ICAO´s view of the industry todayICAO´s view of the industry today

Folasade OdutolaICAO

Director Air Transport Bureau

Folasade OdutolaICAO

Director Air Transport BureauDirector Air Transport Bureau

Vancouver 20 September 2010

Director Air Transport Bureau

Vancouver 20 September 2010

Regional traffic overview for 2009 Regional traffic overview for 2009 gg

North America EuropeTraffic: -3.9%Capacity: -4.7% Load Factor: +0.7 Pt

Europe Traffic: -3.9%Capacity: -4.3% Load Factor: +0.3 Pt Asia Pacific

Traffic: -0.2%

Latin America Traffic: 0.9%

Middle EastTraffic: 9.1%Capacity: 11 9%

Capacity: -0.9% Load Factor: +0.6 Pt

a c 0 9%Capacity: 2.2% Load Factor: -0.9 Pt

Africa

Capacity: 11.9% Load Factor: -1.9 Pt

caTraffic: -3.9%Capacity: -4.3% Load Factor: -0.7 Pt

World Traffic: -2.0%Capacity: -2.2% Load Factor: +0.2 Pt

Market shares* achievedMarket shares* achievedMarket shares achievedMarket shares achieved

International traffic represents 60% of the total passenger trafficInternational traffic represents 60% of the total passenger traffic

International passenger International passenger traffictraffic**** Domestic passenger Domestic passenger

International traffic represents 60% of the total passenger trafficInternational traffic represents 60% of the total passenger traffic

North America 17%

A i P ifi

Africa *3%

traffictraffic p gp gtraffictraffic****

Africa *1%

Asia Pacific

Latin America4%

Asia Pacific 25%

Middle East 10%

North America

55% Europe 8%

30%

Europe 41%4%

Middle East 1%

Latin America 5%

* Market share of the scheduled traffic of the airlines domiciled in the region **Expressed in Revenue Passenger Kilometre

Low Cost Carriers progressionLow Cost Carriers progressionLow Cost Carriers progression Low Cost Carriers progression

Non IATA airlines IATA members

75%

Passenger traffic market shareBy airline type

Passenger traffic market shareBy airline type

25%75%

1999-2009

3500

4000

4500

1999 2009

Non IATA airlines

7%

IATA members93%

1999-2009+14 % p.a.

2500

3000

3500

raffi

c K

s

1999-2009+4.3 % p.a.

1000

1500

2000

ssen

gerr

trB

illio

n R

PK

0

500

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Source: ICAO, IATA

Pas B

Liberalization: a necessary frame for

N t k

Low Cost Carriers development

Number of LCCs : 13Deregulation : 1978

N k

Network carriers

86%

LCCs

14%

Network carriers

79%

LCCs

21%

Number of LCCs : 48

Number of LCCs : 33

Deregulation : accelerating

Network carriers

79%

LCCs

21%Deregulation : 1987- 1997

Network LCCs

Number of LCCs (Africa and Middle East) : 10

Number of LCCs : 10

Deregulation : in progress

carriers

91%

LCCs

9%

Deregulation : unevenNetwork carriers

76%

LCCs

24%

LCCs development by region

Traffic recovery started in 2010, d it th l i h i tTraffic recovery started in 2010, d it th l i h i tdespite the volcanic ash impactdespite the volcanic ash impact

Regional traffic* growth forecastsRegional traffic* growth forecasts

World

Actual 2009 Forecast 2010 Forecast 2011 Forecast 2012

Regional traffic growth forecastsRegional traffic growth forecasts

Middle East

North America

Europe

Latin America 4.3%

Africa

Asia-Pacific

RPKs Growth in %

Source: ICAO

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 121999-2009 average growth

*Traffic of airlines registered in each region expressed in RPKs

Decrease in number of stored aircraftDecrease in number of stored aircraftDecrease in number of stored aircraft Decrease in number of stored aircraft

4000 In Storage Temporarily Inactive

2800

3200

3600

4000

craf

t

g y

1600

2000

2400

2800

ber o

f airc

400

800

1200

600

Num

0

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

P

Source: Back Aviation Solutions Worldwide Long term & temporary aircraft storage

Airbus and Boeing deliveries for 2010 expected to be above 900

Air travel demand : new behaviors Air travel demand : new behaviors since 2009since 2009

Corporate policy travel: cutting travel budgets and tightening rules

Boom in video conferencing business

Corporate policy travel: cutting travel budgets and tightening rules

Boom in video conferencing businessg

Business travel shift toward cheaper airlines either discounting business fares or Low Cost Carriers

g

Business travel shift toward cheaper airlines either discounting business fares or Low Cost Carriers

Air travel leisure trips : distance shortenedAir travel leisure trips : distance shortened

Impact on both the number of passengers and on premium yields

Airlines are looking for ancillary revenues to compensate the

Impact on both the number of passengers and on premium yields

Airlines are looking for ancillary revenues to compensate the g y pshortfall due to weak yields

g y pshortfall due to weak yields

€1,000 cash prize for best suggestion of ancillar re en eancillary revenue

MOST CREATIVE ONES

Ch ging fo toilet p pe ith

MOST CREATIVE ONES

Ch ging fo toilet p pe ithCharging for toilet paper – with O’Leary’s face on it, Charging €2.50 to read the safety cards

Charging for toilet paper – with O’Leary’s face on it, Charging €2.50 to read the safety cardssafety cards,Charging €1 to use oxygen masks,Ch i €25 t th

safety cards,Charging €1 to use oxygen masks,Ch i €25 t thCharging €25 to use the emergency exit, Charging €50 for bikini clad Cabin Crew

Charging €25 to use the emergency exit, Charging €50 for bikini clad Cabin CrewCabin Crew.Cabin Crew.

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