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Climate Change Impacts Assessment for Indiana: Health Impacts
Melissa Widhalm IN CCIA CoordinatorPurdue [email protected]
Jeremy WebberResearch Scientist – GIS & Remote [email protected]
Purdue Climate Change Research Center (PCCRC)
Jeff DukesDirector
Rose FilleyManaging Dir.
Melissa WidhalmIN CCIA Mgr.
Cindy FateAdmin Asst.
>100 Graduate/Postdoc Group
173 Peer-reviewed Publications
68AffiliatedFaculty
10Conferences, lectures, special events hosted on campus
9, 20Academic units & departments represented by
our faculty7.2 Million in sponsored grant awards
28 ResearchProjects
2013-2015 numbers
Analysis undertaken at the request of Senator Richard Lugar in 2008
22 faculty authors from across campus
Potential “no-action” impacts of climate change on Indiana
Potential opportunities and consequences of climate change mitigation in Indiana
To date, the only state-level assessment available for Indiana
Impacts of Climate Change for the State of Indiana
Prepared for: The Honorable Richard G. Lugar
Prepared by: Purdue Climate Change Research Center
About the IN CCIA:• Project initiated in late 2015• Statewide effort led by the PCCRC w/ contributions from multiple
groups across Indiana• Actively engaging stakeholders throughout this process; Help us
create information that matters!• Developing a series of technical reports and summaries for decision
makers and planners• Building the framework for an on-‐going assessment process
The IN CCIA will bring together the best available climate change research into a series of reports that will help Hoosiers better understand climate change-related risks so
they can prepare for challenges and capitalize on opportunities.
What will a changing climate mean for Hoosiers?
Agriculture
Water supply & quality Energy useHuman Health
Infrastructure Ecosystems Natural hazards
The IN CCIA will bring together the best available climate change research into a series of reports that will help Hoosiers better understand climate change-related risks
so they can prepare for challenges and capitalize on opportunities.
April 2016 June 2015 May 2014
Climate Change and Human Health
http://www.globalchange.gov/health-assessment
https://www.epa.gov/cira/downloads-cira-report
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
Indiana has gotten warmer and wetter over the past century or so…
…with more of its precipitation coming in a few big events
Source: Midwestern Regional Climate Center
Observations for IN05 (central Indiana)• Temperature trends have been gradual and seasonal,
greatest in NW IN• Min temps increasing in all seasons (0.85-‐1.49 ºF)
and annually (1.26 ºF) • Max temps decreasing in summer (-‐1.96 ºF) and fall
(-‐0.58 ºF) ; increasing in spring (0.64 ºF); no change in winter
Observed changes in the annual number of frost-‐free days (1991-‐2012 relative to 1901-‐1960)
Source: 2014 National Climate Assessment
1995 -‐ 2011
Source: Midwestern Regional Climate Center
Observations for IN05 (central Indiana)• Precipitation trends much more pronounced• Annual precip trend of 4.69” / century• Summer precip trend of 1.98” / century• Increasing trends observed in other seasons too:
spring 1.19”; fall 0.86”; winter 0.52”
The map shows percent increases in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (defined as the heaviest 1% of all daily events) from 1958 to 2012 for each region of the continental United States. The changes shown in this figure are calculated from the beginning and end points of the trends for 1958 to 2012. (Figure source: updated from Karl et al. 2009; accessed from National Climate Assessment 2014)
Future Projections for Indiana:Warmer, wetter, longer growing seasons
National Climate Assessment 2014
A2 scenario
Projected change in average temperature25-55 years from now
National Climate Assessment 2014
Projected change in frost-free days/year25-55 years from now
A2 scenario
National Climate Assessment 2014
Projected change in days/year over 95F25-55 years from now
A2 scenario
Union of Concerned Scientists 2009
Likelihood of the Warmest Day of the Year (Example shows Madison, WI)
Source: Dan Vimont, UW-Center For Climate Research
Projected changes in precipitation 25-55 years from now
National Climate Assessment 2014
Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009
Impacts of Climate Change: Indiana Summary
What are the potential health impacts related to climate change?
CDC, National Center for Environmental Health
Ripple effects will be worsened or moderated depending on a complex set of vulnerability factors.Ø ExposureØ Sensitivity Ø Adaptive capacity
Trends in demographics and health status are important considerations.
Various exposure pathways and climate drivers
National Climate Assessment 2014
Precipitation and Health
2014 National Climate Assessment Human Health
• Key message 1: Wide-ranging health impacts• Key message 2: Most vulnerable at most risk• Key message 3: Prevention provides protection• Key message 4: Responses have multiple benefits
Health ImpactsDiscussion
Topic: information needs• Are there specific questions or topics you would like to have addressed in a report
looking at climate change impacts in Indiana? o What future climate conditions or potential impacts are of most interest to you?
Topic: planning and decision making• In your opinion, how can climate change information be used for planning and decision
making? o Are there decisions that could theoretically be adjusted if you knew conditions
were going to change in a certain way? o Are there barriers that prevent you/others from incorporating climate change
information into planning and decision making?
Topic: existing projects• Do you know of any recent projects that we should be aware of that focus on climate
vulnerabilities or risks, or other climate change topics?
You can email feedback any time to Melissa Widhalm, IN CCIA Coordinator, at [email protected]
The IN CCIA will bring together the best available climate change research into a series of reports that will help Hoosiers better understand climate change-related risks so
they can prepare for challenges and capitalize on opportunities.
Contact Information:
Melissa Widhalm IN CCIA CoordinatorPurdue [email protected]
Jeremy WebberResearch Scientist – GIS & Remote [email protected]
Stay in touch, sign up for the IN CCIA Newsletter:http://www.purdue.edu/discoverypark/climate/in-‐ccia/newsletters.php