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    If Laiza falls, the Union of Burma is finished?

    Sun, 2013-01-20 08:18 admin

    By Kanbawza Win

    There cannot be the Union of Burma but only the Union of Myanmar, with the imperial Mahar Myanmar race

    lording perpetuity over the ethnic nationalities was authentically proven to the world when The decision to use air

    power against ethnic militias, a tactic unheard of even under military rule, runs counter to reformist President Thein

    Seins assurances that troops were acting only in self defense, wrote Martin Petty of Reuters. Very lately there was

    indiscriminate shelling kills some civilians including some women and children in Laiza.

    Most of the international communities tactically approve this by staying numb in this inhuman atrocities because of

    Burmas rich natural and human resources couple with a potential virgin market, dubbed as the last frontier, which

    they have set their hearts to exploit.

    It was only yesterday that EU Foreign Affairs Catherine Ashlon announced EU position as it was dominated by the

    Nazi ancestors just like in the southern hemisphere led by the ancestors of the former prisoners are out and out to

    exploit the former colony.. The hypocrisy of these Western nations were matched by the ancestors of fascist couplewith the ancestors of the dictatorships of the proletariat whose Asian values pale miserably in the universal

    declaration of human rights, not to mention the ASEAN values that has been encouraging the Burmese Generals all

    these years with its Constructive Engagement. It was only US, UK and the UN that have the moral courage to

    protest.

    When the modern Union of Burma was born in 1948, the different nationalities of Shan, Chin, and Kachin had

    willingly joined the Union led by Myanmar leader Bogyoke Aung San (father of Aung San Suu Kyi) with the

    promise that they will run on federal lines but after his assassination the concordat was broken and the central

    government spearheaded by the Imperial Myanmar Tatmadaw dominated by the Myanmar embarked on a divide

    and rule policy in their ethnic cleansing policy. The Karen had experienced the atrocities of the Burmese army in

    World War II. at that time under the name of BIA (Burma Independence Army) wanted to stay clean and was about

    to overthrow the government, when the Chin and the Kachin rally behind the Union and resolutely defended theUnion of Burma where thousands of their sons made supreme sacrifices and now this very Myanmar Tatmadaw is

    using modern weaponry coordinating aerial attack and heavy artillery fire indiscriminately using 81mm, 105mm and120mm mortar shells and occasionally using chemical weapons in killing Caching and injuring several innocent

    citizens.. What an irony that the patriotic Union Burmese army has become andImperial Myanmar Tamadaw under

    the guidance of the Myanmar Generals?

    No doubt the Kachin had made a mistake when it broke away from the other ethnic nationalities and signed a truce

    in 1994 leaving the other ethnic nationalities at the mercy of the Junta and now it is vice versa as the other ethnic

    nationalities have signed ceasefires and the Imperial Myanmar Tatmadaw has turned their wrath on the Kachin.

    Taking a leaf out of the Fascist Japanese, the Imperial Myanmar Tatmadaw has chosen to mount a major military

    offensive on Christmas season. The weakness of the unity of the ethnic nationalities, now under UNFC (United

    Nationalities Federal Council) this divide and rule policy worked admirably for the Myanmar dominatedgovernment. It was perfectly timed because on December 14, just the day after the government offered a new round

    of peace talks it launched a major offensive. Since then, in an all out effort to capture the KIO administration center

    of Laiza has begun after 1,360 skirmishes with the Kachin Independence Army.

    The governments ceasefire announcement, came only hours after Parliament approved a resolution calling for an

    end to a year and a half of fighting as the Imperial Myanmar Tatmadaw actions have come under increased

    international scrutiny. But it is unclear whether the military will comply with the order because the Burmese Army is

    a state within a state as the 2008 Nargis Constitution has stipulated that it have its own tribunal and will listen to it

    only, and not to the President who had ordered several ceasefires. Rev. Samson Hkalam, the General Secretary of

    the Kachin Baptist Convention, said According to our experience, the declarations by the government are one

    thing, What the army does is another. This was proven to be true when the fighting stop in Lajayang area only but

    intensifies in Hka Pot and Hka Ya Bhum, both rebel-held hilltop posts located to the north and west of Laiza,respectively. However, the announcement can be influenced by a UN donor Conference in Naypyidaw which could

    result in a multimillion dollars aid package for Burma. The disturbing image of civilian causalities and fresh

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    atrocities has compel the rights groups to call on an international investigation into possible commission of war

    crimes against humanity and other serious human rights abuses in Burma. The quasi military government of Thein

    Sein's can lose all its international legitimacy just as quickly as it has regained it in the last two years.

    If the Burmese government continues the fight to capture Laiza, it will be a pyrrhic victory, as there is every

    possibility that the Kachin who are experts in guerilla warfare since 2nd World War will continue to fight

    relentlessly and can easily became an urban warfare. The ongoing offensive may cripple the KIA militarily, but itwill likely not defeat the Kachin resistance. The outcome will be intense ethnic hatred on the Myanmar by the Non

    Myanmar, making it even more difficult to establish a lasting peace. Many Kachin now feel that there is no place for

    them in Burma.

    According to the UNFC there will be no peace talk as long as the War in Kachin continues but more effective is the

    declaration of the WA communiqu which clearly says that there is every possibility that the other ethnic

    nationalities will have no choice but to follow the Kachin lead and take up arms again, maybe another 600 years of

    civil war as Burma has fought only 60 years. With the fall of Laiza it will prove that the Imperial Myanmar

    Tatmadaw is not the peoples army to defend the country from outside enemies but an occupational army

    implementing the Myanmar imperialism over the Non Myanmar ethnic nationalities.

    1. Neighboring Countries Reactions

    (a) China is the most responsible country in this Kachin crisis. It has sustain the Burmese Juntas all these years not

    only militarily but also diplomatically not only for its strategic values but also to exploit its human and material

    resources. Now that Burma has opened up and competition from the West has come in, it is forced to find a new

    strategy to controlNaypyidaw. Clearly in the implementation of Myanmar imperialism over the non Myanmar it was

    using two way strategy somewhat a two edged sword which in Burmese we say Ye Mote Ta Phet Mee Sa Ta

    Phetliterally translated meaning a can of water in one hand and a fire in another to keep the crisis going as only

    then she can control the Burmese generals.

    When the KIO signed a cease-fire agreement with the Junta it did not result in disarmament, but give the KIO

    enough room to consolidate its regional hold and develop a working bureaucracy as well as relative economic

    autonomy. This allowed the KIO to establish a toll system on the roads linking Burma to China, providing theKachin with a secure source of income and making them the de facto intermediaries of cross-border trade. The

    fundamental fact of Kachin state is that the Burmese government has very little real control over it. Historically,

    geographically, culturally and politically, the state is different, and that difference makes it restive and resistant to

    Myanmar's influence.

    China has taken advantage of that difference, positioning itself as moderator and in effect translator between the

    ethnic opposition and the Burmese administrations.

    Since Burma's isolation from the West, China has been Burmas only major ally, investor and trading partner.

    China's approach to Burma is grounded in its need for energy and alternate international trade routes to the South

    China Sea. As Burma's value grows China eyes warily any domestic political shift that could affect those interests.

    This entails a two-fold tactic: build strong relations with the central government while maintaining a balance ofpower between the government and ethnic opposition groups. That is why it allow the Burma Air force planes to use

    the Chinese airspace to attack the Kachin in view of the fact that this year that its oil and natural gas pipelines begin

    coastal port of Kyaukphyu run through both Shan- and Kachin-dominated territories on their way to Kunming in

    Yunnan province, leaving them open to sabotage from a variety of potential antagonists. On the other hand it has

    protested the falling of the shells into Chinas territory and sent reinforcement to paint the picture that China is

    neutral in Burmas internal affairs.

    For now, Burma is poised for greater openness boosting Burma's new democratic image, and outwardly Beijing

    encourages peace negotiations. But genuine reconciliation between Burma's ethnic opposition groups and the central

    government is not necessarily in China's immediate interest because China will likely suffer from Burmas attempts

    to improve its reputation on the international stage, as Thein Sein's move to halt the Chinese-financedMyitsone dam

    projects. The relationship between China and Burma, which might look cozy from the outside, is not without tension.Because 'China is a partner of last resort the Burmese junta has to turn to China. They don't like it, but it helps them

    stay in power.

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    Therefore, it can be predicted that China will continue to openly support political stability in Burma, while

    simultaneously working to maintain a balance of power within the country. This way China reaffirms its importance

    for Burmas efforts to maintain stability without relinquishing its role as arbiter between Myanmar's center and the

    Non Myanmar periphery. As the only remaining major ethnic opposition group to have refused a peace agreement

    with the government and China's closest cultural and historical link to the region, the Kachin crisis may be in the

    doldrums for sometimes

    (b) ASEANs main aim of Constructive Engagement was two fold, first to exploit Burmas natural and human

    resources as the architect of ASEAN leaders, especially those from Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand knew the

    potential of Burmese people and only by shoring up the dictators can they keep the people of Burma suppress and

    able to exploit the country and its people. In this aspect ASEAN is very successful as most of the workers in these

    three countries (both skilled and unskilled workers) are from Burma which they are able to exploit to their hearts

    desire. The second is to draw Burma from the Chinese orbit which they found it increasingly difficult and this led

    the Burmese government to operate freely in ASEAN without any restrictions for decades. It seems that ASEAN

    leaders knows more about the West and Northeast Asia rather than Burma, misperceptions and miscalculations on

    the various Burmese Juntas led the Burmese people to hate vehemently to these core ASEAN countries. When Thein

    Sein suspended theMyitsone Dam ASEAN heartedly applauded because most of the ASEAN members except Laos

    and Cambodia have been engage in a myriad of conflict with China, as even now they are trying to garland support

    from Burma in the Spratly Island crisis vis a vis China. Now with Burma in the ASEAN Chair in 2014 it will havesome aspect to claim that their globally hated Constructive Engagement is bearing fruits in fulfilling the community

    building process and the quasi military government will get the legitimacy which they crave so much.

    But ASEAN has served Burmas primary goal of gaining legitimacy from the international community and to ensure

    that it would lead to the lifting of sanctions by the West, however with the determined attack on Kachin by the

    Tatmadaw ASEAN is at a loss of what to do and continue remain numb.

    (3) India. Burmas relation with India is entirely different from China basically because India is a working

    democracy. The different systems of political economy in China and India might also pull the two countries in

    divergent directions. Now that Burma is inching towards democracy, the Indian way of doing things may become

    more attractive than the Chinese provided the Burmese pro democracy groups prevail over the hardliners Burmese

    Generals.

    Instead of India and China helping their fellow Asian countries to identify common norms and values -- which

    undergird other regional formations such as the European Union and America the two countries are on different

    strategic ways. This became the core of the Asian values in the perspective of the Foreign Policy.

    After 1988, India with missionary zeal cut off all contact with the Burmese junta and gave the Nehru Award to Daw

    Aung San Suu Kyi, soon reverse its policy when India realized that it had lost Burma to China. So, this shift from a

    moral, value-based foreign policy to realpolitikis typically the Indian mentality. After a radical change in 1992 India

    started supplying weaponry and equipment including 105 mm guns, T-55 tanks, light helicopters, transport planes,

    artillery ammunition and some naval craft. Swedish Carl Gustaf M-3 anti-tank rifles and related ammunition

    originally exported to India have ended up in the hands of the Burmese Army using them in its operations against

    the KIA followed by a media coverage brought India in the bad light of the people of Burma and the world.

    One could not comprehend of why the biggest democratic country in the world is on the wrong side Burmese ethnic

    community and the NLD that represent the 55 million people Burma. Perhaps realpolitik and greed which the

    Burmese label as Indian mentality compel India to be on the side of the Imperial Myanmar Tatmadawwho is using

    260 out of 340 Army battalions in its ethnic cleansing policy.

    The competition between India and China for influence in Burma reflects a larger jockeying for power between the

    two Asian giants. Hence in Asia the two blocs could well emerge: a China-led coalition that values centralized

    domestic control and whose favorite institution is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and countries like Laos,

    Vietnam, Cambodia, North Korea, Afghanistan, Pakistan etc versus a constellation of democracies loosely tied

    together by a web of strategic partnerships led by India and Japan and core ASEAN countries, Taiwan and the rest.

    Unlike India, China has real economic and security interests in Burma but is sensitive to international criticisms of

    its positions. Burma might evolve from a point of contention to an opportunity for even greater cooperation. A stable

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    Burma that is part of the international community could benefit both China and India. China has demonstrated its

    ability in the North Korea crisis to serve as a catalyst for compromise in a regional negotiating framework.

    Because of historical accidents that occurred at the end of the colonial period, many ethnic nationalities and their

    homelands are divided into different countries of Burma and India such as Chin, Kachin and Naga. Globalization

    effects currently represented by Indias Look East Policy and the Burmese military response to it. Ethnic

    nationalities in Burma and Northeast India have been fighting against their respective governments. These problemscannot be solved through military means alone, and a political solution is needed and the basic aspect is for the

    government to recognize the pre-colonial independent status of the Chin (Mizo in India), the Kachin and the Naga

    their autonomy and practice self-rule. Not colonial Myanmar over the Non-Myanmar people as it is doing now

    with the sustain attack on the KIO the Kachin people nearer to India have seek asylum there.

    2. The West and the Rest

    It seems that the Brussels based organizations led by ICG are either cockeye to the economic potentials or

    sympathetic to the military as even now President Thein Sein who eulogizes the Imperial Myanmar Tatmadaw in

    their military offensive against the Kachin using Air power is being nominated for the prestigious prize In Pursuit

    of Peace. The EU follow suit and could not give much thought about it, because they themselves are so engross in

    saving itself from disintegrating. It was influence by Germany who stood tall, having the strongest economy. It wasunder their directions that the Euro Burma office has to implement their policies and every body knows it out come.

    Only the UK a former colonial power sense sees the writings on the wall of what the quasi military government is up

    to and came out strongly against it. The rest of the EU members, like the French (because of TOTAL) Scandinavian,

    Nordic, Benelux, Eastern Europe, Italy, Spain has to kowtow to the mighty Germans decision.

    The Obama administration was tricked when the Burmese government skillfully plays the China Card. The US has

    known that Burma has only one patron, China in the world. In this context it must be construed that that it is not only

    for influence and loyalty but economic competition where US is on the defensive. But when Thein Sein decided to

    stop the Myitsone Dam, the US jumped into the fray. While on the other hand the end of the Afghanistan conflict

    with Osama bin Ladens death, along with those of many of his lieutenants, also means that the campaign against

    terrorists is no longer a super-priority. The 2nd Obama administration has a window of opportunity not seen since

    the end of the Cold War to refocus its strategy in South and South East Asia. America needs a long-term strategy hasrarely been implemented towards this crucial region and there is no better time for the U.S. to focus on a holistic

    Asia strategy than 2013.

    The picture painted by ASEAN including Burma that China is a threat to the world order drives home to the

    American policy makers to woo Burma. The US is stepping up its strategic engagement in the Asia Pacific and

    intended to target China's "string of pearls"strategy, which could help China gain a strong maritime presence in the

    Indian Ocean, an area covering crucial sea lines of communication en route to the mainland. So US is refocusing on

    "swing players", like Burma which is balancing the interests of the US and China without taking the side of either in

    order to maximize their own national interests and keep the military in power. The US fears that if it fails to counter

    the rise of China, it may have to be withdrawn from the region. So, it appears intent on developing ways to weaken

    China's power projection capabilities. While China has conducted active diplomacy designed to strengthen the

    friendly relations with ASEAN particularly Burma with the use of soft power it has struggle to erase the image of athreat because of the ideological idea of Communism. Burma has engaged China based on the principles of peaceful

    coexistence and Pauk Phawfriendship and enjoyed considerable space in its conduct of foreign affairs and has

    constantly repositioned in its relations with China to its best advantage.

    3. The Good, the Bad and the Ugly Myanmar

    Burma, like any other country has good and bad leaders, the good Myanmar like Bogyoke Aung San and his cabinet

    are all gone, while the bad Myanmar led by U Nu, Ba Swe, Ne Winalthough gone, their ancestors, particularly the

    Generals are still using the armed forces as their pocket army and are still deeply entrenched in their imperialist

    feudal nature of their thinking. All these 60 years the good Myanmar like Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, U Win Tin and

    the 88 generation are still attempting to build the Genuine Union of Burma but are of little success.

    Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has said that she would not step in to help end the conflict between the Imperial Myanmar

    Tatmadawand the ethnic Kachin freedom fighters without Government approval. This hand off attitude by a leading

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    good Myanmar is putting in a bad light and the international community should start thinking the liberation of the

    ethnic communities from the clutches of the Imperial Myanmar Tatmadaw who are bent upon weakening the Kachin

    by military action to force them to cease fire and participate in the peace process without a political dialogue. The 23

    Kachin Organizations has solicited the help of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to settle the dispute remain unanswered. And

    if the good Myanmar stays silent, it will be like the Muslims of the world. The numerous good Muslims did not do

    anything and so the bad Muslims take over and tarnish their image. Not every Muslim is a terrorist but every

    terrorist is a Muslim. So if this hypothesis is true not every Myanmar commit human right violation but every humanright violation in Burma is committed by the Myanmar soldiers.

    Now it has become clear, that these Burmese generals are not only against the very grain of Democracy and the

    Union of Burma itself, but also still continue practicing Lying the very concept of Truth as the lame excuse of

    self defense against the Kachin as using massive air power and chemical weapons? This typical colonial war is

    bound to unleash a new vicious cycle of civil war. Viewed from a historical perspective, the governments escalation

    of its ethnic war against the Kachin reveals that the celebrated reformist president and his comrades-in-arm are the

    newest in a long line of Myanmar imperialists who pursue a pathological militarism towards weaker, non-Myanmar

    ethnic communities. Thus Dr Zarni wrote:-

    The ruling elites of all stripes and colours since independence have always looked for easy scapegoats to blame for

    their own failures in pursuing lasting peace and building a healthy web of ethnic relations among pockets ofmultiethnic peoples. Among the official scapegoats were the power-mad Communists, secessionist minorities,

    Maoists in China, rightists in Thailand, Islamists in Bangladesh, Yankee imperialists and old colonialists in

    London.

    Aung San in a speech he delivered to the executive committee of the Anti-fascist Peoples Freedom League, which

    he headed in May 1946 said I am opposed to British imperialism, Japanese imperialism, and Myanmar

    imperialism,The current Burmese leaders are very much afraid to quote it and if his daughter did not apply it and

    remain silent, there may be no choice but the ethnic nationalities of Burma should form the Union of Ethnic

    Nationalities and leave the Myanmar out. Let the good, the bad and the ugly Myanmar who stays on the side lines

    fought it out among themselves.

    The architect of modern Burma Aung San believed that the only workable formula to build a healthy multi-ethniccountry was to enshrine the principle of ethnic equality among different ethnic communities and improve the

    conditions among the ethnic nationalities in peripheral but strategic borderlands populated by the Kachin, the Shan,

    the Karenni, the Chin, Rakhine, Mon and so on. Therefore, the escalated wars against the Kachin represent a fully

    imperialist campaign. Last week, a Karen National Union delegation led Gen Mutu Say Poe, traveled to Naypyidaw

    and said that peace talks can begin only when the guns stop smoking. The US Ambassador Derek Mitchell after

    visiting Kachin State in early Dec. remarked.

    I think both sides have to recognize that there is no military solution to this question, and that an eye for an eye

    will leave everyone blind, I dont see a viable political strategy here if escalation of military hostilities leads to

    further alienation of the Kachin people.

    In conclusion, may I humbly call on the international community that the bad Myanmar mentality of imperialismexisting in the existing and retired generals it is far better to help the ethnic nationalities in their war of liberation

    against theImperial Myanmar Tatmadaw and start dealing with the ethnic nationalities not only to save them from

    the carnage and extinction but also to create a much better world in that part of the globe where free trade and justice

    reigns.

    Foot Notes:

    When the Guns Stop, the Talks Can Begin an Interview by Irrawadd12-1-2013

    C. S. Kuppuswamy; C.S The War with Kachin, Analysis Asian Review 11-1-2013

    C. S. Kuppuswamy; C.S The War with Kachin, Analysis Asian Review 11-1-2013

    2 Myat::Laphai Zen. Burma Army Strikes Hits Laiza, three civilians killed Irrawaddy 14-1-2013

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    3 Letter by Kachin Alliance of United States of America to President Obama 9-1-2013 [email protected]

    4 15th Imperial Japanese army bombed Rangoon on Christmas day 1942

    5 Mizzima News 14 December 2012

    6 Burma Announces Unilateral cease-fire, New York Times 18-1-2013

    7 Ibid Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/19/world/asia/kachin-refugees-reported-to...?

    7 Win; Aye Aye, Kachin Ethnic Says fighting continuesIrrawaddy 19-1-2013

    8 Burmas Kachin advance may be its own undoing Chinland Guardian 19-1-2013

    9 Lintner;Bertil, A wider war looms in Myanmar Asia Times 12-1-2013

    10 Stratford Analysis; The Kachin's Role in Myanmar-Chinese Relations. (2012)., 36.

    11 See Sino Burma Treaty and the famous Bandung Conference of the five precepts of peaceful coexistence

    12 Feefer;John, India-China Eying Burma FIFA

    3 Chachavalpongpan;Pavin, The vexing strategic tug of war over Naypyidaw; ASEAN view of the Sino Burmese Ties.

    Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs.:

    4 See Bertil Lintner writings 2011

    5 Feefer;John, India-China Eying Burma FIFA

    6 Sen;Gautam, Cooperation between India and Burma Armed forces- EuroAsia Review 18-1-2013

    7 Sakhong; Lian H.The future of Indo=Burma Relations, a view from divided people

    8 Sang ho;Song US Step up Asia Pacific Pivot Korea Herald, 18-1-2013

    9 See, Maung Aung Myo 2011 Chapter V

    20 Maung Zarni, How Feudal imperialism continues to destroy the Union of Burmain DVB 15-1-2013

    2 Mizzima News 7-1- 2013

    Missima News 10-1-2013

    Maung Zarni, How Feudal imperialism continues to destroy the Union of Burma in DVB 15-1-2013

    2 Mizzima News 7-1- 2013

    Missima News 10-1-2013

    Maung Zarni, How Feudal imperialism continues to destroy the Union of Burma in DVB 15-1-2013

    http://www.asiantribune.com/node/61294

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