identifying the population segments most likely to cycle

June 2004 Tim Ryley - Lancaster seminar 1

Identifying the population segments most likely to cycle

Tim Ryley

Transport Research InstituteNapier University


INTRODUCTION Increased motor car dependency Problems associated with motor

car Cycling re-emerged on UK &

Edinburgh transport policy Edinburgh suitable for cycling Will people change?


INTRODUCTIONPart of PhD – which has 2 objectives: Identify population segments most likely to

use non-motorised transport Develop methodology to model individual

travel behaviour & likelihood to use non-motorised transport

Focusing on 1st objective & cycling aspects


DATA COLLECTION Data collection 1: secondary data

from Scottish Household Survey - 2,910 households in Edinburgh collected 1999-2000

Data collection 2: extensive travel behaviour survey of 997 households in West Edinburgh July 2003


SCOTTISH HOUSEHOLD SURVEY(SHS) Sample of 2,910 households Ten population segments were

produced using cluster analysis Transport availability was linked to

the segments Travel behaviour was examined

using SPSS Answer Tree


SHS FINDINGS Key life stages identified of gaining

employment, having children & retiring

Small proportion (7%) of sample had bicycle available without competition from motor car

Of 10 population segments, students had greatest propensity to cycle


SHS FINDINGS Cycling previous week – minority

that cycle (6%) tend to be utility or leisure cyclists

Journey to work – speed & convenience mentioned for all modes, exercise key advantage for non-motorised transport


WEST EDINBURGHHOUSEHOLD SURVEY Call & post method along transport

corridor Four postcode sectors - Dalry to Currie Sample of 997 questionnaires Socio-economic, transport availability,

journey & attitudinal variables Two stated preference (SP)

experiments: cycle to work, general walk or car


HOUSEHOLD SURVEY CYCLING STATISTICS 42% households had at least one

adult bicycle available 18% respondents cycled at least

once a month (5% cycled “most days”)

3% of those in employment cycled to work


ATTITUDINAL STATEMENTS Local cycling facility improvements

low on favoured transport policy measures

Off-road cycle lanes more popular than those on-road

53% respondents agreed “safety fears of traffic prevent them from cycling more often in Edinburgh”


ATTITUDINAL STATEMENTS Responses to cycling statements

strongly segmented by gender More men currently cycled Barriers to cycling were greater for

women, particularly safety from traffic fears but also topography and weather


SP - CYCLE TO WORK? SP for 620 who travel to work by car /

bus / walk Most 422 (68%) would never consider

cycling, trip too far or cannot cycle 198 respondents – models yet to be run 4 SP variables for 9 games: journey

time, cost (pay to cycle), destination facilities, route

Extra qualitative variables: choosing mode & reasons not cycle


CONCLUSIONS Cycling is a minority activity Exercise is an important advantage

to stress Policy measures need to emphasise

both utility & leisure cycle routes Safety main deterrent to cycling Gender-targeted marketing

strategy

identifying the population segments most likely to cycle

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