ict for development carlos a. primo braga senior adviser, international trade department the world...
TRANSCRIPT
ICT for Development
Carlos A. Primo BragaSenior Adviser, International Trade Department
The World Bank
WITSA Public Policy Meeting
AthensMay 18, 2004
Outline
• ICT and Development
• The Regulatory Environment
• Reality check
• Concluding remarks
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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Rep. of Korea
Ghana
Thousands of constant 1995 US dollars
Difference attributed to knowledge
Difference due to physical and human capital
Knowledge makes the difference between poverty and wealth
Source: World Development Report, 98/99
Knowledge Changes the Development Process
Creation and effective use of knowledge are key to rapid economic growth
ICT is changing the terms under which knowledge can be created and disseminated:
- ICT facilitates the process of codification and transmission of knowledge about technology;
- ICT enhances the positive learning externalities of knowledge generation by magnifying the possibilities for recombination of ideas and information;
- ICT dilutes the “tyranny” of geography by providing new ways for researchers to escape national boundaries. The rate of international co-authorship of scientific and technical papers, for example, has increased significantly over the last decade;
- ICT increases the “distribution power” of innovation systems, diminishing the time to market of new products and services, while enhancing the dissemination, application, and use of “mature” technologies.
But can ICT be of any help in LDCs?
ICT and development
ICT and Economic Growth - enhanced competitiveness- increased business opportunities - access to market for rural communities
ICT and Improved Delivery of Social Services- health/education/environmental/microfinance services - reducing vulnerability to natural disasters
ICT for Greater Transparency - improved efficiency on government procurement
- reduced corruption
- increased civil society participation
ICT for Empowerment of the Poor
- allowing the poor to better communicate their concerns
The concept of sustainable development
Economic Sustainability
(productivity)
Social Sustainability
(equity)
EnvironmentalSustainability
(protect/enhance natural resources)
IntergenerationConcerns
ICT and sustainable development
Direct Impact
• Production - Toxic components such as
lithium and cadmium (batteries), lead (cathode ray tubes)...;
• Operation- Energy use …;
• Disposal- Short lifetime cycle, growing challenge of managing electronic waste…
• Production - Toxic components such as
lithium and cadmium (batteries), lead (cathode ray tubes)...;
• Operation- Energy use …;
• Disposal- Short lifetime cycle, growing challenge of managing electronic waste…
Indirect Impact
• Effects on transportation of e-commerce and telework- Growth vs. more efficient logistics vs. leisure choices;
• Dematerialization - e-books; MP3 files vs. CDs; email vs. “snail mail”…;
• Acceleration of life-cycle of products- Incentives for agglomeration vs. dispersion
• Effects on transportation of e-commerce and telework- Growth vs. more efficient logistics vs. leisure choices;
• Dematerialization - e-books; MP3 files vs. CDs; email vs. “snail mail”…;
• Acceleration of life-cycle of products- Incentives for agglomeration vs. dispersion
Network Effects
Opportunities for more knowledge sharing, improved coordination, transparency and monitoring
Opportunities for more knowledge sharing, improved coordination, transparency and monitoring
Virtualization of material products: myths and reality
Digital divide
• Infrastructure (income levels, rural vs. urban)
• Digital literacy (barriers to absorption of IT)
• Content
• Gender
• Large companies vs SMEs…
• E-business practices
The network explosion
Income Divide
Digital divide/infrastructure
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database
User distribution, by income group, 2001
High Income
Upper-mid Income
Lower-mid Income
Low Income
6.1billion
986million
741million
361million
PopulationTelephone
linesMobile users
Internet users
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Telecoms and Internet: the cost of being connected
278%
191%
80% 60%1.20% 0.135%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Sri Lanka
Monthly internet access charge as a percent of monthly average income
Sri Lanka
Nepal
Bangladesh
Bhutan
United States Denmark
Source: Human Development Report Office calculations based on data ITU 2000 and World Bank 2001
Secure servers and e-commerce
OECD 95%
Non-OECD 5%
Secure Servers, OECD and non OECD (October 2000)
Share of Secure Servers in non OECD countries(October 2000)
14%
43%
34%
0% 9%
Central and South America
Non-OECD Asia
Non-OECDEurope0.4 %
Oceania
Africa
Source: OECD, 2001
Facilitating trade in less efficient countries would bring significant gains: services/e-business are key in promoting trade facilitation
Source: Calculations based on table 4 in Wilson, Mann, Source: Calculations based on table 4 in Wilson, Mann, and Otsuki, “Trade Facilitation and Capacity Building: Global Perspective,” 2003, mimeo.and Otsuki, “Trade Facilitation and Capacity Building: Global Perspective,” 2003, mimeo.
The regulation maze
Layers of communication systems
Layer characteristics
Relevant regulations and policies
Relevant fora for international negotiation/coordination/debate
Content layer Services, images, and applications transmitted by the network
Cyberlaws, taxation, IPRs, consumer, privacy and data protection, competition law, content regulation, trade policies
WTO, OECD, WIPO…
Code layer Protocols and software that make the network run
Internet governance, competition policy, IPRs, standards
ICANN, ISOC, ITU, WIPO…
Physical infrastructure layer
Wires, cables, computers, satellites… across which bits of information travel
Telecom regulation, competition policy, IPRs, trade policies, standards
WTO (BTA, ITA), ITU, WIPO…
Reality check: implications for developing countries
• Infrastructure: rapid improvement but major gaps in coverage/affordability
• Regulatory environment: progress + complexity (cyberlaws, security, PKI, IPRs, content regulation, e-payment infrastructure, privacy…)
• Digital literacy: institutional constraints in the educational sector + IT HR development at firm level
• Content: localization/relevance/IPRs
Concluding remarks
• E-business and ICT use will continue to expand on a global basis and their benefits can be substantial not only at firm level, but also in promoting trade and enhancing productivity at a macro level;
• Convergence in e-business practices can happen (developing countries and industrialized countries, SMEs and large enterprises), but …
• Unless governments provide the proper regulatory environment for private action and support efforts to expand digital literacy, with special attention to the needs of SMEs, the digital divide between the developed and the developing world, at the level of business practices, will widen.
Concluding remarks (cont.)
• More evolution than revolution, but potential for significant distribution impacts (within nations and internationally), particularly, as e-commerce practices spread.
• Importance of keeping in focus the implications of the regulatory environment for innovation
• Cross-border disputes will also expand in the absence of regulatory convergence (no hope for advancing this agenda in a significant manner in the WTO in the near future ).
More information
The World Bank
www.worldbank.org
Development Gateway Portal
www.developmentgateway.org