idirect_futureretail_q1fy14

7/29/2019 IDirect_FutureRetail_Q1FY14

1/8

May 10, 2013

ICICI Securities Ltd|Retail Equity Research

Result Update

WHATS CHANGED

PRICE TARGET ....................................................................... Changed from | 256 to | 226

EPS (FY14E) ............................................................................. Changed from | 9.8 to | 2.4

RATING............................................................................................................... Unchanged

Higher-than-expected interest cost dents PATFuture Retails (earlier known as Pantaloon Retail) (FRL) Q1FY14 resultswere operationally in line with our estimates. However, due to a delay inpayment of the OFCD, interest costs continued to remain high contrary toour expectation. Consequently, PAT at | 2.0 crore came in significantlylower than our expectation of | 22.2 crore. FRL reported sales, EBITDAand PAT of | 2,907 crore (down 3.9% YoY), | 249 crore (down 10.4%YoY) and | 2 crore (down 83.6% YoY), respectively. The gross spaceaddition during the quarter was at 0.33 mn sq ft. However, due to thedemerger of the Pantaloon format, total space reduced 2.2 mn sq ft QoQto 14.1 mn sq ft. We have revised our earnings estimates considering thehigher interest costs. Owing to the forthcoming restructuring (Central andBrand Factory moving out of FRL to Future Fashion) we have notestimated numbers for FY15. Considering the incremental benefits ofreduced interest costs, we maintain our BUY rating on Future Retail with arevised target price of | 226 (based on 0.65x FY14E EV/sales).SSSG remains healthy barring home segmentSame store sales growth (SSSG) in the value and lifestyle segment

remained healthy at 8.1% and 9.6%, respectively. The renovation effortsand the strengthening of the fashion segment through Fashion at Big

Bazaar have borne fruit. However, the home segment continues to remain

weak with SSSG hovering in the negative territory at -4.1%.

Space addition continues to remain tepidDuring the quarter, FRL added 0.33 million (mn) sq ft of gross space.

However, due to the demerger of the Pantaloon and Pantaloon Factory

Outlet format, total space reduced by 2.2 mn sq ft sequentially to 14.1 mn

sq ft. Going forward also, FRL plans to go slow on space addition. We

expect total addition of ~0.4 mn sq ft during this fiscal.

Maintain BUY considering incremental benefits of lower debtWe have reduced our earnings estimates downwards considering thehigh interest costs (though it is expected to come down from Q2FY14).

We have not estimated numbers for FY15 considering the further

restructuring that will happen. However, we remain positive on FRL

considering the benefits it will enjoy due to lower leverage. Also, with a

higher share of food sales, the working capital cycle is likely to improve

significantly. We maintain our BUY rating onFuture Retail with a revisedtarget price of | 226 (based on 0.65x FY14E EV/sales).

Exhibit 1:Financial Performance of core retail business(| crore) Q1FY14 Q1FY14E Q3CY12 Q6CY12 QoQ(Ch %) YoY(Ch %)

Net Sales 2,907.0 2,736.7 3,026.4 3,170.8 -8.3 -3.9

EBITDA Margin (%) 8.6 8.6 9.2 8.8 -20 bps -62 bps

Depreciation 97.0 103.2 88.7 121.5 -20.2 9.4Interest 152.0 105.4 173.0 156.7 -3.0 -12.1

Other Income 3.0 5.0 1.8 6.9 -56.5 64.8

Reported PAT 2.0 22.2 12.2 4.4 -54.7 -83.6

EPS (|) 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 -54.7 -84.1 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Future Retail (PANRET)

| 153

ting matrix

ing : Buy

get : | 226

get Period : 12 months

ential Upside : 48%

y Financials

Crore) FY10 FY11 CY12* FY14E*

et Sales 9,786.9 12,225.6 20,186.4 13,802.7

ITDA 826.2 1,033.1 2,242.7 1,193.9

t Profit 67.5 141.5 275.7 55.5

S (|) (ann.) 3.3 6.5 11.9 2.4

e: Numbers for CY12E (18 months) are for core retail business and

4E (15 months) is projected excl. Pantaloon format and hence not

mparable with previous years Also, all the growth numbers are

cated on an annualised basis

luation summary

FY10 FY11 CY12* FY14E* / Sales (x) 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5

rget EV / Sales (x) 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.6

to EBITDA(x) 8.7 9.3 7.3 7.6

ce to book (x) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0

NW (%) 2.4 4.5 8.3 1.6

CE (%) 7.7 7.3 15.9 12.3

te: Numbers for CY12E (18 months) are for core retail business and

4E (15 months) is projected excluding Pantaloon format. Hence, it

ot comparable with previous years Also, all growth numbers are

icated on an annualised basis

ock data

arket Capitalisation | 3478 croreet Debt (Mar-13) | 4400 crore

| 7878 crore

week H/L (|) 276 / 124

uity capital | 46.3 crore

ce value | 2

F Holding (%) 12.6

Holding (%) 25.9

ce movement

100

150

200

250

300

Feb-13Dec-12Sep-12Jun-12Mar-12

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

Price (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S)

alysts name

harat Chhoda

[email protected]

hvani Modi

[email protected]


2/8

ICICI Securities Ltd|Retail Equity Research Page 2

Exhibit 2:AssumptionsFY10 FY11 CY12 FY14E*

Space (million sq ft) 13.0 15.2 16.4 14.5

Revenue per sq ft 7,540 8,027 11,010 9,499

Gross Margin 31.7 32.9 29.5 33.8

Debt (| crore) 4,352 6,853 5,229 3,026

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

* - excluding Pantaloon format

Q1FY14 Result Highlights PRILs Q1FY14 sales were marginally ahead of our estimates. The

company reported sales of | 2,907 crore (I-direct estimate:

| 2,737 crore). During the quarter, the gross space addition stood

at 0.33 mn sq ft. The revenue per sq ft at | 2056 was significantly

ahead of our estimate of | 1899

The SSSG for the quarter in the lifestyle, value and homesegments stood at 9.6%, 8.1% and -4.1%, respectively

Gross margins dipped from 28.9% to 27.3% (YoY). The operatingmargin at 8.6% was in line with our expectation

Due to higher-than-expected interest costs, PAT at | 2 crore wassignificantly lower than our expectation of | 22.2 crore

Exhibit 3:Topline trend

2,8602,911 2,893

3,0262,963

3,060

3,171

2,907

2,000

2,250

2,500

2,750

3,000

3,250

Q4FY11

Q1CY12

Q2CY12

Q3CY12

Q4CY12

Q5CY12

Q6CY12

Q1FY14

|

crore


Net sales dipped 3.9% YoY to | 2907 crore. The decline in

sales was due to demerger of the Pantaloon format and,

hence, not comparable


3/8


Exhibit 4:Space addition during quarter

3.3

1.10.4

8.4

0.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

Pantaloon Central &

Brand

Factory

Home

Town

E-zone Others BB & FB KB's Fair

Price

Others

Inmn

.sq.

ft.

Q4FY11 Q1CY12 Q2CY12 Q3CY12 Q4CY12 Q5CY12 Q6CY12 Q1FY14


Exhibit 5:Same store sales growth in lifestyle segment shows recovery

7.5

11.4

(4.5

)

3.6

6.5

1.3

3.2 5

.3

(3.2

)

2.73.5

(7.3)

0.4

4.7

(0.2)

10.8

5.1

12.7

8.19.6

(0.9)

(3.5)

(3.4)

(4.1)

(10.0)

(5.0)

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

Value Lifestyle Home



Exhibit 6:Gross margin trend

29.529.2 29.4

28.929.4

29.6

30.7

27.3

26

28

30

32


%


Due to demerger of the Pantaloon and Pantaloon Factory

Outlet format, the total operational space came down to

14.1 mn sq ft


4/8


Exhibit 7:EBITDA margin slips below 9% due to higher RM expensesEBITDA Margin

9.0 9.0 9.09.2

9.3

8.7 8.8 8.6

8

9

10

Q4FY11

Q1CY12

Q2CY12

Q3CY12

Q4CY12

Q5CY12

Q6CY12

Q1FY14

%


Exhibit 8:PAT margin remains weak due to high interest costsPAT Margin

1.7

0.5 0.40.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

1.5

0

1

2

Q4FY11

Q1CY12

Q2CY12

Q3CY12

Q4CY12

Q5CY12

Q6CY12

Q1FY14

%


Exhibit 9:Cost analysis (as percentage of sales)Q4FY11 Q1CY12 Q2CY12 Q3CY12 Q4CY12 Q5CY12 Q6CY12 Q1FY14

Raw Material Cost 70.5 70.8 70.6 71.1 70.6 70.4 69.3 72.7Employee Cost 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.5

Rental Cost 7.4 6.8 6.8 7.2 7.7 7.6 7.6 6.8

Other Expenses 8.6 9.0 9.1 8.4 8.3 9.4 10.4 8.4


Valuation

We have reduced our earnings estimates downwards considering the

high interest costs (though it is expected to come down from Q2FY14).

We have not estimated numbers for FY15 considering the further

restructuring that will happen. However, we remain positive on FRL

considering the benefits it will enjoy due to lower leverage. Also, with ahigher share of food sales, the working capital cycle is likely to improve

significantly. We maintain our BUY rating onFuture Retail with a revisedtarget price of | 226 (based on 0.65x FY14E EV/sales).


5/8


Financial summaryProfit and loss statement

(| Crore)

(Year-end June) FY10 FY11 CY12* FY14E*

No of months 12 12 18 15

Total operating Income 9,786.9 12,225.6 20,186.4 13,802.7Growth (%) 27.6 24.9 10.1 (17.9)

Cost of Goods Sold 6,682.8 8,199.0 13,007.0 9,144.3

Gross Margin (%) 31.7 32.9 35.6 33.8

Employee Expenses 624.5 684.8 1,131.4 773.0

Operating & Other Expenses 1,653.5 2,308.8 3,805.2 2,691.5

Tota l Operating Expenditure 8,960.8 11,192.5 17,943.7 12,608.8

EBITDA 826.2 1,033.1 2,242.7 1,193.9

Growth (%) 61.7 25.0 44.7 (36.1)

Depreciation 278.3 307.7 632.3 405.0

Interest 493.4 614.9 1,647.1 729.9

Other Income 126.1 64.1 130.0 20.7

PBT 180.5 281.1 472.6 79.8

Total Tax 107.3 139.2 130.9 24.3PAT 73.2 142.0 341.7 55.5

Share of Assoc. + Min. Int. 76.4 4.7 7.2 -

P AT (af ter minority interes t) 67. 5 141.5 275.7 55.5

Growth (%) 570.2 109.7 29.8 (75.8)

EPS (|) (annualised) 3.3 6.5 11.9 2.4


Cash flow statement

(| Crore)



Profit before Tax 180.5 281.6 472.6 79.8Add: Depreciation 278.3 307.7 632.3 405.0

(Inc)/dec in Current Assets -1,292.6 -3,259.3 525.5 1,850.4

Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions 691.1 792.2 858.3 214.2

Taxes Paid -38.8 -85.9 -73.6 -24.3

Others 432.8 510.2 1,003.5 729.9

CF from operating activities 251.2 -1,453.5 3,418.6 3,254.9

(Inc)/dec in Investments 33.0 -282.3 158.3 0.0

(Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets -603.3 -1,058.5 -2,262.6 -324.0

Others 122.4 7.7 24.6 -165.4

CF from investing activities -447.9 -1,333.1 -2,079.7 -489.4

Issue/(Buy back) of Equity 296. 90 168.0 174.5 0.0

Inc/(dec) in loan funds 493.8 2,809.1 -877.7 -2,895.4

Dividend paid & dividend tax -16.7 -25.8 -24.3 -6.5

Others -493.4 70.1 -932.1 0.0

CF from financing activities 280.6 3,021.4 -1,659.7 -2,901.9

Net Cash flow 83.9 234.8 -320.7 -136.4

Opening Cash 202.5 286.5 521.3 200.6

Closing Cash 286.5 521.3 200.6 64.2


Balance sheet

(| Crore)



LiabilitiesEquity Capital 41.2 43.4 46.3 46.3

Comp. Conv. Pref. Shares 69.5 838.9 753.9 753.9

Share Application Money 16.4 1.8 35.6 37.3

Reserve and Surplus 2,561.7 2,799.3 3,206.4 3,255.4

Total Shareholders funds 2,806.9 3,140.3 3,327.6 3,376.6

Total Debt 4,352.0 6,852.8 6,773.8 3,026.1

Deferred Tax Liability 110.2 155.5 219.9 226.3

Minority Interest 318.3 331.3 58.7 70.5

Others 187.5 189.0 408.3 428.7

Total Liabilities 7,860.8 11,509.5 11,577.6 7,919.2

Assets

Gross Block 3,086.8 3,950.6 5,773.4 5,083.6

Less: Acc Depreciation 440.0 673.1 1,141.3 1,534.3

Net Block 2,646.8 3,277.5 4,632.1 3,549.3

Capital WIP 304.4 344.6 552.7 175.3

Total Fixed Assets 2,951.2 3,622.1 5,184.7 3,724.7

Investments 909.8 1,369.7 1,391.2 1,391.2

Inventory 2,491.2 3,679.0 4,469.2 3,592.5

Debtors 391.4 550.8 547.2 453.8

Loans and Advances 2,662.0 4,479.0 3,226.8 2,346.5

Cash 286.5 521.3 200.6 64.2

Other Current Assets 15.7 102.2 17.4 20.0

Total Current Assets 5,846.7 9,332.3 8,461.1 6,476.9

Creditors 1,970.6 2,112.0 2,383.1 2,647.1

Other Current Liab. & Prov. 80.2 702.5 1,076.3 1,026.5

Total Current Liabilities 2,050.8 2,814.5 3,459.4 3,673.6

Net Current Assets 3,795.9 6,517.8 5,001.7 2,803.3

Application of Funds 7,656.9 11,509.5 11,577.6 7,919.2

Key ratios



Per share data (|) (annualised)

EPS 3.3 6.5 11.9 2.4

Cash EPS 16.8 20.7 28.0 15.9

BV 136.2 144.6 143.7 145.8

DPS 0.8 0.9 0.0 0.0

Cash Per Share 13.9 24.0 8.7 2.8

Operating Ratios

EBITDA Margin (%) 8.4 8.5 11.1 8.7

PBT Margin (%) 1.8 2.3 2.3 0.6

PAT Margin (%) 0.7 1.2 1.4 0.4

Inventory days 92.9 109.8 80.8 95.0

Debtor days 14.6 16.4 9.9 12.0

Creditor days 107.6 94.0 66.9 105.7

Return Ratios (%)RoE 2.4 4.5 8.3 1.6

RoCE 7.7 7.3 15.9 12.3

RoIC 1.1 1.7 3.2 1.1

Valuation Ratios (x) (annualised)

P/E 46.6 23.5 12.9 63.9

EV / EBITDA 8.7 9.3 7.3 7.6

EV / Net Sales 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5

Market Cap / Sales 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Price to Book Value 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0

Solvency Ratios

Debt/EBITDA 5.3 6.6 3.0 2.5

Debt / Equity 1.6 2.2 2.0 0.9

Current Ratio 2.9 3.3 2.4 1.8

Quick Ratio 1.6 2.0 1.2 0.8


* -Numbers for CY12E (18 months) are for core retail business and FY14E (15 months) is projected excl. Pantaloon format and hence not comparable with previous years Also, all the

growth numbers are indicated on an annualised basis


6/8


Company Description

Future Retail (FRL), the largest domestic retailer with operations spread

over 14.1 mn sq ft, has a presence in multiple retail formats. The

company commenced its retail operations in 1997 by opening its flagship

department store Pantaloons. Over the years, the company has

diversified into various formats ranging from hypermarkets (Big Bazaar)and supermarkets (Food Bazaar) to electronic stores (eZone), home

decoration stores (HomeTown), house of brands (Central), premium

foods (Food Hall), apparel (Brand Factory), sports related (Planet Sports)

etc. In May 2012, the company decided to sell its flagship Pantaloon

format to Aditya Birla Nuvo. The company is also considering

restructuring its verticals. It plans to create three separate entities, one

each for its fashion business, value retailing formats and foods business.

Exhibit 10:Recommendation History

100

150

200

250

300

Feb-13Jan-13Nov-12Oct-12Sep-12Jul-12Jun-12Apr-12Mar-12

Price Target Price


Exhibit 11:Recent ReleasesDate Event CMP Target Price Rating

24-Jul-12 Company Update 175 248 BUY

9-Aug-12 Q4CY12 Result Update 152 248 BUY

10-Sep-12 Quick Comment 144 248 BUY

8-Oct-12 Q5CY12 Preview 215 248 BUY

12-Nov-12 Q5CY12 Result Update 198 248 BUY

11-Dec-12 Retail Sector Update 230 256 BUY

8-Jan-13 Q6CY12 Preview 261 256 HOLD Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research


7/8


Exhibit 12:The road ahead

9,7

87

12,

226

20,

186

13,

803

82667

1,033 1,1942,243

142 55276

6.5

11.9

2.4

3.3

-

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000

17,500

20,000

22,500

FY10 FY11 CY12E* FY14E*

|

crore

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

|

Net Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS (RHS)


* - Numbers for CY12E and FY14E are projected for core retail business only and, hence, not comparable with

previous years. All projections are made excluding Pantaloon format

Shareholding Pattern

43.7

43.7

43.7

44.2

22.4

22.0

22.0 2

5.9

11.9

11.3

14.3

12.6

22.1

23.1

20.0

17.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13

(%)

Promoters FIIs DIIs Public


ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Retail)CMP M Cap

(|) TP(|) Rating (| C r) FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15E Y13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15E

Pantaloon Retail (PANRET)* 200 256 Buy 4,527 6.6 2.0 9.8 30.1 99.0 20.4 11.1 9.1 8.0 6.8 13.5 11.8 4.7 2.2 8.3

Shoppers Stop (SHOSTO) 419 435 Hold 3,474 -0.6 3.9 6.2 NA 106.1 67.1 39.2 26.9 18.1 2.1 6.0 11.8 -0.9 6.1 8.9

Titan Industries (TITIND) 250 319 Buy 22,199 8.2 10.6 13.3 30.6 23.6 18.8 23.2 17.3 13.6 49.4 48.9 47.2 37.1 36.0 34.4

Sector / Company

RoE (%)EPS (|) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoCE (%)

* - numbers are for FY11, CY12E and FY14E


8/8

ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 8

CICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns

ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them

as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional

arget price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.

Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;

Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;

Hold: Up to +/-10%;

Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey Head Research [email protected] Research Desk,ICICI Securities Limited,1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,Road No. 7, MIDC,Andheri (East)

Mumbai 400 093

[email protected]

We /I, Bharat Chhoda MBA (FINANCE) Dhvani Modi MBA (FINANCE)research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report

ccurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific

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idirect_futureretail_q1fy14

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