iaea international atomic energy agency nuclear power – current status and future development...
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IAEAInternational Atomic Energy Agency
Nuclear Power – current status and future development
International Nuclear Conference
"BULGARIAN NUCLEAR ENERGY – NATIONAL, REGIONAL AND WORLD ENERGY SAFETY“
2-4 June 2011
Alexander V. Bychkov
Deputy Director General
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IAEA and Nuclear Power
“The Agency has a key role to play in ensuring that this expansion in nuclear
power takes place in an efficient, responsible and sustainable manner.
“…countries should be able to introduce nuclear power knowledgeably, profitably,
safely and securely. .”
Yukiya Amano
Director General
IAEA
“The Medium Term Strategy 2012-17”
A. “Facilitating access to nuclear power.”
B. “Strengthening promotion of nuclear science, technology, and applications.”
C. “Improving nuclear safety and security.”
D. “Providing effective technical cooperation.”
E. “Strengthening the effectiveness and improving the efficiency of the Agency’s safeguards and other verification activities.”
F. “Providing efficient, innovative management and strategic planning,”
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“Facilitating access to nuclear power”
• The Agency should respond to growing interest in nuclear power, both from newcomers and from countries with existing nuclear power programmes, with all stages of the fuel cycle.
• “Member States will discuss the development of multilateral approaches to the nuclear fuel cycle, including the possibility of creating voluntary mechanisms for assurance of nuclear fuel supply, as well as possible schemes dealing with the back-end of the fuel cycle.”
• The Agency should help Member States: • to build capacities in nuclear science, energy systems analysis,
engineering evaluations, project management and long term planning;
• to support innovations in all areas of nuclear power; and
• to assist throughout all stages of research reactor applications.
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Structure of global electricity supply
Global electricity generation in 2008: 20 180 TWh
Coal41.0%
Oil5.5%
Natural gas21.3%
Nuclear13.5%
Hydro15.9%
Biomass1.3%
Other Ren1.5%
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The Role of Nuclear Power in the Future Energy Mix
• Continued growth in global energy demand
• Energy security
• Price volatility
• Environment protection and climate change
Nuclear power:
• Improved operations, good economics and safety record starting in the early 1990s
In spite of economic crisis:Prospects better than ever since the mid 1990s
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Impact of a doubling of resource prices
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Nuclear Coal Natural gas
US
$ p
er M
Wh
Base costs
Double resource costs
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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
GW
e
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2010 – From rising expectations to renaissance?
• 442 reactors in operation, up from 437 at the end of 2009• 374 GWe total installed capacity, up from 371 GWe at the
end of 2009• 5 new reactors connected to the grid, up from 2 in 2009
and 0 in 2008• 2 reactor shutdowns in 2010, and 2 in 2009• 12 new construction starts; compared to 12 in 2009 and 10
in 2008• 24 of 29 operating countries are considering expansion• 2 “newcomers” ordered their first NPPs
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Distribution of NPPs
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What will the renaissance look like?
• Take place mostly in countries that already have nuclear power• Low projection: ~ 10 new countries by 2030
• High projection: ~25 new countries by 2030
• Just keeps pace with overall electricity growth
• Most of the growth expected in Asia
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Fukushima…
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IAEA Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Safety
• The IAEA and Director General Mr.Amano have proposed that an IAEA Ministerial IAEA Ministerial Conference on Nuclear SafetyConference on Nuclear Safety should take place from June 20 to 24 in Vienna.
• The Conference goals:• to make a preliminary assessment of the
Fukushima Daiichi accident,
• to discuss ways of strengthening emergency preparedness and response
• to review nuclear safety generally.
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IAEA DG Y.Amano about safety:
• Harmonisation of the many valuable safety instruments which we already have
• Regulatory bodies must be further strengthened
• The IAEA system of expert peer review missions could be strengthened and expanded
• Technological developments, such as the introduction of next-generation reactors with stronger reliance on inherent safety features, will be an important driver of enhanced safety in the coming years.
• The IAEA can play a key role in coordinating national efforts to promote ever safer nuclear energy technology.
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Safety First
• Safety First, • when countries review their existing nuclear power plants,
• when they build new plants,
• when engineer innovative new reactors.
• when countries contemplate introducing nuclear technology for the first time and when established users consider expanding their programmes.
• Safety First must also be our guiding principle as we examine ways of strengthening nuclear safety globally.
• The main driver of the enhanced safety is The main driver of the enhanced safety is naturally the technologynaturally the technology
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Nuclear power landscape, May 2011
Operating Considering Expressing interest Negative Delaying
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IAEA – LOW Projection
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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
history
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2008
2009
2010
GW
(e)
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IAEA – HIGH Projection
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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
GW
(e) history
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2010
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World Reactors Distribution
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World Reactor Types
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Proposed Nuclear Power Plants
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The number of planned NPPs for construction is based on the low demand estimate consistent with the strategy of sustaining the nuclear energy utilization at the level of 2007
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Classification of Nuclear Reactors
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Many definitions1. EPRI – Guidelines for developing Third
Generation reactors2. WNA - Definition of a Gen III reactor 04/21/23
Gen I Gen II Gen III Gen IV
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Generation I
Early phase: Shippingport, Dresden, Fermi I, Magnox
Generation II
Most operating reactors:LWR (PWR, BWR), CANDU, VVER, RBMK, AGR
Generation III
Improved designs:ABWR, AP600, System 80+, EPR, EC6
Generation III+
Evolutionary design with improved economics:AP1000, EPR1000, ACR1000
Generation IV
Highly economic, enhanced safety, minimize waste, proliferation resistant
Gen III+
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Summary of Gen 3(+) Attributes
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EPRI:1. Simplification
2. Design Margin
3. Human Factor
4. Safety
5. Design Basis Versus Safety Margin
6. Regulatory Stabilization
7. Standardization
8. Proven Technology
9. Maintainability
10.Constructability
11.Quality Assurance
12.Economics
13.Sabotage Protection and Good Neighbour
WNA :1. Standardized design
2. Simpler and more rugged design
3. Higher availability and longer operating life
4. Reduced possibility of core melt accidents
5. Resistance to serious damage
6. Higher burn-up, Burnable absorbers(“poisons”)
7. Incorporation of passive or inherent safety features
8. Designed for load-following
9. Harmonized licensing as designs are more standardized
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Advanced Reactors
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Country and developer
Reactor
Size MWe gross
Design Progress
Main Features (improved safety in all)
US-Japan (GE-Hitachi, Toshiba)
ABWR 1380 Commercial operation in Japan since 1996-7. In US: NRC certified 1997, FOAKE
- Evolutionary design - More efficient, less waste - Simplified construction (48
months) and operation
USA (Westinghouse)
AP600 AP1000 (PWR)
600 1200
AP600: NRC certified 1999, FOAKE AP1000 NRC certification 2005, under construction
in China, many more planned there Amended US NRC certification expected Sept 2011
- Simplified construction and operation
- 3 years to build - 60-year plant life
Europe (Areva NP)
EPR US-EPR (PWR)
1750
Future French standard French design approval Being built in Finland, France & China Undergoing certification in USA
- Evolutionary design - High fuel efficiency - Flexible operation
USA (GE- Hitachi)
ESBWR 1600 Developed from ABWR, undergoing certification in USA, likely construction there
- Evolutionary design - Short construction time
Japan (utilities, Mitsubishi)
APWR US-APWR EU-APWR
1530 1700 1700
Basic design in progress, planned for Tsuruga US design certification application 2008
- Hybrid safety features - Simplified Construction and
operation
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Advanced Reactors contd.
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Country and developer
Reactor
Size MWe gross
Design Progress
Main Features (improved safety in all)
South Korea (KHNP, derived from
Westinghouse)
APR-1400 (PWR)
1450
Design certification 2003, First units expected to be operating c 2013. Sold to UAE.
- Evolutionary design - Increased reliability - Simplified construction and
operation
Europe (Areva NP)
Kerena (BWR)
1250 Under development, pre-certification in USA
- Innovative design - High fuel efficiency
Russia (Gidropress) VVER-1200
(PWR) 1290
Under construction at Leningrad and Novovoronezh plants
- Evolutionary design - High fuel efficiency 50-year plant life
Canada (AECL) Enhanced CANDU-6
750
Improved model Licensing approval 1997
- Evolutionary design - Flexible fuel requirements
Canada (AECL) ACR 700
1080 Undergoing regulatory pre-project review in Canada
- Evolutionary design - Light water cooling - Low-enriched fuel
China (INET, Chinergy) HTR-PM 2x105
(module)
Demonstration plant due to start building at Shidaowan
- Modular plant, low cost - High temperature - High fuel efficiency
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IAEA Medium Term Strategy on 2012-2017
“Technological breakthroughs and other unanticipated events will require adjustments between 2012 and 2017. The Agency will position itself to take prompt actions to seize the advantages of positive opportunities and minimize the adverse consequences of unexpected negative developments.”
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Fukushima Potential ImpactNPP design impact
Assessment of NPP safety robustness (design margins) Improvements of safety systemsExpanding the DBA list of events and designing against some classes of BDBAs or
combinations of DBAsVarious NPP design changes for operating NPP, particularly for new builds
Operational impactAssessment and improvements of the operating proceduresAssessment and improvements of the SAMGs, and implementation of more rigorous
training
Nuclear energy economy and strategyReview of NPPs design, construction, operation, and energy cost Increase of energy cost in general (from all energy sources – global effect) More stringent requirements for siting of NPPsLonger schedule for obtaining construction licence and EA approvalsWeakening of commercial interest for some reactor types that do not prove to have
enough safety robustness, or which are not adequately protected against severe accidents (or not enough passive features)
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WANO & WENRA - Regulatory Changes
WANO sent a request to all operating NPPs to perform assessment of the station safety robustness against severe accidents
WENRA issued a request to perform a “stress test” for all operating and new build NPPs Emphasize on rare severe accidents with high consequences
Potential regulatory changes More stringent regulatory requirements for new NPP designs More stringent requirements for operating NPPs and those that are planned for life
extension More stringent requirements for NPP operation and maintenance Less tolerance for noncompliance issues in NPP operation Additional activities by the international regulatory agencies (particularly IAEA, WANO
and WENRA) leading to more stringent monitoring and assessment of NPP design and operation (periodic safety assessments)
New regulatory requirements and documentation with higher expectations Reconsidering the event frequency range for DBAs and BDBAs
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WENRA Stress Tests• Prescribed by the WENRA organization to evaluate NPP design
robustness and safety margins against severe accidents
• Licensees requested to conduct stress tests until Sep 2011; European Commission will prepare final report by Dec 2011
• Scope• Initiating events conceivable at the plant state
• Severe earthquake
• Severe flooding
• Other extreme natural events, or combination of the above
• Consequential loss of safety function• Loss of electrical power, including station blackout (SBO)
• Loss of ultimate heat sink (UHS)
• Combination of the above
• Severe accident management issues• Means to protect from and manage loss of core cooling function
• Means to protect from and manage loss of cooling function in the spent fuel pool
• Means to protect from and manage loss of containment integrity2804/21/23
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Conclusions
• Nuclear energy is extensively used in the world today as reliable base-load energy
• Nuclear energy planning at the low level demand involves building of significant number of new NPPs around the world
• Highest rate of new builds is expected in Eastern Asia
• New advanced reactor designs known as Gen 3 and 3+ have emerged in recent years
• As a result of the Fukushima event in Japan, the advanced reactors will be subjected to additional level of scrutiny and design improvements and changes
• As a result of the Fukushima event, the regulatory requirements will become more stringent and demanding
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Thank You for attention