if we can stop ozone depletion why can't we stop global warming

Why Have the Successful Attempts to Govern the World’s Production of

Chlorofluorocarbons Not Been Duplicated in Other Areas of Global

Environmental Protection? Cities and Global Governance II:

Environmental Politics

ISA 2009: New York City

Charles LaffiteauUniversity of Texas at Dallas &

Dublin City University

Cities and Global Governance II: Environmental Politics

The issues surrounding the need to protect our global

environment have only recently come to light over the last fifty

years, dating to the 1962 publication of biologist Rachel Carson’s groundbreaking book,

Silent Spring.


While govt. officials are aware of the problems caused by

environmental degradation and abuse, they are often reluctant

to take the steps needed to curb such abuses lest they offend

special interest groups i.e businesses and multi-national

corporations (MNCs)


“As governments and consumers in (wealthier nations of) the global

North have restricted or banned a number of tobacco products,

pharmaceuticals and pesticides; global marketing (by MNCs) has created new outlets for these

goods in (developing countries of) the global South and Far East.” [1]

[1] Jan Aart Scholte Globalization. A critical introduction, (New York: St. Martins Press, 2000):213-214


Environment NGOs have been moderately successful raising

overall global public awareness and in one particular instance,

pressuring most countries to sign an international agreement to

deal with the environmental issue of CFCs and ozone depletion.


The ozone regime established through the 1985 Vienna

Convention and the 1987 Montreal Protocol was particularly successful initially, but less so more recently.

By 1997 world production of most ozone-depleting substances had fallen to 76 percent of the 1988

level.


1. The limited number of uses for CFCs also weren’t considered essential in much of the world

2. DuPont scientists were able to develop an economically suitable replacement chemical (HFCs)

3. Only a few MNCs, operating mainly in the developed world, were producers of CFCs


Unfortunately, progress on other environmental issues, such as cutting the CO2 emissions that

contribute to climate change, has been slow to non-existent in

most countries around the world.


These factors add to the political complexities of regulating fossil fuel greenhouse gas emissions

1. Many essential uses (heat, plastics, transport fuel, electricity, fertilizer)

2. Few if any economical substitutes3. Many national & MNC producers


CFCs-few essential uses-refrigeration and air conditioning systems

Fossil fuels-many essential uses-electricity, heat, jet & auto fuel, ag fertilizer, plastics

CFCs-economical substitutes-HFCsFossil fuels-substitutes are much more costly

CFCs-few multinational corporate producersFossil fuels-many nations as well as many

multinational corporate producers


In the classical economics model, the search for and development

of economical substitutes for any product is driven by a need or a

desire by consumers and producers for lower cost

alternatives.

Figure 1: Inflation adjusted price of imported oil for past ten years vs 1981 peak

Figure 2: Inflation adjusted real vs. nominal price of imported oil past 30 years

Imported Crude Oil Prices: Nominal and Real

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Short Term Energy Outlook-January 2009

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Figure 3: Inflation adjusted real vs. nominal price of gasoline for past 90 years

Real Gasoline Pump Price: Annual Average 1919- 2010

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Short Term Energy Outlook January 2009

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It is therefore hard to envision any international agreement to

regulate the use of fossil fuels and reduce greenhouse gas

emissions being as achievable or successful as the agreement on

ozone depletion, especially since the world's two biggest emitters, the US and China, have still not cut their outputs under Kyoto.


Many countries in the EU have signed and ratified the Kyoto

Protocol but have actually made less progress cutting their rate of

growth in green house gas emissions than the oft-criticized US which, under President Bush,

has refused to ratify Kyoto.

Figure 4: Total EU greenhouse gas emissions in relation to the Kyoto target


Given this lack of progress, some environmentalists have now

come to the conclusion that a more expeditious way to

address their environmental concerns might be through the

use of existing international agreements and public

international law.


Currently, the only existing international institution within

the framework of public international law that is in a

position to mediate and adjudicate environmental issues and global trade disputes, is the WTO.


“The WTO Appellate Body decision in the Shrimp-Turtles dispute actually strengthens

the right of the state to adopt conservation measures

(sympathetic to environmental NGO concerns) by a liberal

interpretation of ‘exhaustible natural resources’” [1]

[1]Tanyarat Mungkalarungsi “The Trade and Environment Debate” Tulane Journal of

International and Comparative Law, Vol. 10 (2002): 381


My analysis of the WTO Appellate Body’s decision in Shrimp-

Turtles suggests that best allies for NGOs would be sympathetic

WTO member states that are both willing to implement trade

related environmental restrictions and also apply

these policies fairly.


How do you persuade governments to be more

sympathetic to environmental concerns and to implement trade related environmental restrictions?


Environmentalists should also concentrate on developing

relationships with their native country’s business and social elites.

If business and social elites can be convinced that there is an urgent

need for action, then they will make sure government officials

cooperate.


What is ultimately needed?

An international institution such as a World Environment

Organization (WEO), with enough regulatory and

governance powers to protect society and the environment from the negative impacts of

climate change.