iea energy technology perspectives: scenarios for industry ... · 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 gtco 2...
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© OECD/IEA 2015© OECD/IEA 2015
IEA Energy Technology Perspectives: Scenarios for Industry Decarbonisation
EPRI and IEA Workshop Renewables and Clean Energy for Industries29 November 2016, Washington, DC
Eric Masanet, PhDEnergy Technology Policy DivisionInternational Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA 2015
IEA Energy Technology Activities
Where do we need to go?
Where are we today?
How do we get there?
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Sizing the scale of the challenge…… and its solutionsSizing the scale of the challenge…… and its solutions
The carbon intensity of the global economy can be cut by two‐thirds through a diversified energy technology mix
Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions
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GtCO
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Renewables 32%
Energy efficiency 32%
Fuel switching 10%
Nuclear 11%
CCS 15%2DS
4DS
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The industrial sector accounts for 23% of cumulative CO2reductions in the 2DS
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Direct industrial CO2 emissions and final energy reductions in the 2DS compared with the 6DS
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GtC
O2
CO2 emissions
Cement Iron and steel Pulp and paperAluminium Chemicals and petrochemicals Other industries
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EJ
Final energy
Large reductions in direct CO2 emissions are possible, but energy use and emissions must be decoupled
The path forward for industry?The path forward for industry?
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6DS 4DS 2DS 6DS 4DS 2DS
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Chemicals andpetrochemicals
Iron and steel
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Biomass and waste Natural gas Electricity Heat Oil Coal
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6DS 4DS 2DS 6DS 4DS 2DS 6DS 4DS 2DS
2013 2050 2013 2050 2013 2050
Cement Pulp and paper Aluminium
Decoupling energy use and CO2 requires a mix of technologies …Decoupling energy use and CO2 requires a mix of technologies …
By 2050, biomass, waste, and electricity grow to 25% of final energy demand, while overall energy use decreases by 24%
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… including a pivotal role for industrial carbon capture… including a pivotal role for industrial carbon capture
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The deployment of CCS from all sources must be accelerated to stay on track for the 2DS
Sources of CO2 emissions captured in the 2DS
28% of cumulative CO2captured
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Other renewable power
Buildings
Nuclear
Transport
Appliances and lighting Energy storage
Industry
Biofuels Carbon capture and storage
More efficient coal‐fired power
Electric vehicles Solar PV and onshore wind
Technology Status today against 2DS targets by 2025
●Not on track ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On track
Clean energy deployment is still overall behind what is required to meet the 2°C goal, but recent progress on electric vehicles, solar PV and wind is promising
Progress in clean energy needs to accelerate
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The challenge increases to get from 2 degrees to “well below” 2 degrees …The challenge increases to get from 2 degrees to “well below” 2 degrees …
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Energy‐ and process‐related CO2 emissions by sector in the 2DS
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GtCO
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Agriculture 2%
Buildings 8%
Industry 33%
Transport 24%
Other transformation 4%
Power 29%
Industry and transport account for the majority of remaining direct emissions in the 2DS in 2050.
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Decarbonizing energy‐intensive industries requires accelerated technology and policy innovation
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Gt C
O2
Global direct industrial CO2 emissions
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EJ
Global industrial final energy demand
… and energy‐intensive industries must lead the way… and energy‐intensive industries must lead the way
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Detailed picture of today’s energy system
Primary energy Transformation sector End‐use sectors Service demands
Global energy system today
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Primary energy Transformation sector End‐use sectors Service demands
Global energy system in the 2DS 2050
What would a 2DS world look like?
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ETP modelling frameworkEnd‐use sectors Service demands
Hybrid model
Industry
Long‐term simulation
Buildings
Mobility Model (MoMo)
Transport
Primary energy Conversion sectors
Renewables
Fossil
Nuclear
Electricity T&D
Fuel conversion
Fuel/heat deliveryETP Supply (bottom‐up optimisation)
Final energy
Electricity
Gasoline
Diesel
Natural gas
Heat
etc.Passenger mobilityFreight transport
…
Space heatingWater heating
Lighting…
Material demands…
ETP modelling framework
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COKE OVEN
SINTERING
PELLETISING
BLAST FURNACE
DIRECT REDUCED IRON
BASIC OXYGEN FURNACE
SMELTING REDUCTION
ELECTRIC ARC FURNACE
CONTINUOUS CASTING
COLD ROLLING
HOT ROLLING
NEAR SHAPE CASTING/ROLLING
Crude Steel
Elec.
Coke
Fuel
Raw material
preparationIron making Steel
makingSteel casting and
finishing
Iron ore
Sinter
Pellets
Scrap
Hot metal
DRI
Liquid steel
Casted steel
Direct CO2 emissions
ETP Times Iron & Steel model scope
NOTE: This is a high level technology structure model representation is displayed in this slide. Each module can be broken down into a group of technology options
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While continued efficiency gains are needed …
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Energy efficiency continues to deliver, but is limited by current technology and scrap availability
Iron and steel aggregated energy intensity
Note: Aggregate energy intensity includes final energy consumption in blast furnaces and coke ovens, as well as the portion of fuel consumption related to thermal energy generation of captive utilities for internal use.Source: Derived from IEA Energy Balances.
While continued efficiency improvements are critical …
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Globally, 6% of the final energy use in iron and steel making could be technically recovered
… expanding spatial boundaries may achieve greater energy savings …… expanding spatial boundaries may achieve greater energy savings …
NOTE: Only medium and high temperature IEH sources (>100 degC) and commercial recovery technologies included.SOURCE: Energy Technology Perspectives 2016
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BOF off‐gasrecovery
EAF off‐gas thermalrecovery
CDQ
GJ/t crude
steel
EJ
China India Other Asia Africa and Middle East Non‐OECD Latin America Other non‐OECD OECD Specific EH recovery potential
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Sinter cooler exhaustthermal recovery
GJ/t crude
steel
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Global excess heat recovery technical potential – Iron and steel
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Low‐carbon process technology RD&D is promising, but progress must be accelerated
Note: This slide is not intended to provide an exhaustive list. Sketch is not at scale and time milestones are just illustrative.
… and more innovative low‐carbon technology options are needed
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32 global publications, 21 different technology areas
Re‐endorsed at G7 Energy Ministerial Meeting in May 2016 (Kitakyushu)
New Cycle for Implementation: • Near‐term actions• Regional Relevance• Key partnerships (e.g.
Finance)• Metrics and Tracking
Technology Roadmapping: Bringing stakeholders together
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Low‐Carbon Technology Roadmaps
2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014 2015
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IEA Roadmaps: action plans to accelerate industrial energy transitions
2009 2013 2015 2017
Global Cement
India Cement Chemical catalysis CCS
Hydrogen Brazil Cement India Cement UpdateTentative:• Global Cement Update• Iron and steel
23%28%
11%
3%1%
4%2%5%
4%1%1%
2%
15%
Final industrial energy use , 2014 (154 EJ)Iron and steelChemical and petrochemicalNon‐metallic mineralsNon‐ferrous metalsTransport equipmentMachineryMining and quarryingFood and tobaccoPaper, pulp and printWood and wood productsConstructionTextile and leatherNon‐specified (industry)
SOURCE: IEA Energy Balance. Note: Iron & Steel includes blast furnaces and coke ovens. Chemicals & Petrochemicals includes petrochemicals feedstocks.
© OECD/IEA 2013
GHG emissions avoidance potential in chemical industry
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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Total G
HG Sav
ings [G
tCO
2‐eq
]
Incremental Improvement BPT conservative BPT optimistic
Emerging optimistic Biomass Hydrogen
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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Total G
HG Sav
ings [G
tCO
2‐eq
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Incremental Improvement BPT conservative BPT optimistic
Emerging optimistic Biomass Hydrogen
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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Total G
HG Sav
ings [G
tCO
2‐eq
]
Incremental Improvement BPT conservative BPT optimistic
Emerging optimistic Biomass Hydrogen
Incremental improvement: relatively small and anticipated technological advances in the “normal course of business”
© OECD/IEA 2013
GHG emissions avoidance potential in chemical industry
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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Total G
HG Sav
ings [G
tCO
2‐eq
]
Incremental Improvement BPT conservative BPT optimistic
Emerging optimistic Biomass Hydrogen
Best practice technology (BPT): widespread deployment of best practice/established technologies in existing plants or new facilities.
© OECD/IEA 2013
GHG emissions avoidance potential in chemical industry
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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Total G
HG Sav
ings [G
tCO
2‐eq
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Incremental Improvement BPT conservative BPT optimistic
Emerging optimistic Biomass Hydrogen
Emerging technologies: step‐change advances via new technology; currently in later R&D stages, demonstration with realistic potential to be commercialized.
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Hydrogen from water cleavage for ammonia and methanol production
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GHG emissions avoidance potential in chemical industry
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0.75
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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Total G
HG Sav
ings [G
tCO
2‐eq
]
Incremental Improvement BPT conservative BPT optimistic
Emerging optimistic Biomass Hydrogen
© OECD/IEA 2013
Additional energy and fossil energy savings for ammonia and methanol via hydrogen
Production of H2 results in significant additional energy use, but also significant GHG savings
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Urban transport investments
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4DS 2DS
2015 2050
USD
trillio
n
Internal combustion engine
Electrified
Parking and road
Metro and light rail
Infrastructure
Vehicles
In the 2DS, by 2050 one billion cars are electric vehicles while public transport travel activity more than doubles
Rethinking materials cyclesRethinking materials cycles
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Achieving BAT performance is critical, while accelerating low‐carbon innovations is essential• BAT includes energy and resource efficiency (e.g., yield improvements)• The pace of CCS deployment must increase• Low‐carbon process innovations require accelerated RD&D, investments
Low‐carbon fuel switching plays a key role• Biomass for renewable fuels and feedstocks, but supplies may be uncertain• Low‐carbon electrification scale depends on innovation
Expanding boundaries of influence can create new opportunities• Waste heat recovery for local plants/buildings• Materials efficiency in end use product applications
Multiple aspects of strong policy support are needed:• Long‐term energy and climate policy signals• Increased support for technology RD&D• Low‐carbon and energy efficiency labels and standards
Priorities for decarbonizing industry