Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4 2010 pp 249ndash256 doi 105367oa20100015 249

Identifying future risks to UKagricultural cropproduction

Putting climate change incontextJerry Knox Joe Morris and Tim Hess

Abstract Internationally agriculture is widely regarded as one of the sectors atmost risk from a changing climate This is due to the impact of increasedtemperatures reduced rainfall and increased frequency of extreme events not onlyin the tropics but also in temperate environments In the UK growers also face arange of lsquonon-climatersquo risks which it is often argued present a potentially greaterand more immediate threat to sustainable food production than climate change Thispaper highlights the climate and non-climate impacts on crop production theadaptation options and the institutional and regulatory barriers to their uptake byfarmers It concludes that there are likely to be both positive impacts (for exampleyield gains) and negative impacts (for example increased water stress) Either waythere will be a need for new investments in adaptive management and technologyincluding new collaborations between the public and private sectors to enable UKagriculture to respond to the potential effects of climate change

Keywords adaptation crop food security impact rainfall policy yield UK

Jerry Knox is a Principal Research Fellow in Irrigation and Water Resources with the Department ofSustainable Systems Cranfield University Bedford MK43 0AL UK E-mail jknoxcranfieldacukJoe Morris and Tim Hess are with the Department of Natural Resources Cranfield UniversityBedford UK

Although UK agriculture accounts for a relatively smallproportion of the national economy and employment itoccupies almost 75 of the total land area (Angus et al2009) It is strategically important in the provision of foodndash including both cropping (arable horticulture) andlivestock (beef dairying pigs poultry) ndash and providesover half of all food consumed in the UK (Defra 2010a)As in many countries UK agriculture has amultifunctional role sitting at the interface between thenatural environment and society whilst also contributingto a range of environmental services including landscapeenhancement leisure and recreation and the provision ofnon-food raw materials As agriculture involves themanipulation of natural ecosystems it is particularlyvulnerable to climate change But because of theinteractions and feedbacks that exist between agriculture

the environment and society any risk assessments ofagriculture are notoriously difficult In the futureproducing food sustainably in a changing and uncertainclimate will clearly be a high priority (Defra 2010b) butclimate change is just one of a number of stresses onagriculture and responses to the threat of climate changeneed to be sensitive to ecosystems and to the diversity ofbenefits that agriculture provides and not just to foodproduction

Recent concerns regarding future global food shortageshave raised questions about food security at global andnational scales (IAASTD 2009a) The UK governmentseeks to achieve lsquofood securityrsquo by guaranteeing house-holds access to affordable nutritious food (Defra 2010b)UK agriculture along with the food industry as a wholeis charged with lsquoensuring food security through a strong

250 Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

UK agriculture and international trade links with EU andglobal partners which support developing economiesrsquo(Defra 2010b) In this regard it is required to beinternationally competitive whether it is delivering todomestic or international food markets Climate changecould affect not only the relative productivity of UKagriculture but also its competitive position ininternational markets

The aim of this paper is to highlight the potentialimpacts of climate change and other exogenous factors onUK crop production including the most importantenvironmental economic technological and societalimpacts both negative and positive The range ofadaptations available to growers and the barriers to theiruptake are then briefly described Because of the diversecomposition of agriculture we are concerned here withthe sectors that relate only to food crop productionincluding arable field vegetables (including root crops)and horticultural cropping The lsquonon-foodrsquo productionelements namely forestry fibre and biofuels and thespecific case of livestock are excluded but readersinterested in these sectors are referred to assessments byRead et al (2009) and Moran et al (2009) respectively

Climate risks to crop production

Internationally agriculture is widely regarded as one ofthe sectors likely to be most impacted by climate change(Falloon and Betts 2009) and UK agriculture is noexception As a biological system the driving force incrop production is photosynthesis which is primarilydependent on the levels of incoming solar radiationHowever the production potential set by radiation is alsoinfluenced by temperature and water availabilitytechnology fertilizer and crop losses (Olesen and Bindi2002) Outdoor crops grown in the UK are particularlysensitive to changes in climate both directly from changesin rainfall and temperature and indirectly since anychanges in climate will also impact on the agriculturalpotential of soils by modifying soil water balances Thisaffects the availability of water to plants and impacts onother land management practices (for exampletrafficability for seedbed preparation sprayingharvesting) The projected increases in atmospheric CO2

concentration (Jenkins et al 2009) will also have directimpacts on crop growth by increasing the resourceefficiencies for radiation water and nitrogen (Kang et al2009 Daccache et al 2010) As a consequence for mostcrops grown in northern Europe the impacts of climatechange with warmer temperatures and elevated CO2

levels are expected to result in more favourable growingconditions (Olesen and Bindi 2002) although of coursethere will also be negative consequences which will varyspatially and temporally

Agroclimate impactsInformation on the latest projections of climate change hasbeen produced by the UK Climate Impacts Programme(UKCIP) using an ensemble of general circulation models(GCM) and emissions scenarios developed by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Jenkins etal 2009) Using this climatology the projected changes insummer (April to September) rainfall and reference

evapotranspiration (ETo) ndash the main climate drivers ofproduction ndash and potential soil moisture deficit (PSMD) auseful aridity index for England and Wales for the 2050s(high emissions scenario) have been modelled andmapped (Figure 1) The maps show that for large tracts ofeastern central and southern England where agriculturalcropping is concentrated summer rainfall is expected toreduce by between 10 and 15 Assuming current averagesummer evapotranspiration (ET) rates of 3 mmday theprojected future increases in ETo are also around 10ndash15By combining these two variables increases in aridityfrom the current baseline of 20ndash30 are expected Thiscould drive production from the water-stressed areas ofeast and south-east England towards the north and westwhere growing conditions will be less constrained by soilmoisture

Crop yield and quality impactsThe changes in agroclimate could directly impact on theway UK agricultural crops develop grow and yield Therecould also be many indirect effects on production such aschanges in the distribution of pests and diseases and eventhe loss of agricultural land in some parts of the UK dueto saltwater intrusion and flooding from sea level rise (forexample the Washlands East Suffolk) Climate changecould thus aggravate the effects on crops of stresses suchas heat drought salinity and submergence in water(IPCC 2007)

In the UK the two most important impacts are likely tobe changes in productivity (yield and quality) and landsuitability which will affect the viability of existingrainfed crops and create opportunities for new crop typesA summary of reported impacts on potential yields forselected crops is given in Table 1 Of course these assumeoptimal production with non-limiting conditions relatingto fertilizer and water availability which themselvescould constrain future production due to increased energycosts and demand for water resources Although the dataare based on different GCMs and emissions scenariosthey all demonstrate a positive impact of climate changeon potential yields varying from 13ndash16 for potatoes to15ndash23 for wheat It is also important to remember thatfor crops such as wheat technological improvementsalone have the potential to deliver significant yieldincreases over the next century irrespective of climatechange (Silvester-Bradley et al 2005)

Table 1 Summary of reported changes in potential yield forselected UK crops in the arable and field-scale sectors

Crop type Projected changes Emissions scenario Sourcein potential yield and time slice

Wheat +15 to +23 HadCM2 Richter and2050s medium high Semenov (2005)

Sugar beet +14 to +20 tha UKCIP02 HadRM3 Richter et al2050s low and high (2006)

Potatoes +13 to +16 UKCP09 HadCM3 Daccache et al2050s low and high (2010)

251Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

Figure 1 Projected future changes in rainfall () evapotranspiration (ETo mm) and potential soil moisture deficit (mm) in England andWales from the baseline (1961ndash90) to the 2050s for a high UKCP09 emissions scenario Change data () relate to the summer period(April to Sept)

Annual rainfall(mmyear)

lt 550

551ndash650

651ndash750

751ndash850

851ndash1000

1001ndash1200

1201ndash1400

gt 1600

Rain variation()

gt ndash15ndash15ndash ndash125ndash125ndash ndash10ndash10ndash ndash75lt ndash75

Reference evapotranspiration(mmyear)

lt 475

476ndash500

501ndash525

526ndash575

576ndash600

601ndash625

626ndash650

gt 651

PSMD (mm)

lt 100101ndash125126ndash150151ndash175176ndash200201ndash225226ndash250251ndash275gt 276

lt 2021ndash4041ndash6061ndash80gt 81

PSMDmax change (mm)

ETo variation (mmday)

016ndash018019ndash020021ndash022023ndash024025ndash026

kilometres

kilometres

kilometres

kilometres

kilometres

kilometres

252 Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

The projected warmer temperatures would generallyallow crops to be grown further north or at higheraltitudes and for longer periods in the same locationHowever an increase in summer temperature wouldinfluence a host of other factors including the range ofnativealien pests and diseases with which farmers mighthave to contend It would increase the probability ofdamage to vulnerable crops (for example wheat andsalads) at extreme temperatures enable greater cropdiversification and result in a general lengthening of thegrowing season A longer growing season in southernEngland may also lead to increased cultivation ofcontinental crops such as maize sunflowers navy beanssoya lupins and grapevines High summer temperaturesat critical growth stages could also have a major impacton yield especially if they occur around flowering andseed development stages when their effect is translatedinto crop quality losses Research suggests that theresponse to increased temperatures in field vegetablecrops is likely to be positive whilst salad and calabresecrops may suffer (Collier et al 2008) Reductions in winterchilling essential for inducing bud break could also affectthe viability of top fruit production whilst the increasedrisk of water stress will impact on the yield and quality ofsoft fruit (Else and Atkinson 2010)

Irrigation is thus likely to become more important bothon existing irrigated crops and on other historicallyrainfed crops such as wheat in which growth is likely tobe affected by increasing levels of water stress and thegreater inter-annual variability in climate (Richter andSemeneov 2005 Knox et al 2010) Fifty-five per cent ofpotato and vegetable production is currently incatchments defined by the Environment Agency as beinglsquoover-abstractedrsquo (Hess et al 2011) In order to maintainthe premium-quality supplies demanded bysupermarkets those crops that are currently irrigated mayrequire greater irrigation depths and those that werepreviously rainfed are likely to need irrigating for qualityassurance (Knox et al 2009) With the increased likelihoodof abstraction restrictions in dry summers in east andsouth-east England there may be a gradual northwardshift in production of water-intensive crops such aspotatoes and field-scale vegetables to areas with suitableland and available water supplies Irrigation of grasswhich had been declining fast (Weatherhead 2006)may become more viable to sustain livestock stockinglevels although where water is available arable cropsare likely to take priority especially in lowland areas(Rounsevell and Reay 2009) The economics ofirrigation will depend however on the value and hencelsquopricersquo of water in other uses which could increase ifclimate change affects the balance of water demand andsupply

It is also important to remember that changes inclimate could impact not only on summer growingconditions ndash but increases in winter rainfall could alsocreate new problems for managing soils andwaterlogging Excess soil water could reduce the load-bearing strength of soils to carry heavy machineryrestricting the period for harvesting and cultivations inlate summer New investments may also be required forupgrading drainage systems to cope with higher rainfallintensities But for most crops it will not be the gradual

change in climate that causes problems but rather theunexpected extreme events that result in most crop andfinancial damage

Extreme eventsBy definition the impacts of changes in lsquoaveragersquo climatewill be more gradual and growers will adaptautonomously but the consequences of extreme weatheron crop production will be much more unpredictable anddamaging Evidence from the 1995 drought showed thatmost crop sectors in the UK fared well despite wide-spread negative media reports (Subak et al 2000) Wherenot constrained by water availability cereals and fieldvegetables flourished in the warmer drier weather Butconsumers were impacted because lower yields led tohigher prices so consumers (rather than producers)absorbed much of the negative impact of the warm dryyear on agriculture (Subak et al 2000)

A recent example of the economic impacts of extremeevents on agriculture is provided by Posthumus et al(2009) who investigated the impacts of the summer 2007floods when a series of exceptional rainfall events causedextensive flooding in South and East Yorkshire Worcester-shire Gloucestershire and Oxfordshire They estimatedthe total agricultural flood damage to be pound50 million basedon analyses from farm visits and interviews with floodedfarm owners in the regions affected The average flooddamage cost was pound1150 per flooded hectare whenweighted by land use which was then multiplied by thetotal flooded area (42000 ha) reported by the Environ-ment Agency The analysis reported that gt 90 of flooddamage costs were associated with losses of farm outputand additional production costs The remainder involveddamage to farm assets such as machinery property andinfrastructure Only about 5 of agricultural damagecosts were insured compared with (typically) 80 inother sectors The summer 2007 floods did not have amajor impact on UK food supply possibly because muchof the high-value agriculture in East Anglia wasunaffected however they probably contributed tofurther price increases during a year of generalcommodity deficit at the global scale As 57 ofgrade 1 agricultural land in England is on floodplains(Morris et al 2009) there is potential for increasedflooding to have significant impacts on UK foodproduction

In summary the impacts of a more unpredictable andwarming climate on UK cropping are likely to result in arange of threats and opportunities Increases intemperature and radiation coupled with elevated levels ofCO2 could increase crop yields but only to a point atwhich other management factors including water andnitrogen availability are not limiting But it will not be thegradual change in climate that will impact on growersbut rather the greater annual variability of climate andfrequency of extreme events (flooding droughtsheatwaves) Any increase in the frequency of such eventswill have both an agronomic and economic impact onagriculture In this context climate change is likely toexacerbate production fluctuations and lead to the returnof buffer stocks and intervention buying ndash there are signsthat this phenomenon which was last seen in the 1930s isreoccurring Growers will also need to deal with an

253Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

Table 2 Summary of lsquonon-climatersquo risks to UK crop production grouped according to whether they are economic technological orenvironmental and off- or on-farm

Economic risks Environmental risks Technological risks

Off-farm

Impacts of European agro-economic policy and Low river flows limiting availability and Inadequate research and development ofCAP reform on business viability reliability of water for irrigation abstraction new technologies appropriate to UK

Impacts of instability in commodity markets at Environmental regulation (for example Birds farming conditionsglobal and European levels on UK crop prices and Habitats Directives) constraining Adoption and uptake of technological

Foreign exchange rates especially poundEuro and agricultural production advances lag behind EuropeanpoundUS$ ratios Imported or mutated indigenous plant diseases competitors

Supermarket pressures on the food supply chain Monoculture reduces biodiversity (increases Improved storage and transportCheap overseas food imports epidemic risks) technologies remove barriers to importsHigh costs of borrowing limiting investment in Fear of GMOs and novel technology Cross-contamination of geneticallynew technologies and mechanization Actual damage caused by GMOs and novel modified plant material

Reduced availability of loans and finance reduce technology Lack of investment in new research andinvestment and promote risk avoidance in Unidentified tipping points that lead to technology (resulting in reduceddecision making catastrophic failure of ecosystems such as competitiveness)

Higher UK taxes deter on-farm investment rapid soil loss disease epidemics Reduced number of people employedRising environmental costs associated with in the agricultural sector with a riskcharges for water and pollution of dislocation to urban areas

On-farm

Energy costs for crop production Soil degradation compaction (heavy machinery Reduced standards of land drainageRising labour costs and labour supply problems inappropriate management)salinity build-up (including flood defence)Rising environmental costs relating to meeting (excessive use of fertilizers) Inadequate knowledge transfer andsupermarket grower protocols Excessive use of pesticides and herbicides (risks understanding of new technologies

Rising costs of fertilizer (linked to energy costs) of soil air and water pollution affecting human that limit technology uptakeand seed and animal health and disrupting the preyndash Rising cost of energy on which technology

Reduced expenditure on flood defence and land predator equilibrium) is dependent (affecting irrigationdrainage infrastructure New diseases abstraction and machinery used in

agriculturefood processing)

increasing number of lsquonon-climatersquo risks both on- and off-farm as these may pose a much greater degree ofuncertainty for crop production

Non-climate risks to crop production

A summary of the main lsquonon-climatersquo risks are given inTable 2 grouped according to whether they are economicenvironmental or technological in nature recognizing thatthere will be overlaps These were identified viadiscussions with key informants in the agri-food industryincluding policy advisers practitioners (farmers)industry representatives (levy boards) and researchersThe majority occur lsquooff-farmrsquo and impact on growers viavarious national and European agroeconomic policyinterventions these include the increasing burden ofenvironmental regulations limitations in the availabilityof finance fluctuating exchange rates and the relativepower of supermarkets as these affect the operation ofmarkets including requirements for auditing and trace-ability The most significant economic impacts on-farmrelate to Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform as itcould affect farm income support compliance require-ments and incentives for environmentally sensitivefarming Rising production costs for water energy labourand fertilizer coupled with increasing risks associatedwith infrastructure damage due to flooding are othersources of economic risk Much depends on whether these

increased costs are offset by higher commodity pricesarising from strong global demand ndash the latest OECDndashFAO (2010) forecast is that average crop prices over thenext 10 years will be 15ndash40 higher in real terms relativeto 1997ndash2006 The main environmental impacts off-farmrelate to changes in water availability due to low surfacewater flows and groundwater levels increasing demandsfor water from other sectors increasing environmentalregulation and abstraction control and the risksassociated with genetically modified organism (GMO)cultivation

The on-farm risks relate mainly to the control of the useof pesticides and fertilizers and their consequent impactson local environments via diffuse water pollution plusthe risks of new disease and poor soil management Themain technological risks off-farm are related toinsufficient RampD investment in agriculture (Royal Society2009) coupled with a lag in technological uptakecompared with the UKrsquos European neighbours A declinein the capacity of skills in UK agriculture as well as thenumber of people willing to work on the land are alsoconstraints (Spedding 2009) common to other parts ofEurope and North America (IAASTD 2009b) On-farmtechnological risks relate to the observed widespreaddeterioration in maintenance of land drains inadequatestaff training and the rising costs of energy on which newtechnologies are dependent

In addition there is a raft of international drivers that

254 Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

will affect UK agriculture including the consequences forworld trade affecting both demand for and supply andprices of agricultural commodities in global and regionalmarkets and an increased volatility of market conditionsThere are also the actions being taken by governments(including protectionism) to address climate changeeffects ndash with consequences for agricultural marketsThere is likely to be greater instability in internationalfood and energy prices affecting fuel costs and fertilizeruse plus greater global water scarcity with consequentimpacts on food production especially in relation to foodexports to the UK from southern Europe (Yang et al 2007)Other international risks include

bull Agri-support funds for competitors for exampleEuropean funds for the modernization of southernEuropean irrigation schemes could provide competitiveadvantage over UK growers

bull The conversion of agricultural land from foodproduction to production of biofuel and raw materialsthe use of agricultural food commodities (such aswheat or sugarcane) for biofuels rather than for humanconsumption could impact on UK food imports andprices

bull Internationally agreed greenhouse gas (GHG)mitigation policies may inadvertently affect agriculturethrough for example policies to reduce energy usewhich will impact on fertilizer production

bull Migration climate change could increase the inwardflux of migrants from drought-affected areas in NorthAfrica and southern Europe northwards towardsclimatically lsquosafe havensrsquo such as the UK with possibleimpacts on local demand for land for housing food andnatural resources

There are also likely to be societal factors such as publicand political resistance to the use of GMOs that couldhelp to adapt to environmental change changing dietarypreferences towards healthy eating via for example theFood Standards Agency lsquoEatwell Platersquo campaignincreasing demand for year-round fresh suppliesfavouring food imports and competition for land andwater for development and non-agricultural uses such asnature conservation and recreation

Farmer responses and adaptation

It may be possible to increase production under climatechange if farmers can exploit longer growing seasonsthrough the use of longer duration varieties or sequentialplanting Such production opportunities may decline asclimate change becomes more extreme requiringadaptation to more prolonged and frequent droughtschanges in rainfall distribution more storms and otherextreme weather events increased and changing pestloads and changes in soil water balances (Sugden et al2008) A selection of the most feasible adaptationmeasures for UK growers includes

bull changing sowing and harvest dates to cope withwarmer springs and higher temperatures ndash forexample earlier sowing and later harvest tocompensate for drought-related losses on light soils(Richter et al 2006)

bull improvements in seed and crop storage to deal withchanges in moisture and temperature

bull switching from spring to winter cereal productionbull plant breeding for increased drought and flood

tolerance and pest resistancebull building high-flowwinter storage reservoirs to cope

with reduced availability and reliability of summerriver flows

bull investments in new technologies to improve water andenergy efficiency

bull soil index mapping and precision farming to applyvariable N P and K to fields to reduce diffusepollution

bull diversification of landholdings to extend crop rotationsand to work towards more geographically spreadcropping schedules

bull upgrading drainage systems to cope with higherrainfall intensities

bull adopting rainwater harvesting water recyclingand organic and artificial mulching to reduce wateruse

bull changing crop scheduling programmes with multiplecropping (for example of salads) to utilize extendedgrowing seasons

bull developing international links in the food supply chainndash many agribusinesses now have a European presenceto provide greater flexibility and an extended seasonfor food supply and

bull individual and collaborative actions working locally toprotect natural resources (Leathes et al 2008)

Small businesses and family farms with limited capacityto adapt will be most vulnerable Conversely largehorticultural agribusinesses with high investment capitalat stake may select risk-averse options that minimize thelsquoregretrsquo under a range of possible future outcomes (forexample high-flow storage reservoirs) Whilst suchinvestments may be marginally beneficial now theybecome more attractive if the value of longer-termresilience and security is taken into account Some cropsectors such as salad and soft fruit production may bemore vulnerable since they are highly seasonal anddependent on consumer demands and the weather Othercrops such as potatoes and field vegetables may be lessvulnerable as their consumption patterns are lesssensitive to the ambient weather Given the uncertaintyand long time scales most responses to climate changewill require combinations of adaptive management andtechnology Developing this adaptive capacity willinvolve a commitment of resources now by both theprivate and public sectors in order to enhance futureability to cope with the uncertain impacts of futureclimate change But for all these coping strategies thereare both barriers and enablers to adaptation as high-lighted below

Adaptation barriersAdaptation barriers include the following

bull a very high degree of short- to medium-termuncertainty in agricultural policy and marketsincluding speculative agricultural commodity trading

bull negative impacts of adaptation in other sectors ndash forexample the implementation of adaptation measures to

255Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

address the increased risks to urban areas from riverflooding using agricultural floodplain land forattenuation could impact on crop productivity and landvalue

bull land use restrictions for example due to EUregulations andor agri-environmental supportschemes could hamper crop diversification

bull inflexibility in the abstraction licensing regime maylimit the potential for water trading and allocation ofwater to high-value cropping

bull poor availability of finance and investment in researchand technology development

bull restrictions from planning regulations anddevelopment control

bull attempts to preserve lsquoexistingrsquo environmentsbull the negative impact of energy policies on food

production andbull risk of overseas food suppliers failing due to extreme

events for example food imports from southernEurope at risk

Adaptation enablersEnablers include

bull mechanisms and initiatives to promote improvedresource efficiency the converse of the aboveincluding supporting education and knowledgetransfer investments incentives property rightsbuilding capacity in the agriculture sector andgovernance systems

bull collaborative funding of science and technology toenhance adaptability to climate change

bull addressing market institutional and regulatory failurefor example by payments for environmental servicesand conservation of natural resources

bull water user associations providing opportunities forcollective action in natural resource management

bull tax breaks for example capital allowance schemes toinvest in adaptation measures and

bull legislative enablers such as the Flood and Water Act2010 which help promote adaptation by providingmore flexible regulation for abstraction licensing

Conclusion

The UK agricultural cropping sector faces a challengingperiod ahead balancing the need to increase productivitywhilst controlling spiralling farm costs particularly inrelation to energy Growers also need to demonstratecompliance with regulations associated withenvironmental protection food safety and biosecurity Inthis context coping with immediate economicenvironmental and technological pressures means thatfarmers are less inclined to give climate change thepriority it deserves as a key business risk Climate changehowever is likely to exacerbate many of the currentchallenges already facing the agri-food sector Clearly itpresents both threats and opportunities to UK cropproduction but the key to tackling climate change will bein adaptation ndash securing access to the relevant skillsresources and knowledge to increase productionefficiency improve management and embrace newtechnology

References

Angus A Burgess P J Morris J and Lingard J (2009)lsquoAgriculture and land use demand for and supply of agricul-tural commodities characteristics of farming and foodindustries and implications for land usersquo Land Use Policy Vol26 No 1001 pp S230ndashS242

Collier R Fellows J R Adams S R Semenov M and Thomas B(2008) lsquoVulnerability of horticultural crop production to extremeweather eventsrsquo Aspects of Applied Biology Vol 88 pp 3ndash14

Daccache A Knox J W Weatherhead E K and Stalham M A(2010) lsquoImpacts of climate change on irrigated potato produc-tion in a humid climatersquo Agricultural and Forest Meteorology(forthcoming)

Defra (2010a) UK Food Security Assessment Detailed AnalysisDefra London

Defra (2010b) Food 2030 Department for Environment Food andRural Affairs London

Else M and Atkinson C (2010) lsquoClimate change impacts on UKtop and soft fruit productionrsquo Outlook on Agriculture Vol 39 No4 (this issue)

Falloon P and Betts R (2009) lsquoClimate impacts on Europeanagriculture and water management in the context of adaptationand mitigation ndash the importance of an integrated approachrsquoScience of the Total Environment doi101016jscitotenv200905002

Hess T M Knox J W Kay M G and Weatherhead E K(2011) lsquoManaging the water footprint of irrigated food produc-tion in England and Walesrsquo in Hester R E and Harrison RM eds Issues in Environmental Science and Technology 31Sustainable Water Royal Society of Chemistry Cambridge

IAASTD (2009a) Agriculture at the Cross Roads Global ReportInternational Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge Science andTechnology for Development Island Press Washington DC

IAASTD (2009b) Agriculture at the Cross Roads Europe and NorthAmerica Regional Report International Assessment of AgriculturalKnowledge Science and Technology for Development Island PressWashington DC

IPCC (2007) lsquoClimate change 2007 synthesis reportrsquo in PachauriR K and Reisinger A eds Contribution of Working Groups I IIand III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change IPCC Geneva

Jenkins G J Murphy J M Sexton D S Lowe J A Jones Pand Kilsby C G (2009) UK Climate Projections Briefing ReportMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter

Kang Y Khan S and Ma X (2009) lsquoClimate change impacts oncrop yield crop water productivity and food security ndash areviewrsquo Progress in Natural Science Vol 19 pp 1665ndash1674

Knox J W Weatherhead E K Rodriacuteguez-Diacuteaz J A and KayM G (2009) lsquoDeveloping a strategy to improve irrigationefficiency in a temperate climate a case study in EnglandrsquoOutlook on Agriculture Vol 38 No 4 pp 303ndash309

Knox J W Rodriguez-Diaz J A Weatherhead E K and KayM G (2010) lsquoDevelopment of a water strategy for horticulturein England and Walesrsquo Journal of Horticultural Science andBiotechnology Vol 85 No 2 pp 89ndash93

Leathes W Knox J W Kay M G Trawick P and Rodriguez-Diaz J A (2008) lsquoDeveloping UK farmersrsquo institutionalcapacity to defend their water rights and effectively managelimited water resourcesrsquo Irrigation and Drainage Vol 57 No 3pp 322ndash331

Moran D Topp K Wall E and Wreford A (2009) ClimateChange Impacts on the Livestock Sector Final Report AC0307 SACResearch Edinburgh

Morris J Posthumus H Hess T M Gowing D J G andRouquette J R (2009) lsquoWatery land the management oflowland floodplains in Englandrsquo in Winter M and Lobley Meds What is Land For The Food Fuel and Climate Change DebateEarthscan London

OECDndashFAO (2010) Agricultural Outlook 2010ndash2019 HighlightsOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentParis and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations Rome

251Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

Figure 1 Projected future changes in rainfall () evapotranspiration (ETo mm) and potential soil moisture deficit (mm) in England andWales from the baseline (1961ndash90) to the 2050s for a high UKCP09 emissions scenario Change data () relate to the summer period(April to Sept)

Annual rainfall(mmyear)

lt 550

551ndash650

651ndash750

751ndash850

851ndash1000

1001ndash1200

1201ndash1400

gt 1600

Rain variation()

gt ndash15ndash15ndash ndash125ndash125ndash ndash10ndash10ndash ndash75lt ndash75

Reference evapotranspiration(mmyear)

lt 475

476ndash500

501ndash525

526ndash575

576ndash600

601ndash625

626ndash650

gt 651

PSMD (mm)

lt 100101ndash125126ndash150151ndash175176ndash200201ndash225226ndash250251ndash275gt 276

lt 2021ndash4041ndash6061ndash80gt 81

PSMDmax change (mm)

ETo variation (mmday)

016ndash018019ndash020021ndash022023ndash024025ndash026

kilometres

kilometres

kilometres

kilometres

kilometres

kilometres

252 Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

The projected warmer temperatures would generallyallow crops to be grown further north or at higheraltitudes and for longer periods in the same locationHowever an increase in summer temperature wouldinfluence a host of other factors including the range ofnativealien pests and diseases with which farmers mighthave to contend It would increase the probability ofdamage to vulnerable crops (for example wheat andsalads) at extreme temperatures enable greater cropdiversification and result in a general lengthening of thegrowing season A longer growing season in southernEngland may also lead to increased cultivation ofcontinental crops such as maize sunflowers navy beanssoya lupins and grapevines High summer temperaturesat critical growth stages could also have a major impacton yield especially if they occur around flowering andseed development stages when their effect is translatedinto crop quality losses Research suggests that theresponse to increased temperatures in field vegetablecrops is likely to be positive whilst salad and calabresecrops may suffer (Collier et al 2008) Reductions in winterchilling essential for inducing bud break could also affectthe viability of top fruit production whilst the increasedrisk of water stress will impact on the yield and quality ofsoft fruit (Else and Atkinson 2010)

Irrigation is thus likely to become more important bothon existing irrigated crops and on other historicallyrainfed crops such as wheat in which growth is likely tobe affected by increasing levels of water stress and thegreater inter-annual variability in climate (Richter andSemeneov 2005 Knox et al 2010) Fifty-five per cent ofpotato and vegetable production is currently incatchments defined by the Environment Agency as beinglsquoover-abstractedrsquo (Hess et al 2011) In order to maintainthe premium-quality supplies demanded bysupermarkets those crops that are currently irrigated mayrequire greater irrigation depths and those that werepreviously rainfed are likely to need irrigating for qualityassurance (Knox et al 2009) With the increased likelihoodof abstraction restrictions in dry summers in east andsouth-east England there may be a gradual northwardshift in production of water-intensive crops such aspotatoes and field-scale vegetables to areas with suitableland and available water supplies Irrigation of grasswhich had been declining fast (Weatherhead 2006)may become more viable to sustain livestock stockinglevels although where water is available arable cropsare likely to take priority especially in lowland areas(Rounsevell and Reay 2009) The economics ofirrigation will depend however on the value and hencelsquopricersquo of water in other uses which could increase ifclimate change affects the balance of water demand andsupply

It is also important to remember that changes inclimate could impact not only on summer growingconditions ndash but increases in winter rainfall could alsocreate new problems for managing soils andwaterlogging Excess soil water could reduce the load-bearing strength of soils to carry heavy machineryrestricting the period for harvesting and cultivations inlate summer New investments may also be required forupgrading drainage systems to cope with higher rainfallintensities But for most crops it will not be the gradual

change in climate that causes problems but rather theunexpected extreme events that result in most crop andfinancial damage

Extreme eventsBy definition the impacts of changes in lsquoaveragersquo climatewill be more gradual and growers will adaptautonomously but the consequences of extreme weatheron crop production will be much more unpredictable anddamaging Evidence from the 1995 drought showed thatmost crop sectors in the UK fared well despite wide-spread negative media reports (Subak et al 2000) Wherenot constrained by water availability cereals and fieldvegetables flourished in the warmer drier weather Butconsumers were impacted because lower yields led tohigher prices so consumers (rather than producers)absorbed much of the negative impact of the warm dryyear on agriculture (Subak et al 2000)

A recent example of the economic impacts of extremeevents on agriculture is provided by Posthumus et al(2009) who investigated the impacts of the summer 2007floods when a series of exceptional rainfall events causedextensive flooding in South and East Yorkshire Worcester-shire Gloucestershire and Oxfordshire They estimatedthe total agricultural flood damage to be pound50 million basedon analyses from farm visits and interviews with floodedfarm owners in the regions affected The average flooddamage cost was pound1150 per flooded hectare whenweighted by land use which was then multiplied by thetotal flooded area (42000 ha) reported by the Environ-ment Agency The analysis reported that gt 90 of flooddamage costs were associated with losses of farm outputand additional production costs The remainder involveddamage to farm assets such as machinery property andinfrastructure Only about 5 of agricultural damagecosts were insured compared with (typically) 80 inother sectors The summer 2007 floods did not have amajor impact on UK food supply possibly because muchof the high-value agriculture in East Anglia wasunaffected however they probably contributed tofurther price increases during a year of generalcommodity deficit at the global scale As 57 ofgrade 1 agricultural land in England is on floodplains(Morris et al 2009) there is potential for increasedflooding to have significant impacts on UK foodproduction

In summary the impacts of a more unpredictable andwarming climate on UK cropping are likely to result in arange of threats and opportunities Increases intemperature and radiation coupled with elevated levels ofCO2 could increase crop yields but only to a point atwhich other management factors including water andnitrogen availability are not limiting But it will not be thegradual change in climate that will impact on growersbut rather the greater annual variability of climate andfrequency of extreme events (flooding droughtsheatwaves) Any increase in the frequency of such eventswill have both an agronomic and economic impact onagriculture In this context climate change is likely toexacerbate production fluctuations and lead to the returnof buffer stocks and intervention buying ndash there are signsthat this phenomenon which was last seen in the 1930s isreoccurring Growers will also need to deal with an

253Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

Table 2 Summary of lsquonon-climatersquo risks to UK crop production grouped according to whether they are economic technological orenvironmental and off- or on-farm

Economic risks Environmental risks Technological risks

Off-farm

Impacts of European agro-economic policy and Low river flows limiting availability and Inadequate research and development ofCAP reform on business viability reliability of water for irrigation abstraction new technologies appropriate to UK

Impacts of instability in commodity markets at Environmental regulation (for example Birds farming conditionsglobal and European levels on UK crop prices and Habitats Directives) constraining Adoption and uptake of technological

Foreign exchange rates especially poundEuro and agricultural production advances lag behind EuropeanpoundUS$ ratios Imported or mutated indigenous plant diseases competitors

Supermarket pressures on the food supply chain Monoculture reduces biodiversity (increases Improved storage and transportCheap overseas food imports epidemic risks) technologies remove barriers to importsHigh costs of borrowing limiting investment in Fear of GMOs and novel technology Cross-contamination of geneticallynew technologies and mechanization Actual damage caused by GMOs and novel modified plant material

Reduced availability of loans and finance reduce technology Lack of investment in new research andinvestment and promote risk avoidance in Unidentified tipping points that lead to technology (resulting in reduceddecision making catastrophic failure of ecosystems such as competitiveness)

Higher UK taxes deter on-farm investment rapid soil loss disease epidemics Reduced number of people employedRising environmental costs associated with in the agricultural sector with a riskcharges for water and pollution of dislocation to urban areas

On-farm

Energy costs for crop production Soil degradation compaction (heavy machinery Reduced standards of land drainageRising labour costs and labour supply problems inappropriate management)salinity build-up (including flood defence)Rising environmental costs relating to meeting (excessive use of fertilizers) Inadequate knowledge transfer andsupermarket grower protocols Excessive use of pesticides and herbicides (risks understanding of new technologies

Rising costs of fertilizer (linked to energy costs) of soil air and water pollution affecting human that limit technology uptakeand seed and animal health and disrupting the preyndash Rising cost of energy on which technology

Reduced expenditure on flood defence and land predator equilibrium) is dependent (affecting irrigationdrainage infrastructure New diseases abstraction and machinery used in

agriculturefood processing)

increasing number of lsquonon-climatersquo risks both on- and off-farm as these may pose a much greater degree ofuncertainty for crop production

Non-climate risks to crop production

A summary of the main lsquonon-climatersquo risks are given inTable 2 grouped according to whether they are economicenvironmental or technological in nature recognizing thatthere will be overlaps These were identified viadiscussions with key informants in the agri-food industryincluding policy advisers practitioners (farmers)industry representatives (levy boards) and researchersThe majority occur lsquooff-farmrsquo and impact on growers viavarious national and European agroeconomic policyinterventions these include the increasing burden ofenvironmental regulations limitations in the availabilityof finance fluctuating exchange rates and the relativepower of supermarkets as these affect the operation ofmarkets including requirements for auditing and trace-ability The most significant economic impacts on-farmrelate to Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform as itcould affect farm income support compliance require-ments and incentives for environmentally sensitivefarming Rising production costs for water energy labourand fertilizer coupled with increasing risks associatedwith infrastructure damage due to flooding are othersources of economic risk Much depends on whether these

increased costs are offset by higher commodity pricesarising from strong global demand ndash the latest OECDndashFAO (2010) forecast is that average crop prices over thenext 10 years will be 15ndash40 higher in real terms relativeto 1997ndash2006 The main environmental impacts off-farmrelate to changes in water availability due to low surfacewater flows and groundwater levels increasing demandsfor water from other sectors increasing environmentalregulation and abstraction control and the risksassociated with genetically modified organism (GMO)cultivation

The on-farm risks relate mainly to the control of the useof pesticides and fertilizers and their consequent impactson local environments via diffuse water pollution plusthe risks of new disease and poor soil management Themain technological risks off-farm are related toinsufficient RampD investment in agriculture (Royal Society2009) coupled with a lag in technological uptakecompared with the UKrsquos European neighbours A declinein the capacity of skills in UK agriculture as well as thenumber of people willing to work on the land are alsoconstraints (Spedding 2009) common to other parts ofEurope and North America (IAASTD 2009b) On-farmtechnological risks relate to the observed widespreaddeterioration in maintenance of land drains inadequatestaff training and the rising costs of energy on which newtechnologies are dependent

In addition there is a raft of international drivers that

254 Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

will affect UK agriculture including the consequences forworld trade affecting both demand for and supply andprices of agricultural commodities in global and regionalmarkets and an increased volatility of market conditionsThere are also the actions being taken by governments(including protectionism) to address climate changeeffects ndash with consequences for agricultural marketsThere is likely to be greater instability in internationalfood and energy prices affecting fuel costs and fertilizeruse plus greater global water scarcity with consequentimpacts on food production especially in relation to foodexports to the UK from southern Europe (Yang et al 2007)Other international risks include

bull Agri-support funds for competitors for exampleEuropean funds for the modernization of southernEuropean irrigation schemes could provide competitiveadvantage over UK growers

bull The conversion of agricultural land from foodproduction to production of biofuel and raw materialsthe use of agricultural food commodities (such aswheat or sugarcane) for biofuels rather than for humanconsumption could impact on UK food imports andprices

bull Internationally agreed greenhouse gas (GHG)mitigation policies may inadvertently affect agriculturethrough for example policies to reduce energy usewhich will impact on fertilizer production

bull Migration climate change could increase the inwardflux of migrants from drought-affected areas in NorthAfrica and southern Europe northwards towardsclimatically lsquosafe havensrsquo such as the UK with possibleimpacts on local demand for land for housing food andnatural resources

There are also likely to be societal factors such as publicand political resistance to the use of GMOs that couldhelp to adapt to environmental change changing dietarypreferences towards healthy eating via for example theFood Standards Agency lsquoEatwell Platersquo campaignincreasing demand for year-round fresh suppliesfavouring food imports and competition for land andwater for development and non-agricultural uses such asnature conservation and recreation

Farmer responses and adaptation

It may be possible to increase production under climatechange if farmers can exploit longer growing seasonsthrough the use of longer duration varieties or sequentialplanting Such production opportunities may decline asclimate change becomes more extreme requiringadaptation to more prolonged and frequent droughtschanges in rainfall distribution more storms and otherextreme weather events increased and changing pestloads and changes in soil water balances (Sugden et al2008) A selection of the most feasible adaptationmeasures for UK growers includes

bull changing sowing and harvest dates to cope withwarmer springs and higher temperatures ndash forexample earlier sowing and later harvest tocompensate for drought-related losses on light soils(Richter et al 2006)

bull improvements in seed and crop storage to deal withchanges in moisture and temperature

bull switching from spring to winter cereal productionbull plant breeding for increased drought and flood

tolerance and pest resistancebull building high-flowwinter storage reservoirs to cope

with reduced availability and reliability of summerriver flows

bull investments in new technologies to improve water andenergy efficiency

bull soil index mapping and precision farming to applyvariable N P and K to fields to reduce diffusepollution

bull diversification of landholdings to extend crop rotationsand to work towards more geographically spreadcropping schedules

bull upgrading drainage systems to cope with higherrainfall intensities

bull adopting rainwater harvesting water recyclingand organic and artificial mulching to reduce wateruse

bull changing crop scheduling programmes with multiplecropping (for example of salads) to utilize extendedgrowing seasons

bull developing international links in the food supply chainndash many agribusinesses now have a European presenceto provide greater flexibility and an extended seasonfor food supply and

bull individual and collaborative actions working locally toprotect natural resources (Leathes et al 2008)

Small businesses and family farms with limited capacityto adapt will be most vulnerable Conversely largehorticultural agribusinesses with high investment capitalat stake may select risk-averse options that minimize thelsquoregretrsquo under a range of possible future outcomes (forexample high-flow storage reservoirs) Whilst suchinvestments may be marginally beneficial now theybecome more attractive if the value of longer-termresilience and security is taken into account Some cropsectors such as salad and soft fruit production may bemore vulnerable since they are highly seasonal anddependent on consumer demands and the weather Othercrops such as potatoes and field vegetables may be lessvulnerable as their consumption patterns are lesssensitive to the ambient weather Given the uncertaintyand long time scales most responses to climate changewill require combinations of adaptive management andtechnology Developing this adaptive capacity willinvolve a commitment of resources now by both theprivate and public sectors in order to enhance futureability to cope with the uncertain impacts of futureclimate change But for all these coping strategies thereare both barriers and enablers to adaptation as high-lighted below

Adaptation barriersAdaptation barriers include the following

bull a very high degree of short- to medium-termuncertainty in agricultural policy and marketsincluding speculative agricultural commodity trading

bull negative impacts of adaptation in other sectors ndash forexample the implementation of adaptation measures to

255Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

address the increased risks to urban areas from riverflooding using agricultural floodplain land forattenuation could impact on crop productivity and landvalue

bull land use restrictions for example due to EUregulations andor agri-environmental supportschemes could hamper crop diversification

bull inflexibility in the abstraction licensing regime maylimit the potential for water trading and allocation ofwater to high-value cropping

bull poor availability of finance and investment in researchand technology development

bull restrictions from planning regulations anddevelopment control

bull attempts to preserve lsquoexistingrsquo environmentsbull the negative impact of energy policies on food

production andbull risk of overseas food suppliers failing due to extreme

events for example food imports from southernEurope at risk

Adaptation enablersEnablers include

bull mechanisms and initiatives to promote improvedresource efficiency the converse of the aboveincluding supporting education and knowledgetransfer investments incentives property rightsbuilding capacity in the agriculture sector andgovernance systems

bull collaborative funding of science and technology toenhance adaptability to climate change

bull addressing market institutional and regulatory failurefor example by payments for environmental servicesand conservation of natural resources

bull water user associations providing opportunities forcollective action in natural resource management

bull tax breaks for example capital allowance schemes toinvest in adaptation measures and

bull legislative enablers such as the Flood and Water Act2010 which help promote adaptation by providingmore flexible regulation for abstraction licensing

Conclusion

The UK agricultural cropping sector faces a challengingperiod ahead balancing the need to increase productivitywhilst controlling spiralling farm costs particularly inrelation to energy Growers also need to demonstratecompliance with regulations associated withenvironmental protection food safety and biosecurity Inthis context coping with immediate economicenvironmental and technological pressures means thatfarmers are less inclined to give climate change thepriority it deserves as a key business risk Climate changehowever is likely to exacerbate many of the currentchallenges already facing the agri-food sector Clearly itpresents both threats and opportunities to UK cropproduction but the key to tackling climate change will bein adaptation ndash securing access to the relevant skillsresources and knowledge to increase productionefficiency improve management and embrace newtechnology

References

Angus A Burgess P J Morris J and Lingard J (2009)lsquoAgriculture and land use demand for and supply of agricul-tural commodities characteristics of farming and foodindustries and implications for land usersquo Land Use Policy Vol26 No 1001 pp S230ndashS242

Collier R Fellows J R Adams S R Semenov M and Thomas B(2008) lsquoVulnerability of horticultural crop production to extremeweather eventsrsquo Aspects of Applied Biology Vol 88 pp 3ndash14

Daccache A Knox J W Weatherhead E K and Stalham M A(2010) lsquoImpacts of climate change on irrigated potato produc-tion in a humid climatersquo Agricultural and Forest Meteorology(forthcoming)

Defra (2010a) UK Food Security Assessment Detailed AnalysisDefra London

Defra (2010b) Food 2030 Department for Environment Food andRural Affairs London

Else M and Atkinson C (2010) lsquoClimate change impacts on UKtop and soft fruit productionrsquo Outlook on Agriculture Vol 39 No4 (this issue)

Falloon P and Betts R (2009) lsquoClimate impacts on Europeanagriculture and water management in the context of adaptationand mitigation ndash the importance of an integrated approachrsquoScience of the Total Environment doi101016jscitotenv200905002

Hess T M Knox J W Kay M G and Weatherhead E K(2011) lsquoManaging the water footprint of irrigated food produc-tion in England and Walesrsquo in Hester R E and Harrison RM eds Issues in Environmental Science and Technology 31Sustainable Water Royal Society of Chemistry Cambridge

IAASTD (2009a) Agriculture at the Cross Roads Global ReportInternational Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge Science andTechnology for Development Island Press Washington DC

IAASTD (2009b) Agriculture at the Cross Roads Europe and NorthAmerica Regional Report International Assessment of AgriculturalKnowledge Science and Technology for Development Island PressWashington DC

IPCC (2007) lsquoClimate change 2007 synthesis reportrsquo in PachauriR K and Reisinger A eds Contribution of Working Groups I IIand III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change IPCC Geneva

Jenkins G J Murphy J M Sexton D S Lowe J A Jones Pand Kilsby C G (2009) UK Climate Projections Briefing ReportMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter

Kang Y Khan S and Ma X (2009) lsquoClimate change impacts oncrop yield crop water productivity and food security ndash areviewrsquo Progress in Natural Science Vol 19 pp 1665ndash1674

Knox J W Weatherhead E K Rodriacuteguez-Diacuteaz J A and KayM G (2009) lsquoDeveloping a strategy to improve irrigationefficiency in a temperate climate a case study in EnglandrsquoOutlook on Agriculture Vol 38 No 4 pp 303ndash309

Knox J W Rodriguez-Diaz J A Weatherhead E K and KayM G (2010) lsquoDevelopment of a water strategy for horticulturein England and Walesrsquo Journal of Horticultural Science andBiotechnology Vol 85 No 2 pp 89ndash93

Leathes W Knox J W Kay M G Trawick P and Rodriguez-Diaz J A (2008) lsquoDeveloping UK farmersrsquo institutionalcapacity to defend their water rights and effectively managelimited water resourcesrsquo Irrigation and Drainage Vol 57 No 3pp 322ndash331

Moran D Topp K Wall E and Wreford A (2009) ClimateChange Impacts on the Livestock Sector Final Report AC0307 SACResearch Edinburgh

Morris J Posthumus H Hess T M Gowing D J G andRouquette J R (2009) lsquoWatery land the management oflowland floodplains in Englandrsquo in Winter M and Lobley Meds What is Land For The Food Fuel and Climate Change DebateEarthscan London

OECDndashFAO (2010) Agricultural Outlook 2010ndash2019 HighlightsOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentParis and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations Rome

252 Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

The projected warmer temperatures would generallyallow crops to be grown further north or at higheraltitudes and for longer periods in the same locationHowever an increase in summer temperature wouldinfluence a host of other factors including the range ofnativealien pests and diseases with which farmers mighthave to contend It would increase the probability ofdamage to vulnerable crops (for example wheat andsalads) at extreme temperatures enable greater cropdiversification and result in a general lengthening of thegrowing season A longer growing season in southernEngland may also lead to increased cultivation ofcontinental crops such as maize sunflowers navy beanssoya lupins and grapevines High summer temperaturesat critical growth stages could also have a major impacton yield especially if they occur around flowering andseed development stages when their effect is translatedinto crop quality losses Research suggests that theresponse to increased temperatures in field vegetablecrops is likely to be positive whilst salad and calabresecrops may suffer (Collier et al 2008) Reductions in winterchilling essential for inducing bud break could also affectthe viability of top fruit production whilst the increasedrisk of water stress will impact on the yield and quality ofsoft fruit (Else and Atkinson 2010)

Irrigation is thus likely to become more important bothon existing irrigated crops and on other historicallyrainfed crops such as wheat in which growth is likely tobe affected by increasing levels of water stress and thegreater inter-annual variability in climate (Richter andSemeneov 2005 Knox et al 2010) Fifty-five per cent ofpotato and vegetable production is currently incatchments defined by the Environment Agency as beinglsquoover-abstractedrsquo (Hess et al 2011) In order to maintainthe premium-quality supplies demanded bysupermarkets those crops that are currently irrigated mayrequire greater irrigation depths and those that werepreviously rainfed are likely to need irrigating for qualityassurance (Knox et al 2009) With the increased likelihoodof abstraction restrictions in dry summers in east andsouth-east England there may be a gradual northwardshift in production of water-intensive crops such aspotatoes and field-scale vegetables to areas with suitableland and available water supplies Irrigation of grasswhich had been declining fast (Weatherhead 2006)may become more viable to sustain livestock stockinglevels although where water is available arable cropsare likely to take priority especially in lowland areas(Rounsevell and Reay 2009) The economics ofirrigation will depend however on the value and hencelsquopricersquo of water in other uses which could increase ifclimate change affects the balance of water demand andsupply

It is also important to remember that changes inclimate could impact not only on summer growingconditions ndash but increases in winter rainfall could alsocreate new problems for managing soils andwaterlogging Excess soil water could reduce the load-bearing strength of soils to carry heavy machineryrestricting the period for harvesting and cultivations inlate summer New investments may also be required forupgrading drainage systems to cope with higher rainfallintensities But for most crops it will not be the gradual

change in climate that causes problems but rather theunexpected extreme events that result in most crop andfinancial damage

Extreme eventsBy definition the impacts of changes in lsquoaveragersquo climatewill be more gradual and growers will adaptautonomously but the consequences of extreme weatheron crop production will be much more unpredictable anddamaging Evidence from the 1995 drought showed thatmost crop sectors in the UK fared well despite wide-spread negative media reports (Subak et al 2000) Wherenot constrained by water availability cereals and fieldvegetables flourished in the warmer drier weather Butconsumers were impacted because lower yields led tohigher prices so consumers (rather than producers)absorbed much of the negative impact of the warm dryyear on agriculture (Subak et al 2000)

A recent example of the economic impacts of extremeevents on agriculture is provided by Posthumus et al(2009) who investigated the impacts of the summer 2007floods when a series of exceptional rainfall events causedextensive flooding in South and East Yorkshire Worcester-shire Gloucestershire and Oxfordshire They estimatedthe total agricultural flood damage to be pound50 million basedon analyses from farm visits and interviews with floodedfarm owners in the regions affected The average flooddamage cost was pound1150 per flooded hectare whenweighted by land use which was then multiplied by thetotal flooded area (42000 ha) reported by the Environ-ment Agency The analysis reported that gt 90 of flooddamage costs were associated with losses of farm outputand additional production costs The remainder involveddamage to farm assets such as machinery property andinfrastructure Only about 5 of agricultural damagecosts were insured compared with (typically) 80 inother sectors The summer 2007 floods did not have amajor impact on UK food supply possibly because muchof the high-value agriculture in East Anglia wasunaffected however they probably contributed tofurther price increases during a year of generalcommodity deficit at the global scale As 57 ofgrade 1 agricultural land in England is on floodplains(Morris et al 2009) there is potential for increasedflooding to have significant impacts on UK foodproduction

In summary the impacts of a more unpredictable andwarming climate on UK cropping are likely to result in arange of threats and opportunities Increases intemperature and radiation coupled with elevated levels ofCO2 could increase crop yields but only to a point atwhich other management factors including water andnitrogen availability are not limiting But it will not be thegradual change in climate that will impact on growersbut rather the greater annual variability of climate andfrequency of extreme events (flooding droughtsheatwaves) Any increase in the frequency of such eventswill have both an agronomic and economic impact onagriculture In this context climate change is likely toexacerbate production fluctuations and lead to the returnof buffer stocks and intervention buying ndash there are signsthat this phenomenon which was last seen in the 1930s isreoccurring Growers will also need to deal with an

253Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

Table 2 Summary of lsquonon-climatersquo risks to UK crop production grouped according to whether they are economic technological orenvironmental and off- or on-farm

Economic risks Environmental risks Technological risks

Off-farm

Impacts of European agro-economic policy and Low river flows limiting availability and Inadequate research and development ofCAP reform on business viability reliability of water for irrigation abstraction new technologies appropriate to UK

Impacts of instability in commodity markets at Environmental regulation (for example Birds farming conditionsglobal and European levels on UK crop prices and Habitats Directives) constraining Adoption and uptake of technological

Foreign exchange rates especially poundEuro and agricultural production advances lag behind EuropeanpoundUS$ ratios Imported or mutated indigenous plant diseases competitors

Supermarket pressures on the food supply chain Monoculture reduces biodiversity (increases Improved storage and transportCheap overseas food imports epidemic risks) technologies remove barriers to importsHigh costs of borrowing limiting investment in Fear of GMOs and novel technology Cross-contamination of geneticallynew technologies and mechanization Actual damage caused by GMOs and novel modified plant material

Reduced availability of loans and finance reduce technology Lack of investment in new research andinvestment and promote risk avoidance in Unidentified tipping points that lead to technology (resulting in reduceddecision making catastrophic failure of ecosystems such as competitiveness)

Higher UK taxes deter on-farm investment rapid soil loss disease epidemics Reduced number of people employedRising environmental costs associated with in the agricultural sector with a riskcharges for water and pollution of dislocation to urban areas

On-farm

Energy costs for crop production Soil degradation compaction (heavy machinery Reduced standards of land drainageRising labour costs and labour supply problems inappropriate management)salinity build-up (including flood defence)Rising environmental costs relating to meeting (excessive use of fertilizers) Inadequate knowledge transfer andsupermarket grower protocols Excessive use of pesticides and herbicides (risks understanding of new technologies

Rising costs of fertilizer (linked to energy costs) of soil air and water pollution affecting human that limit technology uptakeand seed and animal health and disrupting the preyndash Rising cost of energy on which technology

Reduced expenditure on flood defence and land predator equilibrium) is dependent (affecting irrigationdrainage infrastructure New diseases abstraction and machinery used in

agriculturefood processing)

increasing number of lsquonon-climatersquo risks both on- and off-farm as these may pose a much greater degree ofuncertainty for crop production

Non-climate risks to crop production

A summary of the main lsquonon-climatersquo risks are given inTable 2 grouped according to whether they are economicenvironmental or technological in nature recognizing thatthere will be overlaps These were identified viadiscussions with key informants in the agri-food industryincluding policy advisers practitioners (farmers)industry representatives (levy boards) and researchersThe majority occur lsquooff-farmrsquo and impact on growers viavarious national and European agroeconomic policyinterventions these include the increasing burden ofenvironmental regulations limitations in the availabilityof finance fluctuating exchange rates and the relativepower of supermarkets as these affect the operation ofmarkets including requirements for auditing and trace-ability The most significant economic impacts on-farmrelate to Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform as itcould affect farm income support compliance require-ments and incentives for environmentally sensitivefarming Rising production costs for water energy labourand fertilizer coupled with increasing risks associatedwith infrastructure damage due to flooding are othersources of economic risk Much depends on whether these

increased costs are offset by higher commodity pricesarising from strong global demand ndash the latest OECDndashFAO (2010) forecast is that average crop prices over thenext 10 years will be 15ndash40 higher in real terms relativeto 1997ndash2006 The main environmental impacts off-farmrelate to changes in water availability due to low surfacewater flows and groundwater levels increasing demandsfor water from other sectors increasing environmentalregulation and abstraction control and the risksassociated with genetically modified organism (GMO)cultivation

The on-farm risks relate mainly to the control of the useof pesticides and fertilizers and their consequent impactson local environments via diffuse water pollution plusthe risks of new disease and poor soil management Themain technological risks off-farm are related toinsufficient RampD investment in agriculture (Royal Society2009) coupled with a lag in technological uptakecompared with the UKrsquos European neighbours A declinein the capacity of skills in UK agriculture as well as thenumber of people willing to work on the land are alsoconstraints (Spedding 2009) common to other parts ofEurope and North America (IAASTD 2009b) On-farmtechnological risks relate to the observed widespreaddeterioration in maintenance of land drains inadequatestaff training and the rising costs of energy on which newtechnologies are dependent

In addition there is a raft of international drivers that

254 Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

will affect UK agriculture including the consequences forworld trade affecting both demand for and supply andprices of agricultural commodities in global and regionalmarkets and an increased volatility of market conditionsThere are also the actions being taken by governments(including protectionism) to address climate changeeffects ndash with consequences for agricultural marketsThere is likely to be greater instability in internationalfood and energy prices affecting fuel costs and fertilizeruse plus greater global water scarcity with consequentimpacts on food production especially in relation to foodexports to the UK from southern Europe (Yang et al 2007)Other international risks include

bull Agri-support funds for competitors for exampleEuropean funds for the modernization of southernEuropean irrigation schemes could provide competitiveadvantage over UK growers

bull The conversion of agricultural land from foodproduction to production of biofuel and raw materialsthe use of agricultural food commodities (such aswheat or sugarcane) for biofuels rather than for humanconsumption could impact on UK food imports andprices

bull Internationally agreed greenhouse gas (GHG)mitigation policies may inadvertently affect agriculturethrough for example policies to reduce energy usewhich will impact on fertilizer production

bull Migration climate change could increase the inwardflux of migrants from drought-affected areas in NorthAfrica and southern Europe northwards towardsclimatically lsquosafe havensrsquo such as the UK with possibleimpacts on local demand for land for housing food andnatural resources

There are also likely to be societal factors such as publicand political resistance to the use of GMOs that couldhelp to adapt to environmental change changing dietarypreferences towards healthy eating via for example theFood Standards Agency lsquoEatwell Platersquo campaignincreasing demand for year-round fresh suppliesfavouring food imports and competition for land andwater for development and non-agricultural uses such asnature conservation and recreation

Farmer responses and adaptation

It may be possible to increase production under climatechange if farmers can exploit longer growing seasonsthrough the use of longer duration varieties or sequentialplanting Such production opportunities may decline asclimate change becomes more extreme requiringadaptation to more prolonged and frequent droughtschanges in rainfall distribution more storms and otherextreme weather events increased and changing pestloads and changes in soil water balances (Sugden et al2008) A selection of the most feasible adaptationmeasures for UK growers includes

bull changing sowing and harvest dates to cope withwarmer springs and higher temperatures ndash forexample earlier sowing and later harvest tocompensate for drought-related losses on light soils(Richter et al 2006)

bull improvements in seed and crop storage to deal withchanges in moisture and temperature

bull switching from spring to winter cereal productionbull plant breeding for increased drought and flood

tolerance and pest resistancebull building high-flowwinter storage reservoirs to cope

with reduced availability and reliability of summerriver flows

bull investments in new technologies to improve water andenergy efficiency

bull soil index mapping and precision farming to applyvariable N P and K to fields to reduce diffusepollution

bull diversification of landholdings to extend crop rotationsand to work towards more geographically spreadcropping schedules

bull upgrading drainage systems to cope with higherrainfall intensities

bull adopting rainwater harvesting water recyclingand organic and artificial mulching to reduce wateruse

bull changing crop scheduling programmes with multiplecropping (for example of salads) to utilize extendedgrowing seasons

bull developing international links in the food supply chainndash many agribusinesses now have a European presenceto provide greater flexibility and an extended seasonfor food supply and

bull individual and collaborative actions working locally toprotect natural resources (Leathes et al 2008)

Small businesses and family farms with limited capacityto adapt will be most vulnerable Conversely largehorticultural agribusinesses with high investment capitalat stake may select risk-averse options that minimize thelsquoregretrsquo under a range of possible future outcomes (forexample high-flow storage reservoirs) Whilst suchinvestments may be marginally beneficial now theybecome more attractive if the value of longer-termresilience and security is taken into account Some cropsectors such as salad and soft fruit production may bemore vulnerable since they are highly seasonal anddependent on consumer demands and the weather Othercrops such as potatoes and field vegetables may be lessvulnerable as their consumption patterns are lesssensitive to the ambient weather Given the uncertaintyand long time scales most responses to climate changewill require combinations of adaptive management andtechnology Developing this adaptive capacity willinvolve a commitment of resources now by both theprivate and public sectors in order to enhance futureability to cope with the uncertain impacts of futureclimate change But for all these coping strategies thereare both barriers and enablers to adaptation as high-lighted below

Adaptation barriersAdaptation barriers include the following

bull a very high degree of short- to medium-termuncertainty in agricultural policy and marketsincluding speculative agricultural commodity trading

bull negative impacts of adaptation in other sectors ndash forexample the implementation of adaptation measures to

255Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

address the increased risks to urban areas from riverflooding using agricultural floodplain land forattenuation could impact on crop productivity and landvalue

bull land use restrictions for example due to EUregulations andor agri-environmental supportschemes could hamper crop diversification

bull inflexibility in the abstraction licensing regime maylimit the potential for water trading and allocation ofwater to high-value cropping

bull poor availability of finance and investment in researchand technology development

bull restrictions from planning regulations anddevelopment control

bull attempts to preserve lsquoexistingrsquo environmentsbull the negative impact of energy policies on food

production andbull risk of overseas food suppliers failing due to extreme

events for example food imports from southernEurope at risk

Adaptation enablersEnablers include

bull mechanisms and initiatives to promote improvedresource efficiency the converse of the aboveincluding supporting education and knowledgetransfer investments incentives property rightsbuilding capacity in the agriculture sector andgovernance systems

bull collaborative funding of science and technology toenhance adaptability to climate change

bull addressing market institutional and regulatory failurefor example by payments for environmental servicesand conservation of natural resources

bull water user associations providing opportunities forcollective action in natural resource management

bull tax breaks for example capital allowance schemes toinvest in adaptation measures and

bull legislative enablers such as the Flood and Water Act2010 which help promote adaptation by providingmore flexible regulation for abstraction licensing

Conclusion

The UK agricultural cropping sector faces a challengingperiod ahead balancing the need to increase productivitywhilst controlling spiralling farm costs particularly inrelation to energy Growers also need to demonstratecompliance with regulations associated withenvironmental protection food safety and biosecurity Inthis context coping with immediate economicenvironmental and technological pressures means thatfarmers are less inclined to give climate change thepriority it deserves as a key business risk Climate changehowever is likely to exacerbate many of the currentchallenges already facing the agri-food sector Clearly itpresents both threats and opportunities to UK cropproduction but the key to tackling climate change will bein adaptation ndash securing access to the relevant skillsresources and knowledge to increase productionefficiency improve management and embrace newtechnology

References

Angus A Burgess P J Morris J and Lingard J (2009)lsquoAgriculture and land use demand for and supply of agricul-tural commodities characteristics of farming and foodindustries and implications for land usersquo Land Use Policy Vol26 No 1001 pp S230ndashS242

Collier R Fellows J R Adams S R Semenov M and Thomas B(2008) lsquoVulnerability of horticultural crop production to extremeweather eventsrsquo Aspects of Applied Biology Vol 88 pp 3ndash14

Daccache A Knox J W Weatherhead E K and Stalham M A(2010) lsquoImpacts of climate change on irrigated potato produc-tion in a humid climatersquo Agricultural and Forest Meteorology(forthcoming)

Defra (2010a) UK Food Security Assessment Detailed AnalysisDefra London

Defra (2010b) Food 2030 Department for Environment Food andRural Affairs London

Else M and Atkinson C (2010) lsquoClimate change impacts on UKtop and soft fruit productionrsquo Outlook on Agriculture Vol 39 No4 (this issue)

Falloon P and Betts R (2009) lsquoClimate impacts on Europeanagriculture and water management in the context of adaptationand mitigation ndash the importance of an integrated approachrsquoScience of the Total Environment doi101016jscitotenv200905002

Hess T M Knox J W Kay M G and Weatherhead E K(2011) lsquoManaging the water footprint of irrigated food produc-tion in England and Walesrsquo in Hester R E and Harrison RM eds Issues in Environmental Science and Technology 31Sustainable Water Royal Society of Chemistry Cambridge

IAASTD (2009a) Agriculture at the Cross Roads Global ReportInternational Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge Science andTechnology for Development Island Press Washington DC

IAASTD (2009b) Agriculture at the Cross Roads Europe and NorthAmerica Regional Report International Assessment of AgriculturalKnowledge Science and Technology for Development Island PressWashington DC

IPCC (2007) lsquoClimate change 2007 synthesis reportrsquo in PachauriR K and Reisinger A eds Contribution of Working Groups I IIand III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change IPCC Geneva

Jenkins G J Murphy J M Sexton D S Lowe J A Jones Pand Kilsby C G (2009) UK Climate Projections Briefing ReportMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter

Kang Y Khan S and Ma X (2009) lsquoClimate change impacts oncrop yield crop water productivity and food security ndash areviewrsquo Progress in Natural Science Vol 19 pp 1665ndash1674

Knox J W Weatherhead E K Rodriacuteguez-Diacuteaz J A and KayM G (2009) lsquoDeveloping a strategy to improve irrigationefficiency in a temperate climate a case study in EnglandrsquoOutlook on Agriculture Vol 38 No 4 pp 303ndash309

Knox J W Rodriguez-Diaz J A Weatherhead E K and KayM G (2010) lsquoDevelopment of a water strategy for horticulturein England and Walesrsquo Journal of Horticultural Science andBiotechnology Vol 85 No 2 pp 89ndash93

Leathes W Knox J W Kay M G Trawick P and Rodriguez-Diaz J A (2008) lsquoDeveloping UK farmersrsquo institutionalcapacity to defend their water rights and effectively managelimited water resourcesrsquo Irrigation and Drainage Vol 57 No 3pp 322ndash331

Moran D Topp K Wall E and Wreford A (2009) ClimateChange Impacts on the Livestock Sector Final Report AC0307 SACResearch Edinburgh

Morris J Posthumus H Hess T M Gowing D J G andRouquette J R (2009) lsquoWatery land the management oflowland floodplains in Englandrsquo in Winter M and Lobley Meds What is Land For The Food Fuel and Climate Change DebateEarthscan London

OECDndashFAO (2010) Agricultural Outlook 2010ndash2019 HighlightsOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentParis and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations Rome

253Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

Table 2 Summary of lsquonon-climatersquo risks to UK crop production grouped according to whether they are economic technological orenvironmental and off- or on-farm

Economic risks Environmental risks Technological risks

Off-farm

Impacts of European agro-economic policy and Low river flows limiting availability and Inadequate research and development ofCAP reform on business viability reliability of water for irrigation abstraction new technologies appropriate to UK

Impacts of instability in commodity markets at Environmental regulation (for example Birds farming conditionsglobal and European levels on UK crop prices and Habitats Directives) constraining Adoption and uptake of technological

Foreign exchange rates especially poundEuro and agricultural production advances lag behind EuropeanpoundUS$ ratios Imported or mutated indigenous plant diseases competitors

Supermarket pressures on the food supply chain Monoculture reduces biodiversity (increases Improved storage and transportCheap overseas food imports epidemic risks) technologies remove barriers to importsHigh costs of borrowing limiting investment in Fear of GMOs and novel technology Cross-contamination of geneticallynew technologies and mechanization Actual damage caused by GMOs and novel modified plant material

Reduced availability of loans and finance reduce technology Lack of investment in new research andinvestment and promote risk avoidance in Unidentified tipping points that lead to technology (resulting in reduceddecision making catastrophic failure of ecosystems such as competitiveness)

Higher UK taxes deter on-farm investment rapid soil loss disease epidemics Reduced number of people employedRising environmental costs associated with in the agricultural sector with a riskcharges for water and pollution of dislocation to urban areas

On-farm

Energy costs for crop production Soil degradation compaction (heavy machinery Reduced standards of land drainageRising labour costs and labour supply problems inappropriate management)salinity build-up (including flood defence)Rising environmental costs relating to meeting (excessive use of fertilizers) Inadequate knowledge transfer andsupermarket grower protocols Excessive use of pesticides and herbicides (risks understanding of new technologies

Rising costs of fertilizer (linked to energy costs) of soil air and water pollution affecting human that limit technology uptakeand seed and animal health and disrupting the preyndash Rising cost of energy on which technology

Reduced expenditure on flood defence and land predator equilibrium) is dependent (affecting irrigationdrainage infrastructure New diseases abstraction and machinery used in

agriculturefood processing)

increasing number of lsquonon-climatersquo risks both on- and off-farm as these may pose a much greater degree ofuncertainty for crop production

Non-climate risks to crop production

A summary of the main lsquonon-climatersquo risks are given inTable 2 grouped according to whether they are economicenvironmental or technological in nature recognizing thatthere will be overlaps These were identified viadiscussions with key informants in the agri-food industryincluding policy advisers practitioners (farmers)industry representatives (levy boards) and researchersThe majority occur lsquooff-farmrsquo and impact on growers viavarious national and European agroeconomic policyinterventions these include the increasing burden ofenvironmental regulations limitations in the availabilityof finance fluctuating exchange rates and the relativepower of supermarkets as these affect the operation ofmarkets including requirements for auditing and trace-ability The most significant economic impacts on-farmrelate to Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform as itcould affect farm income support compliance require-ments and incentives for environmentally sensitivefarming Rising production costs for water energy labourand fertilizer coupled with increasing risks associatedwith infrastructure damage due to flooding are othersources of economic risk Much depends on whether these

increased costs are offset by higher commodity pricesarising from strong global demand ndash the latest OECDndashFAO (2010) forecast is that average crop prices over thenext 10 years will be 15ndash40 higher in real terms relativeto 1997ndash2006 The main environmental impacts off-farmrelate to changes in water availability due to low surfacewater flows and groundwater levels increasing demandsfor water from other sectors increasing environmentalregulation and abstraction control and the risksassociated with genetically modified organism (GMO)cultivation

The on-farm risks relate mainly to the control of the useof pesticides and fertilizers and their consequent impactson local environments via diffuse water pollution plusthe risks of new disease and poor soil management Themain technological risks off-farm are related toinsufficient RampD investment in agriculture (Royal Society2009) coupled with a lag in technological uptakecompared with the UKrsquos European neighbours A declinein the capacity of skills in UK agriculture as well as thenumber of people willing to work on the land are alsoconstraints (Spedding 2009) common to other parts ofEurope and North America (IAASTD 2009b) On-farmtechnological risks relate to the observed widespreaddeterioration in maintenance of land drains inadequatestaff training and the rising costs of energy on which newtechnologies are dependent

In addition there is a raft of international drivers that

254 Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

will affect UK agriculture including the consequences forworld trade affecting both demand for and supply andprices of agricultural commodities in global and regionalmarkets and an increased volatility of market conditionsThere are also the actions being taken by governments(including protectionism) to address climate changeeffects ndash with consequences for agricultural marketsThere is likely to be greater instability in internationalfood and energy prices affecting fuel costs and fertilizeruse plus greater global water scarcity with consequentimpacts on food production especially in relation to foodexports to the UK from southern Europe (Yang et al 2007)Other international risks include

bull Agri-support funds for competitors for exampleEuropean funds for the modernization of southernEuropean irrigation schemes could provide competitiveadvantage over UK growers

bull The conversion of agricultural land from foodproduction to production of biofuel and raw materialsthe use of agricultural food commodities (such aswheat or sugarcane) for biofuels rather than for humanconsumption could impact on UK food imports andprices

bull Internationally agreed greenhouse gas (GHG)mitigation policies may inadvertently affect agriculturethrough for example policies to reduce energy usewhich will impact on fertilizer production

bull Migration climate change could increase the inwardflux of migrants from drought-affected areas in NorthAfrica and southern Europe northwards towardsclimatically lsquosafe havensrsquo such as the UK with possibleimpacts on local demand for land for housing food andnatural resources

There are also likely to be societal factors such as publicand political resistance to the use of GMOs that couldhelp to adapt to environmental change changing dietarypreferences towards healthy eating via for example theFood Standards Agency lsquoEatwell Platersquo campaignincreasing demand for year-round fresh suppliesfavouring food imports and competition for land andwater for development and non-agricultural uses such asnature conservation and recreation

Farmer responses and adaptation

It may be possible to increase production under climatechange if farmers can exploit longer growing seasonsthrough the use of longer duration varieties or sequentialplanting Such production opportunities may decline asclimate change becomes more extreme requiringadaptation to more prolonged and frequent droughtschanges in rainfall distribution more storms and otherextreme weather events increased and changing pestloads and changes in soil water balances (Sugden et al2008) A selection of the most feasible adaptationmeasures for UK growers includes

bull changing sowing and harvest dates to cope withwarmer springs and higher temperatures ndash forexample earlier sowing and later harvest tocompensate for drought-related losses on light soils(Richter et al 2006)

bull improvements in seed and crop storage to deal withchanges in moisture and temperature

bull switching from spring to winter cereal productionbull plant breeding for increased drought and flood

tolerance and pest resistancebull building high-flowwinter storage reservoirs to cope

with reduced availability and reliability of summerriver flows

bull investments in new technologies to improve water andenergy efficiency

bull soil index mapping and precision farming to applyvariable N P and K to fields to reduce diffusepollution

bull diversification of landholdings to extend crop rotationsand to work towards more geographically spreadcropping schedules

bull upgrading drainage systems to cope with higherrainfall intensities

bull adopting rainwater harvesting water recyclingand organic and artificial mulching to reduce wateruse

bull changing crop scheduling programmes with multiplecropping (for example of salads) to utilize extendedgrowing seasons

bull developing international links in the food supply chainndash many agribusinesses now have a European presenceto provide greater flexibility and an extended seasonfor food supply and

bull individual and collaborative actions working locally toprotect natural resources (Leathes et al 2008)

Small businesses and family farms with limited capacityto adapt will be most vulnerable Conversely largehorticultural agribusinesses with high investment capitalat stake may select risk-averse options that minimize thelsquoregretrsquo under a range of possible future outcomes (forexample high-flow storage reservoirs) Whilst suchinvestments may be marginally beneficial now theybecome more attractive if the value of longer-termresilience and security is taken into account Some cropsectors such as salad and soft fruit production may bemore vulnerable since they are highly seasonal anddependent on consumer demands and the weather Othercrops such as potatoes and field vegetables may be lessvulnerable as their consumption patterns are lesssensitive to the ambient weather Given the uncertaintyand long time scales most responses to climate changewill require combinations of adaptive management andtechnology Developing this adaptive capacity willinvolve a commitment of resources now by both theprivate and public sectors in order to enhance futureability to cope with the uncertain impacts of futureclimate change But for all these coping strategies thereare both barriers and enablers to adaptation as high-lighted below

Adaptation barriersAdaptation barriers include the following

bull a very high degree of short- to medium-termuncertainty in agricultural policy and marketsincluding speculative agricultural commodity trading

bull negative impacts of adaptation in other sectors ndash forexample the implementation of adaptation measures to

255Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

address the increased risks to urban areas from riverflooding using agricultural floodplain land forattenuation could impact on crop productivity and landvalue

bull land use restrictions for example due to EUregulations andor agri-environmental supportschemes could hamper crop diversification

bull inflexibility in the abstraction licensing regime maylimit the potential for water trading and allocation ofwater to high-value cropping

bull poor availability of finance and investment in researchand technology development

bull restrictions from planning regulations anddevelopment control

bull attempts to preserve lsquoexistingrsquo environmentsbull the negative impact of energy policies on food

production andbull risk of overseas food suppliers failing due to extreme

events for example food imports from southernEurope at risk

Adaptation enablersEnablers include

bull mechanisms and initiatives to promote improvedresource efficiency the converse of the aboveincluding supporting education and knowledgetransfer investments incentives property rightsbuilding capacity in the agriculture sector andgovernance systems

bull collaborative funding of science and technology toenhance adaptability to climate change

bull addressing market institutional and regulatory failurefor example by payments for environmental servicesand conservation of natural resources

bull water user associations providing opportunities forcollective action in natural resource management

bull tax breaks for example capital allowance schemes toinvest in adaptation measures and

bull legislative enablers such as the Flood and Water Act2010 which help promote adaptation by providingmore flexible regulation for abstraction licensing

Conclusion

The UK agricultural cropping sector faces a challengingperiod ahead balancing the need to increase productivitywhilst controlling spiralling farm costs particularly inrelation to energy Growers also need to demonstratecompliance with regulations associated withenvironmental protection food safety and biosecurity Inthis context coping with immediate economicenvironmental and technological pressures means thatfarmers are less inclined to give climate change thepriority it deserves as a key business risk Climate changehowever is likely to exacerbate many of the currentchallenges already facing the agri-food sector Clearly itpresents both threats and opportunities to UK cropproduction but the key to tackling climate change will bein adaptation ndash securing access to the relevant skillsresources and knowledge to increase productionefficiency improve management and embrace newtechnology

References

Angus A Burgess P J Morris J and Lingard J (2009)lsquoAgriculture and land use demand for and supply of agricul-tural commodities characteristics of farming and foodindustries and implications for land usersquo Land Use Policy Vol26 No 1001 pp S230ndashS242

Collier R Fellows J R Adams S R Semenov M and Thomas B(2008) lsquoVulnerability of horticultural crop production to extremeweather eventsrsquo Aspects of Applied Biology Vol 88 pp 3ndash14

Daccache A Knox J W Weatherhead E K and Stalham M A(2010) lsquoImpacts of climate change on irrigated potato produc-tion in a humid climatersquo Agricultural and Forest Meteorology(forthcoming)

Defra (2010a) UK Food Security Assessment Detailed AnalysisDefra London

Defra (2010b) Food 2030 Department for Environment Food andRural Affairs London

Else M and Atkinson C (2010) lsquoClimate change impacts on UKtop and soft fruit productionrsquo Outlook on Agriculture Vol 39 No4 (this issue)

Falloon P and Betts R (2009) lsquoClimate impacts on Europeanagriculture and water management in the context of adaptationand mitigation ndash the importance of an integrated approachrsquoScience of the Total Environment doi101016jscitotenv200905002

Hess T M Knox J W Kay M G and Weatherhead E K(2011) lsquoManaging the water footprint of irrigated food produc-tion in England and Walesrsquo in Hester R E and Harrison RM eds Issues in Environmental Science and Technology 31Sustainable Water Royal Society of Chemistry Cambridge

IAASTD (2009a) Agriculture at the Cross Roads Global ReportInternational Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge Science andTechnology for Development Island Press Washington DC

IAASTD (2009b) Agriculture at the Cross Roads Europe and NorthAmerica Regional Report International Assessment of AgriculturalKnowledge Science and Technology for Development Island PressWashington DC

IPCC (2007) lsquoClimate change 2007 synthesis reportrsquo in PachauriR K and Reisinger A eds Contribution of Working Groups I IIand III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change IPCC Geneva

Jenkins G J Murphy J M Sexton D S Lowe J A Jones Pand Kilsby C G (2009) UK Climate Projections Briefing ReportMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter

Kang Y Khan S and Ma X (2009) lsquoClimate change impacts oncrop yield crop water productivity and food security ndash areviewrsquo Progress in Natural Science Vol 19 pp 1665ndash1674

Knox J W Weatherhead E K Rodriacuteguez-Diacuteaz J A and KayM G (2009) lsquoDeveloping a strategy to improve irrigationefficiency in a temperate climate a case study in EnglandrsquoOutlook on Agriculture Vol 38 No 4 pp 303ndash309

Knox J W Rodriguez-Diaz J A Weatherhead E K and KayM G (2010) lsquoDevelopment of a water strategy for horticulturein England and Walesrsquo Journal of Horticultural Science andBiotechnology Vol 85 No 2 pp 89ndash93

Leathes W Knox J W Kay M G Trawick P and Rodriguez-Diaz J A (2008) lsquoDeveloping UK farmersrsquo institutionalcapacity to defend their water rights and effectively managelimited water resourcesrsquo Irrigation and Drainage Vol 57 No 3pp 322ndash331

Moran D Topp K Wall E and Wreford A (2009) ClimateChange Impacts on the Livestock Sector Final Report AC0307 SACResearch Edinburgh

Morris J Posthumus H Hess T M Gowing D J G andRouquette J R (2009) lsquoWatery land the management oflowland floodplains in Englandrsquo in Winter M and Lobley Meds What is Land For The Food Fuel and Climate Change DebateEarthscan London

OECDndashFAO (2010) Agricultural Outlook 2010ndash2019 HighlightsOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentParis and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations Rome

254 Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

will affect UK agriculture including the consequences forworld trade affecting both demand for and supply andprices of agricultural commodities in global and regionalmarkets and an increased volatility of market conditionsThere are also the actions being taken by governments(including protectionism) to address climate changeeffects ndash with consequences for agricultural marketsThere is likely to be greater instability in internationalfood and energy prices affecting fuel costs and fertilizeruse plus greater global water scarcity with consequentimpacts on food production especially in relation to foodexports to the UK from southern Europe (Yang et al 2007)Other international risks include

bull Agri-support funds for competitors for exampleEuropean funds for the modernization of southernEuropean irrigation schemes could provide competitiveadvantage over UK growers

bull The conversion of agricultural land from foodproduction to production of biofuel and raw materialsthe use of agricultural food commodities (such aswheat or sugarcane) for biofuels rather than for humanconsumption could impact on UK food imports andprices

bull Internationally agreed greenhouse gas (GHG)mitigation policies may inadvertently affect agriculturethrough for example policies to reduce energy usewhich will impact on fertilizer production

bull Migration climate change could increase the inwardflux of migrants from drought-affected areas in NorthAfrica and southern Europe northwards towardsclimatically lsquosafe havensrsquo such as the UK with possibleimpacts on local demand for land for housing food andnatural resources

There are also likely to be societal factors such as publicand political resistance to the use of GMOs that couldhelp to adapt to environmental change changing dietarypreferences towards healthy eating via for example theFood Standards Agency lsquoEatwell Platersquo campaignincreasing demand for year-round fresh suppliesfavouring food imports and competition for land andwater for development and non-agricultural uses such asnature conservation and recreation

Farmer responses and adaptation

It may be possible to increase production under climatechange if farmers can exploit longer growing seasonsthrough the use of longer duration varieties or sequentialplanting Such production opportunities may decline asclimate change becomes more extreme requiringadaptation to more prolonged and frequent droughtschanges in rainfall distribution more storms and otherextreme weather events increased and changing pestloads and changes in soil water balances (Sugden et al2008) A selection of the most feasible adaptationmeasures for UK growers includes

bull changing sowing and harvest dates to cope withwarmer springs and higher temperatures ndash forexample earlier sowing and later harvest tocompensate for drought-related losses on light soils(Richter et al 2006)

bull improvements in seed and crop storage to deal withchanges in moisture and temperature

bull switching from spring to winter cereal productionbull plant breeding for increased drought and flood

tolerance and pest resistancebull building high-flowwinter storage reservoirs to cope

with reduced availability and reliability of summerriver flows

bull investments in new technologies to improve water andenergy efficiency

bull soil index mapping and precision farming to applyvariable N P and K to fields to reduce diffusepollution

bull diversification of landholdings to extend crop rotationsand to work towards more geographically spreadcropping schedules

bull upgrading drainage systems to cope with higherrainfall intensities

bull adopting rainwater harvesting water recyclingand organic and artificial mulching to reduce wateruse

bull changing crop scheduling programmes with multiplecropping (for example of salads) to utilize extendedgrowing seasons

bull developing international links in the food supply chainndash many agribusinesses now have a European presenceto provide greater flexibility and an extended seasonfor food supply and

bull individual and collaborative actions working locally toprotect natural resources (Leathes et al 2008)

Small businesses and family farms with limited capacityto adapt will be most vulnerable Conversely largehorticultural agribusinesses with high investment capitalat stake may select risk-averse options that minimize thelsquoregretrsquo under a range of possible future outcomes (forexample high-flow storage reservoirs) Whilst suchinvestments may be marginally beneficial now theybecome more attractive if the value of longer-termresilience and security is taken into account Some cropsectors such as salad and soft fruit production may bemore vulnerable since they are highly seasonal anddependent on consumer demands and the weather Othercrops such as potatoes and field vegetables may be lessvulnerable as their consumption patterns are lesssensitive to the ambient weather Given the uncertaintyand long time scales most responses to climate changewill require combinations of adaptive management andtechnology Developing this adaptive capacity willinvolve a commitment of resources now by both theprivate and public sectors in order to enhance futureability to cope with the uncertain impacts of futureclimate change But for all these coping strategies thereare both barriers and enablers to adaptation as high-lighted below

Adaptation barriersAdaptation barriers include the following

bull a very high degree of short- to medium-termuncertainty in agricultural policy and marketsincluding speculative agricultural commodity trading

bull negative impacts of adaptation in other sectors ndash forexample the implementation of adaptation measures to

255Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

address the increased risks to urban areas from riverflooding using agricultural floodplain land forattenuation could impact on crop productivity and landvalue

bull land use restrictions for example due to EUregulations andor agri-environmental supportschemes could hamper crop diversification

bull inflexibility in the abstraction licensing regime maylimit the potential for water trading and allocation ofwater to high-value cropping

bull poor availability of finance and investment in researchand technology development

bull restrictions from planning regulations anddevelopment control

bull attempts to preserve lsquoexistingrsquo environmentsbull the negative impact of energy policies on food

production andbull risk of overseas food suppliers failing due to extreme

events for example food imports from southernEurope at risk

Adaptation enablersEnablers include

bull mechanisms and initiatives to promote improvedresource efficiency the converse of the aboveincluding supporting education and knowledgetransfer investments incentives property rightsbuilding capacity in the agriculture sector andgovernance systems

bull collaborative funding of science and technology toenhance adaptability to climate change

bull addressing market institutional and regulatory failurefor example by payments for environmental servicesand conservation of natural resources

bull water user associations providing opportunities forcollective action in natural resource management

bull tax breaks for example capital allowance schemes toinvest in adaptation measures and

bull legislative enablers such as the Flood and Water Act2010 which help promote adaptation by providingmore flexible regulation for abstraction licensing

Conclusion

The UK agricultural cropping sector faces a challengingperiod ahead balancing the need to increase productivitywhilst controlling spiralling farm costs particularly inrelation to energy Growers also need to demonstratecompliance with regulations associated withenvironmental protection food safety and biosecurity Inthis context coping with immediate economicenvironmental and technological pressures means thatfarmers are less inclined to give climate change thepriority it deserves as a key business risk Climate changehowever is likely to exacerbate many of the currentchallenges already facing the agri-food sector Clearly itpresents both threats and opportunities to UK cropproduction but the key to tackling climate change will bein adaptation ndash securing access to the relevant skillsresources and knowledge to increase productionefficiency improve management and embrace newtechnology

References

Angus A Burgess P J Morris J and Lingard J (2009)lsquoAgriculture and land use demand for and supply of agricul-tural commodities characteristics of farming and foodindustries and implications for land usersquo Land Use Policy Vol26 No 1001 pp S230ndashS242

Collier R Fellows J R Adams S R Semenov M and Thomas B(2008) lsquoVulnerability of horticultural crop production to extremeweather eventsrsquo Aspects of Applied Biology Vol 88 pp 3ndash14

Daccache A Knox J W Weatherhead E K and Stalham M A(2010) lsquoImpacts of climate change on irrigated potato produc-tion in a humid climatersquo Agricultural and Forest Meteorology(forthcoming)

Defra (2010a) UK Food Security Assessment Detailed AnalysisDefra London

Defra (2010b) Food 2030 Department for Environment Food andRural Affairs London

Else M and Atkinson C (2010) lsquoClimate change impacts on UKtop and soft fruit productionrsquo Outlook on Agriculture Vol 39 No4 (this issue)

Falloon P and Betts R (2009) lsquoClimate impacts on Europeanagriculture and water management in the context of adaptationand mitigation ndash the importance of an integrated approachrsquoScience of the Total Environment doi101016jscitotenv200905002

Hess T M Knox J W Kay M G and Weatherhead E K(2011) lsquoManaging the water footprint of irrigated food produc-tion in England and Walesrsquo in Hester R E and Harrison RM eds Issues in Environmental Science and Technology 31Sustainable Water Royal Society of Chemistry Cambridge

IAASTD (2009a) Agriculture at the Cross Roads Global ReportInternational Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge Science andTechnology for Development Island Press Washington DC

IAASTD (2009b) Agriculture at the Cross Roads Europe and NorthAmerica Regional Report International Assessment of AgriculturalKnowledge Science and Technology for Development Island PressWashington DC

IPCC (2007) lsquoClimate change 2007 synthesis reportrsquo in PachauriR K and Reisinger A eds Contribution of Working Groups I IIand III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change IPCC Geneva

Jenkins G J Murphy J M Sexton D S Lowe J A Jones Pand Kilsby C G (2009) UK Climate Projections Briefing ReportMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter

Kang Y Khan S and Ma X (2009) lsquoClimate change impacts oncrop yield crop water productivity and food security ndash areviewrsquo Progress in Natural Science Vol 19 pp 1665ndash1674

Knox J W Weatherhead E K Rodriacuteguez-Diacuteaz J A and KayM G (2009) lsquoDeveloping a strategy to improve irrigationefficiency in a temperate climate a case study in EnglandrsquoOutlook on Agriculture Vol 38 No 4 pp 303ndash309

Knox J W Rodriguez-Diaz J A Weatherhead E K and KayM G (2010) lsquoDevelopment of a water strategy for horticulturein England and Walesrsquo Journal of Horticultural Science andBiotechnology Vol 85 No 2 pp 89ndash93

Leathes W Knox J W Kay M G Trawick P and Rodriguez-Diaz J A (2008) lsquoDeveloping UK farmersrsquo institutionalcapacity to defend their water rights and effectively managelimited water resourcesrsquo Irrigation and Drainage Vol 57 No 3pp 322ndash331

Moran D Topp K Wall E and Wreford A (2009) ClimateChange Impacts on the Livestock Sector Final Report AC0307 SACResearch Edinburgh

Morris J Posthumus H Hess T M Gowing D J G andRouquette J R (2009) lsquoWatery land the management oflowland floodplains in Englandrsquo in Winter M and Lobley Meds What is Land For The Food Fuel and Climate Change DebateEarthscan London

OECDndashFAO (2010) Agricultural Outlook 2010ndash2019 HighlightsOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentParis and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations Rome

255Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

address the increased risks to urban areas from riverflooding using agricultural floodplain land forattenuation could impact on crop productivity and landvalue

bull land use restrictions for example due to EUregulations andor agri-environmental supportschemes could hamper crop diversification

bull inflexibility in the abstraction licensing regime maylimit the potential for water trading and allocation ofwater to high-value cropping

bull poor availability of finance and investment in researchand technology development

bull restrictions from planning regulations anddevelopment control

bull attempts to preserve lsquoexistingrsquo environmentsbull the negative impact of energy policies on food

production andbull risk of overseas food suppliers failing due to extreme

events for example food imports from southernEurope at risk

Adaptation enablersEnablers include

bull mechanisms and initiatives to promote improvedresource efficiency the converse of the aboveincluding supporting education and knowledgetransfer investments incentives property rightsbuilding capacity in the agriculture sector andgovernance systems

bull collaborative funding of science and technology toenhance adaptability to climate change

bull addressing market institutional and regulatory failurefor example by payments for environmental servicesand conservation of natural resources

bull water user associations providing opportunities forcollective action in natural resource management

bull tax breaks for example capital allowance schemes toinvest in adaptation measures and

bull legislative enablers such as the Flood and Water Act2010 which help promote adaptation by providingmore flexible regulation for abstraction licensing

Conclusion

The UK agricultural cropping sector faces a challengingperiod ahead balancing the need to increase productivitywhilst controlling spiralling farm costs particularly inrelation to energy Growers also need to demonstratecompliance with regulations associated withenvironmental protection food safety and biosecurity Inthis context coping with immediate economicenvironmental and technological pressures means thatfarmers are less inclined to give climate change thepriority it deserves as a key business risk Climate changehowever is likely to exacerbate many of the currentchallenges already facing the agri-food sector Clearly itpresents both threats and opportunities to UK cropproduction but the key to tackling climate change will bein adaptation ndash securing access to the relevant skillsresources and knowledge to increase productionefficiency improve management and embrace newtechnology

References

Angus A Burgess P J Morris J and Lingard J (2009)lsquoAgriculture and land use demand for and supply of agricul-tural commodities characteristics of farming and foodindustries and implications for land usersquo Land Use Policy Vol26 No 1001 pp S230ndashS242

Collier R Fellows J R Adams S R Semenov M and Thomas B(2008) lsquoVulnerability of horticultural crop production to extremeweather eventsrsquo Aspects of Applied Biology Vol 88 pp 3ndash14

Daccache A Knox J W Weatherhead E K and Stalham M A(2010) lsquoImpacts of climate change on irrigated potato produc-tion in a humid climatersquo Agricultural and Forest Meteorology(forthcoming)

Defra (2010a) UK Food Security Assessment Detailed AnalysisDefra London

Defra (2010b) Food 2030 Department for Environment Food andRural Affairs London

Else M and Atkinson C (2010) lsquoClimate change impacts on UKtop and soft fruit productionrsquo Outlook on Agriculture Vol 39 No4 (this issue)

Falloon P and Betts R (2009) lsquoClimate impacts on Europeanagriculture and water management in the context of adaptationand mitigation ndash the importance of an integrated approachrsquoScience of the Total Environment doi101016jscitotenv200905002

Hess T M Knox J W Kay M G and Weatherhead E K(2011) lsquoManaging the water footprint of irrigated food produc-tion in England and Walesrsquo in Hester R E and Harrison RM eds Issues in Environmental Science and Technology 31Sustainable Water Royal Society of Chemistry Cambridge

IAASTD (2009a) Agriculture at the Cross Roads Global ReportInternational Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge Science andTechnology for Development Island Press Washington DC

IAASTD (2009b) Agriculture at the Cross Roads Europe and NorthAmerica Regional Report International Assessment of AgriculturalKnowledge Science and Technology for Development Island PressWashington DC

IPCC (2007) lsquoClimate change 2007 synthesis reportrsquo in PachauriR K and Reisinger A eds Contribution of Working Groups I IIand III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change IPCC Geneva

Jenkins G J Murphy J M Sexton D S Lowe J A Jones Pand Kilsby C G (2009) UK Climate Projections Briefing ReportMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter

Kang Y Khan S and Ma X (2009) lsquoClimate change impacts oncrop yield crop water productivity and food security ndash areviewrsquo Progress in Natural Science Vol 19 pp 1665ndash1674

Knox J W Weatherhead E K Rodriacuteguez-Diacuteaz J A and KayM G (2009) lsquoDeveloping a strategy to improve irrigationefficiency in a temperate climate a case study in EnglandrsquoOutlook on Agriculture Vol 38 No 4 pp 303ndash309

Knox J W Rodriguez-Diaz J A Weatherhead E K and KayM G (2010) lsquoDevelopment of a water strategy for horticulturein England and Walesrsquo Journal of Horticultural Science andBiotechnology Vol 85 No 2 pp 89ndash93

Leathes W Knox J W Kay M G Trawick P and Rodriguez-Diaz J A (2008) lsquoDeveloping UK farmersrsquo institutionalcapacity to defend their water rights and effectively managelimited water resourcesrsquo Irrigation and Drainage Vol 57 No 3pp 322ndash331

Moran D Topp K Wall E and Wreford A (2009) ClimateChange Impacts on the Livestock Sector Final Report AC0307 SACResearch Edinburgh

Morris J Posthumus H Hess T M Gowing D J G andRouquette J R (2009) lsquoWatery land the management oflowland floodplains in Englandrsquo in Winter M and Lobley Meds What is Land For The Food Fuel and Climate Change DebateEarthscan London

OECDndashFAO (2010) Agricultural Outlook 2010ndash2019 HighlightsOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentParis and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations Rome

256 Outlook on AGRICULTURE Vol 39 No 4

Future risks to UK agricultural crop production

Olesen J E and Bindi M (2002) lsquoConsequences of climatechange for European agricultural productivity land useand policyrsquo European Journal of Agronomy Vol 16 pp 239ndash262

Posthumus H Morris J Hess T M Neville D Philips E andBaylis A (2009) lsquoImpacts of the summer 2007 floods onagriculture in Englandrsquo Journal of Flood Risk Management Vol 2No 3 pp 182ndash189

Read D J Freer-Smith P H Morison J I L Hanley N WestC C and Snowdon P eds (2009) Combating Climate Change ndashA Role for UK Forests An Assessment of the Potential of the UKrsquosTrees and Woodlands to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change TheStationery Office Edinburgh

Richter G M and Semenov M A (2005) lsquoModelling impacts ofclimate change on wheat yields in England and Wales assess-ing drought risksrsquo Agricultural Systems Vol 84 pp 77ndash97

Richter G M Qi A Semenov M A and Jaggard K W (2006)lsquoModelling the variability of UK sugar beet yields underclimate change and husbandry adaptationsrsquo Soil Use andManagement Vol 22 pp 39ndash47

Rounsevell M D A and Reay D S (2009) lsquoLand use andclimate change in the UKrsquo Land Use Policy Vol 26S pp S160ndashS169

Royal Society (2009) Reaping the Benefits Science and the Sustain-

able Intensification of Global Agriculture RS Policy Document 1109 the Royal Society London

Spedding A (2009) New Blood ndash Attracting the Best People to UKAgriculture Royal Agricultural Society of England (RASE)Stoneleigh Park

Subak S Palutikof J P Agnew M D Watson S J Bentham CG Cannell M G R Hulme M McNally S Thornes J EWaughray D and Woods J C (2000) lsquoThe impact of theanomalous weather of 1995 on the UK economyrsquo ClimaticChange Vol 44 pp 1ndash26

Sugden K MacGregor N Thompson D and Broadmeadow M(2008) A Review of Research into Adaptation to Climate Change byAgriculture in the UK Defra London

Sylvester-Bradley R Foulkes J and Reynolds M (2005) lsquoFuturewheat yields evidence theory and conjecturersquo in Sylvester-Bradley R and Wiseman J eds Yields of Farmed SpeciesConstraints and Opportunities in the 21st Century NottinghamUniversity Press Nottingham pp 233ndash260

Weatherhead E K (2006) Survey of Irrigation of OutdoorCrops in 2005 England and Wales Cranfield UniversityCranfield

Yang H Wang L and Zehnder A B (2007) lsquoWater scarcity andfood trade in the Southern and Eastern Mediterraneancountriesrsquo Food Policy Vol 32 pp 585ndash605