DAMNED IF YOU DO…DOOMED IF YOU DON’T.

The UNCBD and Solar Radiation Management

IP 614 Policy Brief | Lucas Dotto | April 13th, 2015

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What is Geoengineering?

“The deliberate intervention in the climate system.”

Mount Pinatubo, 1991

Carbon Geoengineering Carbon Dioxide Removal

Marine Geoengineering Ocean Iron Fertilisation

Solar Geoengineering Solar Radiation Management

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Why Solar Radiation Management?

Affordable – Can be up to 100x more cost-effective than other geoengineering proposals.

Feasible – It may only require a few passenger jets flying maybe once a day.

Effective – Just 1 gram of sulphur can counteract the warming effect of over 1 tonne of carbon.

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Arguments against SRM

“Moral Hazard”

“Rogue Engineer”

“Sulphur Rain”

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Arguments against SRM

“Moral Hazard”

“Rogue Engineer”

“Sulphur Rain”

Weighing these impacts of a geoengineered cooler planet against the impacts of a status quo warmer planet.

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The UNCBD and Geoengineering

Moratorium on geoengineering experiments & deployment at COP in 2010.

“Ensure…in the absence of science based, global, transparent and effective control and regulatory mechanisms for geo-engineering…that no climate-related geo-engineering activities that may affect biodiversity take place, until there is an adequate scientific basis on which to justify such activities and appropriate consideration of the associated risks…with the exception of small scale scientific research studies that would be conducted in a controlled setting…and only if they are justified by the need to gather specific scientific data and are subject to a thorough prior assessment of the potential impacts on the environment.”

Biodiversity damages primary concern.

Regulatory concerns secondary.

Uncertainty concerns tertiary.

Not legally binding, but normatively powerful.

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Recommendations

1. Parties to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity should develop, sign, and ratify a United Nations Convention on Geoengineering.

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Recommendations

1. Parties to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity should develop, sign, and ratify a United Nations Convention on Geoengineering.

The UNCoG should incorporate;

The Oxford Principles for geoengineering governance: Geongineering is a public good Public participation must be included Public disclosure of results Independent assessment of results Governance before deployment

A climate risk assessment system

A dispute settlement system

National-level scientific and regulatory agencies as principal agents

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Recommendations

1. Parties to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity should develop, sign, and ratify a United Nations Convention on Geoengineering.

2. The UNCBD should rescind their moratorium on geoengineering.

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Recommendations

1. Parties to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity should develop, sign, and ratify a United Nations Convention on Geoengineering.

2. The UNCBD should rescind their moratorium on geoengineering.

3. A Geoengineering Index should be created for measurable metrics.

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Recommendations

1. Parties to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity should develop, sign, and ratify a United Nations Convention on Geoengineering.

2. The UNCBD should rescind their moratorium on geoengineering.

3. A Geoengineering Index should be created for measurable metrics.

Clear definitions and measurable indicators need to be developed for the following:

Scale Experimentation Deployment Safe Legitimate

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Recommendations

1. Parties to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity should develop, sign, and ratify a United Nations Convention on Geoengineering.

2. The UNCBD should rescind their moratorium on geoengineering.

3. A Geoengineering Index should be created for measurable metrics.

4. Conversion units need to be developed for biodiversity and cooling metrics.

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Recommendations

1. Parties to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity should develop, sign, and ratify a United Nations Convention on Geoengineering.

2. The UNCBD should rescind their moratorium on geoengineering.

3. A Geoengineering Index should be created for measurable metrics.

4. Conversion units need to be developed for biodiversity and cooling metrics.

5. An Integrated Assessment Model should be developed as part of the UNCoG to produce a value for the Social Cost of Sulphur.

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Recommendations

1. Parties to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity should develop, sign, and ratify a United Nations Convention on Geoengineering.

2. The UNCBD should rescind their moratorium on geoengineering.

3. A Geoengineering Index should be created for measurable metrics.

4. Conversion units need to be developed for biodiversity and cooling metrics.

5. An Integrated Assessment Model should be developed as part of the UNCoG to produce a value for the Social Cost of Sulphur.

SCS is the estimate of damages associated with a one tonne increase in sulphur dioxide in the atmosphere in a given year.

Cooling is a climate service, monetizing it’s damages and benefits creates a funding stream to finance, for example, biodiversity protection.

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References American Enterprise Institute. (2013). Solar radiation management: an evolving climate policy option. Washington, DC:

Bickel, E. & Lane, L.  Carr, W. A., Keith, D. W., Mercer, A. M., Preston, C. J., Szerszynski, B., & Yung, L. (2013). Public Engagement on Solar

Radiation Management and Why it Needs to Happen Now. Climatic Change, 121, 567-577  Dykema, J.A., Keith, D.W., Anderson, J.G., Weisenstein, D. (2014). Stratospheric controlled perturbation experiment: a

small-scale experiment to improve understanding of the risks of solar geoengineering. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 372: 20140059.

Hamilton, C. (2015, February 12). The risks of climate engineering. New York Times. International Risk Governance Council. (2009). Cooling the earth though solar radiation management: The need for

research and an approach to governance. Pittsburgh, PA: Granger, M. IPCC. (2013). Summary for policymakers. In: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working

Group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.

Kearns, M., MacNaghten, P., Owen, R., Stilgoe, J., Szerszynski, B. (2013). Why Solar Radiation Management Geoengineering and Democracy Won’t Mix. Environment and Planning, 45, 2809-2816.

Keith, D., & Caldeira, K. (2010). The Need for Climate Engineering Research. Issues in Science and Technology, Fall 2010. Keith, D. (2013). A case for climate engineering. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press Keith, D.W., Duren, R., MacMartin, D.G. (2014). Field experiments on solar geoengineering: report of a workshop exploring

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Working Paper and Opinion Article Series. National Research Council. (2015). Climate intervention: reflecting sunlight to cool earth. Washington, DC: The National

Academies Press. Pierrehumbert, R. (2015, February 10). Climate Hacking Is Barking Mad. Slate. Rasch, P. J. & Smith, S. J. (2013). The Long-Term Policy Context for Solar Radiation Management. Climatic Change, 121,

487-497. Rayner, S., et al. (2013). The Oxford Principles. Climatic Change, 121: 499-512. Scheer, D. & Renn, O. (2014). Public Perception of Geoengineering and its Consequences for Public Debate. Climatic

Change, 125, 305-318. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity. (2012). Geoengineering in Relation to the Convention on Biological

Diversity: Technical and Regulatory Matters, Montreal, QC: Technical Series No. 66. Shepherd, J. G. (2012). Geoengineering the Climate: An Overview and Update. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal

Society, 370, 4166-4175. Solar Radiation Management Governance Initiative. (2011). Solar radiation management: the governance of research.

Location unknown.

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