IIASA

Zbigniew KlimontInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Uncertainties in the RAINS Estimates of National Emissions

Based on: Suutari, R., Amann, M., Cofala, J., Klimont, Z., Posch, M. and Schöpp, W. (2001) From Economic Activity to Ecosystems Protection in Europe: An Uncertainty Analysis for two Scenarios of the RAINS Model. CIAM/CCE Report 1/2001. A study funded by the UK Department of Environment, Transport and the Regions (DEFRA).

IIASA

Sources of uncertainties in emission calculation in the RAINS model

Model structure

Selected sectoral aggregationDetermination of mean values

Parameters Expected values for fuel quality, removal efficiencies

Forcing functions

Accuracy of statistical information on economic activitiesProjections of sectoral economic activities

Future implementation of emission controls

Initial state Uncontrolled emission factorsState of emission controls in the base year

IIASA

Methodology Emission calculations

em = emissionact = the activity level= uncertainty factor for the activity level cef = controlled emission factor per unit of activity= uncertainty factor for the emission factor ρ = coefficient of correlation

Model:

Expected emissions:

Covariance:

1][ :e wher

][

][],[

,

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

E

Ε

E

k m

pyixmqpykjixmqpykjixmqpykjix

qpyjixj q

qpyjixpyix

kkjixkjix

jjixix

kkjixkjixkjix

jjixjixix

ememcefcefafaf

actactememCov

cefafactem

cefafactem

IIASA

Assumed uncertainties in input parametersCoefficients of variation

SO2 NOx NMVOC NH3

Activity rates1990

20100.06 - 0.200.12 - 0.30

0.025 - 0.25

0.05 - 0.40

0.05 - 0.50

0.10 - 1.00

Emission factors

0.05- 0.10 0.075- 0.15 0.05 - 0.35 0.15 - 0.40

Removal efficiencies

0.005- 0.05 0.015- 0.10 0.005 - 0.25 0.05 - 0.15

IIASA

Top 10 SO2 source sectors UK, 1990 and 2010

IIASA

Top 10 NOx source sectors UK, 1990

IIASA

Sensitivity Analysis for UK Emission Estimates

IIASA

Uncertainties in national emissions in 1990 and 2010[95% confidence interval]

SO2 NOx NMVOC NH3

France ± 6/16 % ± 11/12 % ± 10/13 % ± 11/14 %

UK ± 11/15 % ± 10/11 % ± 9/14 % ± 12/17 %

Germany (NL) ± 16/15 % ± 15/12 % ± 18/17 % ± 16/15 %

Bulgaria ± 21/22 % ± 13/17 % ± 11/13 % ± 18/20 %

Slovakia ± 12/13 % ± 12/16 % ± 14/20 % ± 19/19 %

Slovenia ± 21/30 % ± 21/19 % ± 13/18 % ± 21/22 %

IIASA

Conclusions

Methodology is now available, but conclusions are still

incomplete and preliminary:

• The most uncertain elements in uncertainty analyses are

the uncertainties

• Correlations, distributions difficult to quantify

• Error compensation potential determines uncertainties

of estimates

• Implication for design of emission inventories