icao colloquium on aviation and climate change · 4primary results based on icao fesg central...
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ICAO Colloquium on Aviation and Climate ChangeICAO Colloquium on Aviation
and Climate ChangeICAO Colloquium on
Aviation and Climate ChangeICAO Colloquium on
Aviation and Climate Changeand Climate ChangeAviation and Climate ChangeAviation and Climate Change
Session Two –Aviation Emissions Quantification and MRV
12 May 201012 May 2010
“ICAO CAEP Modelling and Databases Task Force,ICAO Goals Assessment Results”
Gregg Fleming (US DoT, Volpe) – Co-Rapp
Urs Ziegler (FOCA) – Co-Rapp
Chris Eyers (QinetiQ) – Secretaryy (Q Q) y
ICAO Colloquium on Aviation and Climate Change
Contents of PresentationContents of Presentation
Introduction
Background
Results• Noise (Not Shown)• NOx and PM Below 3,000 ft (Not Shown)
b f• NOx Above 3,000 ft• Fuel Burn and Commercial Aircraft System Fuel
Efficiency (CASFE) Full-Flighty ( ) g
Putting the Results in Context
Summary
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y
ICAO Colloquium on Aviation and Climate Change
IntroductionIntroduction
Results present the consensus view of MODTF, and p ,are consistent across multiple models
Primary results based on ICAO FESG central forecast of aviation demand with some comparisons with of aviation demand, with some comparisons with low-demand case
Supporting reports document goals assessment pp g p gincluding modelled regional results and results for all models and various sensitivities
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ICAO Colloquium on Aviation and Climate Change
BackgroundBackground
ICAO CAEP WG3 provided input on future technology p p gyimprovements and WG2 provided input on future operational improvements
2006 baseline and future 2016 2026 and 20362006 baseline and future 2016, 2026 and 2036
• NOx above 3,000 ft
• Full flight fuel burn and CASFE• Full-flight fuel burn and CASFE
Full flight fuel burn scenarios extrapolated to 2050
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ICAO Colloquium on Aviation and Climate Change
GHG NO Ab 3 000 ft R lt (1)GHG: NOx Above 3,000 ft Results (1)
NOx Scenarios:NOx Scenarios:
• Scenario 1 - CAEP 7 Baseline
S i 2 M d t Ai ft T h l d • Scenario 2 - Moderate Aircraft Technology and Operational Improvement
• Scenario 3 - Advanced Aircraft Technology and • Scenario 3 - Advanced Aircraft Technology and Operational Improvement
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ICAO Colloquium on Aviation and Climate Change
GHG NO Ab 3 000 ft R lt (2)GHG: NOx Above 3,000 ft Results (2)
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Total Global Aircraft NOx Emissions Above 3,000 ft AGL
ICAO Colloquium on Aviation and Climate Change
GHG NO Ab 3 000 ft R lt (3)GHG: NOx Above 3,000 ft Results (3)
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Total Global Aircraft NOx Emissions Above 3,000 ft AGL Range of Scenarios
ICAO Colloquium on Aviation and Climate Change
GHG: Fuel Burn and CASFE Full-Flight ResultsGHG: Fuel Burn and CASFE Full-Flight Results
Fuel Burn and CASFE Scenarios:
• Scenario 1 - CAEP 7 Baseline
• Scenario 2 - Low Aircraft Technology and Scenario 2 Low Aircraft Technology and Moderate Operational Improvement
• Scenario 3 - Moderate Aircraft Technology and Operational Improvement
• Scenario 4 - Advanced Aircraft Technology and O ti l I tOperational Improvement
• Scenario 5 - Optimistic Aircraft Technology and Advanced Operational ImprovementAdvanced Operational Improvement
Note: results were modelled for 2006, 2016, 2026, and 2036, then extrapolated to 2050
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ICAO Colloquium on Aviation and Climate Change
GHG: Fuel Burn Full-Flight Results (1)GHG: Fuel Burn Full-Flight Results (1)
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Combined International and Domestic
ICAO Colloquium on Aviation and Climate Change
GHG: Fuel Burn Full-Flight Results (2)GHG: Fuel Burn Full-Flight Results (2)
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Figure 11: Total Global Aircraft Fuel Burn, Combined International and Domestic Range of Scenarios
Combined International and Domestic
ICAO Colloquium on Aviation and Climate Change
GHG: Fuel Burn Full-Flight Results (3)GHG: Fuel Burn Full-Flight Results (3)
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Combined International and DomesticGreat Circle Routing Depicted
ICAO Colloquium on Aviation and Climate Change
GHG: Fuel Burn Full-Flight Results (4)GHG: Fuel Burn Full-Flight Results (4)
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2006 International and Domestic Global Aircraft Fuel Burn
ICAO Colloquium on Aviation and Climate Change
GHG: CASFE Full-Flight Results GHG: CASFE Full-Flight Results
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Global Commercial Aircraft System Fuel Efficiency (CASFE)
ICAO Colloquium on Aviation and Climate Change
Putting the Results in ContextPutting the Results in Context
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2006 Transportation-related CO2 Emissions Sources
*Percentages shown are based on the average of the 2006 IEA and UNFCCC data
ICAO Colloquium on Aviation and Climate Change
SummarySummary
A rich aviation noise, emissions and fuel burn ,database exists which can assist policy makers at the route, airport, regional, national and global levels
Aircraft technology and operational improvements Aircraft technology and operational improvements can go a long way toward limiting the increase in aircraft-related GHG emissions
The lack of certainty regarding aviation growth is the most substantial variable in forecasting GHG emissionso
Aircraft account for about 12 percent of the total of CO2 transportation emissions
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