iahr2015 development of coastal-fews - early warning system tool development, kleermaeker,...
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Development of Coastal-FEWS: Early Warning System tool development
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Simone De Kleermaeker Wiebke S. Jager Ap van Dongeren Tom Bogaard
Development of Coastal-FEWS: Early Warning System tool development
• Increasing coastal zone risks • Early Warning Systems and DSS • Delft-FEWS • EWS Storm Surge Dutch North Sea • Application – RISC KIT case study sites • Conclusions
Increasing coastal zone risks • Recent and historic low-frequency, high-impact events
demonstrated coastal risk (Xynthia, Europe, 2010; Katrina, USA, 2005)
• This is only to get worse, because risk (prob. hazard * consequences) is increasing due to (IPCC, 2014) 1. Increase in hazard intensity/frequency due to:
• increased winds, extremes in rainfall, sea level rise 2. Increase in consequences due to increased coastal
development
Risk reduction through adaptation
Adaptation requires a • re-evaluation of coastal disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies
and • a new mix of prevention (e.g. dike protection), mitigation (e.g. limiting construction in flood-prone areas) and preparedness (e.g. Early warning systems, EWS) measures.
RISC-KIT Project • EU – funded project • Demonstrate robustness and applicability of coastal EWS/DSS • Study sites on the coast of all EU regional seas • Generic Tools, achieve common functionality
Impact – oriented Early Warning and DSS
• a free-ware system to predict hazard intensities using coupled hydro-meteo and morphological models and
• a Bayesian-based Decision Support System (DSS) which integrates hazards and socio-economic and environmental consequences (expected impact)
• Basis for the model train is Delft-FEWS software
What is Delft-FEWS?
Data Hydraulic Models Forecasts & warnings
Observations and Meteo input
Wave, flow and morphological models
Visualization, output to DSS
Modular Toolbox
w ebedits
…
…
Delft3D
Sobek
Mike11
…sc
enar
io
archie
fperformance
interpolation
…
web
files
user
JDBC
statistics
….
files
…
Expo
rt
Import
Transformations
Gen.Adapter
• Delft-FEWS provides a generic functionality (modules) which can easily be configured and organized for specific applications (processing data, running models, …).
• Platform has been
expanded for coastal and flash flood applications.
• Coastal FEWS freeware has been made available via the project website.
EWS Storm Surge Dutch North Sea Wind & Pressure
Swan DCSMv6 North Sea
Model
Waqua DCSMv6 North
Sea Model
Swan DCSMv6 ZuNov4
Water levels
Hirlam Meteo Forecast
Levels & Spectra
Forecast
Waqua DCSMv6 ZuNov4
Model output + Expert Judgement
EWS Storm Surge Dutch North Sea
Application at 11 case study sites
• 10 Located on all EU regional seas ()
• One site in Bangladesh by WMO
• Diversity of geomorphic settings
Ria Formosa (Portugal)
FEWS
Delft3D model for gulf of
Cadiz
Water levels
Wave Spectra
SWAN model of Gulf of
Cadiz
SWAN model of Ancao Peninsula
Delft3D model for Ria
Formosa
XBEACH model for
Praia de Faro
Water levels
Just Tidal Constituents
Wave Spectra at boundaries
(LIANSS)
Wind/pressure fields (IPMA, MeteoGalicia)
Levels & Spectra
XBEACH output
Conclusions • EWS have successfully been set up for the case study sites • Model adapters have been developed to connect to Delft-
FEWS • Bayesian Network can be fed and accessed by Delft-FEWS • Resulting information integrated in the Delft-FEWS Platform • Coastal FEWS freeware has been made available via the
project website: http://www.risckit.eu/
Next steps • Application of the systems • Further establish the link between the Bayesian Network and
the EWS.