IIM Ahmedabad

AIM/Trend Model: India Results

Rajesh NairIndian Institute of Management

Ahmedabad, India

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on

Integrated Environment Assessment in the Asia Pacific Region

October24- 26, 2002

Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi

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Structure of the Presentation

•A brief introduction to the model

•The AIM/Trend output for India

•Conclusion

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The AIM/Trend Model

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Framework

•Target year: 2032 (“Rio+10”+30)

•Region : Each Asia-Pacific country

•Item : Economy (GDP, GDP share …)

Energy (demand, supply)

Environment (GHGs, water …)

•Type : Regression model

•Language: Microsoft Excel Macro, VBA

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Structure of AIM/Trend Model

PopulationEconomy

Energy Supply and Demand

GHGs Emissions Water Supply and Demand

DrivingForces

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Driving Forces

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India-Population

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Years

Mill

ion

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India-GDP

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Years

Bil

lio

n $

US

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India-GDP per Capita

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Years

$/C

apita

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India Results

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Energy Consumption by Demand Sector

0

10

20

30

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Years

Exa

Jou

les

Industry

Transport

Others

Agriculture

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India- Electricity Generation

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Years

PJ

Coal

Hydro

Nuclear

CRW & NEW

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India-Carbon Emissions

0

150

300

450

600

750

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Years

Mill

ion

Ton

nes

of C

arbo

n

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India- Carbon per Capita Emissions

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Years

Ton

/Cap

ita

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India - SO2 Emissions

0

3

6

9

12

15

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mil

lion

Ton

nes

of S

O2

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India-N2O Emissions

0

25

50

75

100

125

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Years

'000

Ton

nes

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Conclusion

• The model follows a simple methodology

• User can develop desired scenarios

• Model for policy analysis: e.g.– Coal is expected to be the main stay for power generation

– Rising carbon emissions, but per capita emissions below

developed country levels

• AIM/Trend is a suitable tool for future energy- environment analysis