ices asc plenary lecture "integrated science for integrated management: fairy tale or finally...
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"Integrated science for integrated management: fairy tale or finally here?" by Phillip Levin, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, USA ICES ASC Plenary lecture Thursday 18 September 2014TRANSCRIPT
Integrated Ecosystem Science for
Integrated Ecosystem-based Management: Fairy tale
or Finally here?
f a i r y t a l e
an engaging story that ultimately requires a sequence of far-fetched events
Bocaccio Canary Rockfish
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 20010
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Mea
n nu
mbe
r per
traw
l
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 20010
5
10
15
20
Levin et al. (2006) Conservation Biology
Redbanded Rockfish Pacific Ocean Perch
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 20010.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Mea
n n
umbe
r p
er
tra
wl
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 20010
5
15
25
35
45Redbanded Rockfish Pacific Ocean Perch
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 20010.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Mea
n n
umbe
r p
er
tra
wl
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 20010
5
15
25
35
45
that w a s t h e n
t h i s i s n o w
Overfishing (unsustainable fishing mortality)
Overfished (biomass
below limit)Things are OK
California Current Groundfish
from Levin & Wells (2012)
42% of assessed groundfish overfished
Then Now
Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA)
• NO– In general, this is good single-species management
– Sometimes, informed by emerging ecological knowledge
This success is the result of Ecosystem-based Management (EBM) and IEAs, right?
In conclusionWe don’t need
Integrated Ecosystem Assessments
Questions?
On the other handBy definition,
s u s t a i n a b l e fishing means k i l l i n g
lots of fish.
Tolimieri , Samhouri, Levin (2014) Ecosystems
Mean Trophic Level of Groundfish
probably caused by combination of recruitment variability and fishing
Pi /Bi(Annual productionper unit biomass)
Diet composition
(1 – EE) • Pi /Bi(Annual production
lost as detritus)Detrituspreyl
Qi /Bi(Annual consumptionper unit biomass)
preyj
preyk
Yi(Annual productiontaken by fisheries)
Bi(Biomass of
functional group i)predatorz
predatorx
predatory
Annual production
taken by predators;
based on predator
diets, B, Q/B
Pi /Bi(Annual productionper unit biomass)
Diet composition
(1 – EE) • Pi /Bi(Annual production
lost as detritus)Detrituspreylpreyl
Qi /Bi(Annual consumptionper unit biomass)
preyjpreyj
preykpreyk
Yi(Annual productiontaken by fisheries)
Bi(Biomass of
functional group i)predatorzpredatorz
predatorxpredatorx
predatorypredatory
Annual production
taken by predators;
based on predator
diets, B, Q/B
What is the impact of shifting (groundfish) trophic level on ecosystem structure and function?
ecopath with ecosim
ResponseSpecies group Instantaneous Dynamic (10 yr)
Phytoplankton small zooplankton
carnivorous zooplankton amphipods
krill jellies
pandalid shrimp crabs squid
forage fish salmon
lower TL groundfish albacore seabirds
harbor seals whales
Tolimieri , Samhouri, Levin (2014) Ecosystems
Fishing can affect the ecosystem
Chorizo crusted cod
Biom
ass
in th
e w
ater
Chorizo crusted cod
Biom
ass
in th
e w
ater
Gamba
s al a
jillo
Chorizo crusted cod
Biom
ass
in th
e w
ater
Agric
ultu
re
•Ecosystems provide a large number of goods and services
•These services interact, often in ways we don’t understand
•People place different values on different services
EBM Challenge
What do we do? Where do we do it?
How much?
Integrated Ecosystem Assessments
• Science for i n t e g r a t e d ocean & coastal management
w h a t is a healthy ecosystem?
i s the ecosystem health?
n o w what do we do?
What is a healthy
ecosystem?
SCOPING
STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT
Is the ecosystem healthy?ECOSYSTEM STATUS• INDICATORS AND REFERENCE POINTS
• RISK ASSESSMENT
Now what do we do?
SCENARIO ANALYSIS• Evaluate the likely tradeoffs associated with management alternatives
What is an ecosystem (or species)?
Scientists, fishers, divers“pile sort”
100
80
60
40
20
0
Sim
ilarit
y
Salm
on
Oth
er
flatf
ish
Jelly
fish
Copp
erRe
dstr
ipe
Gre
enst
ripe
dPu
get S
ound
Oth
er
fora
ge
Seal
s
Crab
s
Hak
ePo
llock
Cabe
zon
Sabl
efish
Ratfi
shLi
ngco
dCo
dKe
lp,
Stag
Pile
per
chSt
riped
Rock
fish
B
Dog
fish
Orc
a
Sand
lanc
e
Dov
er,
Hal
ibut
Rock
fish
A Blac
k
structure of folk taxonomiesBeaudreau, Levin, Norman . 2012. Conservation Letters
Beaudreau, Levin, Norman . 2012. Conservation Letters
scientific taxonomy
folk taxonomies(including fish biologists, divers, fishers)
eye
of the
beholderyear
1977 2010
inde
x of
abu
ndan
ce
Adrian Stier et al. in prep
Fuzzy-Logic Cognitive Mapping (FCM) is a parameterized concept mapping where qualitative static models that are translated into semi-quantitative dynamic models.
Adrian Stier et al. in prep
e
Food web structure differs
Adrian Stier et al. in prep
Adrian Stier et al. in prep
people (even fisheries scientists) don’t
perceive the world the same way
this can causeconfusion,
conflict,
chaos
If we want the EBM fairy tale to come true
we have to make sure we all hear the same story
EBM
ecosystem-based management targets
desired future state of the socio-ecological system
what is a ‘good’ environment?
management targets are a societal choice
informed by science
but how?
Ecological Relationships
Societal Preferences
Management Targets
Ecological Relationships
Eelgrass
Puget Sound food web model• 66 functional groups (bacteria to orcas) from Central Puget Sound• 15 different fishery types• Direct connections are mainly predator-prey interactions• Strength of connections is a function of diets, consumption rates,
production rates and predator-prey functional responses
Harvey, Williams & Levin 2012 Ecosystems
Effects of eelgrass change on mediated groups• Averaged across all mediation strength combinations (strong, moderate, weak)
• Wild, pink salmon groups most sensitive; effect carries to subadults
• Crab, hatchery salmon responses were intermediate
• Herring were least sensitive
Harvey, Williams & Levin 2012 Ecosystems
Effects of eelgrass change on rest of food web
Harvey, Williams & Levin 2012 Ecosystems
Societal Preferences
how much eelgrass do you want?
Underwater (Marine Life)
Rural Growth
Urban Development
Shorelines
Eelgrass
Ecosystem Services
Overwater structure
Sediment Loading
NutrientsShoreline Armor
Herring Crabs
BirdsKiller whales
Salmon
Costs Costs
Rehr, Williams, Tolimieri, Levin 2014 Coastal Management
What is the effect of changes in human activities on eelgrass?
What is the effect of changing eelgrass on Puget Sound marine life?
What does this all cost?
Rehr, Williams,, Levin 2014 Marine Policy
-35% -25% -15% 0% 10% 25% 45%-2
-1
0
1
2
Change is eelgrass cover
Ave
rage
Des
irab
ility
Levin, Rehr, Norman, & Wiliams in prep
-35% -25% -15% 0% 10% 25% 45%-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Change in eelgrass cover
Ave
rage
Des
irab
ility
DemocratsRepublicans
• given the diverse costs and benefits of eelgrass restoration, Puget Sound citizens would like to see 10-20% more eelgrass
• normative orientation influences preferred restoration level, and
• policy makers will now have knowledge of how different constituents view restoration
existential questions…• does this reduce the influence of science?• does this lead to less conservation?• is this raising a white flag of surrender?
or• is this the real world in a democracy?
If we want the EBM fairy tale to come true
we (scientists) can’t write the story alone
Telling the EBM story
Woe is me…
No data…no certainty…no money…no this…not that
Ackoff, R. (1989) From data to wisdom. J. Appl Systems Analysis
How do we get from information to wisdom?
Her
ring
roe
Pur
se s
eine
Herring roe-on-kelp Gathered by hand
Sea b
irds
Age-structured simulation model of herring and fishery
Herring Biology• Constant adult mortality.• Constant weight-at-age• Sex ratio = 0.5. • Variable recruitment• Unfished Biomass (B0; 24,000 mt females)
Fishery• Fishery closes at 0.2B0
Shelton, Samhouri, Stier, Levin in review
Roe harvest via purse seine
Roe-
on-k
elp
harv
est
Shelton, Samhouri, Stier, Levin in review
If I am willing to accept a 10% risk of the fishery closing,what is the “safe operating space” ?
Providing for predators
Ignoring prey needs of predators
Shelton, Samhouri, Stier, Levin in review
These are timely results… the more modeling that is encompassing and holistic, the better – Council of the Haida Nation
We are really excited about this herring model. It will be useful as we think about herring conservation this year-Parks Canada
Even donkeys can be useful
If we want the EBM fairy tale to come true
We must answer the questions that managers ask, but also the questions that should have asked
An IEA Fairy tale can come true if
• We engage stakeholders, managers, & policy makers early, often and continually
• We conduct rigorous human dimensions research as a core component of IEAs (not an add-on)
• We don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good
• Embrace realistic expectations about IEA science
• Serve current management needs, but not at the expense of more integrative ocean management
Samhouri, Haupt, Levin, Link, Shuford 2013 ICES J Mar Sci
In a utilitarian age, of all other times, it is a matter of grave importance that fairy tales should be respected."
~Charles Dickens~
"If you want your children to be intelligent, read them fairy tales. If you want them to be more intelligent, read them more fairy tales.”
~Albert Einstein~
• Understand the human dimensions of the ecosystem -- beyond commercial revenue
• Develop management strategies that work for people• Meet legal & policy requirements -- & ethical obligations• Identify & understand trade-offs• Maintain & improve the wellbeing of people
-- in ways that also maintain & improve the integrity of ecosystems
Why Assess Human Wellbeing?