ihe idc.ppt
TRANSCRIPT
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Hydroinformatics in Transition, UNESCO-IHE, May 2008
Whol Systm Modllin!- th "#t#r of Hydroinformatics
$rofssor Ian Cl#c%iWatr and En&ironmntal Mana!mnt 'sarch Cntr (WEM'C)
Uni&rsity of *ristol
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+ nral Scnario
P
E
Qs
Ss
Sg
Qg
Ig
CoupledOcean-Atmosphere
Models
Mesoscale
Models
SVATs
Hydrologic/Routing
Models
Water Resources
Applications
Sorooshian, HEPEX,
2004
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-SundayTimesmagazin
e
11.3.2
007
If th rnlandic sht r tomlt it o#ld
rais !lo.al sa
l&ls .y aro#nd/m1 Mt Oc
(2003)
The othertype of
ooding
Climate Change Impat
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!"SC#ST$E %$#SH %$""&
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!"SC#ST$E %$#SH %$""&
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Domain 1
Domain 2
Domain 4
Domain 3
Con4!#ration for NW$
MM5 V3 comes withmature code to deal withmesoscale dynamics
Configured to run onPC/LINUX cluster toroduce 5!m weatherrediction o"er the U!domain# $higher resolution
ossi%le& Potential to conductensem%le run withowerful 'PC facility
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Why rid-
matchin!5 Pro(ectionmismatch for twosystems
)reas co"eredare not the same
Nimrod *orecast
Nimrod )ctuals
MM5 *orecast
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Changes in Height of '0 yearStorm S(rge
Sa l&ls st to ris.y 60 cm this cnt#ry
Chan!s in storms#r!s also im7ortant,
&ry d7ndnt onchan! in circ#lation7attrn
Chan!s incirc#lation ar &ry#ncrtain
Mor dtaild or%r#ird to 7ro&idrlia.l information
Climate Change Impat
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Crown
S#r! Ensm.l Man(conto#rs) and S7rad
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Thames Tidal !arrier
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11/32Th Storm from Hll9 : 6000yr
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54x54km 18x18km
6x6k
m
2x2km
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Enhaned Ensem)le*ater $e+els at
Sheerness
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Mike 11 simulation close to high tide at the barrier
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In(ndation ap for E-tremeE+ent
Source: !"!C Co-#ocation $or%shop 200&
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In(ndation for E-treme E+ent
Source: !"!C Co-#ocation $or%shop 200&
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17/32*eather .adar #nimation 20 /(ly
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%loods in $o1er Se+ern/(ly 20, 200
Photo
byDavidHughes
http://
nes!b
bc!co!u
k23!"!#
"
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T%s.#ryS#nday 22 ;#ly 200/htt7
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*alham S1ithing
Station, nearlo(ester, ser+ing
'00,000 people3
'icture source: http:((www.mai#onsunday.co.u%
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'icture source: http:((www.mai#onsunday.co.u%
Ensm.l $rdictionof In#ndation 'is%and Uncrtainty +risin!
from Sco#r(E$I'US)
NE'C "'EE $'O'+M
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$ur% &one
Models
Meteorological
Models
Tide, S(rge *a+eodelling %rame1or5
'ontinental Model
()M[Grid size ~ 12km]
*egional Model
P+,'+M$[Grid size ~1.8km]
'oastal &one Model
'+)$-2D[Grid size ~250m]
-ide. $urge
and (ave
Models
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Port H( H)- 2#1/
rt +D0
1/3 surge
at local H(
-otal
+D0
$heerness 13!##
3!41 1! /!2"
(oolich 14!##
3!1 1! /!""
Height o% -hames arrier is ! m a+D0
Co(ld a largers(rge o(r at
high 1ater6
Defra/EA, TE2100 Phase 2
E>trm S#r!s in th So#thrnNorth Sa< Th E&nts of 6?@A
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7The reatStorm8
9:; '
.ainfall
and
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+, -uly +,,. /torm 0 1, MM5 ensem%les 2 control
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$oal P"$ models for the !ristol
Channel and Se+ern Est(ary
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*itho(t !arrage *ith !arrage
Tidal C#rrnt Modllin!
ean %lood < Spring TideSource: a#coner) *!C) Cardi+
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C
OAST2D
Coastal =one odel >
C"#ST2&
Sur, one"ode#s
ave re%lection
(aves
'urrents
-ransport
Module
ave di%%raction
ave re%raction
bottom di%%usion
ave breaking
Hydrodynamic
Module
(P) option
Morphological
Module
5(P option
!egiona#"ode#s
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uic%Time/ and adecompressor
are needed to see this picture.
S
ource:!eee)
'#ymouth
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uic%Time/ and adecompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Source: !eee) '#ymouth
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S* %loods"to)er 2000
I Hope
?o(En@oyedthe Tal5