ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

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Page 1: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith
Page 2: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

Why trends?

Companies that ride the currents succeed; those that swim against them usually struggle. Identifying the currents and developing strategies to navigate strategies to navigate them is vital. (McKinsey & Company)

Page 3: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

Objectives of the Consumer Lifestyle Trends programme

• A framework for making sense of change

• Bring consumers to the heart of the business decision making

• A driver of more future-• A driver of more future-focused marketing

• Identify new opportunities and threats

• A source of inspiration and a spur for innovation

Page 4: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

Identifying and defining the trends

Page 5: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

A trends framework provides clarity and strategic focus on the change that will impact your business

Food &

Drink

Related

sectors

Trends that are long–

term or distant

from the category

Trends that are

current or close to

the category

Page 6: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

How we identify and understand trends

Top Down Can we identify substantial Drivers behind this trend that suggest it will continue?

Empirical evidence from a range of sources, including Global MONITOR, a quantitative study

An understanding of the macro forces shaping the lives of consumers such as social, technological, economic, environmental and political factors

Can we see evidence of this trend at work in brand or human behaviour or attitudes?

Bottom Up

TREND Validated through research

including Global MONITOR, a quantitative study covering 20 markets and 90% of global GDP

Qualitative depth interviews in Ireland and GB

GlobalStreetscaping network: independent, discerning, culturally connected individuals who are spread throughout 46 cities in 28 countries

covering every continent of the world

Page 7: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

Sub-trend

Driver

Driver

Detailing a trend

Sustained change in consumer

attitudes, needs, wants and behaviours

Sub-trend

Driver

Ways in which the trends are playing

out in today’s world

Sub-trend

The forces and energies shaping the trend

Page 8: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

Many sub-trends remain relevant, but have evolved

We have told the story of how each sub-trend has evolved through an evolution arrow

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

THENWhat were the defining characteristics of this sub-trend in 2006?

NOWWhat are the defining

characteristics of the sub-trend today and what is emerging at

the edges?

Page 9: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

The ‘updated’ Consumer Lifestyle Trends

“I want to be in control of my health and wellness, to manage or improve it through making better choices”

“I want to stay in control of my busy life and make sure I am at my best for the challenges the day presents”

“I am looking for products and brands that are real and authentic, because they have stood the test of time

and remained true to their heritage; they provide me with comfort and reassurance”

“I like to pursue better value, to help maintain my lifestyle and to get the most from the money I have”

“I would like products that create less negative impact on the world; I want choices that make me feel good

without harming my wallet ”

“I need to balance the stresses in my everyday life with experiences that are fun and fulfilling”

Page 10: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

“I want to stay in control of my busy life and make sure that I am at my best for whatever the day presents”

Page 11: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

From an opportunity to fit more in and cut down on life’s chores, to restoring control and taking time out

2008 2009

My life is so busy these days that it is a constant challenge to manage my time effectively

The pace of life has eased a little as the economy has slowed…

Where money can be saved, people have found a practical solution…

In Italy, sales of dough to make bread and pizza bases at home are

soaring, as people try to

Time out to re-charge is increasingly important.

Source: Global MONITOR 2009

50

424645

37 38

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ireland GB Rest of EU

2008 2009% agree soaring, as people try to

cut down expenses on eating out.

A recent study concluded that day time naps produce significant advantages to brain

concentration. Source: www.guardian.co.uk

Page 12: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

Drivers Sub-trends

Conveniently thereProviding ever improved convenience

Simple solutionsRemoving complexity or saving time

Changing working patterns

Rise of new media and communication technologies

Economic anxietiesWinding downSlowing down and escaping to recharge the body and mind

Always with youCarrying with you what you need

Peak performanceMaximising your physical and mental performance during the day

Increasing mobility

Page 13: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Simple solutions

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Removing complexity or saving time

The base for a practical solution

Packaging and design work harder to make

life easy

Just add…

THEN NOW

Page 14: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Conveniently there

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Providing ever improved convenience

We will be with you shortly

Here for a short whileJust where you need it

THEN NOW

Page 15: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Always with you

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Carrying with you what you need

Spice up your coffee Breakfast made easyOn-the-go solutions

THEN NOW

Page 16: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Peak performance

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Maximising your physical and mental performance throughout the day

Energy boosting designed for your

specific needs

Targeted types of energy

It gives you ‘wings’

THEN NOW

Page 17: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Winding down

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Slowing down and escaping to recharge the body and mind

New ingredientsSleep concertsRelaxing bath time

THEN NOW

Page 18: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

POINTS TO PONDER

Navigating the challengesof today

Planning for the longer term

• How can your products offer convenience but help people to be resourceful in saving money?

• How can your products help

• How do you ensure that your products are accessible on people’s daily paths?

• What formats can you provide that create portability and on-the-go usage?

• How can your products help people unwind or take time out? What types of experiences could you offer through retail environments?

that create portability and on-the-go usage?

• How can you help people better manage their energy needs during the day?

Page 19: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

“I need to balance the stresses in my everyday life with experiences that are fun and fulfilling”

Page 20: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

From limitless enthusiasm for new experiences no matter what the cost to a more considered approach of looking for moments

of fun, novelty and respite in everyday life

There is less money for indulgent experiences…

But people still need a way to release pressure…

Importance in your personal life today: Having

Fun

82 8090

2008 2009% agree

Food continues to be a great outlet for creativity, exploration, and play.

“We are eating

Source: Global MONITOR 2009

7772

60

82 80

68

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ireland GB Rest of EU

Remy-Cointreau has reported a 7.5% fall in turnover in the second

quarter of 2009, reflecting the fall in

global champagne sales Source: spirits.drinks-business-

review.com

“We are eating in more and wanting to re-create the restaurant

experience at home”

Gillian Carter, Editor, BBC Good Food Magazine

Page 21: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

Drivers Sub-trends

New boundaries: Experimenting with new combinations or finding new horizons

Co-creation:

Time to play:Growing importance of play and spontaneity in daily life

Changing working patterns

Growing knowledge of the world’s opportunities

Economic anxieties Me moments:Indulgent experiences that help to lift the spirits

Co-creation:The enjoyment and fun of being part of the creative process

Stimulating the senses:More excitement and sensorial experiences from the small things in life

Increasing life expectancy

Page 22: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Time to play

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Growing importance of play and spontaneity in daily life

Free moneyClothes swappingVirtual challenges

THEN NOW

Page 23: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: New boundaries

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Experimenting with new combinations or finding new horizons

Underground diningDifferent experiencesNew fusions

THEN NOW

Page 24: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Co-creation

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

The enjoyment and fun of being part of the creative process

Gaining a stake in success

Expert consumersFreedom to choose and customise

THEN NOW

Page 25: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Stimulating the senses

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

More excitement and sensorial experiences from the small things in life

Unknown flavoursThe design experienceDining in the dark

THEN NOW

Page 26: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Me moments

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Indulgent experiences that help to lift the spirits

Family moments together

Go home gorgeousLost in the moment

THEN NOW

Page 27: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

POINTS TO PONDER

• How can you communicate how your products bring a sense of fun or play to people’s everyday lives?

• Can you offer a more cost

Navigating the challengesof today

Planning for the longer term

• How can you create more of an experience through using your product?

• What sorts of new sensory • Can you offer a more cost effective experience versus a more expensive choice?

• How can you encourage consumers to play a greater role in creating your products?

• Can your products help to provide a respite from the stresses of life?

• What sorts of new sensory experiences can you offer to consumers via your products?

• How can you help facilitate greater connection in the home around meal preparation or eating?

Page 28: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

“I would like products that create less negative impact on the world; I want choices that make me feel good without

harming my wallet ”

Page 29: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

From an active and altruistic interest in making the world a better place to a greater focus on caring about ‘close to home’

rather than the world at large

The welfare of the wider world seems less important…

Some positive choices have had to be put on hold…

According to data from TNS World Panel, sales of organic produce have

Charity now has more of a ‘homely’ feel.

Climate change is the biggest single problem facing the world

today

2008 2009% Agree organic produce have fallen by up to a third since the start of the

recession

McDonald’s local menus continue to prove extremely popular.

Underpinning this offer is an emphasis on the use of locally sourced ingredients

Source: Global MONITOR 2009

59

50

67

5245

65

0

20

40

60

80

Ireland GB Rest of EU

2008 2009

Page 30: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

Drivers Sub-trends

War on wasteReducing the wasteful results of consumption

Climate conscious

Resource worriesLiving in a world where resources are increasingly in short supply

Growing awareness of environmental and social

issues

Economic anxieties

Declining trust in governments and big business

Fair treatmentTreating animals and people fairly in the production process

Climate consciousProtecting the world’s environment and biodiversity

Good causesSupporting a worthy cause through purchase choices

Growing impact of resource shortages

Page 31: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Resource worries

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

•Living in a world where resources are increasingly in short supply

Renewable energyOld fashioned deliveryNovel solutions

THEN NOW

Page 32: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: War on waste

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

•Reducing the wasteful results of consumption

Repurposed plasticWaste for plant foodOrigami folds

THEN NOW

Page 33: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Climate conscious

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Protecting the world’s environment and biodiversity

Reducing as well as off-setting

From the rainforest to help the rainforest

Off-setting

THEN NOW

Page 34: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Good causes

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Supporting a worthy cause through purchase choices

Democratic choices for the community

Helping the needy support themselves

Raising money for good causes

THEN NOW

Page 35: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Fair treatment

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Treating animals and people fairly in the production process

Fairtrade everythingFree the chickenFair pay for workers

THEN NOW

Page 36: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

POINTS TO PONDER

Navigating the challengesof today

Planning for the longer term

• Can you leverage your environmental credentials to reinforce the value and quality of your products?

• Can you turn the waste you create

• How can you reduce the environmental impacts of your products?

• How can you minimise waste in • Can you turn the waste you create for consumers into a positive resource for people to use?

• What are your local credentials and what is the wider impact of your business on your community?

• How can you ensure that people and animals involved in the production of food are treated fairly?

• How can you minimise waste in the production process and help people minimise the waste created by using your products?

• How transparent is your sourcing? Could you use more local sources for key ingredients?

Page 37: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

“I want to be in control of my health and wellness, to manage or improve it through making better choices”

Page 38: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

From enhancing health to a focus on ensuring good health in the short and longer term

Health is still a top concern for people, companies and regulatory authorities…

A more balanced lifestyle approach is emerging …

More traditional and natural solutions are increasingly popular.

Change4Life is a society-wide movement that aims to prevent people from

I believe that looking after my health is entirely my own

responsibility

% Agree 2008 2009to prevent people from becoming overweight by encouraging them to eat better and move more.

Source: www.dh.gov.uk

Source: Global MONITOR 2009

8981 80

9085 86

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ireland GB Rest of EU

For the three months that ended December 2008 retail sales in the U.S. of

Chinese herbal supplements increased by

6%.Source: www.us.infores.com

Page 39: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

Drivers Sub-trends

Finding balanceLooking for balance in nutrition, diet and lifestyle

Image controlManaging weight and external appearance

Boosting the bodyStrategies to protect against physical illness and disease

Scientific advances

Increasing availability of information

Increasing life expectancy

Coping strategiesUsing or excluding products in a response to modern-day ailments

Managing weight and external appearance

Pure and freshSeeking reassurance from Mother NatureGrowing public and media

focus on health and image

Guiltless vicesMitigating the effects of indulgence

Page 40: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Boosting the body

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Strategies to protect against physical illness and disease

Defence thanks to everyday foods

Kill it before it happens

The superfood

THEN NOW

Page 41: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Finding balance

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Looking for balance in nutrition, diet and lifestyle

Good mood wineYoga on-the-goLaughter helps people find happiness

THEN NOW

Page 42: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Image control

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Managing weight and external appearance

Full for longerSilky skin and hair from your yogurt

Collagen marshmallows

THEN NOW

Page 43: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Pure and fresh

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Seeking reassurance from Mother Nature

New levels of natural

Greater purityThe organic revolution

THEN NOW

Page 44: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Coping strategies

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Using or excluding products in a response to modern-day illnesses

Tolerant indulgencesHay fever prevention rice

Protection from UV rays

THEN NOW

Page 45: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Guiltless vices

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Mitigating the effects of indulgence

No cholesterol worries

Creamy goodnessEven lower fat

THEN NOW

Page 46: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

POINTS TO PONDER

Navigating the challengesof today

Planning for the longer term

• Can your product help boost the body against disease and infection?

• How can you support consumers’

• What new ingredients can you use to help boost the body against disease and infection?

• How can you support a balanced lifestyle that treats the health and wellness of the mind and body as

• How can you support consumers’ desire for a little indulgence, but help to reduce the downside?

lifestyle that treats the health and wellness of the mind and body as one?

• How can you ensure that your manufacturing process keeps the food as close to its natural state as possible?

• Can you develop specialist variations on your products that serve the needs of consumers struggling with modern day illnesses?

Page 47: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

“I like to pursue better value, to help maintain my lifestyle and to get the most from the money I have”

Page 48: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

From trading down and trading up, to a pursuit for greater value through all aspects of our purchasing

People are focusing more on value in all their purchase choices…

Value has become a more complex equation…

A strong desire for indulgence remains but, on a smaller scale.

I usually choose the cheapest products available (Disagree)

45

2008 2009% Disagree

Sales at discount retailer Aldi climbed by 14.8% in 2008 compared to the previous year, with an

overall market share of 3%.

Source: www.guardian.co.uk 2009Source: Global MONITOR 2009

40

31

20

38

31

23

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ireland GB Rest of EU

L’Oreal recently reported growth of 5.3% in like-for-like sales of its lipstick

lines. Source: marieclaire.co.uk 2009

Page 49: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

Drivers Sub-trends

Accessible luxuryLuxury items at more everyday prices

Exclusive choicesThe demand for exclusivity and rarity

Value seekingThe deepening desire for good value

Increasing availability of information

Rise of new media and communication technologies

Growing market competition and choice

Expert statusGrowth in pursuit of knowledge and discernment for identity and status

The demand for exclusivity and rarity

Counselled consumptionThe rise of specialist advisers and peer reviews for all consumption matters

Economic anxieties

Just right for meThe shaping of products and services to meet individual needs

Page 50: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Value seeking

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

The deepening desire for good value

Prices at your finger tips

Share the costBuy together

THEN NOW

Page 51: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Accessible luxury

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Luxury items at more everyday prices

Eating in is the new eating out

Everyday just got better

Designer clothes at high street prices

THEN NOW

Page 52: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Exclusive choices

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

The demand for exclusivity and luxury

Around for a short time

Hidden storesProcessed by cats

THEN NOW

Page 53: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Counselled consumption

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

The rise of specialist advisers and peer reviews for all consumption matters

Consumer coachesDigital advisorsConsumer ratings

THEN NOW

Page 54: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Expert status

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Growth in pursuit of knowledge and discernment for identity and status

Michelin standard cooking Expert shavesWine connoisseurs

THEN NOW

Page 55: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Just right for me

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

The shaping of products and services to meet individual needs

My own recipe Mixing your flavourIn my image

THEN NOW

Page 56: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

POINTS TO PONDER

Navigating the challengesof today

Planning for the longer term

• Can you more effectively communicate your value for money proposition to consumers?

• How can you position luxury and

• Could people take a stake in parts of your production process?

• Can you add value to your product range so that it gives people a little more luxury in their everyday lives?

• How can you position luxury and indulgence as an everyday lifestyle choice and necessary treat in harder financial times?

• How can you help consumers learn more about your products and the expert skills that go into making them?

little more luxury in their everyday lives?

• How can you form communities of interest and knowledge around your products?

Page 57: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

“I am looking for products and brands that are real and authentic, because they have stood the test of time and remained true to their heritage; they provide me with

comfort and reassurance.”

Page 58: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

From an opportunity to explore and embrace tradition and heritage to a way to cope and find stability and comfort in

uncertain times

The past offers us something real and more simple…

A deepening connection with our food…

Latest research commissioned by home insurer LV also revealed

that for every UK

There is a desire to re-learn what the past taught us.

“Convenience food

70

I wish more brands would bring back versions of products they

offered years ago% Agree

that for every UK allotment plot there are 30 people waiting to get their hands on one.

Source: The Independent June 2009

food manufacturers will need to adjust to the

fact that people are re-skilling and learning

home economic skills.”

Ethan Sinick, MD MVI Management

Ventures

Source: Global MONITOR 2009

55

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30

40

50

60

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Ireland GB Rest of EU

Page 59: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

Drivers Sub-trends

Celebrating tradition:Resurgence of respect for tradition and heritage

Craftsmanship:Rising interest in the people and artisan skills behind products

Back to basics:Going back to the way life used to be

Economic anxieties

Declining trust in governments and big business

Rising consumer curiosity and desire for transparency

Passion for place:Growing interest in where things come from as a mark of quality and authenticity

Reframing tradition and heritage:A modern take on the past

behind products

Behind the scenes:Transparency as a mark of quality and trust

Rising globalisation

Page 60: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Back to basics

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Going back to the way life used to be

New ways to growLearning traditional skills

Classic food

THEN NOW

Page 61: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Celebrating tradition

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Resurgence of respect for tradition and heritage

With you through the good and bad times

Replaying the pastOld favourites

THEN NOW

Page 62: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND:Craftsmanship

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Rising interest in the people and artisan skills behind products

Choose your craftsperson

The craftsman’s code Preserving the craft

THEN NOW

Page 63: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Behind the scenes

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Transparency as a mark of quality and trust

Watch it growSee the farmSee how it is made

THEN NOW

Page 64: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Passion for place

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

Growing interest in where things come from as a mark of quality and authenticity

Own the original sourceWithin 100 milesMarks of trust

THEN NOW

Page 65: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

SUB-TREND: Reframing tradition and heritage

HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?

A modern take on the past

Back by popular demand

The drink from your childhood

With modern performance

THEN NOW

Page 66: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

POINTS TO PONDER

Navigating the challengesof today

Planning for the longer term

• Can you help people to rediscover or learn the practical wisdom of the past?

• What parts of your tradition and

• What traditional skills can you help preserve for future generations?

• Can you make your production processes more transparent? • What parts of your tradition and

heritage can you leverage to maintain a strong connection with your consumers and highlight your quality?

• How strong are your local connections?

processes more transparent?

• Can people play a greater role in the production of the products i.e. help at harvesting time or other parts of the production process?

• Could people be suppliers of local raw ingredients as well as being your consumers?

• Are there traditional products and flavours that you could revive?

Page 67: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

Feeling the Pinch 4: The outlook for 2011

A strategic report on the challenges for the Irish Food and Drinks industry in

the coming year

Page 68: Ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith

Available on:www.bordbia.ie