iccrts 15 2010 the agility imperative 6.16.10
TRANSCRIPT
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 1
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presented to
15th ICCRTS
Santa Monica, California
J une 22, 2010
Dr. David S. AlbertsDirector, Research
OASD/NII – DoD CIO
The Agility Imperative:
Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 3
Questions to be Addressed
• Why is it imperative that we develop a capability to be
agile?
• What are the implications for Command and Control?
• Is there a future for traditional approaches toCommand and Control?
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 4
Questions to be Addressed
• Why is it imperative that we develop a capability to be
agile?
• What are the implications for Command and Control?
• Is there a future for traditional approaches toCommand and Control?
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Roots of Unpredictability
• A lack of Predictability can be a result of:
– A lack of understanding
– Irreducible uncertainty (stochastic properties)
– A lack of information
• Complexity– Limits understanding
– Increases uncertainty
– Increases the need for information
Increased Complexity Increased Unpredictability
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Complex Endeavor
Complexity of ‘Self’
Complexity of the Task and Environment
=
+
Sources of Mission Complexity
21st Century Missions are Complex Endeavors
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•
The success of 21st
Century Missions requires
a multi-dimensional effects space
-
political, social, economic, military
•
The complexity of the mission is a result of the
interactions between and among the effects, particularly
across dimensions, and the uncertainties associated witha cascading effects chain.
H u m a
n i t a r i a n
A s s i s
t a n c e C o u n t e r T e r r o r i s m
S t a b i l i t
y O p e
r a t i o n
s
D i s a s t e r R e l i e f
Peace Keeping
Task and Environment
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•Self = A large number of heterogeneous, independent entities
that differ significantly with respect to:
•
Culture, values and norms;
•
Laws, policies, rules, and regulations;
•
Practices and processes;
•
Levels of trust;
•
Language;
•
Information and communications capabilities;
•
Approach to organization and management.
•The complexity of ‘Self’ comes from the nature of theinteractions between and among the participating entities and
the dynamics of the situation that affect entity willingness,
constraints, perceptions, and capabilities.
Complexity of Self
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 10
Questions to be Addressed
• Why is it imperative that we develop a capability to be
agile?
• What are the implications for Command and Control?
• Is there a future for traditional approaches toCommand and Control?
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 11
Implications for Command and Control
Complex
Endeavors
Unpredictability
increases
C2
challenges basic
assumptions re:Command
challenges basic
assumptions re:Control
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 12
Challenges to Basic C2 Assumptions
•
Increased complexity will make the unexpected occur with
greater frequency
•
The effective lives of plans will be shorter –
they may expire
within the planning cycle
• Critical information and expertise necessary to understand thesituation will not be readily available
•
Traditional approaches to decision making under uncertainty
will be less applicable
Unpredictability
The most appropriate response to increased complexity
and the associated increases in uncertainty and risk is
Agility
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 13
Implications for Command and Control
Complex
Endeavors
increases
challenges basic
assumptions re:Command
Agile
C2
challenges basic
assumptions re:Control
Unpredictability
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 14
Challenges to Basic C2 Assumptions
•
There will not be a unified chain of command.
•
Entities will each have their own intent.
•
The situation will be, in part, unfamiliar to all entities.
•
There will be multiple planning processes.
• Critical information and expertise necessary to understandthe situation will be non-organic.
•
Actions, to be effective, will require developing synergies
between and among entity actions.
Complex Endeavors require new approaches to Entity C2
to achieve Collective Focus and Convergence
Complex Endeavors
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 15
AgileEntity C2
&
Collective F&C
Implications for Command and Control
Unpredictability
increases
challenges basic
assumptions re:
Command
challenges basic
assumptions re:Control
Complex
Endeavors
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 16
Questions to be Addressed
• Why is it imperative that we develop a capability to be
agile?
• What are the implications for Command and Control?
• Is there a future for traditional approaches toCommand and Control?
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 17
Future of C2
• What is Agility?
• Rethinking C2
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 18
Essence of Agility:Why do we need Agility
Success must be achieved / maintained in light of
Success = effectiveness, efficiency, survivability
•Dynamic environment•Complexity and chaotic environment•Unknown futures•Unpredictable states
•Rapidly changing situations•New, diverse circumstances•Unexpected events•Unfamiliar situations•Changing tasks, purposes•Loss, Damage, Threats
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 19
Essences of Agility:What Needs to be Agile
The concept of agility can be applied to
•People•C2 Approaches•Organizations•Processes•Systems•Architectures•Policy
•Doctrine• Tactics•Acquisition
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 20
Agility
maintain acceptable level of - performance,
- effectiveness,
- efficiency
e.g.,
- degradation / loss of capability- change in objectives
- change in coalition (self)
- …….
- Timely recognition
- Appropriate response
- Timely response
requires
Agility is the ability to successfully cope
with changes in the environment (system)
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 21
Essence of Agility:
Mechanisms
Being agile includes the employment of one or more of
the following inter-related mechanisms
•Adaptability•Flexibility•Responsiveness•Survivability•Resilience
•Robustness
•Requisite variety•Innovation•Learning•Fault Tolerance•Re-configurability
•Re-engineering
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 22
Essence of Agility:Measuring Agility
• Agility is not completely observable
– Agility (or a lack of ) can be observed only after thefact (manifest)
– Agility is potential (a capability) until it is manifest
• Thus, measures of Agility must be able to measure bothpotential and manifest Agility
• Indicants of Agility are also of interest
– Indicants measure the properties of an entity that arerelated to more or less agility
– Indicants may be easier to observe / measure
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 23
Essence of Agility:
Requisite Agility
• Agility is not an unlimited good
• Improving Agility involves costs
• The amount of Agility required is a function of the situation
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 24
Future of C2
• What is Agility?
• Rethinking C2
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 25
Future of C2
• What is Agility?
• Rethinking C2
and thinking about Focus and Convergence
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 26
Rethinking C2 / Thinking about F&C
•
Virtually all endeavors will be complex
•
Situations will be dynamic
•
The more complex and dynamic the situation, the greater demands on
accomplishing the functions associated with C2
The Mission Space and the Approach Space
•
There are many ways
to accomplish the functions associated with
Command and Control
•
No one approach fits all missions, situations, or endeavors
•
The most appropriate approach will be a function of the endeavor
•
Entities may need to be able to utilize more than one approach to C2
•
The Collective needs to be able to adopt an appropriate approach
to F&C
•
The approach needs to change with changing circumstances
.
New, Agile Approaches to entity C2 and Collective F&C
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 27
Approach Space
D i s t r i b
u t i o n
o f I n f o r m a
t i o n
A m o n
g
P a r t i c i p
a n t s
P a
t t e r n s o f I n t e r a c t i o n
A m o n g E n t i t i e
s
Allocation of DecisionRights to the Collective
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 28
Approach Space
TraditionalMilitaryOrganizations
D i s t r i b
u t i o n
o f I n f o r m a
t i o n
A m o n
g
P a r t i c i p
a n t s
P a t t e r n s o f I n t e r a
c t i o n
A m o n g E n t i t i e
s
Allocation of DecisionRights to the Collective
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 29
Approach Space
TraditionalMilitaryOrganizations
Edge Organizations D i s t r i b
u t i o n
o f I n f o r m a
t i o n
A m o n
g
P a r t i c i p
a n t s
P a t t e r n s o f I n t e r a
c t i o n
A m o n g E n t i t i e
s
Allocation of DecisionRights to the Collective
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 30
A False Choice
P
a t t e r n s o f I n t e r a
c t i o n
A m o n g E n t i t i e s
D i s t r i b
u t i o n
o f I n f o r m a
t i o n
A m o n
g
P a r t i c i p
a n t s
A
BEdge Organizations
?
Allocation of DecisionRights to the Collective
It’s not about howto get from
A to B, but…
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 31
Agility
Agile C2/F&CInvolves the ability
to move around theApproach Spaceappropriately
Allocation of DecisionRights to the Collective
D i s t r i b
u t i o n
o f I n f o r m a
t i o n
A m o n
g
P a r t i c i p
a n t s
P a t t e r n s o f I n t e r a
c t i o n
A m o n g E n t i t i e
s
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The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors June 2010 32
The Real Choices
Approach toFocus and Convergence
Endeavor Space
What is the appropriate level of Maturity?
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Agile C2 / F&C
• C2/F&C Agility is the ability to maintain effectiveness as afunction of changing circumstances and stresses
• Agility is an umbrella concept that includes:– Responsiveness
– Robustness
– Resilience
• Being able to recognize and transition to the appropriateapproach is an essential capability, but only one of the
ways that we can make C2 / F&C more agile• NEC C2 is inherently more Agile than traditional
approaches
‒ Flexibility
‒ Innovation
‒ Adaptability