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www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
IEA and EIA: Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches to Energy Modeling
for International Energy Agency April 16, 2012 | Paris, France by Howard Gruenspecht, Acting Administrator
IEO2011 Reference case and WEO2011 Policies Scenarios • IEO Reference case:
– Assumes current laws and policies
– Does not anticipate new policies or regulations that have not been implemented
– Includes alternative oil price scenarios and impact on markets
• WEO features its New Policies Scenario as its central scenario and assumes government commitments are “implemented in a cautious manner”
• The WEO Current Policies Scenario is the most comparable to IEO Reference case. All comparisons in this presentation are the CPS unless otherwise specified
4
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
2011 IEO & WEO Comparisons
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012 5
• Forecast Similarities: – Global liquids demand
– Global natural gas demand
– Global total energy demand – both project 1.6% annual growth
• Forecast Distinctions: – EIA base case assumes only current policies and regulations
– Significant differences on U.S. energy production, demand, and prices across fuels
– WEO forecasts a larger OPEC market share of global liquids production
– WEO assumes GDP growth remains constant across wide-ranging side cases
– WEO includes traditional, non-commercial biomass and waste in its renewables data which slows its growth rate compared to IEO resulting in an uneven comparison
Non-OECD liquid fuels use surpasses almost flat OECD liquid fuels use in the near future
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
total liquids consumption million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release
Projections History 2010
OPEC
Other non-OECD
OECD Americas
OECD
62
48
40%
19%
35%
41
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
Non-OECD 46
World oil price assumptions
7
2010 dollars per barrel
0
40
80
120
160
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
WEO-2011 - Current Policies Scenario IEO2011 AEO2012 WEO-2011 - New Policies Scenario
Source: EIA, AEO2012 and IEO2011; IEA, WEO-2011
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
World liquid fuels supply, 2035
8
million barrels per day
45.2
53.9
13.1
50.1
42.5
16.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
OPEC conventional Non-OPEC conventional Unconventional
IEO2011 WEO-2011 CPS
Source: EIA, IEO2010 and IEO2011; IEA, WEO2011
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East
9
OPEC conventional production million barrels per day
* Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Top 3 Middle East* Other Middle East OPEC Africa South America
2008 2035
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
Non-OPEC conventional supply growth comes mainly from Russia, United States, Brazil, and Kazakhstan
10
Non-OPEC conventional production million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Russia United States Brazil Kazakhstan OECD Europe Mexico Canada
2008 2035
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
National Petroleum Council Study
11 Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
Source: National Petroleum Council
Oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70 percent of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels
12
Unconventional production million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Oil sands/bitumen Biofuels Extra-heavy oil Coal-to-liquids Gas-to-liquids Oil Shale
2008 2035
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
Growth in energy consumption by country grouping, 2009-2035
13
2.3
0.9
2.3
0.5
0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.5
Non-OECD
OECD
WEO-2011 CPS
IEO2011
percent per year
Source: EIA, IEO2011; IEA, WEO-2011
Growth in income and population drive rising energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate increases in energy demand
14
average annual change (2008-2035) percent per year
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
U.S. OECD Europe
Japan South Korea
China India Brazil Middle East
Africa Russia
Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
China and India account for about half of the world increase in energy use
15
world energy consumption quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
0
100
200
300
400
1990 2000 2008 2015 2025 2035
Non-OECD Asia Other Non-OECD OECD
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
History Projections
Growth in China energy consumption by fuel, 2009-2035
16
2.8
5.5
1.9
10.7
5.1
2.7 2.6
6.8
2.1
9.7
1.4
2.5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Liquids Natural gas Coal Nuclear Renewables Total
IEO2011 WEO-2011 CPS
percent per year
Source: EIA, IEO2011; IEA, WEO-2011
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
Growth in India energy consumption by fuel, 2009-2035
17
3.5 3.7
2.1
10.2
3.7 3.0
3.5 4.3 4.1
8.4
1.3
3.5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Liquids Natural gas Coal Nuclear Renewables Total
IEO2011 WEO-2011 CPS
percent per year
Source: EIA, IEO2011; IEA, WEO-2011
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
Energy consumption in the United States, China, and India, 1990-2035
18
quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
0
50
100
150
200
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
India
United States
China
History Projections 2008
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
Growth in U.S. energy consumption
20
percent per year
Source: EIA, AEO2012; IEA, WEO-2011
0.6
0.5 0.5
0.6
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
2009-2020 2020-2035 2009-2035
AEO2012 WEO-2011 CPS
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
Growth in U.S. energy consumption by fuel, 2009-2035
21
0.5 0.6 0.8
0.3
2.1
0.7
0.3
0.7 0.3 0.4
2.1
0.5
-0.5
0.3 0.4 0.5
3.4
0.3
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Liquids Natural gas Coal Nuclear Renewables Total
IEO2011 AEO2012 WEO-2011 CPS
percent per year
Source: EIA, AEO2012 and IEO2011; IEA, WEO2011
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Energy-related CO2 emissions
2005 2020 2035 Energy-related CO2 emissions
6.00 5.55 5.81
% change from 2005 - - -7.5% -3.2%
In the AEO2012 Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions never get back to pre-recession levels by 2035
22
billion metric tons carbon dioxide
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release
Projections History 2010 2005
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
U.S. natural gas import prices
23
2010 dollars per million Btu
4.5 3.9
4.5
5.5 5.8
6.8
4.4
6.1
7.0 7.7
8.4 9.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
AEO2012 WEO-2011 CPS
Source: EIA, AEO2012; IEA, WEO-2011
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
Oil to natural gas price ratio remains high over the projection
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
ratio of oil price to natural gas price
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference Case
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Crude oil (foreign low sulfur light) U.S. Natural gas at Henry hub
History Projections 2009
Oil and natural gas prices 2010 dollars per million Btu
History Projections 2009
24
Since 2000, U.S. shale gas production has increased 17-fold and now comprises about 30 percent of total U.S. dry production
25
0
2
4
6
8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Rest of US Bakken (ND) Eagle Ford (TX) Marcellus (PA and WV) Haynesville (LA and TX) Woodford (OK) Fayetteville (AR) Barnett (TX) Antrim (MI, IN, and OH)
annual shale gas production (dry) trillion cubic feet
Sources: Lippman Consulting, Inc. gross withdrawal estimates as of November 2011 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play. Note: 2011 is annual rate for first 11 months.
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2%
Shale gas offsets declines in other U.S. natural gas production sources
26
U.S. dry gas production trillion cubic feet per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release
Non-associated offshore
Projections History
Associated with oil Coalbed methane
Non-associated onshore
Shale gas
2010
10%
7%
9%
7%
21%
23%
9%
9%
7%
49%
Alaska 1%
Tight gas 26%
21%
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release
Projections History 2010
Consumption
Domestic supply
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012
Net imports
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For more information
Howard Gruenspecht IEA, April 16, 2012 28
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