idc at ces 2015 · idc at ces 2015 day 1 – jan. 6 . cannibalize this! ... device internet...
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IDC at CES 2015 Day 1 – Jan. 6
Cannibalize This! The Evolution of Usage and Its Impact on the Device Market
Tom Mainelli, IDC Program VP Twitter: @tommainelli
1. Historic Device Jobs
2. The Rise of Tablets
3. Cannibalization Writ Large
4. Essential Guidance
Agenda
3
Once Upon a Time, a Mobile Phone’s Job to be Done was Pretty Clear…
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And the PC Did, Well, Everything Else
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The Arrival of the Modern Smartphone Had Little Initial Impact Upon PCs
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Total WW Smartphone & PC Shipments From 2004-2010
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0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
PCs Smartphones
11.4% 5-year CAGR
40.2% 5-year CAGR
Source: IDC Mobile Phone and PC Trackers
Then the Tablet Was Reborn…
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What Do I Do With It?
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I Want One!
Device Internet Activities – WW (2012)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
By Computer By Smartphone By Tablet
© IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on Twitter: @IDC 10 PC: n = 46,308 Smartphone: n = 28,648 Tablet: n = 10,267
QI5: Which of the following activities have you done on the Internet in the past month for personal reasons?
Source: ConsumerScape 360°, 2012
Device Internet Activities – WW (2013)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
By Computer By Smartphone By Tablet
© IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on Twitter: @IDC 11 PC: n = 46,308 Smartphone: n = 28,648 Tablet: n = 10,267
QI5: Which of the following activities have you done on the Internet in the past month for personal reasons?
Source: ConsumerScape 360°, 2012
Total WW Smartphone, PC, & Tablet Shipments From 2010-2013
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0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013
PCs Smartphones Tablets
49.6% 3-year CAGR
-4.2% 3-year CAGR
124.8% 3-year CAGR
Source: IDC Mobile Phone, Tablet, and PC Trackers
2014: The Tablet Market Hits a Wall
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WW growth rates drop from 52.5% YoY in 2013 to 7.2%, and WW iPad shipments actually declined YoY for the first time.
In mature markets people don’t stop liking and
using their tablets, they just stop buying new ones. Lifecycles extend as people find new jobs to be done for old tablets.
In 2014 the Phablet (5.5-inch+ phone) enters
the mainstream, and for some it obviates the need for a tablet. Big phones are now cannibalizing tablet shipments and usage.
Why Tablet Lifetimes Have Extended
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2015: Artificial Market Silos Fracture
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What is a PC? What if 20% of shipments are non Windows? What if the keyboard is optional? What if its cheaper than a tablet?
What is a Tablet? What if it has a larger
screen, a keyboard and multiple-app viewing? What if you can make voice calls?
What is a Smartphone? What if it is docked
with a monitor at your desk? What if it is strapped to your wrist with a 1-inch screen?
Cannibalization impacts ALL categories
CYOU (Choose Your Own Usage)
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Consumers don’t care what WE call these devices, they’re just looking for products that let them complete the jobs to be done.
As hardware iteration slows and lifetimes
extend, devices will move between users and between usage models.
Personal data, stored locally & in the cloud, is
what becomes most important to people. Driving replacement cycles in existing markets
becomes much more difficult.
Finding Success in A Changing Market
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Create higher quality, design-focused apps that do fewer things, but do them well on a range of devices.
Increase device segmentation, acknowledging
that the mid-market will be squeezed between general-purpose value devices and premium, purpose-built ones.
Build services that tie together a person’s
devices to drive a more unified and enjoyable experience across them.
Show a willingness to cannibalize your market
share today for success tomorrow
Key Examples… Shipping Today
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Total WW Smartphone, PC, Tablet, & Smart Wearable Shipment Forecast
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0
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Smartphones PCs Tablets Smart Wearables
Source: IDC Mobile Phone, Tablet, and PC Trackers
Essential Guidance
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A device’s job to be done will evolve over its useful lifespan, plan for this to happen
Cannibalization will become more
pervasive, and will have a lasting impact on growth rates
Matching services & apps to the
hardware people have is the key to long-term success
You must cannibalize your own
products, or somebody else will
Predicting Wearables in 2015: Where Momentum, Desire, and Value Lie
Ramon Llamas, Research Manager
2014 in the Rearview Mirror
21.0 million units shipped worldwide
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Entry of Apple, Android Wear, and Microsoft
Still a solution in search of a problem?
Watches taking off
Can’t seem to get enough of health trackers Google Glass, where are you?
Yes, but it is becoming clearer Health is getting better, just scratching surface
Applications are just getting started
2015: Year of the Watch, Or S1? Apple Watch: a clear first-generation device (so far)
• UI is interesting, but altogether on par with others • App story yet to be told • Competition can still breathe
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Apple’s results in 2015: 22 million units shipped • 85%/14.5%/0.5% split among Watch/Sport/Edition • Reaches 7.7% of worldwide iPhone installed base • Moving forward: replacement rates.
The future of Apple wearable computing: S1 processor Entire computer on a single chip Enables a wide range of wearables beyond Watch: eyewear, headphones,
screenless bands S1 chip to maintain growth for Apple as iPhone, iPad slow down
Glass Pivots away from Consumers, Embraces Commercial Oppty. Pieces falling into place
• Launch of Glass At Work in 2014 • Multiple companies showing interest • Same underlying theme: productivity
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Verticals ripe for wearables • Energy • Manufacturing • Public safety • Health care
Partnership with Intel • Intel with ever-expanding wearables ecosystem • Leaves door open to return to consumers
The Next Hot Wearable: Shirts The wearable that’s already a wearable!
• We know shirts, we know wearables • Lots of sensor contact, close to vital organs • Smart textiles more durable, sensitive
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Yes, it is another health/fitness tracker Monitor for SIDS Real-time alerts to family, physicians Monitor workouts/hazards for athletes of different stripes
The Next Hot Wearable: Shirts Which of the following activities are you most interested in for shirts? Tracking my physical activities during the day Tracking my sleep at night Learning about my UV exposure Contact physician if there is a medical emergency Connecting via GPS Tracking calories I consume Gaining insights on how to live a healthier life Insights about possible long-term illness Monitoring a chronic disease Insights about possible short-term illness Comparing my results against others’ results Monitoring my medication intake
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IDC ConsumerScape 360 Emerging Technology Survey, Dececmber 2014. N = 252
30% 30 24 23 21 21 18 17 14 13 13 7
Applications to Reach 8 K 2014 wearables app market in review
• 2.5 K applications • Pebble and Tizen led market (~1K each) • Android Wear, Glass following with low 100
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Developers bullish on wearable apps • 87.9% interested in apps for business • 79.7% interested in health/fitness apps • 75.0% believe wearables will be a priority for app developers
Keep close eye on applications distribution by platforms Microsoft offers Health on WP, Android, and iOS Breaks down the sandbox walls quickly Trouble for Apple?
Mobile Developer Survey, October 2014. N = 2197
IT Decision Maker Survey, October 2014. N = 121
Project Ara: Wearables Edition Google broadens Project Ara to include wearables
• Processor • Sensors (GPS, accelerometer, ambient light, UV) • Camera • Battery
Bringing Project Ara partners – Rockchip, Lattice
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Larger implications • Recognizes that style changes, so can device • Reduces e-waste • Leaves space for future development • Slows down replacement rate/encourages use
Fewer Health and Fitness Trackers, More Wearables 2.0 Applications Not all health and fitness trackers will make it
• Lots of look-alike devices, experiences • Gold is in harvesting data
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Wearables 2.0 applications take off • Data collected and communicated in real-time to HC providers • Diagnose long-term and short-term diseases • Major investment by major platforms
Approach with caution
• Wearable or medical device? • High degree of reliance on sensors
BlackBerry Gets into Wearables BlackBerry history and DNA a perfect fit
• Mission-critical hardware • Messaging • Security • Already an installed base of enterprise users
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Software is key differentiator • Deep developer/ISV community focusing on enterprise • BlackBerry as a software-focused company • Emphasis on security
Wearables Forecast 2014 - 2018
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Basic Wearables Smart Wearables
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(M) Basic Wearables are those devices that do not run 3rd party applications. They function the same exact way as they did first out of the box. Fitbit devices, Jawbone Up, and OM Signal shirts are examples that fall into this category.
Smart Wearables are those devices that run 3rd party applications. Users can download them either directly or through a smart compute device. Pebble Watch, Moto 360, and Google Glass are examples that fall into this category.
Source: Worldwide Wearable Technology Device 2014 – 2018 Forecast, Dec 2014 253091
Wearables Forecast 2014 - 2018
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Clothing Eyewear Modular Wristwear Other
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(M)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
($B)
Source: Worldwide Wearable Technology Device 2014 – 2018 Forecast, Dec 2014 253091
Essential Guidance Experiment with form and function.
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Wearable applications will be in high demand. Where’s yours?
Health is the low-hanging fruit for wearables. It’s also just getting started. The enterprise opportunity is warming up quickly. Plenty of problems waiting to be solved.
Contact Information
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Ramon T. Llamas (p) 508.935.4736 (e) [email protected] (t) idcrllamas
Home IoT: A Long Time Coming, An Exciting Road Ahead
Jonathan Gaw Research Manager
Connected Consumer
Agenda
Where we are, where we want to go What consumers tell us How fast, how high Essential Guidance
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IDC’s Definition of Home IoT
The Internet of Things is “a network of networks of uniquely identifiable end points (or things) that communicate without human interaction (by either wired or wireless access) using IP connectivity.” Home IoT solutions meet the above definition and are also designed to be used primarily in the home by a consumer.
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Where We Are
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Where We Want To Go
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What Consumers Tell Us: Pragmatic Over Prosaic
0% 20% 40% 60%
Have sensors monitor for fire, smoke, water, or CO2 at home and report to you wherever you are
Have sensors monitor the opening and closing of doors and windows and report activity to you wherever you are
See and record who comes to the front door using a video camera
Have multiple changes occur in the home simultaneously as a result of triggers
Lock and unlock your doors through your smartphone when you're away from home
Control all lights, home appliances, and entertainment devices in my home from anywhere
Change lighting, home appliances or entertainment device settings while I am away from home
Automatically adjust the use of appliances and temperature based on real-time energy prices Highly
Interested
Already Doing It
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Q. Imagine your home's thermostat, home entertainment system, doors and lights all were connected to the Internet. They could be controlled both in traditional ways and through devices like smart phones, tablets, and personal computers. How interested would you be in using the system to do each of the following?:
Note: N=1,122 U.S. adults Source: IDC ConsumerScape 360 Emerging Technology Survey, December 2014
What Consumers Tell Us: Cost and Reliability
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Cost of on-going use Cost of installation Cost of equipment
Ease of use Reliability
Overall value Ease of installation Overall experience
I need more information about them More uses for home control
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Q. Thinking about what would make you more interested in home control applications to get you to actually purchase and set-up such a system, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 = Not at all important and 10 = Extremely Important, how would you rate the following in terms of needing to improve before you would purchase a home control system?
Note: N= 681 respondents who gave an interest score of 8 or higher for any home automation application, but has not actually implemented a home automation application.
Source: IDC ConsumerScape 360 Emerging Technology Survey, December 2014
What Consumers Tell Us: “I Can Do It!”
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Program a thermostat
Turning on and off a
water heater
Install a new front door
lock
Replace a light switch
Replace a thermostat
Have done task previously
Comfortable with task
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Q. On a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being "Not at all comfortable" and 10 being "Extremely comfortable", how comfortable would you be doing each of the following activities without hiring help? If you have done so previously, please also indicate that.
Note: N=1,122 U.S. adults. Source: IDC ConsumerScape 360 Emerging Technology Survey, December 2014
Drivers The cost side: Moore’s Law The benefits side: Metcalfe’s Law Mobile devices ecosystem Consumer technology maturity
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Home IoT Forecast, 2013-2019
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-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Hom
e Io
T So
lutio
ns In
stal
led
(000
s)
Hom
e Io
T H
ouse
hold
s (0
00s)
U.S. Home IoT Households
Worldwide Home IoT Households
U.S. Home IoT Solutions Installed
Worldwide Home IoT Solutions Installed
Source: Worldwide and U.S. Home Automation, Monitoring and Control Forecast, 2013-2019 (January 2015)
Essential Guidance
If you want to go fast, go alone …
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If you want to go far, go together.
Contact me
Jonathan Gaw Research Manager Connected Consumer 612-729-4730 [email protected] Twitter @jonathangaw
47
How Low Power Intelligent Silicon Enables Home IoT and Wearables
Mario Morales CES 2015
Agenda
Home IoT Opportunities and Challenges for Tech Suppliers
Low power is where innovation still needs to happen
Enabling Technologies: Sensors to processors Market Forecast Essential guidance
Transforming the Home into a platform that engages the consumer
Starts with remote monitoring and control Connected lifestyle beyond our phone Health and well being through constant monitoring and analytic driven systems Providing personal and engaging experiences
Addressing Home IoT Opportunities and Challenges
Core challenges to bridging the analog and digital world for the consumer
User engagement begins with management and convenience Trust, security, and privacy Contextual awareness Low power and cost Smaller form factors Engaging user interfaces
Extending IoT to the Home – The Home IoT Opportunity
Telephone
Power Line Cable Fiber
Cloud
Monitor, manage, and control the home Convert existing home products into connected systems and new device categories Service providers will provide a key channel into the home Energy consumption and integration are key challenges
Intersection of Fashion and Technology
Leverage relevant connected data around us
Suppliers and brands have an opportunity to redefine computing
Smart headsets always on always listening, more intuitive interaction, emergence of apps; wrist worn technology (fitness, fashion, safety, personal ID)
A highly scalable platform, from tech toy to powerful, personal system
Wearables – In Sync with Home IoT Applications Across Many Consumer Markets
Gaming
Smart Watches
Payment
52
Fitness & Healthcare
Home IoT and Wearables have multiple requirements for processing
Striking a balance between processing vs. power • ARM - Cortex M7 and optimized
single core Cortex-A processors • Imagination – MicroAptive and
InterAptive cores, Creator board, repositioning of networking products
• Intel (Atom and Quark) Local Intelligence needed for
creating contextual awareness
Smaller optimized cores, Linux and Android stacks enables scale of platforms
Processing
Driving transparent computing and HMI – Changing how we interact with devices
Bridging the physical and digital worlds – tracking our activity and managing our environment
Sensor suppliers and software partners expanding capabilities to capture data and enable context awareness
Sensors integrated in low power solutions
Analytics begins with sensors and enable engagement
Sensors & Actuators
Connectivity plays the critical role of bridging dispersed systems and wearables
Variety of combinations Key challenges
remains power consumption versus bandwidth and range
Silicon integration is the key way to reduce power and cost
Emerging standards drive interoperability and attempt to break through walled gardens
Connectivity
Market Forecasts
Home IoT Opportunity
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Syst
ems
Ship
men
ts (M
u)
Home Systems Unit Forecast
Smart Appliance Energy Mgt. Entertainment HVAC Lighting Security Gateway
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Inte
llige
nt S
yste
ms
Pene
trat
ion
Intelligent Systems Penetration In The Home
Smart Appliance Entertainment HVAC
Lighting Security Gateway
Source: IDC Embedded & Intelligent Systems Market Model, 2014
Note: Does not include Energy Mgt. due to 100% Intelligent Systems penetration.
Note: Home systems do not include STBs, digital surveillance cameras, or standard home networking devices. Core Systems have the potential for a CPU and generally include an HMI function
Home IoT-Connectivity Penetration
16% 23%
32% 41%
48% 54% 58%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Wearables Semiconductor Forecast by Type
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Rev
enue
s ($
M)
Semiconductor Revenue Forecast
Complex Accessories Smart Accessories Smart Wearables
Source: IDC Enabling Technologies and Semiconductor Research, 2014
2014-18 CAGR: Complex Accessories – 55% Smart Accessories – 129% Smart Wearables– 226%
Snapshot of Semiconductor Markets in 2019
5% 1%
26%
11%
7% 11%
46%
2019
IoT Wearables Mobile PC Tablet Auto Other
N=$389 B
CAGR
48% 50% 4% -3% 3% 10% 3%
Essential Guidance Suppliers must investment
in optimized platforms and domain expertise
Addressing Interoperability and low power consumption are key to enable scale of solutions-begins with intelligent silicon
Home IoT and Wearables Opportunity– is about engaging with the consumer
Over $10 Billion Semiconductor market by 2019
60