ideagenfoodnpdcavan julian smith
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
Why trends?
Companies that ride the currents succeed; those that swim against them usually struggle. Identifying the currents and developing strategies to navigate strategies to navigate them is vital. (McKinsey & Company)
Objectives of the Consumer Lifestyle Trends programme
• A framework for making sense of change
• Bring consumers to the heart of the business decision making
• A driver of more future-• A driver of more future-focused marketing
• Identify new opportunities and threats
• A source of inspiration and a spur for innovation
Identifying and defining the trends
A trends framework provides clarity and strategic focus on the change that will impact your business
Food &
Drink
Related
sectors
Trends that are long–
term or distant
from the category
Trends that are
current or close to
the category
How we identify and understand trends
Top Down Can we identify substantial Drivers behind this trend that suggest it will continue?
Empirical evidence from a range of sources, including Global MONITOR, a quantitative study
An understanding of the macro forces shaping the lives of consumers such as social, technological, economic, environmental and political factors
Can we see evidence of this trend at work in brand or human behaviour or attitudes?
Bottom Up
TREND Validated through research
including Global MONITOR, a quantitative study covering 20 markets and 90% of global GDP
Qualitative depth interviews in Ireland and GB
GlobalStreetscaping network: independent, discerning, culturally connected individuals who are spread throughout 46 cities in 28 countries
covering every continent of the world
Sub-trend
Driver
Driver
Detailing a trend
Sustained change in consumer
attitudes, needs, wants and behaviours
Sub-trend
Driver
Ways in which the trends are playing
out in today’s world
Sub-trend
The forces and energies shaping the trend
Many sub-trends remain relevant, but have evolved
We have told the story of how each sub-trend has evolved through an evolution arrow
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
THENWhat were the defining characteristics of this sub-trend in 2006?
NOWWhat are the defining
characteristics of the sub-trend today and what is emerging at
the edges?
The ‘updated’ Consumer Lifestyle Trends
“I want to be in control of my health and wellness, to manage or improve it through making better choices”
“I want to stay in control of my busy life and make sure I am at my best for the challenges the day presents”
“I am looking for products and brands that are real and authentic, because they have stood the test of time
and remained true to their heritage; they provide me with comfort and reassurance”
“I like to pursue better value, to help maintain my lifestyle and to get the most from the money I have”
“I would like products that create less negative impact on the world; I want choices that make me feel good
without harming my wallet ”
“I need to balance the stresses in my everyday life with experiences that are fun and fulfilling”
“I want to stay in control of my busy life and make sure that I am at my best for whatever the day presents”
From an opportunity to fit more in and cut down on life’s chores, to restoring control and taking time out
2008 2009
My life is so busy these days that it is a constant challenge to manage my time effectively
The pace of life has eased a little as the economy has slowed…
Where money can be saved, people have found a practical solution…
In Italy, sales of dough to make bread and pizza bases at home are
soaring, as people try to
Time out to re-charge is increasingly important.
Source: Global MONITOR 2009
50
424645
37 38
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ireland GB Rest of EU
2008 2009% agree soaring, as people try to
cut down expenses on eating out.
A recent study concluded that day time naps produce significant advantages to brain
concentration. Source: www.guardian.co.uk
Drivers Sub-trends
Conveniently thereProviding ever improved convenience
Simple solutionsRemoving complexity or saving time
Changing working patterns
Rise of new media and communication technologies
Economic anxietiesWinding downSlowing down and escaping to recharge the body and mind
Always with youCarrying with you what you need
Peak performanceMaximising your physical and mental performance during the day
Increasing mobility
SUB-TREND: Simple solutions
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Removing complexity or saving time
The base for a practical solution
Packaging and design work harder to make
life easy
Just add…
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Conveniently there
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Providing ever improved convenience
We will be with you shortly
Here for a short whileJust where you need it
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Always with you
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Carrying with you what you need
Spice up your coffee Breakfast made easyOn-the-go solutions
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Peak performance
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Maximising your physical and mental performance throughout the day
Energy boosting designed for your
specific needs
Targeted types of energy
It gives you ‘wings’
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Winding down
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Slowing down and escaping to recharge the body and mind
New ingredientsSleep concertsRelaxing bath time
THEN NOW
POINTS TO PONDER
Navigating the challengesof today
Planning for the longer term
• How can your products offer convenience but help people to be resourceful in saving money?
• How can your products help
• How do you ensure that your products are accessible on people’s daily paths?
• What formats can you provide that create portability and on-the-go usage?
• How can your products help people unwind or take time out? What types of experiences could you offer through retail environments?
that create portability and on-the-go usage?
• How can you help people better manage their energy needs during the day?
“I need to balance the stresses in my everyday life with experiences that are fun and fulfilling”
From limitless enthusiasm for new experiences no matter what the cost to a more considered approach of looking for moments
of fun, novelty and respite in everyday life
There is less money for indulgent experiences…
But people still need a way to release pressure…
Importance in your personal life today: Having
Fun
82 8090
2008 2009% agree
Food continues to be a great outlet for creativity, exploration, and play.
“We are eating
Source: Global MONITOR 2009
7772
60
82 80
68
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Ireland GB Rest of EU
Remy-Cointreau has reported a 7.5% fall in turnover in the second
quarter of 2009, reflecting the fall in
global champagne sales Source: spirits.drinks-business-
review.com
“We are eating in more and wanting to re-create the restaurant
experience at home”
Gillian Carter, Editor, BBC Good Food Magazine
Drivers Sub-trends
New boundaries: Experimenting with new combinations or finding new horizons
Co-creation:
Time to play:Growing importance of play and spontaneity in daily life
Changing working patterns
Growing knowledge of the world’s opportunities
Economic anxieties Me moments:Indulgent experiences that help to lift the spirits
Co-creation:The enjoyment and fun of being part of the creative process
Stimulating the senses:More excitement and sensorial experiences from the small things in life
Increasing life expectancy
SUB-TREND: Time to play
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Growing importance of play and spontaneity in daily life
Free moneyClothes swappingVirtual challenges
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: New boundaries
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Experimenting with new combinations or finding new horizons
Underground diningDifferent experiencesNew fusions
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Co-creation
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
The enjoyment and fun of being part of the creative process
Gaining a stake in success
Expert consumersFreedom to choose and customise
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Stimulating the senses
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
More excitement and sensorial experiences from the small things in life
Unknown flavoursThe design experienceDining in the dark
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Me moments
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Indulgent experiences that help to lift the spirits
Family moments together
Go home gorgeousLost in the moment
THEN NOW
POINTS TO PONDER
• How can you communicate how your products bring a sense of fun or play to people’s everyday lives?
• Can you offer a more cost
Navigating the challengesof today
Planning for the longer term
• How can you create more of an experience through using your product?
• What sorts of new sensory • Can you offer a more cost effective experience versus a more expensive choice?
• How can you encourage consumers to play a greater role in creating your products?
• Can your products help to provide a respite from the stresses of life?
• What sorts of new sensory experiences can you offer to consumers via your products?
• How can you help facilitate greater connection in the home around meal preparation or eating?
“I would like products that create less negative impact on the world; I want choices that make me feel good without
harming my wallet ”
From an active and altruistic interest in making the world a better place to a greater focus on caring about ‘close to home’
rather than the world at large
The welfare of the wider world seems less important…
Some positive choices have had to be put on hold…
According to data from TNS World Panel, sales of organic produce have
Charity now has more of a ‘homely’ feel.
Climate change is the biggest single problem facing the world
today
2008 2009% Agree organic produce have fallen by up to a third since the start of the
recession
McDonald’s local menus continue to prove extremely popular.
Underpinning this offer is an emphasis on the use of locally sourced ingredients
Source: Global MONITOR 2009
59
50
67
5245
65
0
20
40
60
80
Ireland GB Rest of EU
2008 2009
Drivers Sub-trends
War on wasteReducing the wasteful results of consumption
Climate conscious
Resource worriesLiving in a world where resources are increasingly in short supply
Growing awareness of environmental and social
issues
Economic anxieties
Declining trust in governments and big business
Fair treatmentTreating animals and people fairly in the production process
Climate consciousProtecting the world’s environment and biodiversity
Good causesSupporting a worthy cause through purchase choices
Growing impact of resource shortages
SUB-TREND: Resource worries
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
•Living in a world where resources are increasingly in short supply
Renewable energyOld fashioned deliveryNovel solutions
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: War on waste
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
•Reducing the wasteful results of consumption
Repurposed plasticWaste for plant foodOrigami folds
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Climate conscious
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Protecting the world’s environment and biodiversity
Reducing as well as off-setting
From the rainforest to help the rainforest
Off-setting
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Good causes
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Supporting a worthy cause through purchase choices
Democratic choices for the community
Helping the needy support themselves
Raising money for good causes
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Fair treatment
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Treating animals and people fairly in the production process
Fairtrade everythingFree the chickenFair pay for workers
THEN NOW
POINTS TO PONDER
Navigating the challengesof today
Planning for the longer term
• Can you leverage your environmental credentials to reinforce the value and quality of your products?
• Can you turn the waste you create
• How can you reduce the environmental impacts of your products?
• How can you minimise waste in • Can you turn the waste you create for consumers into a positive resource for people to use?
• What are your local credentials and what is the wider impact of your business on your community?
• How can you ensure that people and animals involved in the production of food are treated fairly?
• How can you minimise waste in the production process and help people minimise the waste created by using your products?
• How transparent is your sourcing? Could you use more local sources for key ingredients?
“I want to be in control of my health and wellness, to manage or improve it through making better choices”
From enhancing health to a focus on ensuring good health in the short and longer term
Health is still a top concern for people, companies and regulatory authorities…
A more balanced lifestyle approach is emerging …
More traditional and natural solutions are increasingly popular.
Change4Life is a society-wide movement that aims to prevent people from
I believe that looking after my health is entirely my own
responsibility
% Agree 2008 2009to prevent people from becoming overweight by encouraging them to eat better and move more.
Source: www.dh.gov.uk
Source: Global MONITOR 2009
8981 80
9085 86
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ireland GB Rest of EU
For the three months that ended December 2008 retail sales in the U.S. of
Chinese herbal supplements increased by
6%.Source: www.us.infores.com
Drivers Sub-trends
Finding balanceLooking for balance in nutrition, diet and lifestyle
Image controlManaging weight and external appearance
Boosting the bodyStrategies to protect against physical illness and disease
Scientific advances
Increasing availability of information
Increasing life expectancy
Coping strategiesUsing or excluding products in a response to modern-day ailments
Managing weight and external appearance
Pure and freshSeeking reassurance from Mother NatureGrowing public and media
focus on health and image
Guiltless vicesMitigating the effects of indulgence
SUB-TREND: Boosting the body
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Strategies to protect against physical illness and disease
Defence thanks to everyday foods
Kill it before it happens
The superfood
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Finding balance
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Looking for balance in nutrition, diet and lifestyle
Good mood wineYoga on-the-goLaughter helps people find happiness
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Image control
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Managing weight and external appearance
Full for longerSilky skin and hair from your yogurt
Collagen marshmallows
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Pure and fresh
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Seeking reassurance from Mother Nature
New levels of natural
Greater purityThe organic revolution
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Coping strategies
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Using or excluding products in a response to modern-day illnesses
Tolerant indulgencesHay fever prevention rice
Protection from UV rays
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Guiltless vices
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Mitigating the effects of indulgence
No cholesterol worries
Creamy goodnessEven lower fat
THEN NOW
POINTS TO PONDER
Navigating the challengesof today
Planning for the longer term
• Can your product help boost the body against disease and infection?
• How can you support consumers’
• What new ingredients can you use to help boost the body against disease and infection?
• How can you support a balanced lifestyle that treats the health and wellness of the mind and body as
• How can you support consumers’ desire for a little indulgence, but help to reduce the downside?
lifestyle that treats the health and wellness of the mind and body as one?
• How can you ensure that your manufacturing process keeps the food as close to its natural state as possible?
• Can you develop specialist variations on your products that serve the needs of consumers struggling with modern day illnesses?
“I like to pursue better value, to help maintain my lifestyle and to get the most from the money I have”
From trading down and trading up, to a pursuit for greater value through all aspects of our purchasing
People are focusing more on value in all their purchase choices…
Value has become a more complex equation…
A strong desire for indulgence remains but, on a smaller scale.
I usually choose the cheapest products available (Disagree)
45
2008 2009% Disagree
Sales at discount retailer Aldi climbed by 14.8% in 2008 compared to the previous year, with an
overall market share of 3%.
Source: www.guardian.co.uk 2009Source: Global MONITOR 2009
40
31
20
38
31
23
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Ireland GB Rest of EU
L’Oreal recently reported growth of 5.3% in like-for-like sales of its lipstick
lines. Source: marieclaire.co.uk 2009
Drivers Sub-trends
Accessible luxuryLuxury items at more everyday prices
Exclusive choicesThe demand for exclusivity and rarity
Value seekingThe deepening desire for good value
Increasing availability of information
Rise of new media and communication technologies
Growing market competition and choice
Expert statusGrowth in pursuit of knowledge and discernment for identity and status
The demand for exclusivity and rarity
Counselled consumptionThe rise of specialist advisers and peer reviews for all consumption matters
Economic anxieties
Just right for meThe shaping of products and services to meet individual needs
SUB-TREND: Value seeking
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
The deepening desire for good value
Prices at your finger tips
Share the costBuy together
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Accessible luxury
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Luxury items at more everyday prices
Eating in is the new eating out
Everyday just got better
Designer clothes at high street prices
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Exclusive choices
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
The demand for exclusivity and luxury
Around for a short time
Hidden storesProcessed by cats
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Counselled consumption
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
The rise of specialist advisers and peer reviews for all consumption matters
Consumer coachesDigital advisorsConsumer ratings
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Expert status
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Growth in pursuit of knowledge and discernment for identity and status
Michelin standard cooking Expert shavesWine connoisseurs
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Just right for me
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
The shaping of products and services to meet individual needs
My own recipe Mixing your flavourIn my image
THEN NOW
POINTS TO PONDER
Navigating the challengesof today
Planning for the longer term
• Can you more effectively communicate your value for money proposition to consumers?
• How can you position luxury and
• Could people take a stake in parts of your production process?
• Can you add value to your product range so that it gives people a little more luxury in their everyday lives?
• How can you position luxury and indulgence as an everyday lifestyle choice and necessary treat in harder financial times?
• How can you help consumers learn more about your products and the expert skills that go into making them?
little more luxury in their everyday lives?
• How can you form communities of interest and knowledge around your products?
“I am looking for products and brands that are real and authentic, because they have stood the test of time and remained true to their heritage; they provide me with
comfort and reassurance.”
From an opportunity to explore and embrace tradition and heritage to a way to cope and find stability and comfort in
uncertain times
The past offers us something real and more simple…
A deepening connection with our food…
Latest research commissioned by home insurer LV also revealed
that for every UK
There is a desire to re-learn what the past taught us.
“Convenience food
70
I wish more brands would bring back versions of products they
offered years ago% Agree
that for every UK allotment plot there are 30 people waiting to get their hands on one.
Source: The Independent June 2009
food manufacturers will need to adjust to the
fact that people are re-skilling and learning
home economic skills.”
Ethan Sinick, MD MVI Management
Ventures
Source: Global MONITOR 2009
55
61
54
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ireland GB Rest of EU
Drivers Sub-trends
Celebrating tradition:Resurgence of respect for tradition and heritage
Craftsmanship:Rising interest in the people and artisan skills behind products
Back to basics:Going back to the way life used to be
Economic anxieties
Declining trust in governments and big business
Rising consumer curiosity and desire for transparency
Passion for place:Growing interest in where things come from as a mark of quality and authenticity
Reframing tradition and heritage:A modern take on the past
behind products
Behind the scenes:Transparency as a mark of quality and trust
Rising globalisation
SUB-TREND: Back to basics
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Going back to the way life used to be
New ways to growLearning traditional skills
Classic food
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Celebrating tradition
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Resurgence of respect for tradition and heritage
With you through the good and bad times
Replaying the pastOld favourites
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND:Craftsmanship
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Rising interest in the people and artisan skills behind products
Choose your craftsperson
The craftsman’s code Preserving the craft
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Behind the scenes
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Transparency as a mark of quality and trust
Watch it growSee the farmSee how it is made
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Passion for place
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
Growing interest in where things come from as a mark of quality and authenticity
Own the original sourceWithin 100 milesMarks of trust
THEN NOW
SUB-TREND: Reframing tradition and heritage
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
A modern take on the past
Back by popular demand
The drink from your childhood
With modern performance
THEN NOW
POINTS TO PONDER
Navigating the challengesof today
Planning for the longer term
• Can you help people to rediscover or learn the practical wisdom of the past?
• What parts of your tradition and
• What traditional skills can you help preserve for future generations?
• Can you make your production processes more transparent? • What parts of your tradition and
heritage can you leverage to maintain a strong connection with your consumers and highlight your quality?
• How strong are your local connections?
processes more transparent?
• Can people play a greater role in the production of the products i.e. help at harvesting time or other parts of the production process?
• Could people be suppliers of local raw ingredients as well as being your consumers?
• Are there traditional products and flavours that you could revive?
Feeling the Pinch 4: The outlook for 2011
A strategic report on the challenges for the Irish Food and Drinks industry in
the coming year
Available on:www.bordbia.ie