ICES work 2015 and beyond

NSAC EXCOM 23rd September 2014Poul Degnbol

ICES work in 2014

• Recurrent advice:– Elasmobranchs (incl rays and skates in the NS)

16/10; Norway pout 3/10, Pandalus • Update based on Q3 surveys in 2014 mid

nov• Special requests:– NS Haddock (EU/Norway) – not feasible

anymore– Crangon (Germany/Netherlands)

ICES work in 2015

• Benchmarks early 2015:– WKNSEA

• cod-347d, wit-nsea, Mur-347d, Sol-nsea• 2-6 February 2015, Data compilation 10-13 November 2014

– WKPLE• ple-eche, ple-skag, ple-2123, Ple-24-32 • 23-27 February 2015

• Recurrent TAC advice– Sandeel end february– NS main package 30/6– Sharks 30/9

• Approach and methods development – w implications for advice– Risk based approach to by-catch species– Landing obligation – methods for survival. WKMEDS process– FMSY as ranges– New advice format for fisheries focus and integration

• Popular advice– Publication of ‘popular advice’ sheets shortly after main advice– Further development of overview and availability– Feed back and suggestions very welcome!

• ICES work can be followed – On the external webpage http://www.ices.dk/community/Advisory-process/Pages/default.aspx– In details /real time on sharepoint http://groupnet.ices.dk/Workplan/default.aspx

Benchmarks NS 2015

• WKNSEA – cod-347d, wit-nsea, Mur-347d, Sol-nsea– 2-6 February 2015, Data compilation 10-13

November 2014• WKPLE– ple-eche, ple-skag, ple-2123, Ple-24-32 – 23-27 February 2015

Risk based approach to by-catch species - PSA

High risk – technical measures/ mitigation

Low risk – No immediate regulation, observe

WKLIFE 2013 + 2014

Integrating mixed evidence & objectivesData & knowledge provision for yield

Data & knowledge provisionfor biodiversity & ecosystem function

high medium low

Cat 1

Cat 2

Cat 3

Cat 4

Cat 5

Cat 6

Data for classical fisheries assessments AND ecosystem impact assessment

VMS data - Bottom gear activity 2009 and 2012.

Bottom trawl, beam trawl, seines and dredges.Not including Spanish, Icelandic, Faroese, Russian data

2009

2012

Landings obligation – survival guidelines

• Workshop on Methods for Estimating Discard Survival (WKMEDS)– Develop guidelines and where possible identify best practice for

undertaking discard survival studies (using the framework detailed in the report of STECF Expert Working Group EWG 13-16) (2014 Workshop);

– Identify approaches for measuring and reducing, or accounting for, the uncertainty associated with mortality estimates;

– Critically review current estimates of discard mortality, with reference to the guidelines detailed in 1, and collate existing validated mortality estimates;

– Conduct a meta-analysis, using the data detailed in 3, to improve the understanding of the explanatory variables associated with discard mortality and identifying potential mitigation measures;

• Resulting in guidelines • Meetings 2014 (february and november), 2015 and 2016

developing sections of guidelines

Landings obligation - advice

• The effects of discard ban not predictable• ICES advice will– Be based on historical data (past practices)

including past discards in advice– As data under the new regime become

available advice will be based on those

FMSY as ranges

• Commission will incorporate FMSY as a range in future management plan proposals

• Ranges cannot be established on basis of science• ICES can advice on candidate ranges based on

– ‘Pretty good yield’ (say more than 95% of MSY)– Limited by precautionary reference points

• ‘Placeholder’ ranges have been proposed for Baltic stocks, to be updated based on actual assessments / benchmarks in March 2015

• Expect Commission to ask for ranges prior to further management plan proposals

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Fishing mortality

Yiel

d

F MSYF pa

MSY

95 % of MSY

Range

FMSY range identified as ‘pretty good yield’ (say more than 95% of MSY)and limited by Fpa

New advice format

• Address fisheries issues (mixed fisheries issues, bycatch, ecosystem impacts)

• Integrate with ecosystem advice (interactions between fisheries and other sectors)

• Simplification• Multiple communication uses• Efficiency

Structure of recurring advice

For each ecoregion

• Ecosystem overviews with Ecosystem advice• Advice linked to interaction between economic sectors

• Fisheries advice • Single stock advice qualified by• Interactions between fisheries, mixed fisheries and

ecosystem impacts of fisheries• Single stock background information

Stock advice

Includes an overview of the stock advice with links to the latest single stock advice sheets

Stock Advice Link to stock sheets

Date of release

Brill in Subarea IV (North Sea) and Divisions IIIa (Skagerrak – Kattegat) and VIId,e (English Channel)

New data (landings and lpue and effort data) available for this stock do not change the perception of the stock. Therefore, the advice for this fishery in 2015 is the same as the advice for 2014: ICES advises on the basis of the ICES approach to data limited stocks that catches should be no more than 2727 tonnes. All catches are assumed to be landed.

   

Cod in Subarea IV (North Sea) and Divisions VIId (Eastern Channel) and IIIa West (Skagerrak)

 

ICES advises on the basis of the EU–Norway management plan that catches in 2015 should be no more than 35 486 tonnes. If discard rates do not change from those in 2013, this implies landings of no more than 26 713 tonnes.

   

Cod in Division IIIa East (Kattegat)

New data (catch and surveys) available for this stock do not change the perception of the stock. Therefore, the advice for 2015 is the same as the advice for 2013 and 2014 : ICES advises on the basis of precautionary considerations that there should be no directed fisheries and bycatch and discards should be minimised.

 

   

Etc. by stock                    

MSFD advice

• Commission is reviewing the decision on descriptors

• ICES provides input regarding D3 (fish stocks), D4 (foodwebs) and D6 (benthic habitats)

• Inputs regarding monitoring • Upcoming: measures

Next steps towards EAF support - ICESlFisheries:

Incorporate species interactions – 'considerations' Incorporate drivers and impacts

Baltic cod as demonstration caselIntegrated assessments

IA groups now established for all east Atlantic ecoragions (incl NS and Baltic) plus NW Atlantic

lDemonstration integrated advicelICES contributes to MSFD development

Descriptor updates Integrated monitoring

Main challenge: the institutions we speak to do not communicate efficiently nor have matching competemces

Thanks

MIRAC meeting 2015: During week 3 (12 – 16 / 1 2015, ICES HQ)

General stakeholder meeting plus a meeting with specific CFP focus