ii - bi.go.id komoditas pangan... · 15 model/variabel basic extension (fixed effect) dumi (model)...

4

≤

8

........................................................................................... (2)

.........

(3)

12

0

.05

.1.1

5.2

.25

2002q3 2004q3 2006q3 2008q3 2010q3date

CV_Beras Fitted values

.02

.04

.06

.08

.1.1

2

2002q3 2004q3 2006q3 2008q3 2010q3date

CVGulaPasir Fitted values

.1.2

.3.4

.5

2002q3 2004q3 2006q3 2008q3 2010q3date

CVCabaiMerah Fitted values

.1.2

.3.4

2002q3 2004q3 2006q3 2008q3 2010q3date

CVBawangMerah Fitted values

14

MODEL/Variabel Basic Extension

(Fixed Effect)

Jarak ke Jarkon 0.298 *** 0.273 ***

(0.071) (0.074)

Infrastruktur (Jalan) -0.007 ** -0.008 **

(0.004) (0.004)

Infrastruktur (Pelabuhan) 0.034 *** 0.030 ***

(0.01) (0.011)

Pendapatan Perkapita Riil 0.266 ***

(0.064)

Stok -0.006

(0.011)

PDRB Deflator (Harga

Masukan)

1.350 **

(0.576)

Konstanta -3.504 *** -8.860 ***

(0.83) (1.687)

15


(Fixed Effect)

Dumi (Model) Regional √ √

Dumi (Model) Waktu √ √

Observasi 900 875

R–squared 0.608 0.619

16


(Fixed Effects)

Jarak ke Jarkon 0.229 ** 0.385 ***

(0.107) (0.120)

Infrastruktur (Jalan) -0.008 -0.328 **

(0.007) (0.138)

Infrastruktur (Pelabuhan) -0.017 ** 0.000

(0.009) (0.000)

Pendapatan Perkapita Riil 0.079

(0.052)

Stok 0.061 ***

(0.018)


Masukan)

0.531

(1.424)

Produktivitas -0.261 ***

(0.066)

Konstanta -2.149 * -1.084

(1.224) (1.902)

Dumi (Model) Regional √ –

Dumi (Model)Waktu √ √

Observasi 900 318

R–squared 0.603 0.242

17


Random Effect

Jarak ke Jarkon -0.008 0.132

(0.017) (0.107)

Infrastruktur (Jalan) -0.010 -0.187 ***

(0.012) (0.049)

Infrastruktur (Pelabuhan) 0.000 0.012

(0.000) (0.016)


(0.068)

Stok -0.028 *

(0.016)


Masukan)

0.055

(0.035)

Produktivitas -0.202

(0.318)

Konstanta 0.261 * 1.412 *

(0.036) (0.848)

Dumi (Model) Regional – –

Dumi (Model) Waktu – –

Observasi 936 591

R–squared 0.020 0.069

18


Random Effects

Jarak ke Jarkon 0.023 0.023

(0.062) (0.063)

Infrastruktur (Jalan) -0.033 -0.033

(0.063) (0.064)

Infrastruktur (Pelabuhan) 0.000 0.000

(0.084) (0.000)

Pendapatan Perkapita Riil -0.491

(0.310)


Masukan)

1.141

(1.658)

Produktivitas -0.022

(0.125)

Konstanta 3.521 *** 9.370 **

(0.352) (3.848)

Dumi (Model) Regional – –

Dumi (Model) Waktu – –

Observasi 935 935

R–squared 0.0056 0.214

19


(Fixed Effects)

Jarak ke Jarkon 0.301 *** 0.287 ***

(0.065) (0.063)

Infrastruktur (Jalan) -0.267 *** -0.255 ***

(0.065) (0.063)

Infrastruktur (Pelabuhan) 0.018 -0.000 **

(0.08) (-0.000)

Pendapatan Perkapita Riil -0.388

(0.653)


Input)

3.095

(4.103)

Produktivitas 0.072

(0.110)

Konstanta 1.786 *** 6.736

(0.43) (11.628)

Dumi (Model) Regional √ √

Dumi (Model) Waktu √ √

Observasi 898 934

R–squared 0.749 0.747

26

http://www.worldbank.org/id/trade

27

Variabel Mean SD Min Max

Jarak ke Jarkon–5 kota

referensi 0.914 2.155 0.030 11.770

Infrastruktur (Jalan)–5

kota besar 0.547 1.361 0.006 11.563

Jarak ke Jarkon—Jakarta

1.607 2.112 0.127 11.771

Infrastruktur (Jalan) –

Jakarta 1.042 2.092 0.076 11.653

Infrastruktur (Pelabuhan) 2164.290 3198.688 0.000 21149.100

Pendapatan Perkapita Riil 14.323 0.636 13.194 16.241

PDRB Deflator (harga

input) 1.058 0.029 1.003 1.156


Harga beras relatif daerah

i dengan 5 kota referensi 0.136 0.141 0.000 0.949

Stok 0.384 1.195 -4.816 1.769

Produktivitas lahan 1.306 0.304 0.175 1.940


Harga minyak goreng

relatif daerah i dengan 5

kota referensi 0.244 0.227 0.000 1.106

Stok 1.793 1.647 -4.198 4.162



Harga gula pasir relatif

daerah i dengan 5 kota

referensi 0.236 0.172 0.000 0.819

Stok -0.474 1.192 -2.520 2.444



Harga cabai merah relatif

daerah i dengan daerah

Jakarta 3.560 1.964 -4.606 6.309


28


Harga bawang merah

relatif daerah i dengan

daerah Jakarta 3.135 1.909 -4.606 6.312

Produktivitas 1.467 0.897 0.000 3.899

29

MODEL / Variabel POOLED Fixed Effects Fixed Effects Fixed Effects First

Differencing (S) (T) (ST)

Jarak ke Sentra Ekonomi (Jarkon)

0.027 *** 0.246 *** 0.018 *** 0.273 *** -0.143

(0.004) (0.062) (0.004) (0.074) (0.180)

Infrastruktur (Jalan) -0.010 -0.007 -0.008 * -0.008 ** 0.001

(0.004) (0.003) (0.004) (0.004) (0.002)

Pendapatan Perkapita Riil

-0.052 *** 0.317 *** -0.053 *** 0.266 *** 0.093

(0.007) (0.044) (0.007) (0.064) (0.145)

Infrastruktur (Pelabuhan)

0.031 *** 0.023 ** 0.027 *** 0.030 *** -0.001

(0.004) (0.011) (0.004) (0.011) (0.009)

Stok 0.047 *** -0.012 *** 0.034 *** -0.006 -0.005

(0.005) (0.012) (0.006) (0.011) (0.017)

PDRB Deflator (Harga input)

1.853 *** 1.667 *** -0.658 * 1.350 ** -0.084

(0.165) (0.147) (0.353) (0.576) (1.080)

Konstanta -1.339 *** -9.742 *** 1.449 *** -8.860 *** 0.007 *

(0.185) (1.158) (0.392) (1.687) (0.004)

Dumi Regional – √ – √ –

Dumi Waktu – – √ √ –

Observasi 875 875 875 875 850

R–squared 0.242 0.536 0.396 0.619 0.001

30

MODEL / Variabel POOLED Fixed Effects Fixed Effects

Fixed Effects First


Jarak ke Jarkon 0.316 *** 0.034 0.385 *** 0.195 -2.973

(0.112) (1.053) (0.120) (1.073) (5.677)

Infrastruktur (Jalan) -0.216 * 0.016 -0.328 ** -0.030 0.019

(0.128) (0.105) (0.138) (0.109) (0.117)


0.077 * 0.230 0.079 -0.120 -1.905 *

(0.046) (0.147) (0.052) (0.331) (1.156)


0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)

Stok 0.058 *** -0.045 0.061 *** -0.061 * -0.052

(0.018) (0.032) (0.018) (0.035) (0.091)

Produktivitas -0.249 *** 0.004 -0.261 *** 0.030 -0.060

(0.063) (0.049) (0.066) (0.058) (0.056)


0.538 -0.756 0.531 -3.512 ** 0.593

(0.430) (0.757) (1.424) (1.748) (6.390)

Konstanta -1.046 -2.353 -1.084 5.177 0.020

(0.652) (1.858) (1.902) (6.448) (0.021)


Dumi Waktu – – √ √ –

Observasi 318 318 318 318 308

R–squared 0.183 0.574 0.242 0.635 0.020

MODEL / Variabel Random Effect

Jarkon 0.138

(0.107)

Infrastruktur (Jalan) -0.187 ***

(0.049)


(0.068)

Infrastruktur (Pelabuhan) 0.012

(0.016)

Stok -0.028 *

(0.016)

Produktivitas 0.055

(0.035)

31

MODEL / Variabel Random Effect

PDRB Deflator (Harga input) -0.202

(0.318)

Konstanta 1.412 *

(0.848)

Dumi Regional –

Dumi Waktu –

Observasi 591

R–squared 0.000



Jarkon 0.250 ** 0.265 *** 0.263 ** 0.287 *** 0.206 **

(0.109) (0.062) (0.113) (0.063) (0.088)

Infrastruktur (Jalan) -0.213 * -0.226 *** -0.232 ** -0.255 *** -0.170 *

(0.109) (0.061) (0.114) (0.063) (0.089)


0.000 *** -0.000 ** 0.000 *** -0.000 ** -0.000

(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (-0.000) (0.000)

32




-1.410 *** -0.292 -1.401 *** -0.388 0.337

(0.157) (0.414) (0.157) (0.653) (2.739)


9.452 6.363 17.297 3.095 21.510

(2.075) (1.834) (4.563) (4.103) (19.450)

Produktivitas -0.140 0.097 -0.142 0.072 -0.146

(0.070) (0.107) (0.070) (0.110) (0.183)

Konstanta 13.180 *** 1.841 5.114 6.736 -0.532

(2.305) (4.418) (4.469) (11.628) (0.645


Dumi waktu – – √ √ –

Observasi 934 934 934 934 906

R–squared 0.1755 0.736 0.193 0.747 0.017

ii - bi.go.id komoditas pangan... · 15 model/variabel basic extension (fixed effect) dumi (model)...

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