ii-sdv 2016 bob stembridge we have all the time in the world; a review of how different measures of...
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WE HAVE ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD
A review of how different measures of time provide different views of the world
BOB STEMBRIDGEIP & SCIENCE
REUTERS/Luke MacGregor
AGENDA
• The acceleration of change and the role
of innovation
• Standard view of the world
• Alternative views
• Case study – the automotive sector
• Projections
• Tracking technology evolution over time
• Summary
TIME CHANGES EVERYTHING
INNOVATION IS EVERYWHERE
Innovation has been a core
ingredient to improving people’s
lives for decades
THE PACE OF CHANGE
• Innovators are dedicated to pursuing new ideas
and finding answers – these answers are
transforming our world at lightning speed:
– 90% of the world’s data has been generated in the last 2
years
– 65% of today’s teenagers will hold jobs that don’t yet exist
– China alone generated over 820,000 invention patent
applications last year, up from 40,000 in 2003
UNDERSTANDING CHANGE
• Understanding change involves detecting and
measuring any significant changes over time to
determine areas of declining interest or new hot
emerging area
• What sources and measures of time to use?
– Scientific papers
– Patents
– Publication date
– Filing date
– Priority date
– Individual dates or moving windows
6
BASIC RESEARCH PRECEDES APPLIED RESEARCH
7
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Graphene
Scientific papers
Patents
Source: Web of ScienceTM and Derwent World Patents Index
BUT COMMERCIAL APPLICATION PRECEDES SCIENTIFIC REPORTING
Sildenafil, a novel effective
oral therapy for male
erectile dysfunction. Boolell
et al, Br J Urol Aug
1996;78:257-61
1994 19961995
Pfizer Viagra
patent
WO9428902
published 22
Dec 1994
THE LIFECYCLE OF INNOVATION
THE ROLE OF PATENTS
Research &
Innovation
Application &
Prosecution
Maintenance &
MonitoringLicensing &
Commercialization
Protection &
Assertion
COMMERCIAL
RETURN ON
INVESTMENT
A patent is a
contract between
the state and an
individual whereby
the state grants
monopoly rights to
the individual to
exploit their
invention in return
for which the
individual provides
full disclosure of
the invention
PATENTS - A KEY SOURCE FOR TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE
• Provide full description of technical development
• Disclose both inventors and owners of technical
developments
• Provide insight into potential markets of interest
• Comprise highly structured data amenable to
analysis
– Inventor/assignee names
– Patent country
– Publication date
– Technology classifications (IPC, US Class, Derwent
Manual Codes)
STANDARD VIEW OF THE WORLD
• Published patent applications/inventions by publication date
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
ne
n
Publication year
Global patents 2006-2015
Inventions
Publications
Source: Derwent World Patents Index® and Thomson Innovation®
ALTERNATIVE VIEWS OF THE WORLD
• Published patent applications/inventions by priority date
– Pendency
– Adjustment for global context
• Rates of change
– Annual
– Moving window
• Maturity
– Age of portfolio
– Remaining patent term
• Projections
INVENTIONS BY PUBLICATION/PRIORITY YEAR
14
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
ne
n
Year
Global inventions 2006-2015
Inventions bypublication year
Inventions bypriority year
Source: Derwent World Patents Index® and Thomson Innovation®
INVENTIONS BY PRIORITY + 18 MONTHS
15
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
ne
n
Year
Global Inventions 2006-2015Priority date shifted back 18 months
Inventions by publication year
Inventions by priority date shiftedback 18 months
Source: Derwent World Patents Index® and Thomson Innovation®
PENDENCY
16
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015to Jun
9th
2015Jun16th
2015afterJun16th
Delay between application and publication Brazil 2011-2015
Median (yrs)
Average (yrs)
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
1,20
1,40
Delay between application and publication US 2011-2015
Median (yrs)
Average (yrs)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
BR Apps 2015 by publication Date
NANOWIRES – HOT OR NOT?
17
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Nanowire basic patents 2006-2015
Source: Derwent World Patents Index® and Thomson Innovation®
NANOWIRES – HOT OR NOT?
18
1
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Nanowire basic patents -normalised by global count (2006 =1)
Publication
Year
Annual
growth rate
2006-
2007 14.6%
2008 8.8%
2009 6.1%
2010 11.6%
2011 -3.1%
2012 3.3%
2013 -2.6%
2014 11.1%
2015 -11.0%
CAGR 2006-2010 8.1%
CAGR 2011-2015 -0.1%
CASE STUDY – A VIEW OF THE AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR
19
RATES OF CHANGE
• Volume of inventions by publication/priority year
• Growth rate of automotive sector generally by
– Publication date
– Priority date
– Moving window
20
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Automotive sector 2010-2015
Publication date
Priority
Priority plus 18months
GROWTH RATES –ANNUAL AND MOVING WINDOW
21
-5,0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual growth rate
Publication date
Priority + 18 Months
-5,0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Biannual growth rate
Publication date
Priority + 18 months
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
14,0%
16,0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Triannual growth rate
Publication date
Priority + 18 months
AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY SUBSECTORS
22
15%
13%
11%
9%
8%
7%
6%
6%
5%
3%
3%
0%
Alternative Powered Vehicles
Seats, Seatbelts and Airbags
Suspension Systems
Braking Systems
Safety
Transmission
Steering Systems
Navigation Systems
Security Systems
Engine Design and Systems
Entertainment Systems
Pollution Control
Compound Annual Growth or Decline, Patent Activity, 2010-2015
MATURITY – AGE OF PORTFOLIO
23
60%
59%
59%
58%
58%
57%
56%
57%
56%
53%
52%
51%
40%
41%
41%
42%
42%
43%
44%
43%
44%
47%
48%
49%
Alternative Powered Vehicles
Suspension Systems
Seats, Seatbelts and Airbags
Safety
Automotive
Braking Systems
Transmission
Navigation Systems
Entertainment Systems
Security Systems
Engine Design and Systems
Pollution Control
% filed since 2013% filed prior to 2013
VALUE OF INVENTION IS TIME DEPENDENT
24
The term of the European patent shall be 20 years
as from the date of filing of the application
1: Filing date 2: Grant date 3: Patent expiry1
1 2
2
3
3
PROJECTIONS
25
PATENT PUBLISHED APPLICATIONS 2006 – 2010
26
PROJECTED PUBLISHED APPLICATIONS 2011 – 2015 AS OF 2010
27
Projections are given by a+bx, where and
and where x and y are the sample means
AVERAGE(known_x's) and AVERAGE(known y's).
ACTUAL PUBLISHED APPLICATIONS2006-2015
28
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Japan
USA
Europe
KR A
CN A
774996 922572
TRACKING TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION OVER TIME USING CITATIONS
29
A BY-PRODUCT OF WOOD PROCESSING IN SEARCH OF NEW APPLICATIONS
• CLA: Conjugated Linoleic
Acids
• Multiple-unsaturated C18
fatty acids
Tall Oil
Swedish: tallolja
TALL OIL IN 1988: A Rubber Additive Imparting Better Properties To Tires…Downstream IPC Shifting Identifies Changes In Use
???
Particle Board
Rubber Additive
TALL OIL: Finding other uses was relatively slow
Took 14 years
Took 10
years???
Particle Board
Rubber Additive
CLA LEAPS INTO FOOD TECHNOLOGY
Unilever And Its Spin-off
Loders Croklaan
Employ CLA In Food
NEXT EVOLUTION OF CLA
= Health Use
= Diabetes
USES FOR CLA: OVERVIEW
Animal Weight
Improvement
Animal NutritionFodder
Improvement
Cosmetics &
Cosmeceuticals
Rubber
Food
Improvement
Incorporating
CLA in Feed
Health Uses
Vehicle for
Actives
Extraction or
Synthetic
Processes to
Make CLA
Dairy & Meat
Quality
Improvement
SUMMARY
• Different sources and measures of time can give
different views of the world
• Adjustment for context may be necessary
• Moving time windows can help smooth short term blips
• Grouping into time slices can help show maturity and
direction of growth of a technology
• Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of
future performance
• Citations can be useful to track technology evolution
over time
36
