ifpri- food demand and supply in bihar, p kumar, ifpri

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Food demand and supply in Bihar: Is the existing growth sufficient? Praduman Kumar Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi [email protected] Consultation Workshop A Food Secure Bihar: Challenges and Way Forward August 06, 2014 ANSISS, Patna, Bihar

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A N Sinha Institute of Social Science (ANSISS), and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) organized a one day consulation on ‘A Food Secure Bihar: Challenges and Way Forward’ on August 06, 2014 at ANSISS, Patna, Bihar. You are aware that National Food Security Act (NFSA) has been enacted with a view to ensure food security in India and Bihar is one of the state where ensuring food security is a major challenge. A better understanding of NFSA in the context of Bihar will be helpful for effective implementation of the NFSA. The main objective of the policy consultative workshop is to deliberate on the options and strategies for making NFSA efficient and effective in Bihar

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Page 1: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Food demand and supply in

Bihar: Is the existing growth

sufficient?

Praduman Kumar

Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi

[email protected]

Consultation Workshop

A Food Secure Bihar: Challenges and Way Forward

August 06, 2014

ANSISS, Patna, Bihar

Page 2: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Challenges towards food secure Bihar

Extremely high and growing population pressure

High dependence on agriculture

Predominance of small and marginal farmers and increasing land fragmentation

Lacking in technology, information, knowledge and innovation

Page 3: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Bihar rich in natural resources, yet food

deficit state due to low productivity and

huge yield gap.

Numerous biotic and abiotic constraints.

Flood and drought prone constraints.

Weak institutions

Poor infrastructure: Poor road network,

thin markets, fragile electricity sector and

inefficient irrigation system.

Page 4: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Outlines Long-term changes in dietary pattern

Food demand

Food production (Supply)

Self-sufficiency

Way forward food secure Bihar

Page 5: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Data

House hold consumption expenditure data

collected by National Sample Survey

Organization (NSSO)

NSS Rounds: • 38 (1983)

• 43 (1987-88)

• 50 (1993-94)

• 55 (1999-2000)

• 61 (2004)

• 68 (2011)

Page 6: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Long term changes on food consumption in Bihar

(kg/cap/year)

Food BPL APL

1993 2011 %

change

1993 2011 %

change

Rice 70.9 67.9 -4.2 87.8 78.3 -10.8

Wheat 69.3 61.8 -10.8 87.0 74.5 -14.4

Cereals 150.4 130.8 -13.0 179.7 154.2 -14.2

Pulses 5.8 7.4 27.1 12.6 10.7 -14.8

Edible-oils 2.9 4.6 55.8 5.6 7.3 31.6

Vegetables 62.5 55.3 -11.5 95.6 76.6 -19.9

Fruits 2.0 2.8 42.1 7.1 8.6 20.6

Sugar 3.4 3.9 16.0 7.8 7.4 -5.8

Milk 16.0 25.3 58.0 67.7 69.8 3.0

Meat, fish,

eggs

1.9 2.2 19.1 3.5 4.4 25.6

Page 7: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Long term changes on food consumption in Bihar

(kg/cap/year)

Food Rural Urban

1993 2011 % change 1993 2011 % change

Rice 80.0 77.2 - 3.5 76.1 70.6 - 7.1

Wheat 77.7 71.0 - 8.6 79.8 70.7 -11.4

Cereals 166.5 149.8 -10.1 157.1 141.8 - 9.8

Pulses 8.9 9.8 9.7 10.6 10.0 - 5.9

Ed. Oil 4.1 6.4 58.3 5.1 6.9 34.8

Vegetables 78.4 70.3 -10.4 81.3 71.7 -11.8

Fruits 4.1 6.8 68.4 6.8 7.4 9.4

Sugar 5.2 6.3 21.2 7.4 6.7 - 9.5

Milk 40.1 57.9 44.3 49.0 55.6 13.5

Meat, fish,

eggs

2.6 3.7 46.3 3.2 3.9 21.1

Page 8: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Methodology: Food demand

Projections

The Food Characteristic Demand System (FCDS)

model.

This model is based on demand for energy,

variety and tastes for foods for computing

demand elasticity.

These demand elasticities are used in projecting

the consumption per household for various food

items.

Page 9: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Assumptions GNDP will grow at the rate of 7.5% for rural and 5.8%

for urban households

The average annual per capita consumption ending 2004

is taken as the base consumption.

Population in million

Year Rural Urban

2011 87.4 10.2

2016 91.9 10.8

2021 96.9 11.5

2026 100.3 12.7

Page 10: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

dt = d0 * (1+y*e)t

The annual consumption of the commodity

is predicted as

Where:

dt: annual per capita consumption in year t

d0: annual per capita consumption in base year

y: growth in per capita expenditure/income

e: expenditure elasticity of demand for the commodity

Page 11: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Human demand for each food item is

arrived by multiplying per capita projected

consumption in the year ‘t’ with projected

population.

Total domestic demand = Direct Demand

(human consumption) + Indirect demand

(seed, feed, industrial use, wastage etc.)

Page 12: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Indirect demand of food in

Bihar

Food commodity Indirect demand

(% of total demand)Rice 14.5

Wheat 18.4

Maize 51.6

Pulses 25.9

Edible oil 23.9

Vegetables 34.1

Fruits 78.0

Milk 34.6

Sugar 60.5

Meat, eggs and fish 49.7

Page 13: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Rice demand and production in Bihar

Year Demand

(mt)

Production

(mt)

Deficit/

Surplus

(mt)

Self-

sufficiency

(%)

2011 9.85 7.16 -2.7 73

2016 10.70 7.37 -3.3 69

2021 11.56 7.58 -4.0 66

2026 12.35 7.79 -4.6 63

Annual

growth, %

1.66 0.56

Page 14: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Wheat demand and production in Bihar

Year Demand

(mt)

Production

(mt)

Deficit/

Surplus

(mt)

Self-

sufficiency

(%)

2011 8.19 4.73 -3.5 58

2016 9.12 4.87 -4.3 53

2021 10.15 5.01 -5.1 49

2026 11.19 5.16 -6.0 46

Annual

growth, %

2.17 0.58

Page 15: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Maize demand and production in Bihar

Year Demand

(mt)

Production

(mt)

Deficit/

Surplus

(mt)

Self-

sufficiency

(%)

2011 1.19 1.84 0.66 156

2016 1.16 1.92 0.76 166

2021 1.11 2.01 0.90 181

2026 1.03 2.10 1.07 203

Annual

growth, %

-0.39 0.87

Page 16: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Demand and production of Pulses in

Bihar

Year Demand

(mt)

Production

(mt)

Deficit/

Surplus

(mt)

Self-

sufficiency

(%)

2011 1.113 0.531 -0.583 48

2016 1.310 0.534 -0.776 41

2021 1.563 0.537 -1.025 34

2026 1.860 0.541 -1.319 29

Annual

growth, %

3.31 0.12

Page 17: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Demand and production of

edible oils and seeds in BiharYear Demand (000 t) Production

(000 t)

Deficit of

Edible-

oils

(000 t)

Sel-

sufficien

cy, %

Edible

oils

Edible-

oils seeds

Edible-

oils seeds

Edible-

oils

2011 341 1137 140 42.0 -299 12

2016 380 1267 143 43.1 -337 11

2021 431 1438 148 44.2 -387 10

2026 502 1674 151 45.4 -457 9

Annual

growth,

%

2.18 2.18 0.51 0.51

Page 18: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Demand and production of sugar

and sugarcane in BiharYear Demand

(million ton)

Production

(million ton)

Deficit

of

sugar

(mt)

Sel-

sufficienc

y, %

Sugar Sugarcane Sugarcane Sugar

2011 1.21 13.14 12.26 1.04 -0.07 93

2016 1.25 14.69 13.11 1.11 -0.13 89

2021 1.40 16.45 14.01 1.19 -0.21 85

2026 1.59 18.67 14.98 1.27 -0.31 80

Annual

growth,

%

2.26 2.26 1.34 1.34

Page 19: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Vegetable demand and production in

Bihar

Year Demand

(mt)

Production

(mt)

Deficit/

Surplus

(mt)

Self-

sufficiency

(%)

2011 12.42 14.69 2.27 118

2016 15.19 16.47 1.27 108

2021 19.03 18.45 -0.58 97

2026 23.99 20.68 -3.31 86

Annual

growth, %

4.1 2.3

Page 20: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Demand and production of fruits in

Bihar

Year Demand

(mt)

Production

(mt)

Deficit/

Surplus

(mt)

Self-

sufficiency

(%)

2011 3.69 3.77 0.09 102

2016 4.67 3.98 -0.69 85

2021 6.10 4.20 -1.89 69

2026 7.98 4.44 -3.54 56

Annual

growth, %

4.8 1.1

Page 21: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Milk demand and production in Bihar

Year Demand

(mt)

Production

(mt)

Deficit/

Surplus

(mt)

Self-

sufficiency

(%)

2011 6.28 6.67 0.39 106

2016 8.22 8.82 0.60 107

2021 11.17 11.66 0.49 104

2026 15.33 15.43 0.10 101

Annual

growth, %

5.52

Page 22: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Demand and production of meat in

Bihar

Year Demand

(000 t)

Production

(000 t)

Deficit/

Surplus

(000 t)

Self-

sufficiency

(%)

2011 133 288 155 216

2016 204 310 107 152

2021 332 334 2 100

2026 548 360 -188 66

Annual

growth, %

9.8 1.5

Page 23: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Demand and production of eggs in

Bihar

Year Demand

(000 t)

Production

(000 t)

Deficit/

Surplus

(000 t)

Self-

sufficiency

(%)

2011 90 59 -31 66

2016 136 76 -61 55

2021 221 96 -125 43

2026 362 122 -240 34

Annual

growth, %

9.7 4.9

Page 24: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Demand and production of fish in Bihar

Year Demand

(000 t)

Production

(000 t)

Deficit/

Surplus

(000 t)

Self-

sufficiency

(%)

2011 611 400 -211 65

2016 938 524 -414 56

2021 1540 687 -853 44

2026 2556 900 -1656 35

Annual

growth, %

10.0 5.5

Page 25: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Demand and production of meat, fish

and eggs in Bihar

Year Demand

(mt)

Production

(mt)

Deficit/

Surplus

(mt)

Self-

sufficiency

(%)

2011 0.83 0.75 -0.08 90

2016 1.28 0.91 -0.37 71

2021 2.09 1.12 -0.98 53

2026 3.47 1.38 -2.08 40

Annual

growth, %

9.81 4.04

Page 26: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Annual growth in demand and

production of food in Bihar

Food Demand

(%)

Production

(%)

Rice 1.66 0.56

Wheat 2.17 0.58

Maize -0.39 0.87

Pulses 3.31 0.12

Edible oils 2.18 0.51

Sugar 2.26 1.34

Vegetables 4.11 2.30

Fruits 4.84 1.08

Milk 5.52 5.75

Meat, Fish & Eggs 9.81 4.04 1.72

Page 27: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Food security mission

Year Bihar India % share of Bihar

Number of poor households in Bihar (Million)

2011 5.8 55.8 10.39

2016 6.2 59.2 10.47

Demand of cereals by poor households in 2016

Rice 2.96 22.84 12.9

Wheat 2.14 16.70 13.0

Both 5.10 39.54 12.9

Monthly demand by poor households (kg/month/household)

Rice 39.1 31.6

Wheat 28.3 22.6

Both cereals 67.4 54.3

Page 28: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

Way forward food secure Bihar

Bridging yield gaps and improve TFP

Integrated nutrient management and

sustainable use of water

Agricultural diversification and value

addition with emphasis on horticultural,

livestock and fisheries

Strengthen institutions and improve basic

infrastructure like road network, power and

agro-processing and markets .

Link farmers with remunerative markets

Page 29: IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

ADMINISTRATOR

• Awareness

• Local wisdom

• Peoples’

participation

• SMALL

FARMERS

FARMER SCIENTIST

Establish Active Interfaces :

Bridge research and policy gaps

PRIORITY AREAS

SKILL DEVELOPMENT

NATURALRESOURCES

DIVERSIFICATION

POST HARVEST AND

VALUE ADDITION

TFP

MARKET VALUE CHAIN

Link farmers with

remunerative market

Higher investment on

R&D

ICT

Irrigation

Power

Rural Road