ibm cog comp_may2015_handanimate
TRANSCRIPT
Is Your Intelligent Computer Smart Enough
To Be on My Team?
Barbara J. Grosz School of Engineering and Applied Sciences
Harvard University
Acknowledgements: Nuance FoundaEon
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Background: A Par@cular Turing Predic@on
} “. . . The original quesEon, ‘Can machines think?’ I believe to be too meaningless to deserve discussion. Nevertheless I believe that at the end of the century the use of words and general educated opinion will have altered so much that one will be able to speak of machines thinking without expec5ng to be contradicted. . .”
“Computing Machinery and Intelligence”, Mind, 1950. p. 442
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
What Ques@on Might Turing Pose Now?
} SeOng: Agents and people work together on nontrivial task, extended in Eme, in an uncertain, dynamic environment.
} Can a computer (agent) team-‐member behave, over the long-‐term, in such a way that people on the team will not noEce it’s not human or think it’s stupid.
Grosz, Turing Research Symposium, University of Edinburgh & Royal Society of Edinburgh, 11 May 2012; AI Magazine, 33:4, 2012; The Atlan2c blog, August 2012.
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Why Teamwork? Canonical Compu@ng Environment Now
From “Computing Machinery and Intelligence” and “Can Machines Think?” to Teamwork
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Why Teamwork? Arguments from Cogni@ve Science } It’s fundamental: “Every funcEon in the child's cultural development appears twice: first, on the social level, and later, on the individual level . . . All the higher func5ons originate as actual rela5ons between human individuals.” (Vygotsky, 1978, pp. 56-‐57)
} Language is interpersonal, cooperaEve:
} “Infants depend in both their comprehension and producEon of poinEng on a joint ahenEonal frame (common ground) with their communicaEve partners . . . And they do this for the fundamentally coopera5ve mo5ves of helping and sharing informaEon and aOtudes . . .” (Tomasello, et al., 2007, p. 720)
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Teamwork Is Not Easy: Essen@al Match of Abili@es to Tasks and Roles or . . .
Source: http://msdn.microsoft.com
Interac@ve Intelligence and Health Care Coordina@on
new twists: loosely coupled team members
team of peers (limited/no hierarchy) relaEvely long Eme horizon (not “one-‐shot”)
My current research focus:
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Research Program Framing: Design/Build Collabora@ve Computer Agents
Models and algorithms for efficient decision-‐making under uncertainty Formal models of collaboraEon
Methods for supporEng communicaEon and informaEon sharing
Methods for analyzing and learning people’s percepEons of agent behavior
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Theore@cal Founda@ons: SharedPlans Theory } Each team members commits to team’s performance of the group acEvity; requires model of inten2on.
} Team members reach consensus on a (high-‐level) “recipe”, recipes may be par2al, revised over 2me.
} Team reaches consensus on allocaEon of (subtasks), taking into account agents’ capabiliEes.
} Team members commit to assigned subtasks. } Team members commit to each others’ success.
Theory implicitly requires group decision making processes.
(Grosz&Kraus, 1996,1999; Hunsberger, 1999; Grosz&Hunsberger, 2006 )
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Theory As Inspira@on and Design Guide: Collabora@ve Interfaces I:
What’s the right division of labor?
Writer’s Aid (Babaian, Grosz, Shieber, 2002)
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Theory As Inspira@on and Design Guide: Collabora@ve Interfaces II:
Detailed descripEon of students’ interacEons
Condensed presentaEon of students’ interacEons
Direct feedback from teacher to students
Complemen2ng and working well with people. S-‐CASTS (Reddy et al., 2009; Gal, Reddy,
Shieber, Rubin, Grosz, 2012)
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Key Problem: Interrup@on Management
drive home
Route A Route B
0.9 0.1
drive home
Route A
Agent (Observe/Help)
Recipient Communicate?
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Key Problem: Interrup@on Management
drive home
Route A Route B
0.9 0.1
drive home
Route A
Inform if Expected U@lity>Cost Agent
(Observe/Help)
Recipient Surprise!
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
A New Representa@on: Probabilis@c Recipe Trees (Kamar, 2010)
May 20, 2015 Slide 14
Expected Duration:
19 min
min 10 min 5 min 3 min 10 min 14 min 2 min 2
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Inform Decisions
May 20, 2015 Ece Kamar - Harvard University
Slide 15
Expected Duration: 47.8 min
min 5 min 3 min 10 min 14 min 2 min 242 min
Route A
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Inform Decisions
May 20, 2015 Ece Kamar - Harvard University
Slide 16
Expected Duration:
28 min
min 10 min 14 min 2 min 2
0.11.0 0.0 0.0
Route A
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Interrupt to Inform? EU( )
Updated Plan
EU( )
Original Plan
>
Communicate if the gain is bigger than the cost of communicaEon and interrupEon
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
The Vision and the Challenges } “Turing Challenge”: Can a computer (agent) team-‐member behave, over the long-‐term, in such a way that people on the team will not no2ce it’s not human or think it’s stupid.
} Test Environment: Health Care Coordina2on } Vision: Care Augmen2ng SoQware Partners (CASPERs)
} AI scienEfic challenges (MAS, AI) arise from } demands of coordinaEng care } needs for improving communicaEon between paEents and medical providers
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Parents
Primary Care
Provider
Physical Therapist
Neurologist
School nurse
Camp counselor
Health aide
Teacher
Speech Therapist
GI
The Care for Children with Complex Chronic Condi@ons (Amir, Grosz, Law & Stern, AAMAS 2013)
Project in collabora2on with the Complex Primary Care Clinic, Stanford University
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Parents
Primary Care
Provider
Physical Therapist
Neurologist
School nurse
Camp counselor
Health aide
Teacher
Speech Therapist
GI
The Care for Children with Complex Chronic Condi@ons (Amir, Grosz, Law & Stern, AAMAS 2013)
The Problem: care for children with complex conditions is poorly coordinated,
leading to unmet health needs and preventable health care crises
Project in collabora2on with the Complex Primary Care Clinic, Stanford University
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Team-‐Based Care Plans for Improved Coordina@on (LPFCH, 2014)
Goals Actions Caregivers Move to oral feeds
• Improve mouth muscle tone • Adjust formula for weight
gain
PCP, GI, OT, nutritionist
Start daycare
• Minimize need for tube feeds
• Assess therapy needs
Parents, PCP, nutritionist, home nurse
Go on family trip
• Arrange portable equipment • Arrange funding and
transportation
Parents, PCP, PT, social worker
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Team-‐Based Care Plans for Improved Coordina@on (LPFCH, 2014)
Goals Actions Caregivers Move to oral feeds
• Improve mouth muscle tone • Adjust formula for weight
gain
PCP, GI, OT, nutritionist
Start daycare
• Minimize need for tube feeds
• Assess therapy needs
Parents, PCP, nutritionist, home nurse
Go on family trip
• Arrange portable equipment • Arrange funding and
transportation
Parents, PCP, PT, social worker
Rationale: everybody “on the same page” In practice: rarely deployed or consulted
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Study of Complex Care Teams (Amir, Grosz, Gajos, Swenson, and Sanders, 2015)
} “From Care Plans to Care Coordina@on: Opportuni@es for Computer Support of Teamwork in Complex Healthcare”
} Interviews and observaEons of team members: } Parents (13) } Primary care providers (4) } Specialists (4) } Therapists (8) } Care coordinator (1) } Program directors (2) } Family services coordinator (1) } Social worker (1)
} Analyzed using affinity diagramming
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Barriers to Effec@ve Care Plan Use: Complex Teamwork in Complex Care
“FLECS” teamwork characterisEcs: } Flat-‐structure of team } Loosely coupled plans and acEviEes } Extended duraEon of plans } ConEnual distributed revision of plans } Syncopated Eme scales
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Flat Structure No single person in charge:
“We have different goals for different specialists; it is hard to keep track.” (parent)
Need to priori2ze goals because “everyone wants to work on everything.” (parent)
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Loosely Coupled Ac@vi@es
Loose coupling makes appropriate informa5on sharing hard:
“There isn’t an example when I wasn’t missing informa2on” (specialist)
“We need to relay informa2on back and forth...” (parent)
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Extended Dura@on, Con@nual Distributed Plan Revision
No mechanism to support plan revision: Full-‐team mee2ngs “totally not scalable” (specialist) “All the status chats have to be provider ini2ated, and so if you don’t remember to do it or there’s no one coordina2ng it, it’s like where is it going, where do you even look for it?” (specialist)
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Syncopated Time Scales
Different frequencies of seeing the pa5ent } Primary care providers: 3 to 4 2mes a year } Specialists: 2 to 3 2me a year } Therapists: 1 to 3 2mes a week
Different informa5on needs: “A doctor asks if she is walking and expects a yes/no answer; a physical therapist will ask how she is walking and how much progress she has made.” (parent)
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Team-‐Based Care Plans: Ideal vs. Reality
} Principles for successful care plan use (LPFCH, 2014): } “The plan of care is systema2zed as a common, shared document; it is used consistently by every provider…”
} “The team monitors progress against goals, provides feedback and adjusts the plan of care on an ongoing basis…”
} “Family-‐centered care teams can access the informa5on they need to make shared, informed decisions.”
} Principles are largely not realized in current pracEce; root cause: FLECS nature of teamwork.
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Team-‐Based Care Plans: Ideal vs. Reality
} Principles for successful care plan use (LPFCH, 2014): } “The plan of care is systema2zed as a common, shared document; it is used consistently by every provider…”
} “The team monitors progress against goals, provides feedback and adjusts the plan of care on an ongoing basis…”
} “Family-‐centered care teams can access the informa5on they need to make shared, informed decisions.”
} Principles are largely not realized in current pracEce; root cause: FLECS nature of teamwork.
Research focus: Develop foundations and technology to better support complex
FLECS teamwork.
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Founda@ons for Design of Systems to Support Complex Care Teams
SharedPlans (Grosz & Kraus 1996) : A computaEonal theory of collaboraEon “..the capabili2es needed for collabora2on cannot be patched on but must be designed in from the start. "
SharedPlans Representa@on
adjust formula
funding & transportaEon
follow family prioriEes
move to oral feeds
go on family trip
improve mouth muscle tone
{parents, primary care provider, specialists, therapists, community members}
{primary care provider, physical therapist, social worker}
{primary care provider, gastroenterologist, occupa2onal therapist, nutri2onist}
arrange equipment {…} {…} {…} {…}
SharedPlans Representa@on
adjust formula
funding & transportaEon
follow family prioriEes
move to oral feeds
go on family trip
improve mouth muscle tone
{parents, primary care provider, specialists, therapists, community members}
{primary care provider, physical therapist, social worker}
{primary care provider, gastroenterologist, occupa2onal therapist, nutri2onist}
arrange equipment {…} {…} {…} {…}
adjust formula
arrange equipment
go on family trip
move to oral feeds
SharedPlans Representation
funding & transportaEon
follow family prioriEes
{parents, primary care provider, specialists, therapists, community members}
{primary care provider, physical therapist, social worker}
{primary care provider, gastroenterologist, occupa2onal therapist, nutri2onist}
{…} {…} {…} {…} improve mouth muscle tone
improve mouth muscle tone
SharedPlans Representation
adjust formula
arrange equipment
go on family trip
move to oral feeds
funding & transportaEon
follow family prioriEes
{parents, primary care provider, specialists, therapists, community members}
{primary care provider, physical therapist, social worker}
{…} {…} {…} {…}
{primary care provider, gastroenterologist, occupa2onal therapist, nutri2onist}
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Key Elements of SharedPlans Theory } Consensus on recipe:
} Recipes may be parEal and evolve over Eme:
} Team members commit to performance of group acEvity and to each others’ success:
(Grosz&Kraus, 1996,1999; Hunsberger, 1999; Grosz&Hunsberger, 2006 )
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Key Elements of SharedPlans Theory } Consensus on recipe:
} Support for providers establishing agreement on high-‐level approach, establishing mutual belief.
} Recipes may be parEal and evolve over Eme: } Support dynamically evolving plans.
} Team members commit to performance of group acEvity and to each others’ success: } Support communicaEon and coordinaEon at appropriate levels and Emes.
(Grosz&Kraus, 1996,1999; Hunsberger, 1999; Grosz&Hunsberger, 2006 )
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Key Elements of SharedPlans Theory } Consensus on recipe:
} Support for providers establishing agreement on high-‐level approach, establishing mutual belief.
} Recipes may be parEal and evolve over Eme: } Support dynamically evolving plans.
} Team members commit to performance of group acEvity and to each others’ success: } Support communicaEon and coordinaEon at appropriate levels and Emes. Key capability: informaEon sharing without informaEon
overload.
(Grosz&Kraus, 1996,1999; Hunsberger, 1999; Grosz&Hunsberger, 2006 )
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Key Roles for Technology for Suppor@ng Complex Care Teams } Make the care plan “ever present”
} Support plan revision and expansion
} Support efficient informaEon sharing
Challenges:
} EliciEng plans
} Inferring context in plan
} Reasoning about informaEon sharing
adjust formula
Agreement on High-Level Approach, Mutual Beliefs
funding & transportaEon
follow family prioriEes
move to oral feeds
go on family trip
improve mouth muscle tone
{parents, primary care provider, specialists, therapists, community members}
{primary care provider, physical therapist, social worker}
{primary care provider, gastroenterologist, occupa2onal therapist, nutri2onist}
arrange equipment {…} {…} {…} {…}
Dynamically Evolving Plans
… … … …
funding & transportaEon
follow family prioriEes
move to oral feeds
go on family trip
improve mouth muscle tone
adjust formula
arrange equipment
{parents, primary care provider, specialists, therapists, community members}
{primary care provider, physical therapist, social worker}
{primary care provider, gastroenterologist, occupa2onal therapist, nutri2onist}
{…} {…} {…} {…}
adjust formula
… … … …
funding & transportaEon
follow family prioriEes
move to oral feeds
go on family trip
improve mouth muscle tone
{parents, primary care provider, specialists, therapists, community members}
{primary care provider, physical therapist, social worker}
{primary care provider, gastroenterologist, occupa2onal therapist, nutri2onist}
arrange equipment
Communication and Coordination
{…} {…} {…} {…}
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Ongoing Work: GoalKeeper (Ofra Amir)
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Parents
PCP
Physical Therapist
GI
School nurse
Camp counselor
Health aide
Teacher
Speech Therapist
Neurologist
Beyond Health Care: Plan Coordina@on
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Victims
Police
Fire Fighter
National Guard
Politician
Business man
ICU
NGOs Construction
Coordina@ng Rescue and Rebuilding
Psychologist
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Ongoing Work: Suppor@ng Collabora@ve Wri@ng
“Deploying AI Methods to Support Collabora2ve Wri2ng: a Preliminary
Inves2ga2on”, Gehrmann, Urke, Amir and Grosz, CHI 2015
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
No man is an island, en@re of itself... (John Donne, 1624)
computer
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Giving Turing the Last Word: Fundamental Knowledge } “The whole thinking process is sEll rather mysterious to us, but I believe the ahempt to make a thinking machine will help us greatly in finding out how we think ourselves.”
Typescript, BBC Third Programme 15 May 1951; reprinted in Shieber, The Turing Test: Verbal Behavior as the Hallmark of Intelligence, 2004
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
References SharedPlans: Barbara J. Grosz and Luke Hunsberger, 2006. The Dynamics of IntenEons in CollaboraEve IntenEonality. In Cogni2ve Systems Research (special issue on Cogni2on, Joint Ac2on and Collec2ve Inten2onality), 7,2-‐3.
Luke Hunsberger. 1999. “Making SharedPlans More Concise and Easier to Reason About.” In Intelligent Agents V: Agents Theories, Architectures, and Languages, pp. 81-‐98. Springer Berlin Heidelberg. Barbara Grosz and Sarit Kraus. 1999. The EvoluEon of SharedPlans. Founda2ons of Ra2onal Agencies, A. Rao and M. Wooldridge, eds., Kluwer Academic Press, pp. 227-‐262.
Barbara J. Grosz and Sarit Kraus. 1996. CollaboraEve Plans for Complex Group AcEon. In Ar2ficial Intelligence 86(2), pp. 269-‐357. Awarded IFAAMAS Influen2al Paper Award, 2007.
SharedPlans for dialogue: Karen E. Lochbaum. 1998. A collaboraEve planning model of intenEonal structure. Computa2onal Linguis2cs. 24, 4 (December 1998), 525-‐572.
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
References Collabora@ve interfaces: S-‐CASTS: Ya'akov Gal, Swapna Reddy, Stuart Shieber, Andee Rubin, and Barbara Grosz. 2012. Plan RecogniEon in Exploratory Domains. Ar2ficial Intelligence. 176(1): pp. 2270—2290. WAID: Tamara Babaian, Barbara J. Grosz and Stuart M. Shieber. 2002 A Writer’s CollaboraEve Aid. Proceedings of the Intelligent User Interfaces Conference (IUI-‐2002), San Francisco, CA. January 13-‐16. ACM Press. pp. 7-‐14. Colored Trails MAS Testbed: Ya’akov Gal, Barbara Grosz, Sarit Kraus, Avi Pfeffer, Stuart Shieber. 2010. Agent Decision-‐Making in Open Mixed Networks. Ar2ficial Intelligence, 174(18): pp. 1460-‐1480. Interrup@on Management: Ece Kamar, Kobi Gal, and Barbara Grosz. 2013. Modeling InformaEon Exchange OpportuniEes for EffecEve Human-‐computer Teamwork. Ar2ficial Intelligence 195:528–550. Ece Kamar, Ya'akov Gal, and Barbara J. Grosz. 2009. IncorporaEng helpful behavior into collaboraEve planning. In Proceedings of The 8th Interna2onal Conference on Autonomous Agents and Mul2agent Systems -‐ Volume 2 (AAMAS '09), Vol. 2. InternaEonal FoundaEon for Autonomous Agents and MulEagent Systems, Richland, SC, pp. 875-‐882.
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
References Informa@on Sharing for Care Coordina@on and Collabora@ve Work: Ofra Amir, Barbara Grosz, Krzysztof Gajos, Sonja Swenson, and Lee Sanders. 2015. From Care Plans to Care CoordinaEon: OpportuniEes for Computer Support of Teamwork in Complex Healthcare.” In Proceedings of the 33rd Annual ACM Conference Extended Abstracts on Human Factors in Compu2ng Systems. Seoul, South Korea. April 18-‐23, 2015. pp. 1419-‐1428 Ofra Amir, Barbara J. Grosz, Edith Law, and Roni Stern. 2013. CollaboraEve Health Care Plan Support. Proceedings of the 12th Interna2onal Conference on Autonomous Agents and Mul2agent Systems (AAMAS 2013), Ito, Jonker, Gini, and Shehory (eds.). pp. 793-‐796. Second Prize, Compu2ng Community Consor2um/AAMAS2013 Challenges and Visions Track SebasEan Gehrmann, Lauren Urke, Ofra Amir, and Barbara J Grosz. 2015. Deploying AI Methods to Support CollaboraEve WriEng: A Preliminary InvesEgaEon. In Proceedings of the 33rd Annual ACM Conference Extended Abstracts on Human Factors in Compu2ng Systems. Seoul, South Korea. April 18-‐23, 2015. pp. 917-‐922.
Barbara J. Grosz Smart Enough To Be On My Team
IBM CSIG May 2015
Thanks!
Collaborators: Ofra Amir, Krzysztof Gajos Harvard SEAS; Sonja Swenson, Lee Sanders Stanford University Medical School. Research supported in part by Nuance Foundation.
QuesEons?