ifim - liquidity risk & cost of funds
TRANSCRIPT
Liquidity Risk Management &
Cost of Funds
Maneesh Raj
Agenda Liquidity Risk Understanding Liquidity & Liquidity Risk Liquidity Needs Estimation Liquidity Risk Management BCSB Principles Relating to LRM in Banks
Cost of Funds Basic Concepts & Components PLR & Base Rates
Understanding Liquidity & Liquidity Risks in Banks
Object of ALM Policy • Ensuring Profitability • Ensuring Liquidity Banks borrow ‘short’ and lend ‘long’
This ensures ‘price matching’ but may lead to ‘liquidity mismatch’
Management of Liquidity Risk and Interest Rate Risk go hand-in-hand but with a difference in
approach.
Cash Assets of Banks
• Banks own four types of cash assets : - Vault Cash - Demand Deposit Balances with RBI - Demand Deposit Balances with Other FIs - Cash Items in the Process of Collection(Float)
Why do Banks hold Cash ?
Why do Banks hold Cash ?
• Enable customers to do regular transactions• To meet mandates of Regulators• To serve nation’s Check Payment System• To purchase services from correspondent banks
However, Cash Assets do not generally
satisfy a Bank’s Liquidity Needs
What is Liquidity ?
Can convert to cash quicklyLow transaction cost to liquidate Does not move the market upon conversion
Qualities of a Liquid Asset
Two Facets of Liquidity ?
• Market Liquidity : easy to trade / low bid-ask spread small price-impact easy search / adequately available
• Funding Liquidity : funding from own capital funding from collateralized loans funding from “Market”
So, what is Liquidity Risk ?
• Market Liquidity Risk: - Risk that the market liquidity worsens when
you like to trade
• Funding Liquidity Risk: - Risk that a trader cannot fund his position
and is “forced” to unwind
Liquidity – Credit – Interest Rate Risk
Poor Liquidity Mismatched A/L maturities & Durations or by extending credit to high risk borrowers
High NPA / Reduced earnings
Negative Outlook in Market
Higher Rates to attract deposits / funds
Further Decline / Reduced Margins / non accruing loans / spiral effect
Liquidity Versus Profitability
• There is a short-run trade off between Liquidity and Profitability.
• Both Asset & Liability Liquidity contribute to this trade-off.
Liquidity Needs Measurement
Estimation of Liquidity
• Loan compartments made• Based on historic al trends,
future flows are estimated• Economic levels are also
factored in• Cyclic trends are established
1. Sources and Uses of Funds Method
• Sources and Uses of funds are studied / estimated• “Maturity Ladders” are constructed• Market access designed• Contingency plans drawn
Estimation of Liquidity 2. Structure of Deposit Method
• List all types of deposits at the bank• Assign “probability of withdrawal”• Arrive at withdrawable fund in planning horizon
Deposit Type Amount Held (Rs 000 Cr)
Probability Of withdrawal
Withdrawals
Demand Deposits 5 0.90 4.50
Other Demand Deposits 10 0.70 7.00
Savings Deposits 100 0.40 40.00
Term Deposits 50 0.20 2.00
Expected Deposit Withdrawals 53.50
Liquidity of Future Stocks
• their potential marketability, • the extent to which maturing asset /liability
will be renewed, • the acquisition of new asset / liability and • the normal growth in asset / liability accounts
Considerations while determining liquidity of the bank’s future stock of assets & liabilities
Liquidity Risk Ratios
• Loans to Total Deposits• Loans to Non Deposit Liabilities• Loans to Core Deposits• Unencumbered Liquid Assets/nondeposit liab.• Purchased Funds to Total Assets• Loan Losses / Net Loans (Net NPA %)
Asset Liquidity Measures
• Cash & Dues from Banks• Due from Banks • Treasury Securities• Corporate Obligations – maturing before 1 yr• Loans - easily sold / securitized
Liquidity Risk Management
Development of Liquidity Concept
• Short term self-liquidating loans (prior to 1930)• Shiftability Theory (1930-1950)• Anticipated Income Theory (1950)• Liability Management Theory
Now banks use comprehensive ALM to meet its Liquidity requirements.
Levels of LR Management
• Day-to-Day (up to a week)• Ongoing Cash flow Mgmt (up to 3 months)• Structural Liquidity (up to five years)
Catastrophic / Stress Liquidity Mgmt
Approaches - Liquidity Risk Management
• Fundamental Approach • Technical Approach
Though the two methods distinguish strategically, they supplement each other.
Fundamental Approach (1/3)
“ Liquidity can be imparted in the system either by Liability Creation or by Asset Liquidation.”
Asset Management :
- Aims to eliminate liquidity risk by holding near cash assets - Primary Assets will be the second to be utilized - Secondary Line of Defense : Unsecured Marketable Sec.
Fundamental Approach (2/3)
Liability Management
- focuses on the sources of funds - bank doesn’t maintain any surplus of funds - adheres to raising funds whenever so required
Asset Management Strategy emphasizes on the best deployment of funds , whereas Liability Management tries to achieve the same through mobilizing Additional funds.
Fundamental Approach (3/3)
• Historically, primary means• Involves instantaneous
generation of liquidity by assets-liquidation
• Newer Concept• Involves acquisition of
external funds when liquidity needs arises
Asset Liquidity Management Liability Liquidity Management
• Liquid Assets plays 2 roles : 1. Alternative source of funds2. Acts as Secondary Reserves It also boosts investors
confidence in the bank.
• Assets can be shifted from high earning instruments
• Greater Asset diversification Enhances: Interest Rate,
Capital Mkt & Financial Risks
Technical Approach
• Focus is on Cash Flows Position• Working Funds Approach - Volatile funds - Vulnerable funds - Stable funds• Cash Flows Approach
Working Funds Approach (1/4)
• Working Funds = owned + deposits + float• Liquidity requirements for each component is
assessed (consolidated or segmented)
Component Liquidity Nature - Owned (capital) Nil - Deposits Variable - Float Variable
Working Funds Approach (2/4)
• Deposits Nature Liquidity Required - Volatile 100 % - Vulnerable < 100 %, depends on policy - Stable lower, ----- do ------• Floats - Similar to Deposits, mix of stable & variable
Working Funds Approach (3/4) Flow of Working Funds Approach
Determine Objective
Lay down the range of variance
Lay down the Avg Cash & bank balances to be maintained as % of total Working Funds
Collect Historical Data
Components of Working Funds
Working Funds Approach (4/4)
• Classifying deposits is a subjective decision
• Ignores potential deposits / flows
Limitations of the Approach
Cash Flows Approach (1/4)
Important Parameters :
- Planning horizon for the forecasts
- Cost Involved in forecasting
Cash Flows Approach (1/4) Flow of Working Funds Approach
Estimate Anticipated changes in deposits
Forecast on historical trends
Estimate the cash outflows : by deposit withdrawals & Credit accommodations
Estimate cash inflows by recovery
Determine Planning horizon of forecast
Estimate Liquidity Required
Liquidity Gap Report
Determine the number of time buckets
Determine the length of each bucket
Slot every asset, liability and off balance sheet item into a corresponding bucket
Compute the gap
Compute the cumulative gap and other related measures
Steps in Preparing a Gap Report
Liquidity Gap Report
• Under normal business conditions or going concern scenarios.
• Under bank or organization specific problems (such as inability to roll-over its deposits or withdrawal of deposits before maturity).
• Under general crises conditions (such as bank may not be able to raise funds from disposal of near liquid assets such as marketable securities).
Other Related Concepts
• Liquidity Planning Vs Reserve Requirements • Managing Floats (BoNY, Nov 20,1985)• Managing Correspondent Balances• Securitization as provider of liquidity
• LAF (Liquidity Adjustment Facility) of RBI
BCSB Principles for the Assessment of Liquidity Management in Banks
BCSB Principles for the Assessment of Liquidity Management in Banks
• Developing a Structure for Managing Liquidity• Measuring and Monitoring Net Funding
Requirements• Managing Market Access• Contingency Planning• Foreign Currency Liquidity Management• Internal Controls for Liquidity Risk
Management• Role of Public Disclosure in Improving Liquidity
BCSB Principles
• Principle 1 : Adopt an agreed strategy for the day-to-day management of liquidity.
• Principle 2: Board of directors to approve the strategy and significant policies related to the management of liquidity. The board should also ensure that senior management takes the steps necessary to monitor and control liquidity risk.
• Principle 3: Each bank should have a management structure in place to execute effectively the liquidity strategy. Banks should set and regularly review limits on the size of their liquidity positions over particular time horizons.
• Principle 4: A bank must have adequate & timely information systems for measuring, monitoring, controlling and reporting liquidity risk.
Developing a Structure for Managing Liquidity
BCSB Principles
• Principle 5: Each bank should establish a process for the ongoing measurement and monitoring of net funding requirements.
• Principle 6: A bank should analyse liquidity utilising a variety of “what if” scenarios.
• Principle 7: A bank should review frequently the assumptions utilised in managing liquidity to determine that they continue to be valid.
Measuring and Monitoring Net Funding Requirements
BCSB Principles
Principle 8: Each bank should periodically review its efforts to establish and maintain relationships with liability holders, to maintain the diversification of liabilities, and aim to ensure its capacity to sell assets
Managing Market Access
BCSB Principles
Principle 9: A bank should have contingency plans in place that address the strategy for handling liquidity crises and include procedures for making up cash flow shortfalls in emergency situations.
Contingency Planning
BCSB Principles
• Principle 10: - Measurement, monitoring and control system for its liquidity
positions in the major currencies in which it is active. - A bank should also undertake separate analysis of its
strategy for each currency individually.
• Principle 11: Set and regularly review limits on the size of its cash flow mismatches over particular time horizons for foreign currencies in aggregate and for each significant individual currency in which the bank operates.
Foreign Currency Liquidity Management
BCSB Principles
Principle 12: • Develop adequate system of internal controls over its
liquidity risk management process. • Regular independent reviews and evaluations of the
effectiveness of the system and• The results of such reviews should be available to
supervisory authorities
Internal Controls for Liquidity Risk Management
Measuring Cost of Funds
3-6-3 Method to Run a Bank
• In highly regulated banking environment worldwide :
- Liability Management was routine - Customers had hardly any choice - Customers were loyal
So, the Golden Rule was : Pay 3 % on deposits, charge 6 % on loans and hit the golf course at 3 o’clock
Major Components
• Cost of acquiring funds• Cost of admin. Overheads & Operational costs• Cost attached with making loans• Costs attributable to Risk factors• Related Considerations (profitability goals etc)
Methods of Computing Cost of Funds
• Average Cost of Funds• Marginal Cost of Funds• Match Funding
Average Cost of Funds
Methods of Computing Cost of Funds
• Avg historical costs are taken for pricing decisions
• Historical interest expenses are clubbed with non-interest expenses
• They don’t take future costs into consideration• Theory assumes that the interest rate will be
constant at historical levels
1. Average Cost of Funds
Methods of Computing Cost of Funds
- A measure of borrowing cost to acquire one additional unit of investable funds
- Rising Rate : Marginal Cost > Historical costs Falling Rate : Marginal Cost < Historical Costs
- Marginal Cost = ( forecasted Interest Rate + Servicing Cost + Acquisition cost + Insurance) / (1-% of funds in nonearning assets)
2. Marginal Cost of funds
Sources of funds & their costs
• Owned Capital : Direct Cost : Opportunity Cost : say, 8.00 %
• Reserve Requirements Present C.R.R. : 6.00 % Opportunity Cost : 0.50 %
6.50 %
Sources of funds & their costs
• Deposits
Current Accounts : Nil, but highly volatile Savings Accounts : 3.50 % Term Deposits : Market determined
• Deposits Insurance
Premium Charged : 1.25 %
Sources of funds & their costs
• Borrowals : - From RBI : Repo Auction : 5.25 % - Call Money : 4.00 % - Money Market Borrowal: say, 5-6 %
Sources of funds & their costs• Costs on Bad Debts: - Provisions - Capital Charges - Carry Costs - Opportunity Costs - Higher Risk Premium
Calculate : Weighted Avg Cost of all items Add : Risk Premium Add : Administrative & Operational costs
A Typical Risk-based Pricing
7.5%8.1%
14.2%13.6%
11.0%10.7%10.2%
9.3%
12.3%11.8%
11.0%
12.8%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
SB1 SB2 SB3 SB4 SB5 SB6 SB7 SB8
Co
st a
nd
Pri
cin
g
Cost of funds Costs + Premium PLR Existing Pricing
Costs = 7.3%
Risk Premium
10.25% [PLR]
A Typical Risk-based Pricing
9.5%8.9%
10.7%
11.5%12.1%
12.4%
15.0% 15.6%
12.8%
11.0%
11.8%12.3%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
SB1 SB2 SB3 SB4 SB5 SB6 SB7 SB8
Co
st
an
d P
ricin
g
Cost of funds Costs + Premium Proposed Pricing
PLR Existing Pricing
Risk Premium
Costs = 7.3%
10.25% [PLR]Spread
BPLR Vs Base Rate ?
Base Rate will include • the card interest rate on retail deposit - deposits below
Rs. 15 lakh with one year maturity - adjusted for CASA deposits
• adjustment for the negative carry in respect of CRR and SLR
• unallocated overhead cost for banks which would comprise a minimum set of overhead cost elements
• average return on net worth.
Thank You !
Depositor’s Panic - Incidences
• April 13,2003 : ICICI, Rs 250 Cr withdrawal ; RBI came defending ICICI’s strength• Feb. 11, 2002 : Bank of Punjab• 2002 : Many cooperative banks were run. Ex : General Cooperative Bank (Gujarat) Suryapur Cooperative Bank (Surat) Diamond Jubilee Bank (Surat)
• Nov 20, 1985Bank of New York, a $ 16 bn firm, finds that the bank was deficient
in its required reserve holdings by $ 23.60 bn.
• 1984 : Continental Illinois Bank • 1991 : Bank of New England
• 2007-08 : During Subprime Crisis, Liquidity Crunch was one of the most major factors