OSO SECURITIES

MEMBER OF INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

OSO Weekly 04-08 Januari 2016

JCI 102.33 2.28%

4,593.01

Previous 4,490.68 Lowest 4,557.36 Highest 4,593.01 Val IDR bn 16,790.60 Vol (bn) 26.83 Mkt Cap IDR tr 4,872.70 Nett Foreign 1W 393.60 NetForgYTDRbn (21,664.26) Return YTD (12.13) Month to date (%) 3.30

Indices

Last WoW% YTD% Government Bonds Yield% WoW% YTD%

Americas

1 Year 7.90 1.33 13.83 Dow Jones United States 17,425.03 (1.01) - 2 Year 8.56 0.12 14.30 S&P 500 United States 2,043.94 (0.99) - 3 Year 8.82 (0.29) 16.76 Nasdaq United States 5,007.41 (0.76) - 4 Year 8.87 0.96 15.71 EIDO United States 20.87 (1.32) - 5 Year 8.84 0.84 14.71 EMEA

6 Year 8.92 0.67 15.04

Euro Stoxx Euro Area 3,267.52 (0.58) - 7 Year 8.93 0.59 14.72 FTSE 100 United Kingdom 6,242.32 2.62 - 8 Year 8.97 0.92 15.04 CAC 40 France 4,637.06 (0.80) - 9 Year 8.87 1.05 13.48 DAX Germany 10,743.01 2.34 - 10 Year 8.77 0.42 12.46 Asia Pacific

15 Year 8.98 1.00 10.15

Nikkei Japanese 19,033.71 0.78 9.07 20 Year 8.98 0.91 8.31 Shanghai China 3,572.88 (1.74) 10.46 30 Year 9.30 (0.86) 7.68

TWSE Taiwan 8,279.99 (0.43) (11.04)

SET Thailand 1,289.80 1.20 (13.88) Commodities Last WoW% Ytd%

KOSPI Korea 1,961.31 (1.57) 2.39 Oil (USD/bbl) 37.51 (0.13) 1.27 PCOMP Philippine 6,952.08 1.24 (3.85) Gold (USD tr.oz) 1,064.36 (1.12) 0.28 KLSE Malaysia 1,693.14 3.04 (3.87) Silver (USD tr.oz) 13.91 (3.19) 0.78 ST - Times Singapore 2,885.51 1.14 (14.25) Nickel (USD/mtrc ton) 8,820.00 1.73 - Sensex India 25,967.16 1.50 (5.57) Tin (USD/mtrc ton) 14,555.00 (0.44) - Hangseng Hong Kong 21,882.15 0.24 (7.30) Copper (USD/mtrc ton) 4,705.00 (0.32) -

CPO (MYR/ton) 2,398.00 4.53 -

Sektoral

Last WoW% YTD% Coal (USD/ton) * 61.80 (0.96) (1.98)

AGRICULTURE

1,719.26 8.97 (26.87) Natural Gas 2.33 14.88 (0.26) MINING

811.07 1.08 (40.75) Corn 358.75 (1.58) -

MISC INDUSTRY

1,057.28 (2.70) (19.11) Soybean 264.30 (1.75) 0.00 BASIC INDUSTRY

407.84 1.03 (24.98) Coffe 126.70 5.85 0.00

CONSUMER GOODS

2,064.91 2.73 (5.19) Cotton 63.28 (0.60) 0.00 PROPERTY

490.93 3.05 (6.47) Sugar 15.24 1.20 0.00

INFRASTRUKTUR

981.33 0.73 (15.42) Wheat 470.00 0.53 - FINANCE

687.04 2.38 (6.10) Cocoa 3,211.00 0.03 -

MANUFAKTURE

1,151.68 1.45 (13.75)

TRADE

849.53 4.73 (3.31) Top Gainer Last WoW% Ytd%

LQ 45

792.03 2.14 (11.86) BMTR IJ Equity 1,100 21.55 (22.81) SRI-KEHATI

265.16 1.80 (11.48) SSMS IJ Equity 1,950 13.37 17.12

SMRA IJ Equity 1,650 10.00 8.55

Currency

Last WoW% YTD% MPPA IJ Equity 1,825 9.94 (40.16)

IDR / USD

13,788 (1.00) (10.15) UNTR IJ Equity 16,950 9.00 (2.31)

IDR / AUD

10,052 (1.74) 0.97

IDR / EUR

15,081 (1.11) (0.12) Top Loser Last WoW% Ytd%

IDR / SGD

9,755 (0.42) (3.89) LPKR IJ Equity 1,035.00 (5.91) 1.47 IDR / JPY

114 (1.45) (9.48) EXCL IJ Equity 3,650.00 (5.68) (24.97)

IDR / GBP

20,434 (0.78) (5.61) CPIN IJ Equity 2,600.00 (5.63) (31.22)

ASII IJ Equity 6,000.00 (4.00) (19.19)

Global Macro Eco

CB Rate (%) CPI YoY (%) GDP YoY (%) PTBA IJ Equity 4,525.00 (1.63) (63.80)

United States

0.50 0.50 2.10

Euro Area

0.05 0.20 1.60 Top Volume Last Volume(Mn) YTD%

United Kingdom

0.50 0.10 2.10 ANTM IJ Equity 314 130.45 (64.90) Japan

0.10 0.30 1.60 SSMS IJ Equity 1,950 123.15 17.12

China

4.35 1.50 6.90 PWON IJ Equity 496 68.13 (3.69) Singapore

0.08 (0.80) 2.00 WSKT IJ Equity 1,670 61.63 16.55

KLBF IJ Equity 1,320 45.58 (27.87)

Domestic Macro Eco

Last WoW% YTD%

Jibor

8.26 26.86 39.77 Top Value Last Value(Bn) YTD%

InflasiYoY

4.89

BBRI IJ Equity 11,425 302.40 (1.93) InflasiMoM

0.21

ASII IJ Equity 6,000 255.80 (19.19)

BI Rate

7.50

BMRI IJ Equity 9,250 241.40 (14.15) GDP Growth YoY

4.73

SSMS IJ Equity 1,950 240.14 17.12

Foreign Reserve (Bn)

100.24

BBCA IJ Equity 13,300 193.82 1.33

Sources : Bloomberg

OSO SECURITIES

MEMBER OF INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

OSO Weekly 04-08 Januari 2016

Indonesia Market Review Pada pekan terakhir tahun 2015, IHSG mencatatkan kinerja positif dengan kenaikan sebesar 2.28% ke level 4,593.01. Namun diakumulasikan sejak awal tahun 2015 IHSG mencatatkan koreksi sebesar 12.13%. Ketidakpastian global, membuat mayoritas pelaku pasar asing lebih memilih untuk melakukan aksi jual, tercatat asing mencatatkan net sell senilai Rp 21,6 triliun selama tahun 2015. Sementara itu, dari dalam negeri sendiri, pencapaian target pertumbuhan ekonomi pemerintah nampaknya tidak tecapai, hingga kuartal III 2015 pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia hanya mencapai 4.73% atau lebih rendah dari target pemerintah yang mencapai 5.2%. Perlambatan ekonomi salah satunya disebabkan oleh lambatnya investasi swasta dan pemerintah. Tercatat sepanjang tahun 2015, pendapatan negara yang masuk dalam APBN hanya tercapai Rp 1,491 triliun atau 84.7% dari target, dengan penyerapan sebesar Rp 1,810 triliun atau 91.2%. Sementara itu, pada perdagangan tiga hari menjelang tutup akhir tahun, mayoritas indeks di bursa Asia ditutup menguat. Penguatan dipimpin oleh bursa Malaysia dan Filipina yang masing-masing mencatatkan kenaikan sebesar 3.04% dan 1.24%. Namun demikian, bursa China ditutup melemah cukup signfikan dengan penurunan sebesar 1.74% ke level 3,572.88. Pelemahan tersebut inline dengan lemahnya data indeks manufacturing China yang masih dibawah 50. Sekedar informasi saja, indeks manufacturing China yang dirilis hari ini tercatat sebesar 48.2 atau lebih rendah dari periode sebelumnya 48.6.

Global Market Review Sementara itu, dari bursa AS selama seminggu kemarin bergerak flat dengan kecenderungan melemah ditengah perdagangan yang relatif sepi. Rilisnya data ekonomi AS yang positif seperti CB Consumer Confidence AS bulan Desember yang naik dari 92.6 menjadi 96.5 ternyata tidak mampu mengangkat pergerakan saham di bursa AS. Indeks dow Jones ditutup terkoreksi 1.01% ke level 17,425.03, S&P 500 melemah 0.99% ke level 2,043.94 dan Nasdaq turun 0.76% ke level 5,007.41. Dari bursa Eropa, pergerakan indeks utama selama sepekan kemarin bergerak mixed dengan cenderungan melamah. Indeks Eurostoxx melemah 0.58% ke level 3,267.52, indeks FTSE 100 menguat cukup signifikan sebesar 2.62% ke level 6,242.32, CAC 40 terkoreksi sebesar 0.80% ke level 4,637.06 dan DAX melambung 2.34% ke level 10,743.01. Mixednya pergerakan bursa Eropa selama sepekan kemarin masih dipengaruhi oleh kekhawatiran pelaku pasar akan turunnya komoditas minyak ditengah perlambatan ekonomi China.

Commodity Market Mayoritas harga komoditas sepanjang perdagangan kemarin ditutup melemah. Pelemahan tertinggi dipimpin oleh komoditas silver dan Soybean yang masing-masing mengalami penurunan sebesar 3.19% dan 1.75%. Sementara itu pergerakan komoditas CPO bergerak naik cukup signifikan sebesar 4.53% ke level 2,398.00. Tahun ini diperkirakan komoditas CPO akan bergerak cukup terang, seiring dengan adanya badai El Nino yang akan berlanjut hingga Maret 2016, dan program biodiesel yang akan berdampak pada turunnya produksi CPO Indonesia dan Malaysia. Selain itu program biodiesel pemerintah Indonesia yang mewajibkan campuran 15% bahan bakar nabati minyak kelapa sawit pada bahan bakar minyak, membuat permintaan pertamina akan CPO mengalami peningkatan.

Market Outlook Kami perkirakan seminggu ini IHSG masih akan bergerak menguat. Beberapa data ekonomi yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini akan menjadi penggerak market, seperti : manufacturing china bulan Desember, inflasi Indonesia bulan Desember, indeks kepercayaan konsumen Indonesia bulan Desember, Manufacturing AS bulan Desember, Construction Spending As bulan November, Unemployment Change Jerman bulan Desember, Construction PMI Inggris bulan Desember, inflasi inti Eropa bulan Desember, indeks general services OMI China bulan Desember, Balance of Trade AS bulan November, ISM Non Manufacturing AS bulan Januari , retail Sales dan Pengangguran kawasan Zona eropa, serta neraca perdagangan China bulan Desember. Secara teknikal, indikator stochastic oscilator sudah bullish namun sudah berada di area oversold, indikator RSI dan MFI mulai flat. Sementara MACD histogram masih positif. Kami perkirakan hari ini IHSG akan bergerak pada kisaran 4520-4645.

OSO SECURITIES

MEMBER OF INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

OSO Weekly 04-08 Januari 2016

Technical Analysis

Saham SMGR terlihat bergerak dalam tren menguat sejak beberapa bulan kemarin di tahun 2015. Pada perdagangan akhir pekan kemarin saham ini ditutup bullish diikuti dengan buying volume yang juga meningkat cukup signifikan. Indicator MFI dan RSI masih terlihat mengalami sedikit penguatan. Namun, Stochastic Oscillator berpotensi deadcross.

Recommendation : Buy On Weakness Target Price : 11855 Support : 11060 Stop loss : 10945

Lebih dari sepekan saham KLBF bergerak dalam fase uptrend setelah sebelumnya bergerak dalam fase downtrend. Saham ini ditutup bullish dengan candle membentuk Bullish Belt Hold dimana harga saham masih berada di area middle Bollinger band. Mayoritas indicator menunjukkan pergerakan positif dimana MACD histogram, MFI, RSI dan Stochastic Oscillator kompak bergerak naik. Recommendation : Buy On Weakness Target Price : 1375 Support : 1280 Stop loss : 1265

SMGR

KLBF

OSO SECURITIES

MEMBER OF INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

OSO Weekly 04-08 Januari 2016

Selama sepekan terakhir saham BMRI bergerak dalam minor uptrend dimana pada perdagangan hari terakhir saham ini masih mampu mencatatkan penguatan didukung adanya aksi beli yang meningkat. Indicator MACD Histogram mengalami sedikit penguatan, MFI dan Stochastic Oscillator juga masih menunjukkan pergerakan positif meskipun RSI mengalami pelemahan. Recommendation : Buy Target Price : 9620 Support : 8975 Stop loss : 8880

Pola uptrend terbentuk pada saham BBRI sejak beberapa pekan lalu. Pada perdagangan akhir pekan kemarin saham ini ditutup turun 25 poin meski buying volume terlihat naik signifikan. Indicator MACD Histogram masih flat, MFI naik, Momentum dan Stochastic Oscillator juga terlihat masih bergerak positif. Recommendation : Buy Target Price : 11885 Support : 11085 Stop loss : 10970

BMRI

BBRI

OSO SECURITIES

MEMBER OF INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

OSO Weekly 04-08 Januari 2016

Economic Calendar

Date Agenda Country Actual Prior Consensus

4-Jan-15 US Fed Fischer Speech USD

4-Jan-15 SG GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q4 SGD 1.9% 1.7%

4-Jan-15 SG GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv Q4 SGD 1.9% 1.3%

4-Jan-15 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI DEC CNY 48.6 49

4-Jan-15 Indonesia Inflation Rate YoY DEC IDR 4.89% 3%

4-Jan-15 Indonesia Consumer Confidence DEC IDR 8.1%

4-Jan-15 Italy Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI DEC ITL 54.9

4-Jan-15 Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI Final DEC EUR 52.9 53

4-Jan-15 Euro Area Markit Manufacturing PMI Final DEC EUR 52.8 53.1

4-Jan-15 UK Mortgage Lending NOV GBP £3.6B

4-Jan-15 UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI DEC GBP 52.7

4-Jan-15 UK Mortgage Approvals NOV GBP 69.63K 70.4K

4-Jan-15 Germany Inflation Rate YoY Prel DEC EUR 0.4% 0.6%

4-Jan-15 US Markit Manufacturing PMI Final DEC USD 52.8 51.3

4-Jan-15 US ISM Manufacturing PMI DEC USD 48.6 49

4-Jan-15 US ISM Manufacturing Employment DEC USD 51.3 49.7

4-Jan-15 US ISM Manufacturing New Orders DEC USD 48.9

4-Jan-15 US ISM Manufacturing Prices DEC USD 35.5 35.2

4-Jan-15 US Construction Spending MoM NOV USD 1% 0.5%

5-Jan-15 Germany Unemployment Change DEC EUR -13K  -6K

5-Jan-15 Germany Unemployment Rate Harmonised NOV EUR 4.5%

5-Jan-15 Germany Unemployment Rate DEC EUR 6.3%

5-Jan-15 UK Construction PMI DEC GBP 55.3

5-Jan-15 Euro Area Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash DEC EUR 0.9%

5-Jan-15 Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash DEC EUR 0.2% 0.3%

5-Jan-15 Italy Inflation Rate YoY Prel DEC ITL 0.1%

5-Jan-15 US ISM New York Index DEC USD 60.7

6-Jan-15 US Total Vehicle Sales DEC USD 18.19M 18.1M

6-Jan-15 China Caixin General Services PMI DEC CNY 51.2

6-Jan-15 Franch Consumer Confidence DEC EUR 96

6-Jan-15 Italy Markit/ADACI Services PMI DEC ITL 53.4

6-Jan-15 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI DEC GBP 55.9

6-Jan-15 US ADP Employment Change DEC USD 217K 190K

6-Jan-15 US Balance of Trade NOV USD $-43.89B  $-44B

6-Jan-15 US Exports NOV USD $184.1 

6-Jan-15 US Imports NOV USD $228.0

6-Jan-15 US Markit Composite PMI Final DEC 2015 USD 55.9 53.5

6-Jan-15 US Markit Services PMI Final DEC USD 56.1 53.7

6-Jan-15 US Factory Orders MoM NOV USD 1.5% -0.2%

6-Jan-15 US Factory Orders Ex Transportation NOV USD 0.2%

6-Jan-15 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI JAN USD 55.9 56

6-Jan-15 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity DEC USD 58.2

6-Jan-15 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment DEC USD 55

6-Jan-15 US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders DEC USD 57.5

6-Jan-15 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices DEC USD 50.3

6-Jan-15 US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 1/JAN USD

6-Jan-15 US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 1/JAN USD

7-Jan-15 US FOMC Minutes USD

7-Jan-15 Malaysia Balance of Trade NOV\ MYR12.2B 

7-Jan-15 Germany Factory Orders MoM NOV EUR 1.8%

7-Jan-15 Germany Retail Sales MoM NOV EUR -0.4%  0.5%

7-Jan-15 Germany Retail Sales YoY NOV EUR 2.1% 2.1%

7-Jan-15 Italy Unemployment Rate NOV ITL 11.5%

7-Jan-15 Euro Area Business Confidence DEC EUR 0.36

7-Jan-15 Euro Area Consumer Confidence Final DEC EUR -5.9 

7-Jan-15 Euro Area Economic Sentiment DEC EUR 106.1

7-Jan-15 Euro Area Industrial Sentiment DEC EUR -3.2 

7-Jan-15 Euro Area Retail Sales MoM NOV EUR -0.1% 

7-Jan-15 Euro Area Retail Sales YoY NOV EUR 2.5%

7-Jan-15 Euro Area Unemployment Rate NOV EUR 10.7% 10.7%

7-Jan-15 US Challenger Job Cuts DEC USD 31K

7-Jan-15 US Initial Jobless Claims 2/JAN USD

7-Jan-15 US EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change 1/JAN USD -58Bcf 

8-Jan-15 China Balance of Trade DEC CNY $54.1B 

8-Jan-15 China Exports YoY DEC CNY -6.8% 

8-Jan-15 China Imports YoY DEC CNY -8.7% 

8-Jan-15 Japan Coincident Index Prel NOV JPY 113.3

8-Jan-15 Japan Leading Economic Index Prel NOV JPY 104.2

8-Jan-15 Germany Balance of Trade NOV EUR €22.5B 

8-Jan-15 Germany Industrial Production YoY NOV EUR 0.0%

8-Jan-15 Germany Industrial Production MoM NOV EUR 0.2% 0.5%

8-Jan-15 Franch Balance of Trade NOV EUR €-4.58B

8-Jan-15 Franch Industrial Production MoM NOV EUR 0.5%

8-Jan-15 UK Balance of Trade NOV GBP £-4.14B

8-Jan-15 US Average Hourly Earnings MoM DEC USD 0.2%

8-Jan-15 US Average Weekly Hours DEC USD 34.5

8-Jan-15 US Participation Rate DEC USD 62.5%

8-Jan-15 US Non Farm Payrolls DEC USD 211K 200K

8-Jan-15 US Nonfarm Payrolls Private DEC USD 197K 184K

8-Jan-15 US Unemployment Rate DEC USD 5% 5%

8-Jan-15 US Wholesale Inventories MoM NOV USD -0.1%  -0.1% 

Sumber :Trading economic & Bloomberg

OSO SECURITIES

MEMBER OF INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

OSO Weekly 04-08 Januari 2016

DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared by PT OSO Securities on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstance.is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of PT. OSO Securities. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of PT. OSO Securities, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action , suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither PT. OSO Securities, its affiliated companiesor their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by PT. OSO Securities or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards tothe specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice.

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Supriyadi (supriyadi@oso-securities.com) Head of Research +62 21 2991 5300

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Riska Afriani

(r.afriani@oso-securities.com) Research Analyst +62 21 2991 5300

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