ict tools for social and economic development - nethope · ict tools for social and economic...
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ICT tools for social and
economic development
Presentation for NetHope
24th June 2014
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Introducing myself
International consultant: Broadband Infrastructure
(strategies and policies) Smart Grids
Trans-sector/Digital Economy
BuddeComm: CEO
Smart Grid Australia: Founder and Executive Director
Global Smart Grid Federation: Founding Board Member
United Nations: Special advisor to the ITU/UNESCO
Broadband Commission for Digital
Development
Clients: International investment houses
Governments
Industry
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BuddeComm Research Senior Analysts
• Global Research Kylie Wansink
• Africa Peter Lange
• Americas Lucia Bibolini
• Asia Peter Evans
• Australia Paul Budde
• Europe Henry Lancaster
• Middle East Kylie Wansink
• South Pacific Stephen McNamara
Research support team: Julie Cooney, Sue Grant, Ian Wood
In total close to 100 years of research experience
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Research Methodology
• Our research is based on both primary and secondary research.
• For this we employ senior analysts supported by a network of
experts, industry contacts and researchers from around the
world.
• Strong points are our strategic and policies analyses in relation
to the development of new fast broadband infrastructure (fixed
and mobile).
• Statistical data and strategic analyses of all aspects of the
telecommunications market and industry
• On the service side we specialise in areas such as: smart grids,
smart buildings, smart cities, e-commerce, e-health, e-learning,
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Subscribe to our weekly e-newsletter
www.budde.com.au
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Changing world of telecoms
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Societal changes
• Societies and economies are in transition.
• By 2050 there will be 9 billion people.
• We can’t manage the world as per 1950 with 2.5 billion people.
• Technology is increasingly putting the citizen in the driver’s seat.
• The market place is no longer local but global.
• Jobs from developed country will flow to developing countries.
• Massive sector transformation: healthcare, education, government,
energy.
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Economic changes
• Old society and business model are faltering: finance, retail, media, books.
• e-models are flourishing (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon).
• What makes the new models attractive: 50%+ lower costs.
• Key to success is digital productivity.
• Developed countries will have to transform its economy (new jobs)
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Market and industry development
• Internet broke vertical integrated model of telcos – Google
• iPhone - broke the vertical integrated mobile model
• OTT and Apps are now driving innovations and competition
• Telcos and mobile operators – infrastructure providers
• M2M, data centres and analytics are driving this further
• Infrastructure (broadband) back on government’s policy agenda
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Effects on major players
• Monopolisation in the US market – end of Net Neutrality
• Structural changes in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, several European countries
• Most telcos are relegated to utility providers (kicking and screaming)
• Real market power is now in the hands of the OTT/App industry
• Further structural changes will follow
• Healthcare, education, government services, energy will claim their own position
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Broader effects of change in technology
• Voice market will change (WhatApps) integration in e-models
• Apps will change entertainment and media markets (TV, movies, sport)
• ICT will transform energy market (distributed energy)
• Crowd funding, crowd sourcing are changing business, accommodation, healthcare
• Advertising will move to permission based marketing (from CRM to VRM)
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The Digital Economy and
Business Transformation in
Developing Economies
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United Nations Millennium Development Goals
• Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
• Achieve universal primary education
• Promote gender equality and empower women
• Reduce child mortality
• Improve maternal health
• Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
• Ensure environmental sustainability
• Develop a global partnership for development
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Broadband Commission – Action Plan
• Connecting broadband with the MDGs and knowledge societies
• Benefiting from transformational change
• Using transparent, fair, competitive, technology-neutral models
• Enabling content and applications development
• Employing broadband to help combat climate change
• Accelerating broadband access for women and girls
• Supporting wider broadband inclusion for all
• Broadband evaluation and monitoring
• Building global partnerships for broadband development
• Next steps for broadband partnerships and projects
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The Trans-sector Concept
• Holistic approach to ICT infrastructure based on open networks and sharing policies
• Calls for leadership at the top, directing the various silos to work together
• Digital economy
• E-learning and tele-education
• E-health and tele-medicine
• E-government (social services)
• Sustainability and smart energy,
• HANs, smart grids, EV, PV
• Digital media
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ICT Infrastructure Requirements
• Robust infrastructure
• Ubiquitous
• Affordable
• Secure
• Low latency
• High speed
• Capacity for high volumes
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How to move forward
• Government leadership (national infrastructure)
• Positive policies (healthcare, education, etc)
• Regulation (structural/functional separation)
• Tax incentive
• Government initiative (Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Korea)
• Telco initiative (Scandinavia)
• Google initiative (Kansas City)
This will stimulate investments and industry transformation
• Infrastructure
• IT services (cloud, data centres, analytics, IoT)
• Retail
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Global Developments
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Key developments in Europe
• Slow economic recovery retarding telecom network investment;
• Spectrum auctions bringing much needed cash to national treasuries, enabling MNOs to deliver national LTE coverage through to 2015/16;
• Telcos’ emphasis on vectoring VDSL to satisfy Digital Agenda broadband targets;
• Pan-European effort against cybercrime via the Horizon 2020 program;
• Preponderance of communities’ driven FttP networks;
• Rapid development of LTE networks enabling MNOs to capitalise on VAS.
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Key developments in North America
• FCC encouraged to lift legal restrictions on municipal/state broadband projects
• FttP a significant growth area, stimulated by non-telcos (municipalities, Google Fiber)
• LTE market the most developed globally
• Further market consolidation (Comcast-TWC) would reinforce monopoly of broadband provision
• Canadian 700MHz auction (February 2014) facilitating cross-border LTE roaming arrangements
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Key developments in Asia
• Mobile telephone services remain central to industry development in Asia
• Internet development in Asia is sharply divided between the developed and the developing markets
• Demand for data is surging - mainly happening in the leading markets
• A growing group of countries and operators in Asia have been moving into Voice over LTE (VoLTE)
• R&D laboratories / Incubation centres
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Key developments in the Middle East
• High mobile penetration levels – pressure on growth/voice revenue decline.
• Operators moving into fixed services, expanding in other countries, improving mobile packages
• One of the hottest markets for smart phone growth worldwide, behind Latin America.
• Jordan emerging as a regional tech start-up hub due to an ICT focused education system, low start up costs and business-friendly government.
• Lack of adequate delivery infrastructure remains impediment to digital media development.
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Key developments in Africa
• Fastest growing continent at more than 5% GDP growth
• Fastest growing mobile market in the world, moving to 4G
• Improved international fibre connectivity leads to national fibre rollouts
• Enormous growth potential for broadband
• Growing threat of cyber crime (Nigeria and others)
• International fibre capacity available to sub-Saharan Africa has multiplied hundred-fold in just three years to around 25Tb/s – theoretically enough for each of the almost one billion inhabitants of the region to download 8GB per month.
• Commercial LTE networks are already operational in 7 African countries.
• Silicon Savannah
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Key developments in South America
• Sustained economic growth in key markets (Argentina, Brazil)
• Commercial LTE in three countries, trials in several others
• Continuing mobile subscriber growth in absence of fixed-line
investment
• New submarine cables (Brazil, Ecuador) reducing cost of
broadband services
• Telecom market concentration and slow regulatory advances
inhibiting new entrants
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Thank you
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