iaea rds 1 - 32 - publications

INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCYVIENNA

ISBN 978-92-0-133510-4ISSN 1011-2642 @

REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 12012 Edition

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear PowerEstimatesfor the Periodup to 2050

REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1

energy, electricity and nuclear power estimates for the period up to 2050

2012 Edition

INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCYVIENNA, 2012

ENERGY, ELECTRICITY AND NuCLEAR pOwER ESTIMATES FOR ThE pERIOD up TO 2050

IAEA-RDS-1/32ISBN 978–92–0–133510–4

ISSN 1011–2642

printed by the IAEA in AustriaAugust 2012

contents

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Grouping of countries and areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Table 1. Nuclear power reactors in the world (end of 2011) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Figure 1. Nuclear share of total electricity generation in 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Table 2. Number of countries with nuclear power reactors in operation or under construction (end of 2011) . . . . . . . . . 15Table 3. Estimates of total and nuclear electrical generating capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Figure 2. Total and nuclear electrical generating capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Table 4. Estimates of total electricity generation and contribution by nuclear power . . . . . . . 21Figure 3. percentage of electricity supplied by nuclear power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22Table 5. Estimates of total energy requirement (EJ), percentage used for electricity generation, and percentage supplied by nuclear energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Figure 4. Estimates of total energy requirement . . . . . 26Table 6. Total energy requirement (EJ) by type of fuel in 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Figure 5. Total energy requirement by fuel type in 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Figure 6. Breakdown of world total energy requirement during the period 1970–2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Table 7. Fuel shares (%) of total energy requirement in 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Table 8. Fuel use (EJ) for electricity generation by type of fuel in 2011 . . . . . . . . 36Table 9. percentage contribution of each fuel type to electricity generation in 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Table 10. Estimates of population growth by region . . 39Figure 7. population estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40Table 11. Estimates of total energy and electricity requirement per capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

Figure 8. Total energy requirement per capita . . . . . . . 44Figure 9. Total electricity requirement per capita . . . . . 46Table 12. Average annual growth rates during the period 2001–2011 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49Figure 10. Average annual growth rates during the period 2001–2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Table 13. Estimates of average annual

growth rates during the period 2011–2030 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

5

introductionReference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual

publication — currently in its thirty-second edition — containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050.

RDS-1 starts with a summary of the situation of nuclear power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2011. The data on nuclear power presented in Tables 1 and 2 are based on actual statistical data collected by the IAEA’s power Reactor Information System (pRIS). however, energy and electricity data for 2011 are estimated, as the latest information available from the united Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2009 only. population data originate from the world population prospects (2010 revision), published by the population Division of the united Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2011 values again are estimates.

As in previous editions, projections of future energy and electricity demand and the role of nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the inherent uncertainties involved in projecting trends. The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review.

Many international, national and private organizations routinely engage in energy demand and supply projections, including nuclear power. These projections are based on a multitude of different assumptions and aggregating procedures, which make a straightforward comparison and synthesis very difficult. The basic differences refer to such fundamental input assumptions as:

• Economic growth;• Correlation of economic growth and energy use;• Technology performance and costs;• Energy resource availability and future fuel prices;• Energy policy and physical, environmental and

economic constraints.

The projections presented in this publication are based on a compromise between:

• National projections supplied by each country for a recent OECD/NEA study;

6

• Indicators of development published by the world Bank in its world Development Indicators;

• Global and regional energy, electricity and nuclear power projections made by other international organizations.

More specifically, the estimates of future nuclear generating capacity presented in Table 3 are derived from a country by country ‘bottom up’ approach. They are established by a group of experts participating each year in the IAEA’s consultancy on Nuclear Capacity projections and based upon a review of nuclear power projects and programmes in Member States. The experts consider all the operating reactors, possible licence renewals, planned shutdowns and plausible construction projects foreseen for the next several decades. They build the projections project by project by assessing the plausibility of each in light of, first, the low projection’s assumptions and, second, the high projection’s assumptions.

The low and high estimates reflect contrasting, but not extreme, underlying assumptions on the different driving factors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment. These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary from country to country. The estimates presented provide a plausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region and worldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor to reflect the whole range of possible futures from the lowest to the highest feasible.

The low case represents expectations about the future if current trends continued and there were few changes in policies affecting nuclear power other than those already in the pipeline. This case was explicitly designed to produce a ‘conservative but plausible’ set of projections. Additionally, the low case did not automatically assume that targets for nuclear power growth in a particular country would necessarily be achieved. These assumptions are relaxed in the high case.

The high case projections are much more optimistic, but still plausible and technically feasible. The high case assumes that the current financial and economic crises will be overcome in the not too distant future and past rates of economic growth and electricity demand, especially in the Far East, would essentially resume. In addition, the high

7

case assumes the implementation of stringent policies globally targeted at mitigating climate change.

Developing projections in 2012 remained challenging given that policy responses to the Fukushima accident remain to be determined in some regions, notably in the Far East. Since this region is anticipated to have the greatest growth in nuclear capacity to 2030, policy responses could yet have a significant impact on the scenario projections. To a lesser degree, the same is true in other regions with the exception, perhaps, of western Europe. Once greater certainty about the causes, impacts, policy revisions and regulatory responses is established, these projections will likely need to be refined. There is considerable uncertainty about the actual impacts of the Fukushima accident in some regions. As time goes by, this uncertainty should hopefully be reduced.

Governments have asked a number of utilities to suspend operation of specific plants in response to the Fukushima accident. In this case, it should be kept in mind that there is a distinction between effective capacity (supplying electricity to the grid) and installed nominal capacity (connected to the grid but not supplying electricity) that may not be recognized in the published data.

The on-going financial crisis is still expected to present challenges in nuclear energy development. The assumption adopted by the expert group was that the current economic challenges, in addition to the Fukushima accident, are expected to delay, temporarily, deployment of some nuclear power plants. Moreover, the low price of natural gas and reduced demand for electricity are expected to impact nuclear growth prospects in some regions of the developed world. however, the underlying fundamentals of population growth and demand for electricity in the developing world, as well as climate change concerns, security of energy supply and price volatility for other fuels continue to point to nuclear generating capacity playing an important role in the energy mix in the longer term.

Accordingly to the 2012 projections, the world’s installed nuclear power capacity expanded from 369 gigawatts (Gw(e)) as of end of 2011 to 456 Gw(e) in 2030, i.e. a decrease of 9% compared with last years’s projection. In the updated high projection, it grows to 740 Gw(e) in 2030,

8

energy units

1 Mw(e) = 106 watts (electrical)1 Gw(e) = 1000 Mw(e) = 109 watts (electrical)1 GJ = 1 gigajoule = 109 joules1 EJ = 1 exajoule = 1018 joules1 EJ = 23.9 megatonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe)1 Tw·h = 1 terawatt-hour = 109 kw·h = 3.6 × 10–3 EJ

down by less than 1% from last year, reflecting continued interest in nuclear power in some regions, particularly in the developing world. Some of the effects of the Fukushima accident may include earlier than anticipated retirements, delayed or possibly cancelled new builds and increased costs owing to changing regulatory requirements.

with respect to projections to 2050, assumptions were made about the general rate of development and retirements. Given all of the uncertainties, these estimates should be considered as suggestive of the actual outcomes, based on currently anticipated trends.

The data on electricity produced by nuclear power plants are converted to joules based on the average efficiency of a nuclear power plant, i.e. 33%; data on electricity generated by geothermal heat are converted to joules based on the average efficiency of a geothermal power plant, i.e. 10%. The conversion to joules of electricity generated by hydropower or by other non-thermal sources such as wind, tide and solar is based on the energy content of the electricity generated (the equivalent of assuming 100% efficiency).

The total energy requirement has been calculated by summing the primary energy production, the net energy trade minus changes in international bunkers and domestic stocks.

The values shown in Table 9 refer to primary energy used for the generation of electricity. Owing to differences in conversion efficiencies, the percentage values are different from the shares of electricity generation presented in Tables 1 and 5.

9

N o r t h A m e r i c a C a n a d a * U n i t e d S t a t e s o f A m e r i c a *

L a t i n A m e r i c a A n g u i l l a H a i t i * A n t i g u a a n d B a r b u d a H o n d u r a s * A r g e n t i n a * J a m a i c a * A r u b a M a r t i n i q u e B a h a m a s M e x i c o * B a r b a d o s M o n t s e r r a t B e l i z e N e t h e r l a n d s A n t i l l e s B e r m u d a N i c a r a g u a * B o l i v i a * P a n a m a * B r a z i l * P a r a g u a y * C a y m a n I s l a n d s P e r u * C h i l e * P u e r t o R i c o C o l o m b i a * S. Georgia & S. Sandwich Islands C o s t a R i c a * S a i n t K i t t s a n d N e v i s C u b a * S a i n t L u c i a D o m i n i c a* S a i n t P i e r r e a n d M i q u e l o n D o m i n i c a n R e p u b l i c * S a i n t V i n c e n t & t h e G r e n a d i n e s E c u a d o r * S u r i n a m e E l S a l v a d o r * T r i n i d a d a n d T o b a g o G r e n a d a T u r k s a n d C a i c o s I s l a n d s G u a d e l o u p e U r u g u a y * G u a t e m a l a * V e n e z u e l a * G u y a n a

W e s t e r n E u r o p e A n d o r r a L i e c h t e n s t e i n * A u s t r i a * L u x e m b o u r g * B e l g i u m * M a l t a * C y p r u s * M o n a c o * D e n m a r k * N e t h e r l a n d s * F i n l a n d * N o r w a y * F r a n c e * P o r t u g a l * G e r m a n y * S a n M a r i n o G i b r a l t a r S p a i n * G r e e c e * S v a l b a r d a n d J a n M a y e n I s l a n d s G r e e n l a n d S w e d e n * H o l y S e e * S w i t z e r l a n d * I c e l a n d * T u r k e y * I r e l a n d * U n i t e d K i n g d o m * I t a l y *

G R O U P I N G O F C O U N T R I E S A N D A R E A S

T h e c o u n t r i e s a n d g e o g r a p h i c a l a r e a s i n c l u d e d i n e a c h g r o u p i n g a r e l i s t e d b e l o w

( I A E A M e m b e r S t a t e s a r e d e n o t e d b y a n a s t e r i s k )

*

10

AfricaAlgeria* Malawi*Angola* Mali*Benin* Mauritania*Botswana* Mauritius*Burkina Faso* MayotteBurundii* Morocco*Cameroo o n * Mozambique*Cape Verdee Namibia*Central Africaa n Republic* Niger*Chad Nigeria*Comoros ReunionCongoo* RwandaCôte d'II voire* Saint HelenaDemocratic Rep. of the Congo* Sao Tome and PrincipeDjibouti Senegal*Egypt* Seychelles*Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone*Eritrea* SomaliaEthiopia* South Africa*Gabon* Sudan*Gambia SwazilandGhana* TogoGuinea Tunisia*Guinea-Bissau Uganda*Kenya* United Republic of Tanzania*Lesotho* Western SaharaLiberia* Zambia*Libya* Zimbabwe*Madagascar*

Eastern EuropeAlbania* Lithuania*Armenia* Montenegro*

Poland*Azerbaijan*Republic of Moldova*Belarus*Romania*Bosnia and Herzegovina*Russian Federation*Bulgaria*Serbia*Croatia*Slovakia*Czech Republic*Slovenia*Estonia*Tajikistan*Georgia*The Frmr. Yug. Rep. of Macedonia*Hungary*TurkmenistanKazakhstan*Ukraine*Kyrgyzstan*Uzbekistan*Latvia*

*

11

M i d d l e E a s t a n d S o u t h A s i a A f g h a n i s t a n * K u w a i t * B a h r a i n* L e b a n o n * B a n g l a d e s h * N e p a l* B h u t a n O m a n* B r i t i s h I n d i a n O c e a n T e r r i t o r y P a k i s t a n * C o c o s ( K e e l i n g ) I s l a n d s Q a t a r * F r e n c h S o u t h e r n T e r r i t o r i e s S a u d i A r a b i a * Heard Island & McDonald Islands S r i L a n k a * I n d i a * S y r i a n A r a b R e p u b l i c * I r a n , I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c o f * T . T . U . T . J o f T . P a l e s t i n i a n A . I r a q * U n i t e d A r a b E m i r a t e s * I s r a e l * Y e m e n * J o r d a n *

S o u t h E a s t A s i a a n d t h e P a c i f i c A u s t r a l i a *

N o r t h e r n M a r i a n a I s l a n d s

B r u n e i D a r u s s a l a m P a l a u* C o o k I s l a n d s P a p u a N e w G u i n e a* F i j i P i t c a i r n I s l a n d s I n d o n e s i a * S a m o a K i r i b a t i S i n g a p o r e * M a l a y s i a * S o l o m o n I s l a n d s M a l d i v e s T h a i l a n d * M a r s h a l l I s l a n d s * T i m o r L e s t e M i c r o n e s i a ( F e d . S t a t e s o f ) T o k e l a u M y a n m a r *

T u v a l u N e w Z e a l a n d * U S M i n o r O u t l y i n g I s l a n d s N i u e V a n u a t u N o r f o l k I s l a n d s W a l l i s a n d F u t u n a I s l a n d s

F a r E a s t C a m b o d i a* M a c a u , C h i n a C h i n a * M o n g o l i a * D e m . P . R . o f K o r e a P h i l i p p i n e s * J a p a n * T a i w a n , C h i n a K o r e a , R e p u b l i c o f * V i e t n a m * L a o P . D . R *.

Tonga

12

TABL

E 1.

NU

CLEA

R PO

WER

REA

CTO

RS IN

TH

E W

ORL

D (

end

of 2

011)

Gro

up a

nd C

ount

ry

In O

pera

tion

Und

er C

onst

ruct

ion

Num

ber

of U

nits

Tota

l MW

(e)

Num

ber

of U

nits

Tota

l MW

(e)

Num

ber

of U

nits

Tota

l MW

(e)

TWh

Perc

ent

of

Tota

l Ele

ctri

city

Nor

th A

mer

ica

C

anad

a18

1260

4

4

2726

88.3

15.3

U

nite

d St

ates

of

Amer

ica

104

1014

65

1

1165

790.

4

19

.3

La

tin

Am

eric

a

Arg

enti

na2

935

1

69

2

5.

9

5.

0

Bra

zil

2

18

84

1

1245

14.8

3.2

M

exic

o2

1300

9.3

3.6

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

B

elgi

um7

5927

45.9

54.0

F

inla

nd4

2736

1

16

00

22

.3

31

.6

Fra

nce

58

63

130

1

16

00

42

3.5

77.7

G

erm

any

9

12

068

102.

3

17

.8

Net

herl

ands

1

48

2

3.

9

3.

6

Spa

in8

7567

55.1

19.5

S

wed

en10

9326

58.1

39.6

S

wit

zerl

and

5

32

63

25

.7

40

.9

Uni

ted

King

dom

18

99

53

62

.7

17

.8

Ea

ster

n Eu

rope

A

rmen

ia1

375

2.4

33.2

B

ulga

ria

2

19

06

2

1906

15.3

32.6

C

zech

Rep

ublic

6

37

66

26

.7

33

.0

Hun

gary

4

18

89

14

.7

43

.3

Long

-ter

m S

hut

Dow

n Re

acto

rsEl

ectr

icit

y Su

pplie

d by

Nuc

lear

Pow

er R

eact

ors

in 2

011

13

TABL

E 1.

NU

CLEA

R PO

WER

REA

CTO

RS IN

TH

E W

ORL

D (

end

of 2

011)

Gro

up a

nd C

ount

ry

In O

pera

tion

Und

er C

onst

ruct

ion

Num

ber

of U

nits

Tota

l MW

(e)

Num

ber

of U

nits

Tota

l MW

(e)

Num

ber

of U

nits

Tota

l MW

(e)

TWh

Perc

ent

of

Tota

l Ele

ctri

city

R

oman

ia2

1300

10.8

19.0

R

ussi

an F

eder

atio

n33

2364

3

10

8188

162.

0

17

.6

Slo

vaki

a4

1816

2

78

2

14

.3

54

.0

Slo

veni

a1

688

5.9

41.7

U

krai

ne15

1310

7

2

1900

84.9

47.2

Afr

ica

S

outh

Afr

ica

2

18

30

12

.9

5.

2

M

iddl

e Ea

st a

nd S

outh

Asi

a

Ind

ia20

4391

7

48

24

29

.0

3.

7

Ira

n, Is

lam

ic R

epub

lic o

f1

915

0.1

0.0

P

akis

tan

3

72

5

2

630

3.8

3.8

Far

East

C

hina

16

11

816

26

26

620

82.6

1.9

J

apan

50

44

215

1

24

6

2

2650

156.

2

18

.1

Kor

ea,

Repu

blic

of

21

18

751

5

55

60

14

7.8

34.6

Wor

ld T

otal

(*)

435

3687

91

5

2972

65

61

962

2518

.0

12

.3

Not

es:

(*)

Incl

udin

g th

e fo

llow

ing

data

in T

aiw

an,

Chin

a:

— 6

uni

ts in

ope

rati

on w

ith

tota

l cap

acit

y of

501

8 M

W(e

); 2

uni

ts u

nder

con

stru

ctio

n w

ith

tota

l cap

acit

y of

260

0 M

W(e

);

Long

-ter

m S

hut

Dow

n Re

acto

rsEl

ectr

icit

y Su

pplie

d by

Nuc

lear

Pow

er R

eact

ors

in 2

011

—

40.

4 TW

h of

nuc

lear

ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion,

rep

rese

ntin

g 19

.0%

of

the

tota

l ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ed.

14

Note: the nuclear share of electricity generation in Taiwan, China was 19.0%.

FIGURE 1. NUCLEAR SHARE OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2011

FRANCE

SLOVAKIA

BELGIUM

UKRAINE

HUNGARY

SLOVENIA

SWITZERLAND

SWEDEN

KOREA, REPUBLIC OF

ARMENIA

CZECH REPUBLIC

BULGARIA

FINLAND

SPAIN

USA

ROMANIA

JAPAN

UK

GERMANY

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

CANADA

SOUTH AFRICA

ARGENTINA

PAKISTAN

INDIA

NETHERLANDS

MEXICO

BRAZIL

CHINA

IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF

0 20 40 60 80 100

77.7

54.0

54.0

47.2

43.3

41.7

40.9

39.6

34.6

33.2

33.0

32.6

31.6

19.5

19.3

19.0

18.1

17.8

17.8

17.6

15.3

5.2

5.0

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.2

1.9

0.04

Nuclear Share (%)

15

TABL

E 2.

NU

MBE

R O

F CO

UN

TRIE

S W

ITH

NU

CLEA

R PO

WER

REA

CTO

RS IN

OPE

RATI

ON

OR

UN

DER

CO

NST

RUCT

ION

(en

d of

201

1)

Coun

try

Gro

upN

umbe

r of

Cou

ntri

es in

Gro

upCo

untr

ies

wit

h N

ucle

ar P

ower

Rea

ctor

sIn

Ope

rati

onLo

ng-t

erm

Shu

t D

own

Und

er C

onst

ruct

ion

(1)

Tota

l (2)

Nor

th A

mer

ica

22

11

2

Lati

n Am

eric

a45

32

3

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

299

29

East

ern

Euro

pe27

94

9

Afri

ca57

11

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

253

23

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

29

Far

East

113

13

3

Wor

ld T

otal

225

302

1430

Not

es:

(1)

May

incl

ude

coun

trie

s ha

ving

rea

ctor

s al

read

y in

ope

rati

on.

(2)

Tota

l num

ber

of c

ount

ries

in e

ach

grou

p th

at h

ave

nucl

ear

pow

er r

eact

ors

in o

pera

tion

, or

und

er c

onst

ruct

ion.

17

TABL

E 3.

EST

IMAT

ES O

F TO

TAL

AN

D N

UCL

EAR

ELEC

TRIC

AL

GEN

ERAT

ING

CA

PACI

TY

Coun

try

Gro

up

2011

2020

(a)

2030

(a)

2050

(a)

(b)

Nuc

lear

Nuc

lear

Nuc

lear

Nuc

lear

GW

(e)

%G

W(e

)%

GW

(e)

%G

W(e

)%

Nor

th A

mer

ica

1180

114.

1

9.7

12

78

12

1

9.

4

1351

111

8.2

14

79

65

4.4

13

12

12

3

9.

4

1528

148

9.7

16

5

11

.2

Lati

n Am

eric

a33

0

4.1

1.

2

463

4.

8

1.0

99

7

7

0.

7

1988

13

0.

7

581

6.

1

1.1

13

89

14

1.0

58

2.9

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

873

11

4.5

13

.1

10

25

93

9.1

11

52

70

6.1

16

09

55

3.4

10

71

11

7

10

.9

1406

126

9.0

15

4

9.

5

East

ern

Euro

pe46

0

48.5

10.5

631

65

10.3

69

0

80

11

.5

984

79

8.1

63

1

76

12

.1

872

10

7

12

.3

140

14.2

Afri

ca13

4

1.8

1.

4

354

1.

8

0.5

72

2

5

0.

7

2415

10

0.

4

386

1.

8

0.5

10

01

13

1.3

44

1.8

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

441

6.

0

1.4

55

3

13

2.

3

1454

30

2.

1

5194

50

1.

0

926

22

2.3

18

30

52

2.8

13

9

2.

7

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

190

30

4

491

0.

0

0.0

12

83

5

0.4

32

2

542

6

1.1

20

1.6

Far

East

1604

79.8

5.0

22

00

12

3

5.

6

2789

153

5.5

51

40

19

1

3.

7

2364

162

6.9

33

21

27

4

8.

2

417

8.1

Wor

ld T

otal

Low

Est

imat

e52

10

36

8.8

7.

1

6808

421

6.2

96

45

45

6

4.

7

2009

2

469

2.3

H

igh

Esti

mat

e75

93

50

8

6.

7

1188

9

740

6.2

11

37

5.

7

Not

es:

(a)

Nuc

lear

cap

acit

y es

tim

ates

tak

e in

to a

ccou

nt t

he s

ched

uled

ret

irem

ent

of t

he o

lder

uni

ts a

t th

e en

d of

the

ir li

feti

me.

(b)

Pro

ject

ion

figu

res

for

tota

l ele

ctri

c ge

nera

ting

cap

acit

ies

are

the

arit

hmet

ic a

vera

ge b

etw

een

low

and

hig

h es

tim

ates

.

Tota

l Ele

ct.

GW

(e)

Tota

l Ele

ct.

GW

(e)

Tota

l Ele

ct.

GW

(e)

Tota

l Ele

ct.

GW

(e)

18

North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East

America America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific

FIGURE 2. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL

GENERATING CAPACITY

2011

2020

2030

2050

20

1120

2020

3020

50

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Total Capacity - High Estimate Total Capacity - Low Estimate Nuclear Contribution - High Estimate Nuclear Contribution - Low Estimate

GW

(e)

19



FIGURE 2. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL

GENERATING CAPACITY

2011

2020

2030

2050

20

1120

2020

3020

50

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Total Capacity - High Estimate Total Capacity - Low Estimate Nuclear Contribution - High Estimate Nuclear Contribution - Low Estimate

GW

(e)

21

TABL

E 4.

EST

IMAT

ES O

F TO

TAL

ELEC

TRIC

ITY

GEN

ERAT

ION

AN

D C

ON

TRIB

UTI

ON

BY

NU

CLEA

R PO

WER

(*)

Coun

try

Gro

up

2011

2020

2030

2050

(a)

Nuc

lear

Nuc

lear

Nuc

lear

Nuc

lear

TWh

%TW

h%

TWh

%TW

h%

Nor

th A

mer

ica

4682

878.

8

18.8

4978

951

19.1

52

21

87

1

16

.7

5762

525

9.1

50

11

97

3

19

.4

5336

1163

21.8

13

30

23

.1

Lati

n Am

eric

a13

52

30

.0

2.

2

2066

36

1.

7

3443

56

1.

6

7249

107

1.5

22

63

45

2.0

51

18

11

4

2.

2

464

6.4

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

3116

799.

5

25.7

3564

696

19.5

40

42

55

4

13

.7

5873

442

7.5

37

33

86

8

23

.3

4788

993

20.7

12

38

21

.1

East

ern

Euro

pe18

06

33

7.0

18

.7

21

90

48

2

22

.0

2587

628

24.3

37

37

64

1

17

.1

2271

569

25.1

31

29

84

7

27

.1

1127

30.2

Afri

ca65

1

12.9

2.0

12

10

14

1.1

23

66

40

1.7

87

07

82

0.9

14

26

14

1.0

33

40

10

6

3.

2

358

4.1

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

1841

32.9

1.8

24

25

91

3.8

53

42

23

8

4.

5

1921

2

401

2.1

31

15

15

2

4.

9

6433

409

6.4

11

22

5.

8

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

794

10

51

16

72

0

0.0

44

17

40

0.9

10

96

19

33

47

2.4

16

1

3.

6

Far

East

6200

426.

9

6.9

74

07

91

3

12

.3

9766

1207

12.4

19

923

15

42

7.

7

8615

1207

14.0

12

731

21

57

16

.9

3363

16.9

Wor

ld T

otal

Low

Est

imat

e20

442

25

18.0

12.3

24

891

31

83

12

.8

3444

0

3595

10.4

74

880

37

80

5.

0

Hig

h Es

tim

ate

2753

0

3829

13.9

42

808

58

37

13

.6

9163

12.2

Not

es:

(*)

The

nuc

lear

gen

erat

ion

data

pre

sent

ed in

thi

s ta

ble

and

the

nucl

ear

capa

city

dat

a pr

esen

ted

in T

able

3 c

anno

t be

use

d to

cal

cula

te a

vera

ge a

nnua

l cap

acit

y fa

ctor

s

for

nuc

lear

pla

nts,

as

Tabl

e 3

pres

ents

yea

r-en

d ca

paci

ty a

nd n

ot t

he e

ffec

tive

cap

acit

y av

erag

e ov

er t

he y

ear.

(a)

Pro

ject

ion

figu

res

for

tota

l ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

are

the

arit

hmet

ic a

vera

ge b

etw

een

low

and

hig

h es

tim

ates

.

Tota

l Ele

ct.

TWh

Tota

l Ele

ct.

TWh

Tota

l Ele

ct.

TWh

Tota

l Ele

ct.

TWh

22



FIGURE 3. PERCENTAGE OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLIED BY NUCLEAR POWER

20

1120

2020

3020

50

2011

2020

2030

2050

5

10

15

20

25

30

35 Nuclear Low EstimateNuclear High Estimate

Perc

enta

ge (

%)

23



FIGURE 3. PERCENTAGE OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLIED BY NUCLEAR POWER

20

1120

2020

3020

50

2011

2020

2030

2050

5

10

15

20

25

30

35 Nuclear Low EstimateNuclear High Estimate

Perc

enta

ge (

%)

25

TABL

E 5.

EST

IMAT

ES O

F TO

TAL

ENER

GY

REQ

UIR

EMEN

T (E

J),

PERC

ENTA

GE

USE

D F

OR

ELEC

TRIC

ITY

GEN

ERAT

ION

, AN

D P

ERCE

NTA

GE

SU

PPLI

ED B

Y N

UCL

EAR

ENER

GY

(*)

Coun

try

Gro

up

2011

2020

2030

2050

(a)

Nor

th A

mer

ica

107.

1

40

.5

9.

0

10

7

43

9.7

10

6

45

9.0

10

7

49

5.5

11

4

41

9.3

11

3

44

11.2

13

.1

Lati

n Am

eric

a35

.4

25

.3

0.

9

51

27

0.

8

64

35

1.0

11

1

43

1.3

54

28

0.

9

89

38

1.4

3.

9

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

66.3

38.4

13.2

73

39

10.5

82

38

7.

4

96

47

5.4

75

40

12

.6

89

43

12.1

13

.2

East

ern

Euro

pe58

.7

38

.2

6.

3

65

41

8.

1

67

47

10.2

93

50

8.

2

69

41

9.0

81

47

11

.4

12.2

Afri

ca30

.3

21

.7

0.

5

35

35

0.

4

54

44

0.8

19

8

44

0.7

39

37

0.

4

95

36

1.2

1.

5

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

72.1

33.3

0.5

93

34

1.1

15

7

44

1.7

48

9

51

1.0

11

0

37

1.5

18

3

46

2.4

2.

2

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

26.3

31.2

30

36

41

42

0.0

10

1

45

0.5

33

35

43

47

1.

2

1.6

Far

East

143.

9

41

.8

3.

2

17

7

41

5.6

22

5

43

5.9

38

9

50

4.9

19

4

43

6.8

28

8

44

8.2

8.

4

Wor

ld T

otal

Low

Est

imat

e53

9.9

36.9

5.1

631

38

5.

5

796

43

4.

9

1584

49

2.

9

Hig

h Es

tim

ate

688

39

6.

1

980

43

6.

5

5.7

Not

es:

(*)

Tot

al e

nerg

y re

quir

emen

t is

est

imat

ed a

s pr

oduc

tion

of

prim

ary

ener

gy p

lus

net

trad

e (i

mpo

rt –

exp

ort)

min

us in

tern

atio

nal b

unke

rs a

nd s

tock

cha

nges

. (

a) P

roje

ctio

n fi

gure

s fo

r to

tal e

nerg

y re

quir

emen

t an

d pe

rcen

tage

use

d fo

r el

ectr

icit

y ge

nera

tion

are

the

ari

thm

etic

ave

rage

bet

wee

n lo

w a

nd h

igh

esti

mat

es.

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Requ

irem

ent

% U

sed

for

Elec

t. G

en.

% Su

pplie

dby

Nuc

lear

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Requ

irem

ent

% U

sed

for

Elec

t. G

en.

% Su

pplie

dby

Nuc

lear

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Requ

irem

ent

% U

sed

for

Elec

t. G

en.

% Su

pplie

dby

Nuc

lear

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Requ

irem

ent

% U

sed

for

Elec

t. G

en.

% Su

pplie

dby

Nuc

lear

26



FIGURE 4. ESTIMATES OF ENERGY REQUIREMENT

20

1120

2020

3020

50

2011

2020

2030

2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500 Total - High EstimateTotal – Low EstimateNuclear – High EstimateNuclear - Low Estimate

EJ

27



FIGURE 4. ESTIMATES OF ENERGY REQUIREMENT

20

1120

2020

3020

50

2011

2020

2030

2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500 Total - High EstimateTotal – Low EstimateNuclear – High EstimateNuclear - Low Estimate

EJ

29

TABL

E 6.

TO

TAL

ENER

GY

REQ

UIR

EMEN

T (E

J) B

Y TY

PE O

F FU

EL IN

201

1 (*

) Co

untr

y G

roup

Solid

s (a

)Li

quid

sG

ases

Biom

ass

(b)

Hyd

roN

ucle

arRe

new

able

s (c

)To

tal

Nor

th A

mer

ica

21.4

3

35

.66

30.6

9

6.

07

2.

62

9.

59

0.

99

10

7.06

Lati

n Am

eric

a1.

66

16

.01

8.54

5.64

2.79

0.33

0.38

35.3

5

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

9.05

22.2

5

18

.43

4.76

1.88

8.72

1.16

66.2

5

East

ern

Euro

pe12

.01

12.1

8

28

.53

1.36

1.01

3.68

-0.0

3

58

.74

Afri

ca4.

85

8.

11

4.

34

12

.38

0.39

0.14

0.11

30.3

1

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

17.6

3

23

.83

19.7

6

9.

76

0.

72

0.

36

0.

02

72

.08

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

6.16

9.09

6.10

4.24

0.26

0.42

26.2

7

Far

East

84.0

5

34

.52

12.7

2

4.

12

3.

11

4.

66

0.

70

14

3.89

Wor

ld T

otal

156.

83

16

1.66

129.

11

48

.34

12.7

9

27

.47

3.75

539.

94

Not

es:

(*)

Tota

l ene

rgy

requ

irem

ent

is e

stim

ated

as

prod

ucti

on o

f pr

imar

y en

ergy

plu

s ne

t tr

ade

(im

port

– e

xpor

t) m

inus

inte

rnat

iona

l bun

kers

and

sto

ck c

hang

es.

(a)

Solid

s do

not

incl

ude

com

mer

cial

woo

d.(b

) Th

e co

lum

n he

aded

'Bio

mas

s' in

clud

es c

omm

erci

al w

ood,

com

bust

ible

ren

ewab

les,

was

te a

nd o

ther

bio

mas

s pr

oduc

ts.

(c)

The

colu

mn

head

ed 'R

enew

able

s' in

clud

es g

eoth

erm

al,

win

d, s

olar

, ti

de e

nerg

y an

d ne

t el

ectr

icit

y tr

ade.

30

North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastAmerica America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific

FIGURE 5. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT BY FUEL TYPE IN 2011

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Renewables

Nuclear

Hydro

Biomass

Gases

Liquids

Solids

EJ

31


FIGURE 5. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT BY FUEL TYPE IN 2011

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Renewables

Nuclear

Hydro

Biomass

Gases

Liquids

Solids

EJ

32

FIGURE 6. BREAKDOWN OF WORLD TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT DURING THE PERIOD 1970 — 2011

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Nuclear

Hydro

Biomass

Gases

Liquids

Solids

Year

EJ

33

FIGURE 6. BREAKDOWN OF WORLD TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT DURING THE PERIOD 1970 — 2011

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Nuclear

Hydro

Biomass

Gases

Liquids

Solids

Year

EJ

35

TABL

E 7.

FU

EL S

HA

RES

(%)

OF

ENER

GY

REQ

UIR

EMEN

T IN

201

1 (*

)Co

untr

y G

roup

Solid

s (a

)Li

quid

sG

ases

Biom

ass

(b)

Hyd

roN

ucle

arRe

new

able

s (c

)To

tal

Nor

th A

mer

ica

20.0

2

33

.31

28.6

7

5.

67

2.

45

8.

95

0.

93

10

0.00

Lati

n Am

eric

a4.

69

45

.30

24.1

5

15

.97

7.90

0.93

1.08

100.

00

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

13.6

6

33

.58

27.8

2

7.

19

2.

84

13

.17

1.75

100.

00

East

ern

Euro

pe20

.45

20.7

3

48

.58

2.31

1.72

6.26

-0.0

6

10

0.00

Afri

ca15

.99

26.7

4

14

.31

40.8

5

1.

28

0.

47

0.

36

10

0.00

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

24.4

6

33

.07

27.4

2

13

.53

1.00

0.50

0.03

100.

00

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

23.4

5

34

.60

23.2

1

16

.15

1.01

1.58

100.

00

Far

East

58.4

2

23

.99

8.84

2.86

2.16

3.24

0.49

100.

00

Wor

ld T

otal

29.0

5

29

.94

23.9

1

8.

95

2.

37

5.

09

0.

69

10

0.00

Not

es:

(*)

Tota

l ene

rgy

requ

irem

ent

is e

stim

ated

as

prod

ucti

on o

f pr

imar

y en

ergy

plu

s ne

t tr

ade

(im

port

– e

xpor

t) m

inus

inte

rnat

iona

l bun

kers

and

sto

ck c

hang

es.

(a)

Solid

s do

not

incl

ude

com

mer

cial

woo

d.(b

) Th

e co

lum

n he

aded

'Bio

mas

s' in

clud

es c

omm

erci

al w

ood,

com

bust

ible

ren

ewab

les,

was

te a

nd o

ther

bio

mas

s pr

oduc

ts.

(c)

The

colu

mn

head

ed 'R

enew

able

s' in

clud

es g

eoth

erm

al,

win

d, s

olar

, ti

de e

nerg

y an

d ne

t el

ectr

icit

y tr

ade.

36

TABL

E 8.

FU

EL U

SE (

EJ)

FOR

ELEC

TRIC

ITY

GEN

ERAT

ION

BY

TYPE

OF

FUEL

IN 2

011

Coun

try

Gro

upTh

erm

al (

a)H

ydro

Nuc

lear

Rene

wab

les

(b)

Tota

l

Nor

th A

mer

ica

30.1

9

2.

62

9.

59

0.

99

43

.39

Lati

n Am

eric

a5.

50

2.

79

0.

33

0.

37

8.

99

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

14.3

6

1.

88

8.

72

1.

13

26

.09

East

ern

Euro

pe17

.79

1.01

3.68

0.03

22.5

0

Afri

ca6.

05

0.

39

0.

14

0.

06

6.

64

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

22.9

1

0.

72

0.

36

>

0.01

23.9

9

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

7.52

0.26

0.41

8.20

Far

East

48.5

6

3.

11

4.

66

0.

70

57

.02

Wor

ld T

otal

152.

87

12

.79

27.4

7

3.

69

19

6.83

Not

es:

(a)

The

colu

mn

head

ed 'T

herm

al' i

s th

e to

tal f

or s

olid

s, li

quid

s, g

ases

, bi

omas

s an

d w

aste

.(b

) Th

e co

lum

n he

aded

'Ren

ewab

les'

incl

udes

geo

ther

mal

, w

ind,

sol

ar a

nd t

ide

ener

gy.

37

TABL

E 9.

PER

CEN

TAG

E CO

NTR

IBU

TIO

N O

F EA

CH F

UEL

TYP

E TO

ELE

CTRI

CITY

GEN

ERAT

ION

IN 2

011

Coun

try

Gro

upTh

erm

al (

a)H

ydro

Nuc

lear

Rene

wab

les

(b)

Tota

l

Nor

th A

mer

ica

63.0

9

15

.56

18.7

7

2.

58

10

0.00

Lati

n Am

eric

a39

.51

57.3

9

2.

22

0.

88

10

0.00

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

51.2

7

16

.78

25.6

6

6.

29

10

0.00

East

ern

Euro

pe65

.60

15.5

2

18

.66

0.22

100.

00

Afri

ca80

.93

16.5

4

1.

99

0.

54

10

0.00

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

87.3

2

10

.87

1.79

0.02

100.

00

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

88.4

3

9.

25

2.

31

10

0.00

Far

East

78.0

3

13

.94

6.89

1.14

100.

00

Wor

ld T

otal

68.2

2

17

.38

12.3

2

2.

08

10

0.00

Not

es:

(a)

The

colu

mn

head

ed 'T

herm

al' i

s th

e to

tal f

or s

olid

s, li

quid

s, g

ases

, bi

omas

s an

d w

aste

.(b

) Th

e co

lum

n he

aded

'Ren

ewab

les'

incl

udes

geo

ther

mal

, w

ind,

sol

ar a

nd t

ide

ener

gy.

39

TABL

E 10

. ES

TIM

ATES

OF

POPU

LATI

ON

GRO

WTH

BY

REG

ION

(*)

Coun

try

Gro

up

2011

2020

2030

2050

Mill

ion

Inha

bita

nts

Mill

ion

Inha

bita

nts

Mill

ion

Inha

bita

nts

Mill

ion

Inha

bita

nts

Nor

th A

mer

ica

349

0.89

374

0.79

402

0.71

447

0.53

Lati

n Am

eric

a59

9

1.

16

65

2

0.

96

70

2

0.

73

75

1

0.

34

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

488

0.50

504

0.36

515

0.21

520

0.05

East

ern

Euro

pe39

1

-0

.35

389

-0.0

6

38

1

-0

.21

356

-0.3

4

Afri

ca10

58

2.

54

12

78

2.

13

15

62

2.

03

21

92

1.

71

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

1883

1.86

2119

1.32

2357

1.07

2679

0.64

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

448

1.39

488

0.96

526

0.75

564

0.35

Far

East

1786

0.59

1852

0.40

1878

0.14

1798

-0.2

2

Wor

ld T

otal

7001

1.35

7657

1.00

8321

0.84

9306

0.56

(*)

Proj

ecti

on f

igur

es a

re t

he a

rith

met

ic a

vera

ge b

etw

een

low

and

hig

h es

tim

ates

.

Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

/a)

2000

— 2

011

Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

/a)

2011

— 2

020

Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

/a)

2020

— 2

030

Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

/a)

2030

— 2

050

40



FIGURE 7. POPULATION ESTIMATES

20

1120

2020

3020

50

2011

2020

2030

2050

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Mill

ions

of

Inha

bita

nts

41



FIGURE 7. POPULATION ESTIMATES

20

1120

2020

3020

50

2011

2020

2030

2050

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Mill

ions

of

Inha

bita

nts

43

TABL

E 11

. ES

TIM

ATES

OF

TOTA

L EN

ERG

Y A

ND

ELE

CTRI

CITY

REQ

UIR

EMEN

T PE

R CA

PITA

Coun

try

Gro

up

2011

2020

2030

2050

(*)

Nor

th A

mer

ica

307

13.4

285

—30

5 13

.3

—13

.4

264

—28

1 13

.0

—13

.3

240

±8

12.9

±

0.3

Lati

n Am

eric

a59

2.3

78

—83

3.

2 —

3.5

91

—12

6 4.

9 —

7.3

148

±26

9.

7 ±

2.1

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

136

6.4

144

—14

9 7.

1 —

7.4

159

—17

3 7.

9 —

9.3

185

±12

11

.3

±1.

1

East

ern

Euro

pe15

0

4.

6

16

8 —

177

5.6

—5.

8 17

7 —

214

6.8

—8.

2 26

1 ±

23

10.5

±

1.2

Afri

ca29

0.6

27

—31

0.

9 —

1.1

35

—61

1.

5 —

2.1

90

±32

4.

0 ±

1.5

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

38

1.

0

44

—

52

1.1

—1.

5 67

—

77

2.3

—2.

7 18

3 ±

22

7.2

±0.

9

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

59

1.

8

62

—

67

2.2

—2.

2 78

—

81

3.2

—3.

7 17

8 ±

12

7.8

±0.

9

Far

East

81

3.

5

96

—

105

4.0

—4.

7 12

0 —

153

5.2

—6.

8 21

6 ±

27

11.1

±

1.6

Wor

ld A

vera

ge77

2.9

82

—90

3.

3 —

3.6

96

—11

8 4.

1 —

5.1

170

±24

8.

0 ±

1.3

Not

e: (

*) P

roje

ctio

n fi

gure

s ar

e th

e ar

ithm

etic

ave

rage

bet

wee

n lo

w a

nd h

igh

esti

mat

es w

ith

indi

cate

d ra

nge.

Ener

gy

Requ

irem

ent

per

Capi

ta (

GJ/

cap)

Elec

tric

ity

Requ

irem

ent

per

Capi

ta (

MW

h/ca

p)

Ener

gy

Requ

irem

ent

per

Capi

ta (

GJ/

cap)

Elec

tric

ity

Requ

irem

ent

per

Capi

ta (

MW

h/ca

p)

Ener

gy

Requ

irem

ent

per

Capi

ta (

GJ/

cap)

Elec

tric

ity

Requ

irem

ent

per

Capi

ta (

MW

h/ca

p)

Ener

gy

Requ

irem

ent

per

Capi

ta (

GJ/

cap)

Elec

tric

ity

Requ

irem

ent

per

Capi

ta (

MW

h/ca

p)

44


FIGURE 8. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA

2011

2020

2030

2050

2011

2020

2030

2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

High EstimateLow Estimate

GJ

per

capi

ta

45


FIGURE 8. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA

2011

2020

2030

2050

2011

2020

2030

2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

High EstimateLow Estimate

GJ

per

capi

ta

46


FIGURE 9. TOTAL ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA

2011

2020

2030

2050

2011

2020

2030

2050

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16 High EstimateLow Estimate

MW

h p

er c

apit

a

47


FIGURE 9. TOTAL ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA

2011

2020

2030

2050

2011

2020

2030

2050

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16 High EstimateLow Estimate

MW

h p

er c

apit

a

49

TABL

E 12

. AVE

RAG

E A

NN

UA

L G

ROW

TH R

ATES

DU

RIN

G T

HE

PERI

OD

200

1—20

11 (

%)

Coun

try

Gro

upPo

pula

tion

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Tota

l Ele

ctri

city

Nuc

lear

Ene

rgy

Nuc

lear

Cap

acit

y

Nor

th A

mer

ica

1.0

0.1

0.8

0.4

0.6

Lati

n Am

eric

a1.

3

2.

7

3.

4

0.

3

-0

.2

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

0.6

-0.3

0.8

-0.9

-0.9

East

ern

Euro

pe-0

.4

0.9

1.0

1.7

0.5

Afri

ca2.

8

3.

4

4.

2

-0

.3

0.

0

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

2.0

5.0

5.3

5.5

7.5

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

1.5

3.0

3.5

Far

East

0.6

5.8

7.6

-1.3

2.2

Wor

ld A

vera

ge1.

4

2.

5

3.

3

-0

.1

0.

4

50


FIGURE 10. AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES DURING THE PERIOD 2001—2011

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8 Population

Total Energy

Total Electricity

Nuclear Energy

Annu

al G

row

th R

ate

(%)

51


FIGURE 10. AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES DURING THE PERIOD 2001—2011

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8 Population

Total Energy

Total Electricity

Nuclear Energy

Annu

al G

row

th R

ate

(%)

53

TABL

E 13

. ES

TIM

ATES

OF

AVER

AG

E A

NN

UA

L G

ROW

TH R

ATES

DU

RIN

G T

HE

PERI

OD

201

1—20

30 (

%)

Coun

try

Gro

upPo

pula

tion

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Tota

l Ele

ctri

city

Nuc

lear

Ene

rgy

Nuc

lear

Cap

acit

y

Nor

th A

mer

ica

0.7

0.0

—0.

3

0.6

—0.

7

0.0

—1.

5

-0.2

—

1.4

Lati

n Am

eric

a0.

8

3.

2 —

5.0

5.

0 —

7.3

3.

3 —

7.3

2.

9 —

6.8

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

0.3

1.1

—1.

6

1.4

—2.

3

-1.9

—

1.1

-2

.5

—0.

5

East

ern

Euro

pe-0

.1

0.7

—1.

7

1.9

—2.

9

3.3

—5.

0

2.6

—4.

3

Afri

ca2.

1

3.

1 —

6.2

7.

0 —

9.0

6.

1 —

11.7

5.

5 —

11.1

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

1.2

4.2

—5.

0

5.8

—6.

8

11.0

—

14.2

8.

8 —

12.0

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

0.8

2.4

—2.

6

4.0

—4.

8

Far

East

0.3

2.4

—3.

7

2.4

—3.

9

5.6

—8.

9

3.5

—6.

7

Wor

ld A

vera

ge0.

9

2.

1 —

3.2

2.

8 —

4.0

1.

9 —

4.5

1.

1 —

3.7

@ No. 22

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INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCYVIENNA

ISBN 978-92-0-133510-4ISSN 1011-2642 @

REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 12012 Edition

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear PowerEstimatesfor the Periodup to 2050

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