,
which still uses the scenarios as part of its
long-term thinking
• The project combined drivers analysis,
scenarios development, systems work, and
socio-technical studies, as well as ‘state of
science’ reviews from leading academics -
social scientists as well as technologists
• The output is in the public domain and can
be freely downloaded:
http://www.foresight.gov.uk/OurWork/Comple
tedProjects/IIS/KeyInfo/Index.asp
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Accepting of Intelligent
Infrastructure
Resistant to Intelligent
Infrastructure
High Impact
Transport Low impact
Transport
Good Intentions
Urban Colonies
Perpetual Motion
Tribal Trading
Summarising the scenarios
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Accepting of Intelligent
Infrastructure
Resistant to Intelligent
Infrastructure
High Impact
Transport Low impact
Transport
Perpetual Motion
Technology applied
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Designing out demandAccepting of Intelligent
Infrastructure
Resistant to Intelligent
Infrastructure
High Impact
Transport
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Urban Colonies
‘At a gross density
of 50 dph, 5,000
dwellings can be
within a 10 minute
walk of public
services, schools
and viable public
transport.’MJP Architects, ‘Sustainable Suburbia’
Low impact
Transport
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The impact of resource limits
Resistant to Intelligent
Infrastructure
High Impact
Transport Low impact
Transport
4
Tribal Trading
Accepting of Intelligent
Infrastructure
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Reduction through rationing Accepting of Intelligent
Infrastructure
Resistant to Intelligent
Infrastructure
High Impact
Transport
4
Economic Insecurity
Good Intentions
Low impact
Transport
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Accepting of Intelligent
Infrastructure
Resistant to Intelligent
Infrastructure
High Impact
Transport Low impact
Transport
Economic
Insecurity
Good Intentions Perpetual Motion
Tribal Trading Urban Colonies
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Reflecting on the scenarios
• The only reliable way to reduce personal
transport demand is to focus on access not
mobility
– this takes a generation
– but it is happening
• Technology can help - but it needs to be
applied to reducing demand for private
personal transport
– otherwise it reduces equity
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Reflecting on the scenarios
• So far reducing personal transport use has only
happened generally as a result of fuel price
increases
– but this is a risky way to manage transport outcomes
• Decisive changes in transport behaviour are
likely to come quickly only through rationing or
pricing
– but car users resent it
– so this is a tough political challenge
– there need to be clear benefits associated with the
change10
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“How do you want
your kids to live?
Do you want to
walk or drive to get
bread? That' s the
basis of thinking
about cities.”http://www.resurgence.org/magazine/article518-CITIES-OF-JOY.html
Enrique Penalosa
© 2010 The Futures Company
Andrew Curry
+44 (0) 20 7955 1839
Thank you
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Annex : scenario highlights
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Perp
etu
al m
otion
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Urb
an
co
lon
ies
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Trib
al tr
ad
ing
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Go
od
in
ten
tio
ns